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"Germany is back": Merz secures key support for debt deal
German Chancellor-in-waiting Friedrich Merz said on Friday he had secured the crucial backing of the Greens for a massive increase in state borrowing, clearing the way for the outgoing parliament to approve it next week. Merz's conservatives, and the Social Democrats who are currently in negotiations to form government following an election last week, proposed a 500-billion euro fund for infrastructure, and radical changes to borrowing regulations to boost defence and revitalize growth in Europe’s largest economy. The Greens have now given them the necessary two-thirds majority to pass constitutional changes. A vote is scheduled for the following week. Merz justified the need for the package to be passed by the incoming parliament, citing recent policy shifts in the United States. President Donald Trump has warned that an hostile Russia and a unreliable U.S. may leave the continent vulnerable. Merz's conservatives, who won the election, said at a press conference: "It sends a clear signal to our partners.. and also to the enemy of our freedom. We can defend ourselves." "Germany has returned." "Germany is contributing significantly to the defense of freedom and peace in Europe," added he. The news of the agreement lifted the yields on euro zone government bonds, the shares and the dollar as investors expected the borrowing plan to boost the European economy. The benchmark DAX index in Germany rose almost 2%. Both the mid-cap and small-cap indices also grew over 3%. The euro gained 0.5%, bringing its monthly gains to 5%. DEBT BRAKE IS 'BURIED Merz wants the funds secured before a new Parliament convenes, on March 25. Otherwise they run the risk of being blocked by a larger contingent of lawmakers from far right and far left. He said that the compromise reached with Greens included the allocation of 100 Billion Euros for the Climate and Economic Transformation Fund from the 500 Billion Euros earmarked for Infrastructure. The bill also contains a constitutional amendment that will exempt expenditures on defence, civil protection and disaster relief, intelligence services and information security from borrowing limits, referred to as the 'debt break', if they are greater than 1% of GDP. Reforms are aimed at rolling back debt rules that were imposed in 2008 after the global financial crisis, but have been criticised since then as being outdated and placing Germany in a fiscal straitjacket. Carsten Brzeski said, "With today's plans, the debt brake may not be dead, but more like buried alive," ING global head of macro. The only fiscal limit for the German government is the Stability and Growth Pact (EU). We know from experience that these rules are as flexible as butter when needed. (Reporting and writing by Andreas Rinke; reporting by Markus Wacket; writing by Sarah Marsh; editing by Toby Chopra).
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The embattled Congo President considers meeting with the M23 rebels
Felix Tshisekedi, the president of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), has been denying dialogue to M23 rebels backed by Rwanda that are ravaging eastern parts of his nation. But a series of defeats as well as waning support in regional circles have made him reconsider. Angola, a neighboring country, surprised many this week when it announced that Congo and M23 will sit down for direct negotiations in its capital city on 18 March. This is at a moment when the rebels continue to seize territory rich with minerals like coltan and tantalum. Tshisekedi’s government has not publicly committed to sending a delegation, but this week three sources in the government said he was seriously considering it. Diplomats and analysts say that regional powers seem to agree on the need for dialogue, given the weak resistance of the Congolese army and its allies against the advance of the rebels. One senior diplomat stated: "I've never spoken to an African country who said Kinshasa should not talk to M23." Everyone says, "How can you stop fighting if you do not engage them?" A source told us on Friday that the government's participation in Luanda was certain, but it was too early to determine who would be representing Kinshasa. Some sources stated that the debate is still going on and a decision will not be likely made until the next week. M23, on its part, demanded that Tshisekedi give a clear commitment to engaging in dialogue. Both sides expressed concerns about the framework, and the way in which the Angola-hosted discussions would conform to regional decisions aimed at resolving the conflict. On Monday, the foreign and defence ministers of Southern and East Africa will meet in Harare to discuss efforts to end hostilities and promote political dialogue. 'FAILED' MILITARY APPROACH According to U.N. expert, M23 has thousands of Rwandan soldiers backing them. Their superior weapons and equipment have allowed them to take control of east Congo's largest cities as well as a number of smaller towns since late January. Rwanda denies that it provided arms and troops for M23 and claims its forces were acting in self-defense against the Congolese Army and militias hostile towards Kigali. It is unlikely that sitting down with M23 in Kinshasa would be popular, especially given Tshisekedi’s repeated promises to never do so. Bob Kabamba, a Congolese analyst at the University of Liege (Belgium), said that it would be an admission that Tshisekedi’s pursuit of a "military solution" has "failed". He said that "Kinshasa is stuck in its position, believing the rebel alliance must not cross a threshold of critical importance." Angola, Congo's neighbor, may have also made the same calculation. They were wary of getting sucked into a regional conflict of greater scale that would be similar to those which killed millions of people in 1990s and 2000s. "Angola clearly decided it was necessary to intervene in order to prevent the M23's advance towards the west of DRC," said Stephanie Wolters. She is a Congo analyst at South Africa's Institute for Security Studies. This week, the lack of confidence in Tshisekedi to change the military tide was seen in the approval by Southern African leaders of the "phased" withdrawal of a regional mission known as SAMIDRC which had the mandate to combat rebels. Wolters stated that although the deployment was not strong enough to make a difference in the fight against M23 but its presence was a sign of regional support towards Congo. Its departure was therefore deemed 'a significant blow'. (Additional reporting by Giulia Paraavicini; Writing and editing by Robbie Corey Boulet)
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Ukrainian authorities claim that an anti-Russian activist was killed in Odesa.
