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Silver extends its rally above $60; gold dips ahead Fed decision
The gold price fell on Wednesday, as investors awaited a rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve and clues about future policy. Silver prices meanwhile?extended? their rally to new heights. At 1113 GMT, spot gold had fallen 0.4% to $4193.60 an ounce. U.S. Gold Futures for February Delivery were down 0.3% at $4,221.60 an ounce. Spot silver rose 0.7% to $61.11/oz, after reaching an all-time record of $61.61 in the previous session. This was due to rising industrial demand, falling inventories and its designation by?the United States as a critical metal. The white metal is up 112% this year. Silver broke through the $60 an ounce mark, attracting more short-term traders and trend followers to the market. Carsten Menke, Julius Baer's analyst, said that this also reflects a narrative of a physical tightness on the silver market. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) policy meeting ends later. A rate cut is expected to be announced by 1900 GMT, and Jerome Powell will speak at 1930 GMT. Markets assign an 88% chance of a 25 basis-point reduction. Nitesh Sha, commodities analyst at WisdomTree said that gold was currently trading in a range until the FOMC announced its decision. "What will move gold? Not necessarily the cut itself, but rather the guidance for future," he added. Benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury Yields are at their highest level in more than three month. The demand for gold, as measured by the holdings of physical-backed products, was lower than for silver in the last few weeks. Menke said that they see this as being the primary factor preventing gold from gaining traction. Carolane de Palmas, an analyst at ActivTrades, said that "gold's performance is one of the primary drivers of silver price volatility -- any correction in gold can lead to increased volatility in silver." Kevin Hassett is the White House's economic adviser and the leading candidate to succeed Powell as Fed Chair. He said on Tuesday that "there was plenty of room" for further interest rate cuts, but rising inflation might change this calculation. Gold and other non-yielding investments are favored by lower rates. RBC Capital Markets increased its long-term forecasts for gold prices to an average $4,600 per 1 ounce by 2026, and $5,100 in 2027. They cited geopolitical risk, a softer monetary policies, and persistent deficits. Palladium dropped 0.7%, to $1,495.88, while platinum fell 1.7%, to $1662.33. Reporting by Pablo Sinha from Bengaluru. Alexandra Hudson, Mark Potter and Alexandra Hudson edited the article.
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Marubeni expects Japan aluminum premiums to be between $85 and $203 by 2026
Marubeni Corp, a trading house, said that Japanese buyers will pay premiums between $85 and $203 per metric ton of aluminium in 2026 as overseas premiums are higher. This is because the flow to Asia has been reduced due to higher premiums, which have also slowed down. Japan is a major aluminum importer in Asia. The amount it pays for primary metal shipments above the London Metal Exchange Cash Price each quarter sets the benchmark for Asia. Japanese premiums have been lowered to $86 per tonne due to a combination of sluggish demand, ample supply and low prices. This quarter, the price was $228 compared to $190-$203 in January-March. In negotiations that began earlier this month for shipments in January-March, global suppliers have offered premiums between $190 and $203 per ton above the benchmark price. This is up 121%-136% compared to this quarter. Marubeni is one of Japan’s largest aluminum traders. They forecast Japan premiums of $140-$203 per tonne in January-March. $125-$200 from April-June. And a range between $85-$175 in the remainder of 2026. IMPACT OF US TARIFFS ON PREMIUMS "Premiums are rising in Europe and America amid concerns about supply and tariffs. This is raising fears that flows into Asia will be reduced, and has pushed up Japanese spot premiums over the past few weeks," Eisuke Akasaka said, General Manager of Marubeni's Light Metals Section. He noted that spot?premiums had risen to almost $140. Akasaka noted that an outage in a smelter located in Iceland and the expectation of the potential mothballing South32's Mozambique aluminum smelter, as well as front-loading before a new Carbon?Border Adaptation Mechanism under the EU have all contributed to the increase of European premiums. U.S. premiums are up because of high import tariffs. Akasaka said he expects European premiums will ease in the second halves of 2026, as the underlying demand is weak. This would lead to a small decline in Japanese premiums during the same period. (Reporting and editing by Barbara Lewis; Yuka Obayashi)
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GE Vernova shares rise after bullish 2026 revenue outlook, buyback boost
GE Vernova shares rose by more than 8% on Wednesday in premarket trading after the company forecasted higher revenue for '2026, and a $4 Billion increase 'in its share buyback program. This was due to rising demand for GE Vernova power equipment used in data centers. GE Vernova is positioned to expand in the United States for a longer period of time, thanks to its continued growth across its gas turbine and grid businesses. Vernova, which was spun-off from General Electric in 2024, has seen a?rise of more than 370%. The stock jumped?8.2% before the bell Wednesday to $676.46. GE Vernova increased its share repurchase authority to $10 billion, up from $6 billion. It also doubled the quarterly dividend per share to 50 cents. Analysts at Jefferies said that the forecast was "well over on margins, EBITDA, and FCF," pointing out the "uniquely positive" outlook of the company's free cash flow for 2026 as well as the positive electrification margins above 20%. The company anticipates a 16% to 18% growth in organic revenue in 'its power segment, and a 20% increase in electrification in 2026. It?projected a free cash flow between $4.5 and $5.0 billion in the next year. This is higher than the $3.5 to 4 billion it expected to reach by 2025.
