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Dollar softens as global shares rise amid tariff truce
Global shares and Wall Street rose on an ease in trade tensions, while the U.S. Dollar extended its losses after benign U.S. Inflation data kept Federal Reserve rates on hold. The U.S. China trade truce has dimmed the appeal of gold as a safe-haven. After four sessions of gains, European shares slowed down. Asian shares gained. The MSCI index of global stocks rose by 2.24 points or 0.26 percent to 873.44. Investors have driven global equity markets higher as a truce between China and the United States in their tariff spat appears to be putting a pause on the global trade conflict, even though European shares took a break on Wednesday. Lars Skovgaard is a senior investment strategist with Danske Bank. He added, "I find it hard to believe that we will return to the extreme political noise." Wall Street saw the Dow Jones Industrial Average rise 64.35 points or 0.15% to 42,204.78. The S&P 500 rose 0.04 points or 0.04% to 5,888.81, and the Nasdaq Composite climbed 72.27 points or 0.38% to 19,082.35. The STOXX Europe 600 Index has retreated, after it had risen over 17% from its low on April 9, when U.S. president Donald Trump announced that he would suspend most reciprocal tariffs against U.S. trading partner. The MSCI broadest Asia-Pacific share index outside Japan closed up 1.56% to 614.33, while Japan's Nikkei dropped 55.13 points or 0.14% to 38,128.13. The Topix broader index snapped its longest winning streak in 16 years, a run of 13 days. Hong Kong's Hang Seng index rose, lifted by technology stocks after Chinese online retailer JD.com announced strong results. Tencent, China’s largest tech company, reported a 13% increase in revenue for the first quarter on Wednesday. This week, the focus will be on Alibaba's earnings on Thursday. Investors who were worried about inflationary effects of U.S. Tariff Policies, which severely undermined expectations of Fed rate reductions in the near term, also found some relief from data on Tuesday that showed softer than expected U.S. Consumer inflation. Although traders expect the inflation rate to rise as tariffs increase import costs, there is still uncertainty about the future as Washington continues to negotiate with its trading partners. Wei He is a China economist with Gavekal. He said that the U.S. tariffs against Chinese products are still higher than a few months ago. There's still a lot of uncertainty in the future. In an interview with CNN on Tuesday, Trump said he would be willing to deal directly with Chinese President Xi Jinping over the details of a new trade agreement. The "potential" deals that Trump has been touting with India, Japan, and South Korea have not yet materialized. Assessing Tariff Impact The Fed warned of increasing economic uncertainty and indicated that it was prepared to wait until the U.S. Tariffs are fully assessed before reducing interest rates. Jerome Powell, the Fed chair, is set to make remarks on Thursday. The U.S. Dollar, which has been beaten recently by the uncertainty in the economy and policies, dropped 0.24% versus a basket including the yen, the euro and other currencies. Bank of America’s Global Fund Manager Survey (FMS) revealed on Tuesday that global asset managers had their largest underweight position against the dollar in nearly 19 years as Trump’s trade policy reduced investor appetite for U.S.-based assets. The euro rose 0.25% to $1.1212. Investors weighed the April inflation data, which was lower than expected, against expectations of higher tariffs in the future months. Euro zone yields Then retreated. Retail sales data for the month of April, due Thursday, will be a major indicator for U.S. economy health. On the same day, Russia and Ukraine will hold talks in Istanbul in hopes of reaching a ceasefire after three years in Europe's deadliest conflict since World War Two. The rising U.S. stockpiles of crude oil have pushed down prices in commodities. Brent crude futures dropped to $66.07 a barrel, a drop of 0.84% for the day. U.S. crude oil fell by 0.91%, to $63.09 per barrel Spot gold dropped 1.96%, to $3.183.69 per ounce.
