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Copper prices rise as China's economic data boosts growth optimism
The price of copper rose on Monday, after data released by China's top consumer in October showed a easing of deflation. This boosted confidence that the economy is recovering. Consumer prices also turned positive while factory gate prices declined. As of 0255 GMT, the most traded copper contract at Shanghai Futures Exchange had risen 0.7% to 86,550 Yuan ($12150.78) per tonne. The benchmark copper for three months also rose 0.7%, to $10,798.5 per ton. According to the National Bureau of Statistics' (NBS) published data on Sunday, the producer price index fell by 2.1% in October compared with the previous year. This is a slight improvement from the 2.3% drop in September. The consumer price index rose 0.2% and reversed a two-month downward trend. Both readings exceeded estimates and showed a reduction in deflationary stress in the second largest economy in the world. Analysts warned that risks were not over, but called for additional policy to stimulate demand. The United States Senate is close to passing a bill that will fund the government until January 2026. This would end the shutdown which was a record. It also helped copper prices by relieving the market of the negative impact. Analysts said that copper stocks in sheds registered with the SHFE decreased 1% compared to a week earlier, according to Friday's stock report. This shows a recovery in demand after a decline in copper prices last week which wiped out overextended gains. Copper demand has been resilient. Although buyers were cautious during high prices, they have increased their purchasing orders as prices decreased," said analysts at Chinese broker GF Futures in a report. Aluminium, among other SHFE metals, edged up 0.14%, while lead gained 0.43%. Tin added 1.01%. Zinc was down 0.20%. Nickel dipped by 0.17%. Nickel was unchanged. ($1 = 7.1230 Chinese Yuan) (Reporting and editing by Sherry Phillips, Lewis Jackson, Dylan Duan)
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Stocks surge on optimism about possible end of US government shutdown
The dollar continued to suffer from losses last week, despite the optimism of a possible end to the historic U.S. shutdown. On Sunday, the U.S. Senate moved toward a vote to reopen the federal government. This came a day after Senate majority leader John Thune announced that bipartisan discussions in the chamber had taken a positive direction. Nasdaq Futures gained 1.1%, while S&P500 futures increased by 0.65%. The Nikkei, Japan's stock market index, rose 1% and MSCI's broadest Asia-Pacific share index outside Japan gained 0.9%. Charu Chanana is the chief investment strategist of Saxo. The Senate may pass the bill but it must be approved by both the House of Representatives, and then sent to the President Donald Trump, who will sign the bill. This process could take several hours. The shutdown is taking a toll on the U.S. Economy. Federal workers, from airports to the military and law enforcement are not paid. Meanwhile, the central bank has limited access to government data. Kevin Hassett, White House economist, said in an exclusive interview that the fourth-quarter GDP of the United States could be negative if shutdown continues. The data released on Friday showed that the U.S. consumer's sentiment fell to a low of about 3-1/2 years in early November, as consumers worried about economic consequences. Chanana said that while a deal could be beneficial to the market by restoring trust and liquidity, the damage done to the economy from the U.S. shutdown, which is now the longest in history, would not be reversed. On Monday, the overall risk sentiment was still positive. The FTSE Futures rose 0.8%, and the EuroStoxx 50 Futures and DAX Futures each gained nearly 1.4%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index grew 0.6%, while the CSI300 blue chip index in China fell 0.14%. China's producer prices were revealed in data released on Sunday Deflation As the government intensifies its efforts to curb excessive capacity and intense competition between firms, consumer prices have returned to positive territory. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield increased by 3.5 basis points, to 4.1278%. The yield on the two-year bond rose by about 3 basis points to 3.5886%. The dollar has recovered some of the losses it suffered last week as investors weighed the prospects for the U.S. economic outlook against a Federal Reserve that is more hawkish. Despite recent data that fueled concerns about a weakened U.S. labor market, Fed officials reiterated last week their preference to go slow with further rate reductions. The euro fell 0.06% against the dollar to $1.1558. The pound fell by 0.1%, to $1.3152. Meanwhile, the dollar index remained at 99.64. The markets are pricing in 63% of the chance that Fed will reduce rates in December. In a recent note, ANZ economists said that "the Fed's talk last week was overwhelmingly in favor of delaying easing until December," even though the majority of speakers were regional Fed Presidents who do not vote. For now, the 12-member panel, which includes seven governors and 5 regional Fed presidents, is voting in favor of a 25-bp rate reduction, with both dovish and hawkish dissents. We do not see a rate reduction as a foregone conclusion and recognize that the decision will be based on the incoming data, and the balance of the risks associated with the future. The dollar rose 0.3% against the yen to 153.90. Bank of Japan policymakers have seen a Growing A summary of the opinions expressed at the October meeting on Monday showed that there was a case for raising interest rates soon, and some argued the need to maintain the wage-hike momentum in companies. Brent crude futures rose 0.53% per barrel to $63,97, while U.S. Crude gained 0.6% at $60.11. Spot gold rose 1.2%, to $4 047.23 per ounce.
