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Delhi air quality at hazardous levels after Diwali fireworks
According to Swiss company IQAir the air quality in India’s capital New Delhi deteriorated on Tuesday to dangerous levels, with the highest readings in the world. This is partly due to firecrackers used during Diwali, a Hindu festival of light. The Supreme Court of India relaxed its ban on firecrackers last week, allowing the use of "green crackers" in the city for three hours maximum each on Sunday and Monday, though witnesses reported that crackers were set off outside of the allowed times. The crackers emit emissions that are 30 to 50 percent lower than those of conventional fireworks. IQAir read New Delhi at 442, which makes it the most polluted city in the world. The PM2.5 concentration in New Delhi was 59 times higher than the World Health Organisation annual guideline. PM2.5 is particulate matter that has a diameter of 2.5 microns and less. This can cause deadly diseases or cardiac problems. The Central Pollution Control Board of India (CPCB), too, rated the air quality in the city as "very poor", with an AQI measurement of 350. CPCB considers AQI between 0-50 to be good. Delhi's air quality is not expected to improve in the next few days. The earth sciences ministry predicts that the AQI will be between 201-400. Every winter, the dense smog that blankets India's capital, and its surrounding districts, is caused by cold, heavy air which traps dust from construction, vehicle exhaust and smoke from fires in agriculture. This causes respiratory problems for many of India's 20 million residents. To combat the problem, in the past authorities have closed some schools, stopped certain building works and restricted private vehicles. India is not the only nation in South Asia that suffers from toxic air. The government of Pakistan's Punjab Province, which shares its border with India, has launched an "emergency" plan to combat pollution. This includes actions against farm fires, smoke-emitting cars, and the use of antismog guns in areas polluted. IQAir data revealed that the air quality in Lahore (the capital of Punjab) was 234 - the second highest reading in the world. Sajid Bashir is the spokesperson for Punjab Environment Protection Agency. He said that the main issue at the moment is the air pollution coming from Indian Punjab. (Reporting and editing by YPrajesh, Kate Mayberry and Mubasher Bukhari; Additional reporting from Mubasher in Lahore)
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MPOC: Crude palm oil price to remain above $1 042 per tonne in 2026
The Malaysian Palm Oil Council announced on Tuesday that the price of crude palm oil will remain above 4,400 Ringgit ($1,042) a metric ton through 2026. This is due to biodiesel and an uncertain outlook for stocks. Concerns about the effect on Indonesian stocks due to a tightening of supply of soybean oil in Argentina B50 biodiesel mandate In a press release, the Council stated that it would support palm prices. It said that sentiment was still cautious because of the low crude oil prices, large vegetable oil inventories in major markets like China and India and due to the U.S. China trade war. The Council stated that there was an increase in U.S. stocks of soybeans since the harvest started there last month. China had suspended its imports of U.S. beans in May, and now buys primarily from South America. The report stated that "although stronger domestic crushing activities and higher soybean oil usage in the U.S. will be expected under the 45Z policy in 2026 which prioritizes domestically produced feedstocks, these factors are not sufficient to offset the sharp drop in exports to China." The report also stated that the global vegetable oil market in the upcoming season will be heavily dependent on sunflower oil. This is because the exportable supply of soybean oil in the U.S.A. and Brazil, which was 2.7 million tonnes in 2024/25, should drop to 1.6 millions tons in 2025/26 as a result of domestic biofuel demands. The Council stated that soybean oil had traded at a lower price between April and September, but now palm oil is trading at a higher price. The Council reported that by mid-October, palm oil was $42 per ton and $26 higher than soybean oil on the global market.