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Ukraine Finance Minister: country strong despite "financial gaps"
Serhii Marchenko, Ukrainian Finance Minister, said that there is a financial gap in the budget of Ukraine for next year. However, he added that Ukraine was stronger than a year earlier and able to continue defending itself. Marchenko said that the recent mineral deal signed between the United States and Ukraine could also help Washington to better understand Ukraine. He said that the United States had made "very good progress" in strengthening their relationship. This was during a panel at the annual meeting for the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development held in London. I hope that it will definitely bring investment to Ukraine. Ukraine's relationship with Donald Trump has been turbulent. He had promised, upon taking office in January, to bring an end to the Russian war quickly. On Thursday, peace talks will take place in Turkey, but it's unclear if Trump, Russian president Vladimir Putin, or Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy will be attending. Marchenko stated that Ukrainian officials worked with U.S. officials in order to demonstrate their "eagerness" and "respect for the United States." He said: "It's in our best interest to find - I emphasize all possible methods - to work with the United States to help resolve this conflict."
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Senator says that the US Department of Health will reverse the federal layoffs for coal safety workers
Shelley Moore Capito, West Virginia Republican senator and former federal employee who screens coal miners for black lungs disease and conducts research on other respiratory diseases who were terminated in a sweeping government layoff have their jobs permanently restored. According to an email sent to employees by the Department of Health and Human Services on Wednesday, they make up a significant percentage of 313 workers who were notified by the Department that their layoff notifications were rescinded. NIOSH has nearly 1,500 full-time employees in eight offices throughout the world. United States Capito stated in a press release that Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the Secretary of Health and Human Services, had assured her that HHS reversed terminations at the NIOSH facility located in Morgantown West Virginia. In a press release, she stated that "my understanding is from Secretary Kennedy that over 100 Morgantown workers will return to their jobs permanently." NIOSH operates a coal mine surveillance unit, which has been effectively closed since February due to sweeping layoffs by Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency. This is despite the fact that black lung disease, a deadly respiratory condition affecting coal miners of all ages - including those in their 30s - continues to recur. Reports had stated that these potential job cuts as well as the cuts made at the Mine Health Safety Administration put miners in danger, even though President Donald Trump was calling for a revival of coal. Status of NIOSH employees has been changing. Some workers were brought back from administrative leave in the beginning of this month, only to find out a few days later that their employment was terminated permanently. Capito stated that she spoke with Kennedy several times, urging him to keep the coal worker surveillance program. According to internal emails, the agency intends to continue with the majority of its planned layoffs despite the return of some NIOSH workers to full-time employment. John Howard's director sent a letter to NIOSH staff on Tuesday, stating that he was calling back some terminated employees. This included employees from the Respiratory Health Division, which includes the coal mine monitoring unit, the National Personal Protective Technology Laboratory, the Division of Safety Research, and the Division of Compensation and Analysis Support. The World Trade Center Health Program also employs 15 full-time staff to provide support for 9/11 first responders who are ill. Two sources familiar with the story said that 18 of 28 DECA staffers who handle compensation claims for former nuclear workers who have cancer were also brought back. Kennedy will appear before Congress on Tuesday, and he's likely to be asked about the mass layoffs that occurred at HHS.
