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Modi declares that Pakistan will not receive water from rivers controlled by India
Indian Prime Minister Narendra modi reaffirmed on Thursday that Pakistan would not be able to access water from rivers where India holds rights. This was a further escalation of rhetoric in the standoff over access to water sparked by a deadly Indian Kashmir attack. In an interview, Pakistan's chief lawyer said that Islamabad was willing to talk about water sharing with its neighbours, but India had to stick to the decades-old treaty. India announced last month that it would suspend the Indus Waters treaty as part of a series of measures in response to the attack on Indian Kashmir, which New Delhi attributed to Islamabad. Pakistan denies this charge. A move to deny Pakistan the right to access water would be devastating. The Indus Treaty, which was negotiated in 1960 by the World Bank, ensures that 80% of Pakistani farms will have access to water from three rivers flowing from India. Before agreeing on a ceasefire, the nuclear-armed neighbors had already fought in their most intense military conflict in almost three decades. Pakistan will have to pay for each terrorist attack. Pakistan's military will be responsible. Modi told a crowd at an event in Rajasthan, a state bordering Pakistan that the Pakistani economy would pay hefty price for every terrorist attack. Mansoor Awan, Pakistan's Attorney general, said that Pakistan was willing to discuss or address any concerns. He said India wrote to Pakistan in recent days, citing population increase and clean energy requirements as reasons for modifying the treaty. He said that any discussion would be subject to the terms of the Treaty. Awan, a spokesperson for Islamabad, said that the treaty was legally binding and that no party could unilaterally suspend it. He added that "as far as Pakistan was concerned, the treaty was very much operational and functional and India did everything at its own risk and cost in terms of building any hydroelectric projects." The ceasefire has been mostly maintained. Subrahmanyam Jishankar, the Indian Foreign Minister, said that there are no active exchanges of gunfire and that "forces have been repositioned accordingly". "The military operation is continuing because it's a clear signal... that there will be a reaction if we see acts like the ones on April 22." Jaishankar said to Dutch news outlet NOS that "we will strike the terrorists". He added, "If terrorists are in Pakistan we will strike them there." Since 1947, when India and Pakistan were separated from British India, they have had a tense relationship. They have fought two wars over the Himalayan region called Kashmir, which both countries claim but only rule in part. India accuses Pakistan that it supports islamist separatists within Kashmir. Islamabad, however, denies this claim. In Pakistan's volatile Balochistan Province, a suicide blast on a school bus killed five people including three children on Wednesday. India has rejected the accusations of Pakistan's Prime Minister and Military that "Indian terror proxy" was involved. Since the attack in April, both nations have responded by closing their borders, suspending visas and stopping trade. (Reporting and editing by YPrajesh, Andrew Heavens and Sakshi Dayal)
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Scientists in the US predict a hurricane season above normal for 2025
Scientists from the U.S. Government said that they expected a hurricane season above normal in 2025. They expect three to five hurricanes of major intensity with winds sustained at a minimum of 111 miles per hour (179 km/h). According to the U.S. National Weather Service, 13 to 19 tropical storms will be named with winds at least 39 mph during the Atlantic hurricane season that begins June 1. Six to ten of these storms are expected to develop into hurricanes with wind speeds greater than 74mph. Ken Graham, Director of the National Weather Service, said that the main contributor to this is the warmer sea surface temperature. Both academic and private forecasters have given similar predictions for the current hurricane season that continues until November 30. In the Atlantic between 1991 and 2020 there were an average of 14.4 tropical storms named annually, with 3.2 major hurricanes on average among 7.2 hurricanes. Colorado State University's meteorologists predicted in early April that the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season will be above normal, with 17 named storms and nine hurricanes. Four of these are expected to be major. AccuWeather released its hurricane season forecast for 2025 in late March. The private weather service predicts between three and five hurricanes major out of seven to ten hurricanes, from thirteen to 18 named Tropical Storms. The hurricane season of 2024 was the most expensive on record. Five major hurricanes were among the 11 named storms that made up 18 hurricanes. The storms of 2024 caused the deaths of 427 individuals and total losses of $130 billion. (Reporting and editing by Nia Williams in Houston, Erwin Seba)