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Asian stocks soar after trade tensions and credit concerns ease
Asian shares rose Tuesday, as the prospect that trade tensions would ease between the two largest economies in the world boosted risk sentiment. Sanae Takaichi is set to be elected Japan's new prime minister. This will lift the Nikkei, but weigh on the yen. U.S. president Donald Trump said he expected to reach a fair deal with Chinese President Xi Jinping, and downplayed the risks of a conflict over Taiwan. In recent weeks, trade tensions between China and the U.S. have weighed heavily on the markets. Investors are now focused on Trump's meeting with Xi next week on the sidelines an economic conference held in South Korea. Investor sentiment was lifted by the lingering optimism that a solution could be in sight. MSCI's broadest Asia-Pacific share index outside Japan reached a four-and-a-half-year-high and closed the day up by 0.94%. China's stocks were up 0.2%, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 1% in early trading. Investors snapped up stocks of rare earths, critical minerals and other essential materials after Australia signed a deal to supply the United States. The Nikkei 225 index rose to an all-time high and was close to reaching a milestone 50,000 points, as the so called 'Takaichi trading' did not show any signs of slowing down. Takaichi was confirmed as the next Prime Minister of Japan by a parliamentary vote. INVESTORS BUY DIP Investor sentiment also suffered last week, as a series of bad loans in regional U.S. banks sparked concerns about credit risks which threatened to spill over into the wider markets. Risk assets were also affected by the prolonged U.S. shutdown. Investors have bought the dip this week, shrugging off concerns about trade tensions and focusing instead on the upcoming earnings of several large companies. Chris Weston is the head of research for Pepperstone. He said, "The market has easily overcome the wall of concern, as new capital was injected into risks and fresh air into the market's lung." The market was buoyed by the expectation that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates at its next two meetings. Kevin Hassett, White House Economic Advisor, also commented on the likelihood of the shutdown ending this week. All three major U.S. indexes closed sharply higher overnight, with chip stocks reaching a new record high. Analysts now expect S&P 500 earnings to grow 9.3% on average year-on-year in the third quarter, a marked improvement from their estimate of 8.8% as of October 1. Mixo Das is Asia Equity and Quant Strategist for J.P. Morgan. "I believe the main driver is the aggressive policy easing we are seeing. The economy is nowhere near a recession and the policy is still being eased very aggressively. TAKAICHI WINS VOTE IN THE LOWER HOUSE TO BECOME JAPAN’S PM Sanae Takaichi, a conservative hardliner, was on track to become Japan's very first female Prime Minister after winning an important vote in the lower house of parliament. Analysts expect Takaichi will be pro-stimulus, and against any further increases in interest rates. This is a negative for the Japanese yen and for bonds, but positive for stocks. Last week, the yen fell by 0.4% to 151.39 dollars per dollar. It also suffered against the euro and sterling. Next week, the Bank of Japan will meet. Traders are pricing in a 20% chance of an increase. However, Governor Kazuo Ueda Has so far kept his options open, by giving few clues about the timing of an interest rate increase. Gold prices fell 0.8% in one day, but they were still close to the record highs that have been seen recently.
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Goldman Sachs warns of possible disruption of supply of rare Earths and key minerals
Goldman Sachs warned of the risks that could be posed to global supply chains for rare earths, other critical minerals and metals, highlighting China's dominance over mining and refining and pointing out challenges to nations wishing to establish independent supply chains. China increased export restrictions on rare earths, adding five new elements on October 9 and increasing scrutiny for semiconductor users before an expected summit between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping. CHINA'S SUPPLY CHAIN LEVERAGE Goldman Sachs reported in a Monday note that China controls 69% global rare earth mining and refining. It also said 98% of magnet production is done by China. Rare earth elements have become a geopolitical flashpoint, because they are essential to the high-tech industry and used in everything from computer chips to defence equipment. The bank said that while the rare earths market was worth $6 billion last fiscal year, it is only a fraction of the size of copper, which is 33-times bigger. It also warned that disruptions of 10% to industries dependent on REEs can result in a $150 billion loss in economic output. Inflationary pressures are also exacerbated by shortages. MINERALS MAY FACE CURBS ON EXPORT Goldman Sachs identified samarium as a particularly vulnerable metal to export restrictions. Samarium is used in heat-resistant samarium cobalt magnets that are key to aerospace and defense. The GDP could also be affected by disruptions in the supply of lutetium or terbium, which are widely used. Since China is the dominant player in mining and refining, light rare earths such as cerium, lanthanum and others are future targets. Western producers such as Lynas and Solvay, could help ease the shortages. However, China is still a major supplier. CHALLENGES FOR INDEPENDENT SUPPLY CHAIN Goldman Sachs identifies a number of barriers to building independent REE and magnetic supply chains. These include geological scarcity, technological complexity, and environmental issues. The report said that heavy rare earths are particularly scarce outside of China and Myanmar. Most known deposits are small, low-grade or radioactive. The bank stated that the refining of REEs requires expertise and infrastructure. It takes five years to build a refinery. The Chinese control over critical inputs like samarium also limits magnet production in other countries, including the U.S.A., Japan and Germany. INVESTMENT RISKS AND COMMODITY RISE Goldman Sachs suggests that investors can manage disruption risks by investing in equities. They cite Iluka Resources, Lynas Rare Earths and MP Materials Corp. as the key players. The bank forecast a deficit in supplies of Neodymium-Praseodymium Oxide (NdPrO), critical for making magnets, Goldman Sachs has warned that geopolitical tensions could lead to supply disruptions for commodities like cobalt, natural gas, and oil. (Reporting and editing by Clarence Fernandez in Bengaluru, Anmol Choubey)
