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Copper prices fall on profit-taking before US jobs data
Copper prices fell on Thursday, as traders and funds profited from long positions in anticipation of the U.S. jobs data which could influence the direction of interest rates and dollar. By 1032 GMT the benchmark copper price on London Metal Exchange had fallen by 0.2% to $9,994 per metric tonne, after reaching a high of $10 020.50 for three months on Wednesday. The volume of trading was low ahead of the U.S. monthly employment report for June. The data is due on Thursday and should show a slight increase in unemployment. Weak growth numbers could cause concern about U.S. economic growth, and allow the Federal Reserve Bank to reduce interest rates. This would have a negative impact on the dollar. The industrial metals price has been boosted this year by a weakening dollar, which makes metals priced in dollars cheaper for buyers using other currencies. A U.S. investigation on potential tariffs for imports of metals used in power and construction could also have a strong impact on the price of copper. This could lead to shortages, and increase prices on COMEX. COMEX copper prices are about $1300 per ton higher than LME, which encourages producers and traders to divert their metal from other markets to the U.S. Tom Price, Panmure Liberum analyst, said: "While U.S. imports of copper have not been subject to a tariff yet... the market has still priced in this risk." A large amount of metal exported to the United States came from warehouses registered with the LME. Stocks of 0#MCUSTXLOC> on the LME have fallen by 65% since mid-February's 2025 peak. At 34%, cancelled warrants or metal that is destined to leave LME's warehouses indicate another 31,900 tonnes are waiting to ship out. Recent data indicates that the premium or backwardation is increasing. Cash copper contracts for three months forward are starting to bring metal back to LME. Copper stocks at the LME in Gwangyang, South Korea, have increased by 2,250 tonnes this week. In Kaohsiung in Taiwan, the stocks are up by 1.250 tons. Other metals saw aluminium slip 0.4% to $2.609 per ton. Zinc eased 0.3% at $2.749; lead rose 0.4%, to $2.068. Tin retreated by 0.2%, to $33,655 while nickel gained 0.7%, to $15,405.
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Human hair is a water-saving device in Chile, a country that has been hit by drought.
The small mats of hair at the base of the plants help to lock in moisture in orchards in Chile, which have suffered from drought for many years. According to the Matter of Trust Chile Foundation, who makes the mats, the hair is turned into sheets or discs of compostable mulch through mechanical weaving. This reduces direct evaporation of up to 71%, and can save as much as 48% of irrigation. "Hair is interesting. "Hair is very interesting. Maria Salazar, a farmer in Taltal in the arid Antofagasta Region of Chile, said that the hair had helped her get optimum crop yields from the lemon trees. Taltal is located about 900 km (560 miles north) of Santiago. Salazar stated that the hair mats were a great benefit for our system, and they also helped to reduce water stress. By providing shade, the hair mats maintain a high level of humidity. They also prevent the sun rays from evaporating our little water. In 2020, the foundation was established to encourage conservation and regeneration by creatively using waste. The hair comes from 350 salons in Chile and 10 pet groomers. About 2% of hair used for the mats is from pets. The foundation also produces a liquid fertiliser made from recycled hair, and an absorbent based on hair that can be used to remove contaminants such as metals, oils and other pollutants from water. (Reporting and additional reporting by Fabian Andres Cambero, Editing by Alexander Villegas & Rosalba OBrien)
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Study finds Germany could achieve a third of its climate goals through cutting fossil fuel subsidies
A German research institute stated on Thursday that reducing fossil fuel subsidies could help Germany achieve around one-third of its climate goals without having to rely on other tools, such as carbon pricing. In a recent study, the Center for European Economic Research in Mannheim (ZEW), also noted that one third of countries could achieve their climate goals by simply cutting subsidies for fossil-fuels like coal, oil and gas. According to the EU’s Environment Agency, Germany will continue to be the biggest subsidiser of fossil energy in the European Union. In 2023, the German government will provide about 41 billion euro ($48.33billion) in subsidies for coal, oil, and gas. This is more than 60% of the total EU amount that year. Environmental groups have criticized the government's plan to use Germany’s Climate and Transformation Fund to lower gas costs. The fund is funded primarily through CO2 emission trading. ZEW stated that cutting subsidies would also help boost the public finances. It said that by accounting for hidden costs associated with fossil fuels such as environmental and health damage, governments can collect additional tax revenue equal to almost 5% of the total consumption. The study found that reducing subsidies could help to avoid major costs associated with climate change and offset the impact of rising energy prices. Indirect subsidies such as pollution and health damages that are not included in energy costs, make up another 5.8% of global economic output. ZEW, citing the International Monetary Fund, said that they totaled nearly $6 trillion worldwide.