Unknown gunmen killed a prominent antirussian activist on Friday in Odesa, a Ukrainian port city. The 31-year old victim was not named, but Ukrainian media reported that it was Demian Hanul. Hanul was a blogger and former member of Right Sector who was a radical extremist group. He was also a participant in the Maidan Revolution against Ukraine's pro-Russian President back in 2014. The national police announced on Telegram that the incident was a murder premeditated and committed with an order. A video clip was also posted on a local Telegram channel, claiming to show the shooting. The video clip showed a burly, muscular man holding the gun to a man's head who was lying on the pavement. He fired, then walked away. The authenticity of the clip could not be verified. Ukraine's Interior Minister said that he received "specific clues", which would help him track down the suspect. He also stated that the chief of the national police is heading to Odesa, to lead the investigation. The Russian state media had previously branded Hanul as "a neo Nazi responsible for the arson attacks on the Trade Union House Odessa", a referance to the deadly fighting in May 2014 between pro-Russian activist and supporters of Ukrainian unification. In April 2024, a Moscow court in absentia charged Hanul with several crimes. These included damaging Soviet-era monuments of war for which he could have faced up 20 years in prison. In July, several media outlets reported that Hanul requested police protection in Ukraine after receiving threats. (Reporting and Editing by Gareth Jones. Yuliia Dyesa)
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Transport emissions of Inditex, Zara's owner, will increase in 2024
Inditex, Zara's owner, increased its emissions from transport by 10% between 2024 and 2024. This is because Zara used more flights in order to move clothing from its production centres in Asia to the logistics hub in Spain to get it into stores. This increase is a result of increased air freight usage. Attacks on container ships at the Red Sea forced vessels to divert from the Suez Canal to a longer route around Africa in order to transport goods from Asia. As a result, shipping emissions have increased. Inditex's annual report, published on Friday by Inditex, stated that emissions from upstream transport and distribution were 2,614,230 tons of CO2eq in its 2024 financial period ending January 31. This is an increase of 10% from the 2,378,464 tones in 2023. Inditex didn't give any reason in the report for the rise. The company didn't immediately respond to a comment request. In November, it was reported that Inditex had increased its use air freight to transport products from its factories in India and Bangladesh - two important manufacturing hubs - to its Zaragoza logistic hub in Spain in order to avoid shipping delays which could hinder its ability to quickly get trendy clothes into the stores. Inditex previously stated that it was working to reduce transportation emissions by using measures such as alternative fuels, optimising routes and container occupancy rates. The retailer owns Bershka and Massimo Dutti brands. It reported on Wednesday a 10.5% increase in 2024 sales, currency adjusted, of 38.6 billion euro ($42.06billion). The company's greenhouse gas emissions in 2024 were the same as in 2023. This was due to a decrease in emissions related to its product sourcing category, which is its largest emissions category. Inditex said that the reduction in emissions from "purchased products and services" was 6%. They went from 7,102.152 tonnes to 6,696,995 tons of CO2 equivalent. This is due to Inditex buying more textiles with a low environmental impact. Inditex reported that 33% of the fibres and raw material used by Inditex in 2024 will come from post-consumer waste, up from just 18% in 2013. The retailer has not made any progress in reducing indirect emissions, including the category of purchased goods and services. Inditex aims to reduce its "scope 3", or supply-chain emissions, by 51% in 2030, and by 90% by 2040 compared with 2018 levels. Inditex's scope three emissions in 2024 will be 13,427.762 tonnes CO2 equivalent. This is a small increase from the level of 2013,421,935, as reported by the annual report. The report published milestones that showed by 2030, it would need to reduce that number to 4,916,311 tons, and by 2040, to 1,003,329 tones to meet the targets approved by the Science Based Targets Initiative. This global nonprofit assesses and reviews companies' climate goals.