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Treasury yields fall, US stocks increase with technology; investors evaluate US tax bill
The 30-year U.S. bond yields rose to their highest level in nearly a year before they eased on Thursday. Worries about the U.S. budget outlook and demand for debt remained, but Wall Street stocks gained ground with tech-related gains. After recent losses, the U.S. Dollar has strengthened. The U.S. House of Representatives approved President Donald Trump's proposed tax bill with a single-vote, increasing concerns about the debt burden of the country. The bill would provide new tax breaks for car loans and tips, and increase spending on border enforcement and the military. Moody's was the last major credit rating agency to remove the U.S. from its triple-A rating. The yield on the 30-year U.S. bond was last down 3.2 basis point at 5.0573%. Weak demand for Wednesday's $16 billion in 20-year bonds increased worries about the interest rate on U.S. government debt. The yields on benchmark German 20-year bonds had reached their highest level in two months. U.S. stock prices rose on Thursday, after a sharp drop in the previous session. Jake Dollarhide is the chief executive officer of Longbow Asset Management, located in Tulsa. The market is a safe haven for technology at this time. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 51.28 points or 0.12% to 41,912.24, while the S&P 500 rose 8.79 points or 0.15% to 5,853.45. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq Composite grew 118.49 or 0.63% to 18,990.84. Alphabet shares rose 2.5% and the sector of communication services grew 0.9%. The MSCI index of global stocks fell by 1.92 points (0.22%) to 872.01. The pan-European STOXX 600 fell 0.72%. Figures showed that the British government borrowed more in April than was expected, and euro zone businesses unexpectedly returned to contraction. After the data, the euro fell while the U.S. Dollar rose after three consecutive days of losses. The euro fell 0.44% to $1.1279. The dollar rose 0.1% in late morning New York trading to 143.75yen, after dropping earlier to 142.80yen, its lowest level since May 7. Bitcoin, on the other hand, has risen to a new high partly because investors are looking for alternatives to U.S.-based assets. According to the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office, Trump's tax cut bill will add $3.8 billion to the $36.2 trillion of U.S. debt in the next decade. The oil price was affected by a report that OPEC+ has discussed a production boost for July. U.S. crude dropped 1.45% to $60.69 per barrel. Brent was down to $63.93 a barrel, a drop of 1.51% for the day.
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US backs Republican states in BlackRock Climate Case
U.S. antitrust enforcers backed up on Thursday the arguments used by Republican states accusing asset managers BlackRock Vanguard State Street and State Street, of conspiring to reduce coal production through climate activism. The U.S. Department of Justice filed a statement of interests in the case in which Texas and 12 other States claim that the companies used their significant holdings in U.S. Coal companies to discourage the competition. The agencies asked the judge in Tyler, Texas to reject the asset managers' arguments in their bid for dismissal, including the argument that the alleged misconduct falls under an exemption applicable to passive investors. In their court brief, the agencies stated that the case involves the exact type of conduct, such as concerted efforts by the companies to reduce production, that has been long condemned under antitrust laws. BlackRock stated that forcing asset management companies to divest their coal holdings would hurt the companies' ability to access capital and increase energy prices. State Street claimed that it acts in the best interests of its investors, and that the lawsuit was baseless. Vanguard reiterated that it will defend its previous comment that it will safeguard its history in protecting returns for investors. First reported on Thursday, the agencies are expected to support state arguments. This is a major political setback for top asset managers. BlackRock, Vanguard, and State Street, which together have $27 trillion, are under fire by conservative Republicans from states that produce energy. They claim the firms put social and environmental concerns ahead of maximising returns for customers. BlackRock is, for example, facing restrictions or outright bans from managing public assets, in states such as Texas and Indiana, due to its ESG policies. In February, there were signs of thawing when BlackRock led a consortium that bought ports near the strategically important Panama Canal. The deal was hailed as a success by U.S. president Donald Trump. Asset managers call the case "half baked" and claim there is no proof that they demanded a reduction in output. U.S. district judge Jeremy Kernodle will hear arguments in June on the asset manager's bid to dismiss the lawsuit. (Reporting and editing by J. Godoy, Ross Kerber and Chris Sanders; Nick Zieminski and Matthew Lewis)