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AlixPartners estimates that only 15 electric car brands will be left in China by 2030.
AlixPartners, a consultancy, said that only 15 of the 129 brands currently selling electric vehicles and hybrids in China are financially viable by 2030. This is because intense competition has forced consolidation, and others have left the market. AlixPartners, without naming brands, said that these 15 brands will account for 75% of China’s EVs and plug-ins by the end the decade. Each brand averages annual sales of 1,02 million units. Stephen Dyer of AlixPartners, the head of their automotive practice in Asia said that consolidation in China will be slower than other markets because local governments are likely to continue to support non-viable brand names due to their importance for regional economies, employment, and supply chains. China, which is the largest auto market in the world, is currently experiencing a price battle and overcapacity. Both are putting pressure on profitability. Other than BYD, Li Auto and other publicly listed Chinese electric vehicle makers have not achieved profitability for a full year. Chinese regulators called on automakers to stop the price wars. Dyer, however, said that he believed the price wars would continue but with "hidden factors" such as zero-interest finance and insurance subsidies. Dyer stated that the capacity utilisation ratio in Chinese auto plants fell to 50% on average last year. This is the lowest level in 10 years and has a negative impact on profits.
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VEGOILS - Palm up as Dalian oil and Chicago soyoil counter the weak crude.
The price of Malaysian palm oils rose on Thursday for a second session, with Dalian oil, a stronger competitor, supporting the market. Crude oil and Chicago soybean oil were weaker. The benchmark palm-oil contract for September delivery at Bursa Malaysia's Derivatives exchange gained 31 ringgit or 0.76% to $4093 ringgit (US$969.91) per metric ton. Anilkumar bagani, research director at Mumbai-based Sunvin Group, said that the bullish momentum of Chinese vegetable oils during Asian hour supported the market. He added that the gains were capped by a decline in Chicago soyoil and energy prices. Dalian's palm oil contract, which is the most active contract in Dalian, rose by 1.22%. Chicago Board of Trade soyoil fell by 0.05%. As palm oil competes to gain a share in the global vegetable oils industry, it tracks the price fluctuations of competing edible oils. Investors are worried that higher U.S. Tariffs could be reinstated and lower fuel demand. Major producers are also expected to announce a production increase. Palm oil is less appealing as a biodiesel feedstock due to the weaker crude oil futures. The palm ringgit's trade currency strengthened by 0.14% in relation to the dollar. This made the commodity slightly cheaper for buyers who hold foreign currencies. ($1 = 4.2200 ringgit)
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Nornickel, a Russian nickel producer, has lowered its forecast for 2025 nickel excess to 120,000 tonnes
In a review of the metals markets on Thursday, Nornickel said that it expects to have a nickel surplus this year of 120,000 tons. This is 30,000 tonnes less than they had previously estimated. Nornickel, which is the largest producer of palladium in the world and also a major producer for refined nickel, has said that it has lowered its estimate on the nickel surplus, from the 150,000 tons previously estimated to 120,000 tonnes. Nornickel says that the surplus on the palladium markets is expected to reach 130,000 tonnes next year. Nornickel reported that nickel prices have remained steady at $15-$16 per ton this year, whereas other metals markets are more volatile because of the increasing macroeconomic uncertainties. The review stated that the main reason is the improvement in the fundamental indicators of the market. "Despite the continued growth in nickel production in China, Indonesia and other countries, we observe steady demand for Nickel in China." Nornickel stated that at the current nickel prices, about 25% of nickel producers were unprofitable. They also predicted that unprofitable production plants outside Indonesia may close soon. Nornickel stated that despite the uncertainty caused by the new U.S. tariffs on trade and the geopolitical unrest in the Middle East the improved fundamental indicators of the market and the decreased surplus instilled confidence in the nickel market in the short- and medium-term. The company stated that palladium consumption would drop by 2% to 9,1 million ounces this year. Nornickel anticipates that after stabilizing production of the palladium group of metals in Russia by 2025, the output of these metals will grow next year due to the launch of the new Chernogorsk deposit by Russian Platinum.