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What Germany's planned expenditure spree might mean for the economy
German chancellor-in-waiting Friedrich Merz reached an agreement with the Greens on Friday on a massive increase in state borrowing, just days before a parliamentary vote on the issue, a source close to the negotiations said. The parties aspiring to form the next government have agreed to create a special infrastructure fund of 500 billion euros ($545 billion), and to remove the debt restrictions on defence investments. What the future plans for Europe's biggest economy could mean in terms of growth and debt: Could the spending boost Germany's ailing economy? According to economists yes, according to the economists The German DIW Economic Institute said that the planned infrastructure fund could alone increase economic output by more than two percentage point per year in the next ten years. DIW stated that a growth rate of 2,1% in 2026 is now expected instead of the previous 1.1%. A second institute, IfW, also revised its growth estimate for Germany in 2026, predicting a 1.5% expansion on the backs of expected increases in public expenditure. The IMK, an economic institute that has not updated its forecasts yet, predicts the German economy to grow by only 0.1% this year after two years of contractions in 2023-2024. However, the institute said new proposals might make a significant difference. Sebastian Dullien, IMK’s director of economics, said: "If the financial package was implemented quickly, a noticeable acceleration in growth could be expected for the second half the year. Growth in the entire year may also move away from stagnation." WHICH SECTORS ARE SET TO PROFIT MOST? Construction can benefit from the fund set up to upgrade Germany's crumbling infrastructure. The shares of Heidelberg Materials increased by 4% Friday. Bilfinger shares rose 4.8%, while Hochtief's were up 5%. Also, the defence industry stands to benefit. The proposed coalition plans would amend the constitution to remove the strict limit on borrowing in Germany, known as the "debt brake", and allow for higher defence spending plans. The news of this agreement has led to gains of between 5% and 7% for Rheinmetall, Hensoldt, Thyssenkrupp, and Renk, all German defence companies. How much more debt will Germany take on? Lots. Germany's debt was 64% of its gross domestic product last year. This is lower than other industrialized countries like the United States or France. Joerg Kraemer, chief economist at Commerzbank, expects this level to rise by 10 percentage points in the next few years due to the special fund created for infrastructure. If defence spending was increased to 3.5% of GDP, the debt ratio would increase by 2.5 points per year. Kraemer stated that the government debt ratio in 10 years could reach 90%. However, this is also dependent on inflation, and therefore, not easy to predict. Friedrich Heinemann, a ZEW economist, said: "This would mean Germany would soon join the ranks the EU's most indebted countries." He predicted that Germany's debt could reach 100% in 2034. WHAT WOULD THIS DO TO GERMANY'S TRIPLE A CREDIT RATING Not necessarily. Eiko Sievert, a Scope analyst, said that the spending plans may increase Germany's level of debt to 72% of its gross domestic product in 2029. This is below the previous record of 80%, which was set after the global financial crash of 2010, when Germany maintained its AAA rating. Sievert stated that the future of this possibility depends on the implementation and success of the necessary reforms in politics to boost competitiveness and economic development. CAN GERMANY FIND SUFFICIENT LENDERS? Germany is a popular borrower because of its top credit rating. To make German government bonds more attractive to investors, however, it would be necessary to increase interest rates. Kraemer, Commerzbank's Kraemer, says that investors are likely to demand a higher risk premium for German government bonds. Investors digested the news about the agreement regarding spending plans. This indicates that Germany's interest payments will likely increase. Could Germany's Spending Spree Influence ECB Policy? It is possible that pumping hundreds and billions of Euros into the economy will lead to inflation. The ECB must take into consideration that inflationary pressures will increase again due to the planned expansionary fiscal policies in Germany, said Cyrus de la Rubia. Chief economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank. Reporting by Rene Wagner and Maria Martinez, Writing by Rachel More, Editing by Gareth Jones, Christina Fincher
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Gold vaults $3,000 rush to safety from market, political worries
Gold prices have risen steadily, and for the first-time in history, above the psychologically important $3,000 mark per ounce. This is due to geopolitical uncertainty and economic instability that has sent investors into this safe-haven investment. Gold spot reached a new record of $3,004.86 an ounce, its 13th highest level in 2025. Prices have already risen 14% in this year after soaring 27% in 2024. There are many factors that drive demand, including central bank purchases. Standard Chartered analyst Suki cooper said that despite geopolitical uncertainties and the ongoing changes in tariffs, gold demand remains high. Since Donald Trump took office, his protectionist policies have shaken global markets. His tariffs have also triggered swift retaliation by China and Canada. John Ciampaglia is the CEO of Sprott Asset Management. He said that with equity markets falling and political risks unpredictable, Western investors are returning to gold. This could push it up to higher levels. We consider gold to be an "insurance policy" and a source of liquidity during difficult market conditions. Gold