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Rio Tinto searches widely for new CEO in contrast to BHP's strong bench
Rio Tinto will be casting a wide net when it searches for a new chief executive officer due to the fact that there is a short list of internal candidates. This is in contrast to BHP's laser-focused succession plan. Rio Tinto, the largest iron ore mining company in the world, surprised investors on Thursday by announcing that CEO Jakob Stausholm would step down at the end of the year, once a new successor has been appointed. The company did not give a reason for its decision. A source with knowledge of the matter stated that the board held meetings in the last few months on succession with the assistance of executive recruitment firm MWM Consulting. They vetted internal candidates such as Bold Baatar and Simon Trott, while also looking for external leaders. The next generation of mining leaders must be more aggressive. "There's less of it around, and they will need to take more risks to get that," said a person who consults top executives in the industry. The two mining giants have been in the process of changing their CEOs at a crucial time. This is because the demand for copper in various technologies, including artificial intelligence and clean energy transition, has become critical. The year 2024 was marked by a febrile atmosphere as the diversified miner companies failed to pull off major M&A deals. Both companies could hope for success with new leadership. Baatar (Singapore), Rio's Chief Commercial Officer, is a candidate who has received a lot of support from Rio's own internal candidates. In a note, RBC analysts stated that Baatar’s communication skills, portfolio knowledge and ability to solve problems (as demonstrated during his time at the Oyu Tolgoi Mine in Mongolia and Simandou Mine in Guinea) will be key for Rio. The Mongolian has held leadership positions at Rio in the marine and iron ore divisions. In 2016, he joined the Executive Committee, running the Energy & Minerals group before heading the copper division. Trott is the head of iron ore at Rio. He has been with Rio for more than 20 years. In Australia, Trott brought its largest new iron ore mining in over a decade to market. Trott also oversees a massive programme of replacement tons. Investors have reacted negatively to his leadership, citing the fact that Rio's ore exports have declined in quality and production has fallen short. Outside candidates Pecresse joined the company in October 2023 from General Electric Renewable Energy. Prior to this, he worked for Alstom and Imerys. He is regarded as an understated, sharp leader. His wife is French politician Valerie Pecresse. Other candidates include former Rio de Janeiro veterans Newmont CEO Tom Palmer and Andrew Cole, the previous OZ Minerals chief executive officer. This is in contrast to BHP, which has a strong internal team and where the CEO, Mike Henry, is expected to depart within the next year. A new CEO was announced at the time. BHP rotates its top talent regularly through key roles to ensure it has the depth and breadth of expertise available. As a pre-screening process, the board chair and other members mentor internal CEO candidates for many years, according to a source with knowledge of the company. In 2016, the company committed to having 40% of its staff be women by 2025. It is currently on track to meet that goal, and two of its top contenders are female. Geraldine Slattery, BHP's Australia President, is well-liked by investors because of her operational expertise. She previously led BHP's Texas petroleum business. She has worked at BHP for over 30 years. One investor described her as "steely". CFO Vandita Pant has been hailed as a calm and collected person in these uncertain geopolitical circumstances. She helped guide ABN Amro through the depths of the global financial crises, and worked at RBS with BHP’s new chairman, former RBS CEO Ross McEwan. Pant joined BHP as of 2016. Investors have suggested that her background in finance, and not operations, could be a weakness.