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Iron ore falls to multi-month lows amid China demand concerns
Iron ore prices dropped for the second consecutive session on Monday, hitting their lowest level in several months. This was due to lingering fears about demand in China, which is a major consumer of iron ore. Also, portside ore stocks were rising. By 0215 GMT, the most traded January iron ore contract at China's Dalian Commodity Exchange fell by 1.18% to 756.5 Yuan ($106.21), its lowest level since 10 July. As of 0205 GMT the benchmark December iron ore traded on the Singapore Exchange had fallen 0.12% to $101.15 per ton. This was its lowest price since September 1. First Futures analysts said that several steelmakers in China have implemented equipment maintenance due to losses. Analysts at the consultancy Mysteel reported that a couple of cities, including Tangshan - a key hub for steel production - removed emergency response based on pollution Sunday. Steel mills must typically control production when responding to such emergencies. Analysts said that mills were not keen to restart full-scale operations due to the losses they suffered as a result of low raw material prices, and a softening demand downstream. Iron ore stocks at major Chinese ports also increased as prices rose, resulting in a pressure on prices. SteelHome reported that the number of tons produced in the United States increased by 2.1% compared to the previous week, reaching 138.44 millions as of November 7. This is the highest level since March 21. Coke and other steelmaking materials, such as coking coal, fell by 2.11% and 1.67 percent, respectively. The Shanghai Futures Exchange has seen a decline in most steel benchmarks. Rebar fell 0.3%, hot-rolled coil dropped 0.4%, and stainless steel remained unchanged. The iron market has been weakened despite positive factory data. In October, China's producer prices deflation eased and consumer prices returned into positive territory as the government increased efforts to curb excessive capacity and fierce competition between firms. $1 = 7.1230 Chinese Yuan (Reporting and editing by Amy Lv, Lewis Jackson)
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Scientists blame rising temperatures for the destruction caused by Typhoon Kalmaegi in Southeast Asia.
Scientists warn that extreme weather events will only increase in frequency as temperatures continue to rise. At least 188 people were killed by Typhoon Kalmaegi in the Philippines. It also caused extensive damage to farmland and infrastructure across the archipelago. After landing in central Vietnam on Thursday night, the storm destroyed homes and uprooted many trees. At least five people were killed. The path of destruction of Kalmaegi coincides with the meeting of more than 190 delegates in Belem, Brazil's rainforest city for the latest round in climate talks. Researchers claim that the failure of leaders around the world to control greenhouse gas emission has resulted in increasingly violent storms. Ben Clarke is an extreme weather researcher from London's Grantham Institute on Climate Change and Environment. He said that the sea surface temperatures over the South China Sea and the Western North Pacific are both unusually warm. The trend in sea surface temperature is clearly linked to global warming. WARMER WATERS PACK 'FUEL' INTO CYCLONES Scientists say that while it's not easy to link a specific weather event with climate change, in general, higher sea surface temperatures accelerate the evaporation and add more "fuel" to tropical cyclones. Gianmarco Megaldo, researcher at National University of Singapore, said that climate change increases typhoon intensities primarily through warming ocean surface temperature and increasing atmospheric moisture. He added that "although this doesn't mean every typhoon is going to get stronger, it does increase the probability of storms with greater intensity and heavier rains, as well as stronger winds." MUCH INTENSIER BUT NOT FREQUENTER While data doesn't indicate that tropical storms have become more frequent, Mengaldo said the number of storms with high intensity has increased. He co-authored a report on the role climate change played in Typhoon Ragasa, which hit the Philippines last September. He said that the total number of typhoons per year had not increased in a long time. Climate change is likely to be responsible for the increase in the number of intense events, and episodes of rapid intensification. This has been driven by the warmer oceans, and increased atmospheric instability. In November of last year, four tropical cyclones developed at the same moment, a rare event. This suggests that storms are now occurring over shorter periods. Dhrubajyoti Samantha, a climate researcher at Singapore's Nanyang Technological University, said