is a safe haven for investors as trade tensions and tariffs cause inflation fears. Gold stocks are also increasing in COMEX approved warehouses As traders scrambled to cover their positions in the face of tariff uncertainty, gold production hit a new record high. In recent weeks, however, inflows of gold have decreased. FEDERAL RELEASE The Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates by three quarter points this year. This was up from just two days ago. Since September, the Fed has cut rates by 100 basis point, pausing only in January. The markets expect that cuts will resume in June. This is keeping the dollar in pressure. It's a dramatic change from the time when Trump’s protectionist policies boosted the currency. Standard Chartered analyst Suki cooper said, "The inflation data helps to give the market confidence in the easing cycle given concerns about inflation and growth." ETF DEMAND According to World Gold Council data from February, the demand for gold among investors is on the rise. Physically-backed gold ETFs have seen their biggest weekly inflows since March 2022. On February 25, SPDR Gold Trust, the world's biggest gold-backed ETF saw its holdings reach 907.82 tons. This is the highest level since August 2023. Dina Ting is the Head of Global Index Portfolio Management for Franklin Templeton. She said that there will be an increase in flows to safe-haven investments like gold as investors shift away from equity growth stock amid rising uncertainty and future concerns. She said that, while investing strategies can vary, a gold allocation of 5% to 10% can provide effective diversification. CENTRAL BANK DENDER The central bank demand is a major factor in gold's price rise. Analysts believe that strong demand in 2025 will push gold prices to new heights, as countries continue to stockpile the metal during economic uncertainty. Ting stated that central banks could increase their gold purchases in the face of market uncertainty, not only to hedge against the U.S. Dollar but also to anchor their currencies with gold. In February, China's gold reserves were up for four consecutive months. In 2024, after an 18-month buying spree the central bank took a six-month break before returning to purchases in November. Macquarie stated in a report that in the absence of improvement in the U.S. deficit budget, gold may challenge the high of $3,500. Goldman Sachs has raised its 2025 year-end gold target to $3100. Goldman Sachs raised its year-end 2025 gold target to $3,100.
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Executives say AI will lead to cheaper and faster oil production.
Executives at the CERAWeek Conference in Houston explained that artificial intelligence has accelerated oil and gas drilling, and prompted companies to reconsider areas they previously deemed too expensive or difficult to develop. AI was a major topic in several sessions of the largest energy conference. Oil producers are looking for ways to stay profitable amid a plummeting price of oil and concerns that U.S. president Donald Trump's tariffs may slow down global energy demand. Ann Davies, BP’s senior vice-president of wells, revealed that the UK oil giant BP uses AI to predict problems and steer drill bits before they occur. She said, "We can drill more wells each year and we have better capital allocation." BP announced that it would increase its annual spending on oil production and gas as part of a major strategic shift to improve investor trust. Trey Lowe, chief technology officer at Devon Energy in the United States, told an interview that AI had helped Devon Energy drill into areas previously unreachable. He said that the company could, for example, gather information on a fault within a formation and then drill the opposite side to avoid the fault. Chevron uses AI-powered drones to fly over its shale oil and gas operations in Texas, Colorado and Wyoming. The drones are used to monitor and detect potential problems such as emissions leaks remotely and alert workers on the ground. Russell Robinson, deputy program manager for facilities and operations, Chevron, told an interviewer on the sidelines at the conference that in three months, the company had reduced the time it took to shut down production due to repairs or maintenance. He said drones allowed workers to spend less time performing routine inspections in the shale fields. "We have continued to run more assets for longer periods of time. This is just producing more gas or oil," he added, adding that Chevron is currently evaluating if it should expand the use of drones in monitoring its refineries. Lowe, Devon Energy's CEO, said that machine learning models monitor each of the oil rigs in the U.S. The company has also seen a 25% increase in the life expectancy of its gas and oil wells. AI also speeds up offshore drilling. BP uses AI to evaluate vast amounts of data in the Gulf of Mexico, compared to the six to twelve months it took before. A spokesperson explained that this helps geoscientists to determine where to drill wells and predict problems. The oil and gas sector has been using AI for many years. However, recent advancements like large-language modeling are revolutionizing the industry. Chicheng Xu is the founder of OpenPetro AI a company that builds AI tools for energy companies and a former petrophysicist with Aramco. He said that it would take humans a long time to create three-dimensional visualisations of deep-sea features. AI can search through data to find features that you are interested in and then visualize them for you. "That's the difference," Xu said. Gaining a competitive edge means cutting time and costs. Lowe, from Devon, said that companies who don't use AI will be left behind. (Arathy S. Somasekhar contributed additional reporting from Houston, and Simon Webb & David Gregorio edited the story).