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Ramco Cement reports a slump in profits, but forecasts higher prices for south India
Ramco Cements reported on Thursday that it expects to see an improvement in cement prices in the key South India market. This comes after Ramco Cements reported a decline in profits for its fourth quarter, due in part to low prices and lower volume in a traditionally strong season. The adjusted net profit for the cement business fell by over 76%, to 384.3 millions rupees ($4.5million) in the third quarter ending March 31. The company recorded a gain of 108.3 millions rupees from the sale of excess lands and investments. The company said that "in southern region, average cement prices improved during the first two month of FY26...the company believes prices will continue to improve amid the increasing pace of cement capacity expansion (in the area)". Jefferies reported earlier this month that South India, where Ramco gets three-fourths its volumes, had lagged behind other regions in the country when it came to pricing growth. However, Jefferies now says South India is climbing out of this lull. This will benefit both companies such as Dalmia Bharat and Ramco, which have a strong focus in the South. It also benefits other large players in the market like UltraTech and Ambuja, who have signed back-to-back deals to expand their capacity. Ramco reported that its sales volume fell by 4% during the quarter. Normally, Ramco's sales are strong because favorable weather encourages construction and cement demand. Ambit Capital data also showed that the average cement price in India was 2% less than it had been a year earlier for the quarter reported. Analysts on average estimated a 0.4% decline in revenues, but the actual fall was over 10%. Ramco said that the recent tax imposed by Tamil Nadu on limestone mining - which is used to make cement - will increase production costs per ton by 200 rupees. The company stated that the levy was "the highest in the nation... through the industry association, the Tamil Nadu cement manufacturers have requested relief to the government, which is currently being considered." $1 = 85.9750 Indian Rupees (Reporting and editing by Sumana Mandy in Bengaluru, and Shailesh Kuber)
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The US Senate votes to block California's 2035 electric vehicle regulations
The U.S. Senate voted on Thursday to block California's historic plan to stop selling gasoline-only cars by 2035. This plan has been adopted and endorsed by 11 states, representing one third of the U.S. automobile market. The measure is sent to President Donald Trump to repeal the waiver that was granted by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency in December under the former president Joe Biden, which allowed California to mandate 80% electric cars by 2035. The vote was a victory for General Motors and Toyota, and other automakers who heavily lobbied to oppose the rules. It is also a blow to California as well as environmental groups which claim that the requirements were essential to ensure cleaner vehicles and reduce pollution. The Alliance for Automotive Innovation (representing GM, Toyota Volkswagen, Hyundai, Stellantis, and others) commended the vote. John Bozzella, CEO of the group, said: "These EV sales mandates never could have been achieved." In reality, to meet the mandates it would be necessary to divert finite capital away from the EV Transition in order for Tesla compliance credits. Tesla has not yet commented. The latest of a number of initiatives launched in recent months to target electric vehicles. The U.S. House of Representatives passed a bill on Thursday that would eliminate a $7.500 tax credit on new electric vehicles. It would also impose a $250 annual fee for road repairs and repeal vehicle emission rules intended to encourage automakers to build more EVs. The rule, if upheld by courts, will allow automakers to cancel or delay some EV production. California's rule requires 35% of the light-duty vehicles for 2026 to be zero emission models. Automakers claim that they cannot meet this figure, given the current EV sales which are as low as 10% in some states.
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The head of BHP Escondida's mine, BHP Escondida, says Chile must do much more to encourage investment
SANTIAGO (May 22) - Alejandro Tapia of Escondida Copper Mine, the largest in the world, spoke at the ChileDay Investment Conference in New York on Thursday. Why it's important Chile will be the largest copper producer in the world by 2024, with a share of nearly one quarter. The regulatory process in the country and its delays have been criticized by miners. Large-scale investments are needed to increase production and offset global shortages as ore grades decline around the country. Key Quote(s) The significant increase in copper demand could attract new major investments to Chile if we can provide legal certainty, fiscal stabilty, and a faster, modern permitting system. "I want to summarize by highlighting the central message. Growth, permits, and environment legislation should be an immediate priority if we are to make the most of the enormous opportunity that we have in this country, when the world needs 70% more copper in 2050 than they do today." He added, "It is a regulatory matter that we can improve in order to unlock investment." CONTEXT Escondida, the largest copper mine in the world, is where BHP will invest $10 billion if the environmental permits are granted. BHP announced that it would begin its 10-year investment plan by optimizing its concentrator for $2 billion. BY THE NUMBERS According to the Chilean State Copper Commission, Chilean copper production will grow 4.9% by 2024 to reach 5.5 million tons. Escondida will produce 1.28 million tonnes in 2024. BHP expects global copper demand to reach 31 million tonnes in 2023 and grow at a rate of 1 million tons per year until 2035. What's next? Chile's Congress is currently considering a bill that would streamline several permit processes. Reporting by Fabian Andres Cambero, Editing by Alexander Villegas & David Gregorio
Bond sales continue as US House passes Trump’s 'big beautiful tax bill'
Bond vigilantes continue to monitor global debt markets, keeping dollar and stock prices subdued as the U.S. House of Representatives passes President Donald Trump's 'big beautiful' tax bill with a single-vote.
