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As the US opens to murky data, stock prices fall along with bond rates. Hopes for rate reductions fade.

As the US opens to murky data, stock prices fall along with bond rates. Hopes for rate reductions fade.
As the US opens to murky data, stock prices fall along with bond rates. Hopes for rate reductions fade.

Investors' hopes of a Federal Reserve rate reduction fell, and U.S. Treasury Yields increased. Officials pointed out a lack in clarity regarding economic data after the U.S. Government ended its longest shutdown ever.

The dollar fell in value despite the hawkish comments of Fed officials, after the House of Representatives passed a bill to reopen U.S. Government late on Wednesday, and President Donald Trump had signed it.

Investors bought equities during recent sessions, anticipating a U.S. reopening following its 43-day record shutdown. The shutdown disrupted the food benefits of millions of Americans, left hundreds and thousands of federal employees unpaid, and caused air traffic to be snarled, while also putting an pause on important economic data releases.

Trump administration officials have shattered hopes of a more accurate view of the U.S. economic situation in the near future.

White House

Kevin Hassett, an economic adviser, told Fox News on Monday that, while the government would have a number on jobs, the data on the U.S. rate of unemployment for October might never be released because the survey is dependent on household surveys, which were not conducted during this government shutdown.

Minneapolis Federal Reserve President

Neel Kashkari

He said that he is seeing mixed signals in the economy. Inflation, which was running at around 3%, and "too high", as well as parts of the labour market, "look under pressure".

San Francisco Federal Reserve President

Mary Daly

On Thursday, the Fed said that now that it has reduced interest rates twice in this year, the risks are equalized for the Fed's goals. She said that the rate of decline in services inflation is not consistent and that it's more concerning that labor demand continues to slow.

Trader Bets on Rate Cuts Tumble

CME Group's FedWatch tool shows that traders bets on December rate cuts have fallen to 49.6% from 62.9% as of Wednesday.

What you see today is a risk off assessment. The economic data will still be cloudy. The Fed may not be able to cut rates this December due to the incompleteness of the data.

The market is already showing signs that it's concerned about the high valuations of heavyweight technology stocks and those linked to artificial intelligence. He said, therefore, that it wasn't surprising "to see investors step back from the risk, sell the winners, and move into defensive areas of market".

Wall Street's Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 451.61 points or 0.94% to 47,803.21. The S&P 500 declined 80.00 points or 1.17% to 6,770.79, and the Nasdaq Composite was down 429.28 or 1.83% to 22,977.17 as of 12:22 p.m.

The MSCI index of global stocks fell by 8.01 points or 0.79% to 1,003.77.

PAN-EUROPEAN STOCX 600 INDEX REACHES RECORD HIGH EVEN BEFORE FALL

The pan-European STOXX 600 fell by 0.61% after hitting a new record earlier. Europe's FTSEurofirst 300 fell by 15.41 points or 0.66%.

U.S. Treasuries

Prices were down and yields increased as investors scaled back their expectations of imminent rate cuts. This was due to the uncertainty surrounding the inflation outlook, and the stark differences between Fed policymakers regarding the direction the U.S. economic and monetary policies are taking.

The yield of the benchmark 10-year U.S. notes increased by 1.7 basis point to 4,096% from 4,079% at late Wednesday, while the yield on 30-year bonds rose by 2.1 basis points. The yield on the 2-year note, which is usually in line with Federal Reserve interest rate expectations, increased 1.9 basis to 3.585%.

The dollar index, which measures greenbacks against a basket including yens and euros, dropped 0.46% at 99.02 while the euro rose 0.51% to $1.1651.

The dollar fell 0.3% against the Japanese yen to 154.31.

The British pound rose 0.59%, to $1.3207. This was despite data that showed the economy barely grew. The Australian dollar rose 0.17% to $0.6549 against the greenback as positive employment data boosted bets that its rate-cutting cycles may be ending.

Oil futures recovered some of their losses in the previous session as investors weighed global oversupply and looming sanctions on Russia's Lukoil. However, gains were pared down after data revealed a larger-than expected buildup in U.S. crude inventory.

U.S. crude increased 0.6% to $58.84 per barrel. Brent rose to $63.13 a barrel, an increase of 0.69% for the day.

The gold price fell after reaching a three-week high earlier as the hopes of a Fed rate reduction next month faded.

Gold spot was unchanged at $4,198.40 per ounce. U.S. Gold Futures dropped 0.25% to an ounce of $4,194.00. (Reporting from Sinead carew in New York and Marc Jones in London, with editing by Sharon Singleton, Ed Osmond, and Stephanie Kelly)

(source: Reuters)