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Gold prices drop to a new low after trade optimism increases
The gold price dropped by more than 2%, reaching a new low of over a month, as investors shifted away from bullion due to rising risk appetite. As of 1011 ET (14.10 GMT), spot gold fell to its lowest level since April 11 and dropped 1.8% to $3.188.52 per ounce. Bullion dropped as low as $3.174.62 in an earlier session. U.S. Gold Futures declined 1.7% to $3192.80. Tai Wong is an independent metals dealer. He said, "The global relief rallies sparked by steep reductions in U.S. - China tariffs have triggered a corrective movement through technical levels of gold." Wall Street's major indexes began higher on Monday, with the deal over tariffs and expectations for more trade agreements driving their gains. Washington and Beijing have agreed to drastically reduce tariffs and adopted a 90 day pause as the details are worked out. In an interview with CNN on Tuesday, Donald Trump said he would be willing to negotiate directly with Chinese President Xi Jinping about the details of a new trade agreement. He said "potential deals", with India, Japan and South Korea are in the works. Last month, gold, a precious metal that is considered a safe place in times of economic and geopolitical turmoil, reached a new record of $3,500.05. Prices have risen by 21.6% this year. Fawad Rasaqzada is a market analyst for City Index and FOREX.com. He said: "While the trend in the long term remains bullish, it wouldn't surprise me if the momentum continued to be bearish for a couple of more days." The first target for the downside is $3,136. Next, it's $3,073 then $3,000, and finally, the biggest level. After softer than expected consumer data, traders are now waiting for the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) to be released on Thursday. This will provide clues as to the Federal Reserve's policy direction. As a zero-yielding investment, lower interest rates make bullion more appealing. Silver spot fell by 1.8%, to $32.29 per ounce. Platinum dropped 0.5%, to $983.42. Palladium increased 0.1%, to $957.65. (Reporting by Sarah Qureshi in Bengaluru; Editing by Tasim Zahid)
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EU prepared to slow down in US trade negotiations in pursuit of a bigger deal
Scott Bessent, the U.S. Treasury secretary, said this week that Switzerland and Britain were in the lead for a deal with the United States. He warned the European Union to move "much more slowly". Brussels isn't too worried. The EU believes that its size is an advantage when it comes to trading. Senior EU officials claim that as one of the top three economies in the world, the EU won't back down and is looking for a better trade deal with Washington. The clock is ticking. The EU is trying to prevent a trade relationship worth $1.7 trillion from escalating into a full-blown war of transatlantic trade. "We don't feel weak. "We do not feel that we are under excessive pressure to accept an agreement, which would be unfair for us," EU trade chief Maros Sfcovic stated last week. Sefcovic spoke before Bessent's remarks in Geneva. Washington and Beijing had agreed to cut tariffs by over 100%, and halt their trade war. The stance of Brussels remains unchanged. If negotiations fail during the 90-day pause, additional "reciprocal tariffs" -- totaling a combined 20 percent in the EU case -- are planned. The threat of further tariffs also includes pharmaceuticals, semiconductors and critical minerals as well as lumber and trucks. EU trade officials who have been involved in the Washington negotiations say that they are having difficulty understanding President Donald Trump's goals for trade. The European Commission's Ursula von der Leyen, who is the President of the European Commission, has yet to meet Trump in a formal setting since Trump reclaimed his presidency as president of the United States in January. They only exchanged words briefly during Pope Francis’s funeral at Vatican. Trump later praised von der Leyen as "fantastic", and added "I hope that we will meet." She replied: "If I'm going to the White House I want a package that we can discuss." Her comments reflect Europe's desire for a comprehensive trade deal, and not one that is a quick win in politics but has a limited scope. This was the case with the Washington-London agreement. Tough Talks According to US data, the EU-US trade volume is six times greater than that of US-UK. Europe believes that its weight counts in negotiations. "I'm not sure that the EU is going to have to adopt any template," Lithuanian Finance Minister Rimantas Sazius said on the sidelines a meeting of EU finance ministers. Eurointelligence analysts pointed out that the EU needs to prepare for discussions that go beyond trade. White House officials said that Europe must lower non-tariff trade barriers, such as those created by the value-added taxes and regulations governing food and automobile safety. If the EU is to progress in this field, it might need to reconsider its approach. Eurointelligence's briefing note stated that Maros Sfcovic could only speak about trade in its narrowest sense. "He cannot even promise to lower the regulatory barriers." Washington appeared to ignore the value-added (VAT) tax, which Trump has referred to as a trade barrier in its agreement with London. Britain did not reduce its digital services tax or loosen food standards on beef imports. Both of these were criticised by Washington. Washington and Brussels have had a difficult time negotiating so far. Christian Kohlpaintner, CEO of German chemicals company Brenntag, said that he thought the EU handled negotiations "very sensibly". He told reporters in an earnings call Wednesday that the 90-day period is a "sedative." "But not (a cure) that provides clarity on the future development in the markets." Simon Evenett is a professor at the IMD Business School. He said that the US-UK agreement and Washington's truce in Beijing indicated that a 10% general tariff and 25% for specific sectors was the baseline. He said that Wall Street’s reaction would be able to tame excessiveness, after Trump was convinced by Wall Street’s reaction. This could help to contain any U.S.