Wall Street was expected to open slightly higher on Thursday after it fell on Wednesday, when the lackluster sales of long-term U.S. government bonds and Japanese debt highlighted the growing unease over rising government debt.
This reinforced the "Sell America' narrative in the minds of investors after Moody's became the last major credit rating agency to strip the U.S. from its coveted Triple-A status last week.
The yields on the benchmark German 20-year bond reached their highest level in two months, as global yield curves steepened.
Figures showed that the British government borrowed more in April than was expected, and euro zone businesses unexpectedly returned to contraction.
The stock markets of London, Paris and Milan were all between 0.75% to 1% lower. The dollar's strength against the Japanese yen was its lowest in two weeks. Bitcoin reached a new high as investors looked for alternatives to U.S. investments.
The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, a non-partisan organization, estimates that the U.S. Bill, which extends Trump's 2017 tax cuts and boosts military spending as well as other expenditures, will add $3.8 trillion to the U.S. debt of $36 trillion in the next decade.
Michael Metcalfe, State Street Global Markets, said: "It is good news that fiscal stimuli are coming because markets were worried about recession risks. But there is also concern about fiscal stability."
I think that the dollar is a bellwether here. It shows that the confidence in U.S. policies has been affected if it doesn't respond to higher yields.
The 30-year Treasury bond yields - which are a proxy of super-long-term U.S. borrowing costs – reached 5.13% - their highest level since October 2023 - and the yield on 20-year Treasury bonds hit 5.14% - its highest level since November 2023.
Japan's bond market has also been under scrutiny, given its high debt-to GDP ratio. The 30-year JGB's yield was hovering at 3,169%, which is not far off the record high of 3.185% hit the previous session.
After Wall Street's tumble on Wednesday, stocks in Asia also fell. MSCI's broadest Asia-Pacific share index outside Japan finished 0.6% lower while Japan's Nikkei dropped 0.8% due to the stronger yen.
Francesco Pesole is a FX strategist with ING.
Pesole said that the theme of "Sell America" is clearly negative for the dollar.
TRADE DEAL PROGRESS
The oil price dropped by more than 1.5% after a report that the OPEC+ countries are planning to increase production for July.
Brent futures in Europe fell $1 or 1.5% to $63.98 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas intermediate crude fell 97 cents or 1.58% to $60.60.
Investors are also nervous about the slow progress made to date in trade agreements.
The Group of Seven's meeting in Canada was also a focus of attention. Finance ministers there had given a positive spin to discussions to reach a consensus on a communique that would largely cover non-tariff matters.
Investors are looking for any hint that currency markets may be included in trade negotiations. But Thai and Japanese officials claimed that currency markets were never discussed.
Bitcoin was not concerned about such things. It reached a record high of $111,862.98, which is a 3.3% rise from the Wednesday close.
The move comes amid the hope that soon to be finalised U.S. stabilcoin regulations will continue to bring cryptocurrency assets into mainstream.
Standard Chartered's Geoff Kendrick stated that "my official Bitcoin forecasts are 120k by the end of Q2, 200k by 2025, and 500k by 2028."
(source: Reuters)