that even if the total number of cyclones doesn't increase dramatically each year, their proximity to one another and impact potential may increase. He added that "Kalmaegi serves as a reminder of this emerging risk pattern." BACK-TOBACK SEVERE STORMS CAUSING MORE DESTRUCTION Feng Xiangbo is a tropical storm scientist at the University of Reading in Britain. He said that "back-to-back" storms could cause more damage. This is because the soils are already soaked, the rivers are full and infrastructure has been weakened. Even a weak storm can cause catastrophic damage at this time. Feng and Mengaldo both warned that other regions may also be at risk, as storms could form in new locations and follow different paths and intensify. Feng said that recent studies show the coastal areas affected by tropical cyclones are growing significantly due to storm surges and ocean wave growth. This, along with the mean sea level increase, poses a serious threat to low lying areas, especially in the Philippines and on Vietnam's shallow coast shelves. (Reporting and editing by Saad Saeed; David Stanway)
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Oil prices rise on the optimism that the US government will reopen soon
Oil prices rose Monday, despite concerns over rising global supplies. This was due to optimism that the U.S. shutdown would end soon. Brent crude futures were up 47 cents or 0.74% to $64.10 per barrel at 0123 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude was $60.25 per barrel, up $50 cents or 0.84%. The historic U.S. shutdown is nearing its end. It has now lasted 40 days. On Sunday, the Senate moved towards a vote to reopen the federal government. Tony Sycamore, IG's market analyst, said: "The imminent reopening will be a welcome boost for 800,000 federal employees, restoring their pay and resuming vital programs, which will increase consumer confidence, spending and activity." He said that this would also improve the risk perception across all markets and lead to a rise in WTI oil prices towards $62 per barrel. Brent and WTI both fell by about 2% and recorded their second weekly drop, due to fears of an oversupply. OPEC+ (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries with their Allies) agreed to slightly increase output in December but also paused any further increases in the first three months, fearing a glut. Crude stocks are also rising in the United States, while the amount of oil on board ships in Asian waterways has doubled over the past few weeks as tighter Western sanctions have curtailed imports into China and India. Indian refiners are now looking to the Middle East, and even the Americas for alternative supplies to Russian oil. The Russian oil producer Lukoil faces increasing disruptions, as the November 21 deadline for American companies to stop doing business with it looms and after the sale of its operations to Swiss trader Gunvor fell through. Sycamore reported that the decision by U.S. president Trump to exempt Hungary from U.S. sanction on Russian oil imports for a year has added to concerns about global oversupply. (Reporting and editing by Christian Schmollinger; Florence Tan is the reporter)
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Shoigu leads a large Russian delegation to Egypt for talks on military issues, RIA reports
The Russian Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu, along with a large delegation that included senior nuclear and arms officials, arrived in Cairo Sunday to hold military discussions with Egypt's leaders. RIA reported. RIA reported that Shoigu will meet with President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi and Egypt's National Security Advisor, the Foreign and Defence Ministers, and other senior intelligence and security officials. The Russian Security Council press service said that "priority topics" included the prospects of implementing agreements made at the highest levels, including those in military and military technical cooperation. Shoigu is a close ally of Vladimir Putin, and was the former minister of defence who led Russia's involvement in Ukraine. He remains a major player in the Kremlin's security and defence apparatus, and has a significant voice. Russia and Egypt have maintained close relations, with Moscow and Cairo balancing their relationship with Western allies and Gulf partners amid the conflict in Ukraine and Gaza. The Russian delegation is made up of officials from Rosoboronexport (arms exporter), Roscosmos (space agency), Rosatom (nuclear agency), as well as the Interior, Foreign, Justice, Industry, and Industry Ministries, according to RIA. (Reporting and editing by Deepa Babyington in Melbourne. Reporting by Lidia Kelley)
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Why is it important to attend the COP30 Climate Summit?