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Stocks reach record highs ahead of US payrolls; UK bonds remain steady
The dollar strengthened on Thursday, ahead of important U.S. employment data. In Europe, the bond markets in Britain were stable after a previous sell-off triggered by debt concerns. The bulls got a boost overnight from a deal reached between the United States, and Vietnam before the deadline for all U.S. tariffs to be implemented next week. This follows frantic trading in recent weeks. The pan-European STOXX 600 Index advanced 0.4%. MSCI's 47-country main world share gauge is now at its seventh all-time high in eight sessions, and the dollar is close to ending a 4-day slide. The bonds of Britain recovered some of the heavy losses they suffered a day before due to uncertainty about Finance Minister Rachel Reeves future. However, they remain weaker than their recent levels. The 20-year bond yield, which is an indicator of UK government borrowing costs over a longer period, has eased by eight basis points since its highest spike on Wednesday in October 2022, during Liz Truss' ill-fated tenure as premier. The UK Finance Minister Rachel Reeves' tearful appearance in parliament has sparked doubt about her future, and Britain's finances. After the government was forced into abandoning billions of pounds of welfare spending reductions, it is unclear what will happen to Reeves. Susannah Streeter is the head of money markets and financial services at Hargreaves Lansdown. The focus was also on the U.S. Payrolls Report, which will guide ongoing debates on whether and when the Federal Reserve cuts U.S. Interest Rates. Analysts predict a rise in jobs of 110.000 in June, with the unemployment rate rising to 4,3%. But the stakes are high following a surprise drop in the private sector payrolls in the past two years. The traders were also watching to see if the tax and spending bill of U.S. president Donald Trump was passed by Congress within the next 24 hour. According to analysts, the bill will add $3.3 trillion over the next 10 years to the United States national debt of $36 trillion. Wall Street closed Wednesday with record highs, after Trump announced the U.S. has struck a deal with Vietnam that includes a 20% tariff for exports into the U.S. This is still higher than previous tariffs, which were as high as 46%. Vietnamese shares rose 0.5%, the most since April 2022. However, the dong currency fell to a record low at 26,229 dollars per dong. Shane Oliver is the chief economist of AMP. He said, "More deals will be announced soon, but the tariff agreement with Vietnam (20%) does not augur very well. That or even higher could be the norm in some countries, including Europe and Japan." In fact, Japan invoked its national interests when talks with the U.S. stalled, and South Korean President Lee Jae Myung stated on Thursday that U.S. Tariff negotiations looked difficult, but he couldn't say if they could be concluded by next Tuesday. MSCI's broadest Asia-Pacific share index closed 0.3% higher. China's blue chip index rose 0.6% as weak services data led to expectations of further stimulus. Japan's Nikkei, meanwhile, finished flat. In Europe, Nasdaq and S&P futures were also broadly flat. JOBS RISK The dollar hovered just above its three-year low versus a basket of major counterparts, up by 0.1% on the day. After a 0.8% drop on Wednesday, the pound recovered 0.2% and reached $1.3662. The U.S. payroll figures will be a major risk factor for the markets. The Federal Reserve's majority members have said that they can wait to cut rates until they are able to gauge the impact of tariffs in real terms on inflation. Tony Sycamore is an analyst at IG. He said, "These labour-market indicators warn that the risk of a spike in unemployment to 4,4%, which would be the highest rate since October 2021, has increased." This would increase the likelihood of a Fed rate cut in July to 70%. Futures indicate that the Fed is only 25% likely to cut rates this month. The Fed hasn't eased its policy in any way this year. This angered Trump, who reiterated on Wednesday his call for Jerome Powell, the Chair, to resign. Trump has repeatedly attacked Powell since his January return to the White House for failing to lower borrowing costs. Trump said that rates should be lowered to 1%, from the current Fed benchmark rate of 4.25%-4.50%. UBS' survey of reserve managers on Thursday revealed that two thirds believe the Fed's independence is in danger and nearly half believe the U.S. rule of law may be deteriorating to the point where it could influence their asset allocation. The Treasuries Market was nervous before the data, as a poor jobs report could send yields sharply down. The yields on 10-year Treasury bonds fell 3 basis points, to 4.265%, and the yields on 2-year Treasury bonds dropped 2 bps, to 3.772%. Oil prices dropped on the commodities market after a 3% increase overnight, as Iran stopped cooperating with U.N.'s nuclear watchdog. Brent crude futures fell 0.8% to $68,64 per barrel. U.S. crude oil was down 0.7% on the day. Gold prices fell 0.1%, to $3352 per ounce. Andy Bruce contributed additional reporting; Emelia Sithole Matarise edited the article.
