Latest News

Inflation data ahead of the stock market's best month since 2023

The dollar flirted with its first annual rise as traders awaited key inflation data, and assessed Washington's latest tariff bluster.

Investors have tried to ride the roller coaster of news this week after a U.S. federal appeals court temporarily restored tariffs that were temporarily blocked by a U.S. district court.

The initial decline in European stock prices on Friday was followed by a 0.3%-1% gain despite the unexpected drop in German retail sales. Wall Street futures began to slump again before U.S. inflation data is due later.

The main MSCI world index has risen over 5% in the last month, while the dollar is tantalizingly near to its first month of positive growth since 2025.

The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury rates, which are a proxy of U.S. borrowing cost, rose 0.5 basis points during European trade. On Thursday, they had fallen on the back of weak economic data and an auction for 7-year bonds.

Investors were also alarmed by a provision that was not widely publicized in Trump's proposed budget. This would have allowed the government to tax foreign investments up to 20 percent.

Elias Haddad, a strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman, said that the One Big Beautiful Bill Act's foreign tax provision was alarming. He added that the uncertainty created by the act raised the possibility of "stagflation" in the United States.

The oil prices are on course for a second successive weekly decline on expectations of a further OPEC+ production hike. However, they were still up on the day as well as for the entire month.

Investors were also worried about the Japanese debt level and tariff impact.

The yen gained as much as 2 percent from its Thursday low and was trading at around 144 dollars per yen in London. The euro and the pound both fell 0.3% and 0.1% to $1.13 and $1.3 respectively.

Hong Kong's Hang Seng fell 1.2% in Asia. Apple suppliers were also hit by the U.S. tariff reverse. Blue chips on the mainland also fell 0.5%, despite both posting solid gains for the month. Korean stocks performed even better than the world index, achieving their best month in November 2023.

In the meantime, an index that tracks emerging market currencies has gained about 2% in a month. This is the best performance since November 2023. Gold prices on the rise have helped Ghana cedi to rocket by nearly 40% in this month.

Rodrigo Catril is a senior FX Strategist at National Australia Bank. He said that Trump's trade agenda was still alive and well, but the legal battle added yet another layer to uncertainty.

He said, "The only thing more certain than more uncertainty is more certainty."

The Trump administration has said that despite the drama in the courts, negotiations with the top trading partners continue unabated.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated in an interview with Fox News, that he would be meeting with a high level Japanese delegation on Friday evening in Washington. However, he noted that talks with China had "a little stalled".

(source: Reuters)