The U.N. Climate conference generates hundreds of headlines every year about global efforts to save the world from a climate catastrophe. The conference begins in Belem, a Brazilian rainforest city. What exactly takes place at these annual summits, then? What you should know WHAT IS A COP? The annual Conference is called a COP. This stands for Conference of the Parties who signed the U.N. Climate Treaty of 1992. The U.N. The Framework on Climate Change Convention, or UNFCCC, committed countries to work together to combat climate change. The treaty established the principle "common, but differentiated responsibility", which means that the countries with the highest emissions of greenhouse gases have a greater obligation to solve the problem. Brazil is currently the rotating presidency. It sets the agenda for the summit and works throughout the year to rally government leaders toward common goals and actions. The two-week summit is then hosted by the rotating presidency, now held by Brazil. This draws global attention to the problem while allowing national leaders to exchange ideas and be held accountable. The annual summits are a hub for geopolitical, financial and civil society discussion. They project the idea of "a global village" which welcomes all nations, businesses, and financiers. Why should we care about COP30 this year? This year's climate summit is a momentous occasion for many. Brazil hosted the Rio Earth Summit, where the UNFCCC Treaty was signed 33 year ago. The country has insisted that the event will return to its roots this year by acknowledging those who are most vulnerable, including indigenous groups. Some of these groups have joined the talks. Brazil has asked nations to focus on implementing past promises such as a COP28 commitment to phase out the use of fossil fuels, instead of making new ones. COP30 also marks the first time that the previous goal of preventing a warming over 1.5 degrees Celsius has been failed. Brazil chose to host COP30 at the Amazonian city of Belem in order to highlight the importance of the world forests, which remain targets for industries such as logging, mining and farming. Who are the main players at the Summit? The majority of national governments send teams. Many countries will speak in groups that share similar interests. The G77+China bloc of developing nations and the Alliance of Small Island States, which faces an existential danger from rising seas are two of the most prominent voices. The BASIC Group, which includes Brazil, South Africa and India, and the Africa Group are also influential. The United States, which announced in January that it would quit the Paris Climate Change Treaty, has now stepped down from its previous leadership role. China, Brazil, and other countries have filled the void. What Happens at the Summit? The sprawling COP Campus is often a hive, with campaigns trying to bring attention to their cause while corporations lobby for policy changes and seek business opportunities. This year, the side events were not held as usual. Instead, financiers met in Sao Paulo and local leaders in Rio de Janeiro. These events were held in conjunction with a gathering of world leaders at Belem to generate support and momentum in preparation for the COP30, which runs from November 10-21. In the first week of the summit, negotiators from each country will set out their priorities and assess one another's position. Themes will begin to emerge as countries and companies announce their action plans and financial pledges for projects. During the second week of negotiations, national ministers are usually present to discuss final decisions and legal and technical details. This sounds easy, right? The COPs are rarely smooth, as countries compete for deals that suit their national interests and draw red lines. Sometimes the talks can stall and cause acrimony. Negotiators spend many nights in frantic sessions to find compromises. The countries then reconvene and approve the decisions by consensus rather than unanimity. The closing session, which is marked by the hammering of a gavel, almost always takes longer than expected - sometimes even several days. Bring snacks. (Reporting and editing by Kati Daigle, David Gregorio, and William James)
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US sanctions official: It's time to stop Iran from funding Hezbollah