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Gold's record-breaking run is halted as investors book profits
The gold price fell on Tuesday as investors took profits following the bullion's recent high, which was fueled by the expectation of more interest rate reductions from the U.S. Federal Reserve. As of 0456 GMT spot gold was down by 0.3%, at $4340.99 an ounce. It had reached a record high of $4381.21 per ounce on Monday. U.S. Gold Futures for December Delivery were unchanged at $4,357.80 an ounce. Tim Waterer, KCM Trade's Chief Market Analyst, said that profit-taking and a decline in safe-haven flows have combined to take the edge of the gold price. Any pullbacks will be seen as opportunities for buying gold while the Fed continues on its current rate-cutting path. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are pricing in a quart-point Fed rate reduction this month and another in December. In a low-interest rate environment, gold, which is a nonyielding investment, does well. Waterer stated that the current gold rally still has room to rise, provided U.S. CPI figures released later this week don't reveal any unpleasant surprises. According to economists surveyed by the, the data is scheduled to be released on Friday, after a delay caused by the government shutdown. The index should have risen 3.1% year-over-year in September. On Monday, the U.S. shutdown reached its 20th consecutive day after senators failed to resolve the impasse for the 10th time in a row last week. Kevin Hassett, White House's economic adviser, said that the shutdown would likely end this week. The shutdown has caused key economic data to be delayed, leaving investors and policymakers with a data vacuum ahead of next week's Fed policy meeting. In Malaysia, U.S. Treasury secretary Scott Bessent will meet Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng this week in an effort to prevent a rise in U.S. tariffs against Chinese goods. Silver spot fell 1.2% at $51.83 an ounce. Platinum dropped 0.7% to 1,627.53 while palladium rose 0.1% to 1 497.62.
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MORNING BID EUROPE - Markets dismiss worries as risk rally continues
Ankur Banerjee gives us a look at what the future holds for European and global markets Worries about credit risk are now a distant memory. Investors feel optimistic, betting on the Fed cutting rates next week, and that earnings will be good. This - call it optimism - is what has driven stocks in Asia-Pacific to new highs, with Japan's Nikkei coming just short of a milestone 50,000 points. Apple-led gains in U.S. technology shares have led to strong gains overnight for tech stocks from Taiwan and South Korea. Sanae Takaichi, a conservative hardliner, is expected to be elected as Japan's 1st female Prime Minister later on Tuesday. Her appointment has continued to drive Japanese shares higher in hopes that her stimulus plans will benefit equities. Local media reports that Takaichi, an acolyte to former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe will appoint Satsuki Katayama to the position of Finance Chief. Katayama, who has said that the real value of the yen is closer to 120 or 130 per dollar, may not be good news for yen bulls. The last time the yen reached 151.07 was in 2007. In Europe, there is not much on the calendar in terms of economic events. This could be good for risk assets because they can take their cues from the Federal Reserve's lowering interest rates. The traders are predicting a 98.3% probability of a rate cut by 25 basis points next week. Investors are also comforted by the recent comments made by U.S. president Donald Trump about China. Trump has said he hopes to reach a fair deal with Chinese President Xi Jinping, as he prepares for a meeting with Xi at an economic conference next week in South Korea. The news next week will be dominated by the central bank meetings taking place in the U.S., Japan and the meeting between Trump & Xi. After a volatile week in which fears over credit risk impacted sentiment, traders will be focusing on regional bank reports as well. Investors were largely satisfied with the earnings reported by some companies on Monday. The following are the key developments that may influence Tuesday's markets: Earnings: Unicredit, L'Oreal
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Another TSO Enlists Njord Survey for Offshore Wind Support Services
Swedish firm Njord Survey has entered into a frame agreement with Energinet, Denmark’s national transmission system operator (TSO), covering site and route survey services for offshore wind and subsea cable projects.The long-term collaboration reinforces Njord Survey’s position as provider of services to the offshore renewable sector.It follows the agreement company signed earlier in October with German TSO 50Hertz to deliver geophysical and ROV seabed survey service in support of offshore wind developments in Baltic Sea.Swedish Firm to Deliver Carbon-Neutral Surveys for Baltic Sea OW Projects“This partnership strengthens our role in supporting the energy transition across Northern Europe, providing high-quality, carbon-neutral survey data essential for safe and efficient infrastructure development,” said Martin Wikmar, CEO of Njord Survey.