-EU trade conflicts, as broader trade and investments ties are valued at $9.5 trillion per year. It could take a long time and be very difficult. "I can see the EU facing tariffs and a deadlock," he said. (Reporting and editing by Toby Chopra; Additional reporting by Ozan Masoni in Milan, Danilo Ergenay at Gdansk; Reporting by Philip Blenkinsop)
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EPA will roll back 'forever chemicals' rule and extend timelines
The EPA announced Wednesday that it will rescind a large part of the first national drinking water standard of the Biden Administration, which was designed to protect people from "forever chemicals", also known as PFAS, found in household products. However, two of these chemicals will remain within current limits. The "forever chemicals", as they are called, do not break down easily in the body or in the environment. They can be found in hundreds consumer and commercial products including non-stick pans (non-stick), cosmetics, firefighting sprays, and stain resistant clothing. The EPA's rule, finalized under the Biden administration last year, set limits for five PFAS chemicals, PFOA, PFOS PFNA PFHxS and HFPO DA. The rule gave public water systems three year to monitor for these chemicals, and required that they inform the public about the levels of PFAS in their drinking waters. If PFAS levels exceed the standard, water systems are required to install systems that reduce PFAS to their drinking water before 2029. The EPA's new proposal, under the leadership of President Donald Trump would give drinking water systems additional time to develop plans to address PFOA and PFOS. It would also extend the date by which these two PFAS chemicals must be in compliance to 2031. The government would also rescind regulations and re-evaluate the regulatory decisions for the three other PFAS chemicals. EPA intends to release a proposed regulation this fall, and finalize the rule by spring 2026. In a press release, EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin stated that the program would help water systems throughout the United States, including those in small rural communities, to combat these contaminants. "EPA will continue to use its enforcement and regulatory tools to hold polluters responsible." Separately on Tuesday, New Jersey announced the $450 million settlement with 3M that it called its largest statewide PFAS settlement in state history. The EPA announced Wednesday that it would launch a campaign titled PFAS OUT, to reach out to every public water utility in need of capital improvements for PFAS removal from their system. (Reporting and Editing by William Maclean, Valerie Volcovici)
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What are the risks and outlines of a potential Ukraine peace deal?
What are the possible contours of a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine? SECURITY GUARANTEE Ukraine, which has been subjected to a full scale invasion in 2022, and witnessed Russia annex Crimea, needs security guarantees from major powers, primarily the United States. The Budapest Memorandum of 1994, in which the U.S., Russia and Britain agreed to refrain from using force against Ukraine and respect Ukrainian sovereignty was not enough for the Ukrainian government. The powers agreed to take the matter to the United Nations Security Council in the event of an attack on Ukraine. Sources involved in the talks say that the problem is that any security agreement that does not have teeth will leave Ukraine vulnerable. Diplomats in draft proposals of a possible settlement for peace, seen by us, spoke about a "robust guarantee" including a possible agreement similar to Article 5. Article 5 of NATO's treaty binds allies together to defend one another in the event of a military attack. Ukraine is not part of NATO. According to a draft of the failed 2022 agreement, Ukraine had agreed to permanent neutrality as part of a deal with the five permanent members on the U.N. Security Council - Britain, China France, Russia, the United States and other nations such as Belarus, Canada Germany Israel, Poland, and Turkey. Officials in Kyiv, however, say that they will not accept neutrality for Ukraine. NATO AND NEUTRALITY Russia has said repeatedly that a possible NATO membership by Kyiv is inacceptable and that Ukraine should be neutral, with no foreign bases. Zelenskiy said that it was not up to Moscow to decide Ukraine’s alliances. NATO leaders in Bucharest agreed to admit Ukraine and Georgia as members one day at the Bucharest Summit of 2008. In 2019, Ukraine amended its constitution to commit to full membership in NATO and the European Union. U.S. ambassador General Keith Kellogg said that NATO membership for Ukraine was "off the table". Donald Trump said that the U.S.'s past support of Ukraine's NATO membership was the cause of war. Ukraine and Russia discussed neutrality in 2022. According to a