The top official of the U.S. Treasury Department said that the United States is looking to seize a "moment in Lebanon" to cut off Iranian funding for Hezbollah, and to press the group into disarming. John Hurley said in a late-Friday interview that Iran managed to send about $1 billion this year to Hezbollah despite the Western sanctions which have ravaged its economy. The U.S. is waging a campaign of "maximum pressuring" on Tehran to reduce its uranium-enrichment program and regional influence. This includes in Lebanon, where the Iran-backed Hezbollah has also been weakened since Israel destroyed its military strength in a war in 2023-24. Washington sanctioned last week two individuals who were accused of using money exchanges in order to fund Hezbollah. Hezbollah is considered a terrorist organization by many Western governments as well as Gulf states. "There is a moment now in Lebanon." Hurley stated that if we could convince Hezbollah of its need to disarm then the Lebanese could regain their country. The key is to remove the Iranian influence, which starts with the money they pour into Hezbollah, he said in Istanbul, as part of an international tour to Turkey, Lebanon and the United Arab Emirates, and Israel, to put pressure on Iran. IRANIAN ECONOMY HIT BY SNAPBACK U.N. SANCTIONS Since September, when the talks to reduce its disputed nuclear activities and missile program failed, Tehran has been relying on stronger ties with China and Russia, as well as regional states, including the UAE. Western powers accuse Iran secretly of developing nuclear weapons capabilities. Tehran, whose economic situation is now at risk of hyperinflation, severe recession and hyperinflation, claims that its nuclear program was developed solely for civilian purposes. Israel, a U.S.-aligned country, says Hezbollah has been rebuilding its capabilities. On Thursday it carried out heavy airstrikes on southern Lebanon in spite of a ceasefire agreement reached a year earlier. The government of Lebanon has pledged to disarm all non-state organizations, including Hezbollah. Hezbollah was founded by Iran's Revolutionary Guards in 1982 and led the Iran-backed “Axis of Resistance”. It opened fire at Israel, declaring its solidarity with Palestinians in 2023 when war broke out in Gaza. The group, which is a political force also in Beirut has not prevented Lebanese forces from confiscating their caches in southern Lebanon, but it has refused to disarm in its entirety. Hurley has made his first Middle East trip since he took office in the Trump administration. He has met with bankers, government officials and executives from the private sector to push the case against Iran. He said: "Even after all that Iran has gone through, and despite the fact that its economy is not in a great state, they still pump a lot money into their terrorist proxies." (Reporting and editing by Christopher Cushing; Reporting by Jonathan Spicer)
Stocks surge on optimism about possible end of US government shutdown
On Monday, global shares rose in Asia amid optimism that the historic U.S. shutdown may be nearing an end. Meanwhile, the dollar continued to suffer losses from the previous week.
On Sunday, the U.S. Senate moved towards a vote to reopen the federal government. This came a day after Senate majority leader John Thune announced that bipartisan discussions in the chamber had taken a positive direction.
Early trade saw Nasdaq 500 futures rise 0.5%, while S&P futures were up 0.8%.
The Nikkei, Japan's stock market index, rose 0.6% and MSCI's broadest Asia-Pacific share index outside Japan gained 0.5%.
Charu Chanana is the chief investment strategist for Saxo. She said that even if a deal was reached in the Senate, it would still need to be approved by the House of Representatives, where Democratic leaders had already indicated their opposition.
The markets might see a short-term improvement, but headline-driven instability is likely to persist until there is a clear solution.
The shutdown has had a negative impact on the U.S. economic system. Federal workers, from airports to the military and law enforcement are not paid. Meanwhile, the central bank is flying blind due to limited government reporting.
Kevin Hassett, White House economist, said in an exclusive interview that the fourth-quarter GDP of the United States could be negative if shutdown continues. The data released on Friday showed that the U.S. consumer's sentiment fell to a low of about 3-1/2 years in early November, as consumers worried about economic consequences.
Chanana said that while a deal could be beneficial to the market by restoring trust and liquidity, the damage done to the economy from the U.S. shutdown is not undone.
On Monday, the overall risk sentiment was still positive.
The EuroStoxx 50 futures, DAX Futures and South Korea's Kospi each rose 1.3%.
The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield rose 3.5 basis points, to 4.1278%. The yield on the two-year bond rose by about 3 basis points to 3.5886%.
The dollar has recovered some of the losses it suffered last week as investors weighed the prospects for the U.S. economic outlook against a Federal Reserve that is more hawkish.
Although recent data has stoked concerns about a weakening U.S. labor market, Fed officials have maintained their preference to be cautious with further rate reductions.
The dollar rose 0.28% to 153.87 Japanese yen while the euro fell 0.13%, closing at $1.1551
The value of the sterling fell by 0.17%, to $1.3142.
Brent crude futures rose 0.4% to $63.89 a barrel while U.S. Crude edged up 0.45% to $60.01 per barrel.
Spot gold rose 0.6% to $4.023.40 per ounce.
(source: Reuters)