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Terna, an Italian company, will invest 23 billion Euros in its network over a period of 10 years.
Terna, the Italian state-controlled electricity grid operator, announced on Friday that it will invest over 25 billion Euros (23 billion euros) in network upgrades within the next 10 year. The group announced that it would increase the amount of funds raised for the development of the electric network in the country for 2025-2034 by 10% per year. In a press release, Chief Executive Giuseppina di Foggia stated that "Investing in planning and modernising the electricity grids is essential in order to meet the increasing demand for energy as well as the integration of renewable resources." She said that the goal of the group was to "ensure the country has an efficient, reliable and sustainable system". Terna predicted that by the end of this year, the energy exchange capacity between markets will reach approximately 39 GW. This is up from the current 16GW. Interventions would also resolve local congestion while ensuring the stability and security grid. The group stated that the sub-high-voltage direct current (HVDC), Tyrrhenian Link is expected to be finished by 2028. It will connect the island of Sicily with Sardinia, and the southern region Campania. It is expected that the Adriatic Link will be operational in 2029. This 250-kilometer link between Abruzzo, Marche and the region of Abruzzo. Terna stated that its investments will help support the Italian Government's goal to increase installed solar and wind power by 65 GW in 2030 and by 94 GW in 2035. The plan also stated that the interventions it envisages would result in a reduction of up to 2,100 kilotons/year of CO2 emissions by 2040, and 2,000 kilotons/year by 2030. $1 = 0.9198 Euros (Reporting and editing by David Evans, Alvise Armellini)
Oil prices rise on uncertain path to Ukraine ceasefire
The oil prices recovered on Friday, after losing more than 1% in the previous session. This was partly due to the decreasing prospects for a rapid end to the Ukraine conflict that could bring more Russian energy to Western markets. Brent crude futures rose 54 cents or 0.77% to $70.42 per barrel at 1055 GMT after falling 1.5% in the previous session. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude was $67.13 per barrel, up 58c or 0.87% after closing 1.7% lower on Thursday.
Brent and WTI prices are expected to be more or less the same as last Friday's settlement, which saw Brent settle at $70.36 while WTI settled at $67.04.
Brent oil has been hovering around $70 for the last two weeks. Commerzbank analysts wrote in a note that whether it will stay at this level for the next week depends on political news. Russian President Vladimir Putin stated on Thursday that Moscow supports a U.S. proposed ceasefire in Ukraine, in principle. However, he asked for clarifications and conditions which appeared to prevent a rapid end to the fighting.
Tony Sycamore, IG's market analyst, said that "Russian support for a 30-day proposal of ceasefire with Ukraine has decreased confidence in a short-term ceasefire." Trump administration announced on Thursday the expiration of a license allowing financial transactions with Russian institutions to conduct energy transactions. This will increase pressure on Putin to reach a peace deal over Ukraine. Sources say that Chinese state-owned firms also limit Russian oil imports due to sanctions risk.
China and Russia stood with Iran on Friday after the United States demanded that nuclear talks be held with Tehran. Senior Chinese and Russian diplomats said dialogue should only continue based upon "mutual respect", and all sanctions should be lifted.
In a client note, ANZ analysts stated that geopolitical tensions could still disrupt supply. The International Energy Agency warned Thursday that the global oil supply may exceed demand this year by 600,000 barrels a day due to the growth in the United States, and a weaker global demand than expected.
The IEA's estimates of demand growth for the fourth quarter of 2024, and the first three months of 2019, were reduced due to the unstable macroeconomic conditions caused primarily by the escalating tensions in trade between the U.S.
Analysts at Commerzbank said that "high risks on the supply side and increased production from OPEC+" argue against a sustained rise in oil prices.
(source: Reuters)