draft of an agreement, Russia wants limits placed on the Ukrainian military. Ukraine is opposed to any restrictions on the size or capabilities of its military. Russia has stated that it does not object to Ukraine's EU membership bid, although some members of the EU could oppose Kyiv’s bid. Territorial Moscow claims to control about a fifth (or a fifth) of Ukraine, and that the territory now belongs formally to Russia. This is a position that most countries don't accept. In 2014, Russia annexed Crimea. According to Russian estimates, Russian forces control nearly all of Luhansk and more than 70% Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia regions. Russia controls a small part of Kharkiv. Putin's most detailed peace proposals, which he outlined in June of 2024, stated that Ukraine would be required to withdraw from all these regions, including those not currently under Russian rule. According to a draft plan of peace drafted by the Trump Administration, the U.S. will de jure recognize Russian control over Crimea and de facto acknowledge Russian control over Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson, Zaporizhzhia and other parts. Ukraine would gain territory in Kharkiv Region, and the U.S. will control and administrate Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant which is currently under Russian control. Kyiv has said that officially recognising Russian sovereignty over occupied territories is not possible and would be a violation of Ukraine's Constitution. However, territorial issues could be discussed in talks after a ceasefire. Steve Witkoff, a Trump envoy, told Breitbart last week that the main issues are the regions and the nuclear plant. It's also about how the Ukrainians can use the Dnieper River to reach the ocean. Sanctions Russia is in favor of Western sanctions being lifted, but it's sceptical they will happen soon. Even if US sanctions were lifted, EU sanctions and other Western sanctions such as those imposed in Australia, Britain and Canada could continue for many years. Ukraine wants sanctions to stay in place. The U.S. government has been reported to be studying ways to ease sanctions against Russia's energy industry as part of a broader plan that would allow Washington to provide swift relief in the event Moscow agreed to end the Ukraine conflict. OIL AND GAS Trump suggested that Putin who is the second largest oil exporter in the world, may be more inclined towards a resolution of the Ukraine War following the recent drop in oil price, although the Kremlin stated that national interests always trump oil pricing. Some diplomats speculate that the U.S. and Russia are looking for lower oil prices in a larger grand bargain that includes issues ranging from the Middle East to Ukraine. In the beginning of this month, it was reported that Washington and Moscow officials had held talks about how Washington could help revive Russian gas exports to Europe. CEASEFIRE Before talks can begin, European powers and Ukraine want Russia to agree to a truce. But Moscow insists that a truce will only be effective once the verification issues have been resolved. Kyiv claims that Moscow is trying to buy time. RECONSTRUCTION UKRAINE European powers are looking to utilize some of the Russian assets that have been frozen in the West, to assist Kyiv. Russia rejects this. Reports from February indicate that Russia may agree to use $300 billion in sovereign assets that are frozen in Europe as part of the reconstruction of Ukraine, but that it will insist on spending a portion of that money in the one-fifth that is controlled by Moscow's forces. Ukraine wants to use all $300 billion in assets seized for post-war reconstruction. (Reporting and editing by Gareth Jones, Guy Faulconbridge)
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MP Materials and Ma'aden will jointly develop rare Earths supply chain in Saudi
MP Materials, a U.S. rare-earths miner, announced on Wednesday that it had signed a Memorandum of Understanding with Saudi Arabia's Ma'aden mining company to jointly develop a supply chain for rare earths in the Middle Eastern nation. Why it's important The agreement was signed at the U.S. - Saudi Investment Forum where President Donald Trump obtained a $600 Billion investment from Saudi Arabia in the sectors of energy, defense, and mining. Saudi Arabia is pushing to be a global hub for critical minerals at a moment when processing minerals has become an essential for tech-focused countries looking to create their own building blocks in AI, electric cars and other sectors. CONTEXT Ma'aden, a Canadian firm, was reported to be considering a partnership in rare earths with one of four foreign companies, including MP Materials or Shenghe Resources from China, Australia's Lynas, or Canada's Neo Performance Materials. MP Materials' partnership with Ma'aden will include the mining, separation and magnet production of rare-earth minerals. KEY QUOTES James Litinsky, CEO of MP Materials, said that today's announcement was an important step in rebalancing global supply chains... particularly in robotics and AI physical - while deepening strategic alliances between the United States ad Saudi Arabia. Ma'aden's Bob Wilt, CEO of Ma'aden, said that the partnership was a vital step in establishing mining as the "third pillar" for the Saudi economy. MARKET REACTION Before the bell, shares of MP Materials rose by nearly 5%. (Reporting and editing by Krishna Chandra Eluri in Bengaluru, Vallari Srivastava from Bengaluru)
The dollar is softening on the back of tariff truces and muted inflation.