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Shanghai copper gains as signs of US-China tensions easing
Shanghai copper rose on Tuesday as the U.S. President Donald Trump lowered China's intentions towards Taiwan while expecting a fair deal. As of 0249 GMT, the most active contract on Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 0.49% to 85,720 Yuan ($12,034.26) a metric ton. The benchmark London Metal Exchange three-month futures rose by 0.26%, to $10 719.50 per ton. Trump said on Monday that China has no intention of invading Taiwan. He also acknowledged he would raise the issue at the high-stakes summit with his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping next week in South Korea. Trump said he expected a "strong deal" on trade that would make him and Xi both "happy". The remarks were made during a meeting between the Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and President Obama, at which they signed an important minerals agreement in order to counter China’s dominance of global supply. The U.S. Treasury secretary Scott Bessent will meet with China's vice premier He Lifeng in Malaysia to try and avoid an escalation in U.S. duties on Chinese products. The copper bulls continued to gain Monday despite the deflationary pressure in China and the slowest third quarter economic growth for a year. Traders continue to watch how trade tensions will develop between the two world's largest economies in the lead-up to Trump-Xi's planned meeting in South Korea. Aluminium gained 0.31% among other SHFE base materials, while zinc gained 0.50% and nickel gained 0.62%. Lead was up by 0.41%. Tin posted an increase of 0.81%. The LME also saw a slight increase in zinc, nickel, and tin, but little change for aluminium or lead. $1 = 7.1230 Chinese Yuan Renminbi (Reporting and editing by Harikrishnan Nair; Lewis Jackson)
Oil drops for a second consecutive day, as concerns about oversupply dominate
Oil prices dropped for a second consecutive day on Tuesday, as fears about an excess of supply and the risks to demand resulting from tensions between China and the U.S., the two largest oil consumers in the world, weighed on the market.
Brent crude futures were down 17 cents or 0.28% at $60.84 per barrel as of 0343 GMT. The U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI), which is due to expire Tuesday, fell 0.52% to $57.22. The December contract, which is more active, was down by 19 cents or 0.33% at $56.83.
In Monday's session, prices fell to their lowest level since early May on concerns over a slowing economy due to the recent escalation of the U.S. China trade dispute.
WTI and Brent both have moved to
Contango
Market structures where prices for immediate delivery are lower than those for later deliveries and which indicates typically that supply near term is abundant and the demand weakening.
Prices have fallen as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, including Russia (known as OPEC+), have pushed forward with plans to increase oil production. Analysts have predicted a crude surplus this year and in the next.
Last week, the International Energy Agency projected a global surplus in 2026 of almost 4 million barrels a day.
In a note published on Tuesday, analysts at China's Haitong Securities stated that "the continued weakness of Brent's spread structure monthly indicates that the pressure due to oversupply is gradually manifesting," they said. This will dampen expectations in the market and reduce investors' willingness for gains. Limiting the potential of oil prices to recover.
Goldman Sachs analysts said on Tuesday that they expect Brent prices to drop to $52 per barrel by the end of 2026.
Goldman analysts attributed this week's drop in Brent oil prices to signs that "the long anticipated global surplus has begun to show" as seen in satellite data of global oil stocks and in inventory data from IEA in the U.S. and the Energy Information Administration.
A preliminary poll conducted on Monday, before the weekly reports of the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the EIA, showed that the expectation is that U.S. crude stockpiles increased last week. Ashitha Shivprasad reported from Bengaluru, Sonali Paul edited the story and Christian Schmollinger provided the final edit.
(source: Reuters)