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Polestar will make new SUVs in Europe starting 2028
Polestar announced on Thursday that it will produce its Polestar SUV model in a Volvo Cars plant in Slovakia. The EV maker is shifting more production out of China to reduce its exposure to high European and U.S. Tariffs. Polestar announced that the two Swedish firms, both controlled and owned by China's Geely, and Li Shufu its owner, had signed an agreement and the new model will be launched in 2028. The company stated that it is expanding its footprint in Europe to diversify its contract manufacturing business. Volvo's Kosice plant in Slovakia will begin production in 2026 with a capacity of 250.000 cars per year. Polestar has not yet made a profit and faces tariffs on cars imported into Europe of 28,8%, as well as more than 100% on those imported into the United States. Last year, the European Union imposed tariffs against EVs made in China because it viewed them as unfairly subsidised by the Chinese government. Beijing rejects these criticisms. Polestar has been hit by tariffs more than other European automakers, because most of its cars are manufactured in China either by Volvo Cars and Geely. Volvo Cars' plant in South Carolina produces some Polestar 3 vehicles in the United States. In early this year, the company ceased to accept new orders for the Polestar 2 which was still being made in China. Polestar 4 will be exported to the United States by the automaker from a South Korean factory, where production should begin in the second quarter of this year. Polestar announced earlier this year that it would take more time to be profitable, and therefore delayed the expansion of its sales into additional countries.
Oil prices fall as US tariffs loom, OPEC+ to increase output
Oil prices dropped on Thursday, after rising 3% the previous day, as investors were wary that higher U.S. Tariffs could be reinstated and cause a drop in fuel demand. Major producers are also expected to announce a production increase.
Brent crude futures dropped 53 cents or 0.77% to $68.58 per barrel at 0536 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude fell 51 cents or 0.76% to $66.94 per barrel.
The two contracts reached their highest levels in a week on Wednesday, as Iran suspended its cooperation with the U.N. Nuclear Watchdog, raising fears that the long-running dispute over the Middle East's nuclear program could again escalate into an armed conflict. Meanwhile, the U.S. signed a preliminary deal with Vietnam.
There is still increasing uncertainty about U.S. Trade Policy, as the 90-day suspension of the application of higher tariffs ends on July 9, without any new deals being made with large trading partners like the European Union or Japan.
OPEC+, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, and its allies, such as Russia, will also likely agree to increase their production by 411,000 barrels a day (bpd) when they meet this weekend.
ING analysts wrote in a Thursday note that, given the uncertainty surrounding both events and the upcoming Independence Day holiday on July 4th in the U.S. "market participants are unlikely to want to take too much risk over the long weekend in the U.S.," they said.
A private sector survey on Thursday showed that service activity in China, which is the world's largest oil importer, had expanded at its slowest rate in nine months.
In June,
As demand declined, new export orders also decreased.
surprise build
The rise in U.S. crude oil inventories has also raised concerns about demand in the world's largest crude consumer.
Energy Information Administration reported on Wednesday that domestic crude stocks rose by 3.8 millions barrels, to 419,000,000 barrels. In a poll, analysts had predicted a drop of 1.8 millions barrels.
The weekly gasoline demand dropped to 8,6 million barrels a day, causing concern about the consumption during peak summer driving in the United States.
Analysts said that the market will closely monitor the release of Thursday's key U.S. employment report to determine the timing and depth of Federal Reserve interest rate reductions in the second half this year.
Lower interest rates would spur economic activity and, in turn, increase oil demand.
Analysts caution that there is no correlation with the government data. A report of private payrolls on Wednesday showed the first contraction in two years. (Reporting from Siyi Liu and Nicole Jao, in Singapore; editing by Christian Schmollinger).
(source: Reuters)