The European stock market was steady on Wednesday, as the markets took a break after a strong rally fueled by easing global tensions. Meanwhile, the dollar continued its losses from the previous day as the Federal Reserve kept the possibility of rate cuts open.
Stocks in Asia rose overnight, while U.S. futures stocks were edging higher after the S&P 500 entered positive territory for the entire year on Tuesday.
Investors have driven global equity markets higher as a truce appears to be in place in the trade war between China and the United States, even though European shares were on hold on Wednesday.
Lars Skovgaard is a senior investment strategist with Danske Bank.
He added, "I find it hard to believe that we will return to the extreme political noise."
The STOXX 600 index in Europe was little changed yesterday, after a recent rally. It has risen over 17% from its low on April 9th, the day U.S. president Donald Trump announced that he would suspend most reciprocal tariffs against U.S. trading partner.
The equity futures market pointed to Wall Street starting the year with a modestly better start.
The MSCI broadest Asia-Pacific index outside Japan rose by 1.6%. Japan's Nikkei fell 0.1%. Meanwhile, the Topix, a broader measure, ended a winning streak of 13 days, which was its longest in almost 16 years.
Hong Kong's Hang Seng index rose 2.3% after Chinese ecommerce retailer JD.com announced strong results. Tencent, China’s largest tech company, reported a 13% increase in revenue for the first quarter on Wednesday.
This week, the focus will be on Alibaba's earnings on Thursday.
Investors who were worried about inflationary effects of U.S. Tariff Policies, which severely undermined expectations of Fed rate reductions in the near future, also found some relief from data on Tuesday that showed softer than expected U.S. Consumer inflation.
Although traders expect the inflation rate to rise as tariffs increase import costs, there is still uncertainty about the future as Washington continues to negotiate with its trading partners.
Wei He is a China economist with Gavekal. He said that the U.S. tariffs against Chinese products are still higher than they used to be a few months ago.
There's still a lot of uncertainty in the future.
In an interview with CNN on Tuesday, Trump said he would be willing to deal directly with Chinese President Xi Jinping over the details of a new trade agreement. The "potential" deals that Trump has been touting with India, Japan and South Korea have not yet materialized.
Assessing Tariff Impact
The Fed warned of increasing economic uncertainty and indicated that it was prepared to wait until the U.S. Tariffs are fully assessed before reducing interest rates. Jerome Powell, the Fed chair, is set to make remarks on Thursday.
The U.S. Dollar, which has been hammered recently due to economic and political uncertainty, fell 1% against yen, reaching 146.05 and dropped 0.3% against euro. The dollar index fell 0.4%. This follows a previous 0.8% decline.
Bank of America’s Global Fund Manager Survey (FMS) revealed on Tuesday that global asset managers had their largest underweight position against the dollar in nearly 19 years as Trump’s trade policy reduced investor appetite for U.S. investments.
Retail sales figures for April, due Thursday, will be the next big indicator of the health of the U.S. economy. On the same day, Russia and Ukraine will hold talks in Istanbul in hopes of reaching a ceasefire after three years in Europe's deadliest conflict since World War Two.
U.S. crude oil fell 1.3%, to $62.84 per barrel, after hitting a record high of two weeks in the previous session.
Gold spot fell 0.3% per ounce to $3,237 as trade tensions eased and its appeal as a safe haven was weakened.
(source: Reuters)