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The price of 2026 diesel is higher at major Asian refineries
According to several trade sources, major Asian refineries have signed term agreements for diesel exports by 2026, at a higher premium than the benchmark Singapore prices this year. This is supported by the firmer prices of November. The spot premiums for refiners’?sales? of 10ppm diesel in December were at their highest level in two years as the?prompt?supplies tightened because refinery outages exceeded expectations and year-end demand by regional importers increased, traders reported. The higher premiums on 2026 supply indicates that traders are still bullish about the prospects for motor and industrial fuel in the coming year. Three sources familiar with this matter claim that the Taiwanese refiner Formosa Petrochemical Corp. (FPCC), sold two cargoes of 750,000 barrels per month at 10ppm sulphur to a Western trading house for a premium of 60-70c a barrel. They added that two more?buyers can load a 750,000-barrel shipment every quarter for a premium of up to 80 cents a barrel. The contract prices for this year were higher by 20-40 cents a barrel. The 'premiums' for diesel and jet-fuel are largely up on an annual basis due to'stronger forecasts of supply-demand next year', said FPCC spokesperson KY Lin. However, he declined comment on the deal. He added, "We expect global supply-demand fundamentals to be better than this year for most oil products such as diesel and jet fuel due to some refinery closures and shutdowns since the second half of this year." Some refineries in Asia have experienced longer than expected outages. Others on the West Coast of the U.S. West Coast refineries have permanently closed due to high cost. SK Energy (a unit of SK Innovation) and GS Caltex, two South Korean oil companies, have been selling?several cargoes of 10ppm sulphur-free diesel per month? to a few Western trading houses as well as regional end users at a premium of 30 cents a barrel?, compared to around 20 cents a barrel this year? SK Energy and GS Caltex didn't immediately respond to our requests for comment. Two sources confirmed that Japan-origin barriques were also being discussed, with premiums of 30-50 cents per barrique. However, further details couldn't be confirmed. Traders said that FPCC?and GS Caltex jet fuel and kerosene were both sold at a premium of 80 cents up to $1 per barrel compared to FOB Singapore prices. Several buyers took advantage of this opportunity to lock in supplies, expecting a stronger heating demand through the first quarter next year. Reporting by Trixie YAP. Joyce Lee contributed additional reporting. Mark Potter (Editor)
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Copper prices rise on the prospect of support for Chinese real estate sector
On Wednesday, copper prices rose, returning to record levels on the back of hopes for more stimulus, particularly in China's battered real estate sector. Benchmark three-month Copper on the London Metal Exchange rose?1.2%?to $11,624 per metric ton at 1005 GMT, after falling by 1.3% Tuesday. It had reached a record high of $11,771 one day earlier. The shares of China's real estate sector soared on Wednesday, amid unsubstantiated market rumours about a government mortgage subsidy package worth 400 billion yuan (56.63 billion dollars). Property is one of the largest consumers of industrial metals, including copper. Dan Smith, managing Director?at Commodity Market Analytics, said: "A lot of?data from China recently was pretty abysmal in construction. It wouldn't?surprise me at all if there will be more stimulus for that part of economy to continue to grow." Analysts said that a stimulus for the Chinese economy as a whole was needed. Data on Wednesday revealed?that domestic demand is still weak and deflationary pressures persist. LME copper prices have risen 32% in this year, on fears of mine disruptions leading to deficits. Also, the flow of metals into the U.S. has tightened the supply of the rest of world. "I think that the risk for now is still on the upside. Smith stated that he had a "hunch" we would reach $12,000 by the end of the calendar year. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's most traded copper contract closed the daytime trade down 0.2%, at 91.850 yuan per ton. The U.S. Federal Reserve, expected to cut rates on Wednesday afternoon, may also dampen expectations for further rate cuts. Analysts at Chinese broker Jinrui stated that investors have'scaled back their positions due to the uncertainty of future rate cuts. The expected supply pressure outside of the U.S. keeps prices high and volatile. Other metals saw a 0.3% rise in LME aluminium to $2,863.50 per ton. Lead rose by 0.2% at $1,983, Nickel increased 0.2% at $14,760. Tin gained 1.4% at $40,400, while zinc fell 0.1% to 3,086.50.
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A Chinese rare earth manufacturer receives a streamlined license for magnet exports
Ningbo Jintian Copper, a Chinese rare earth producer, announced on Wednesday that it had obtained streamlined export?licences. After a meeting in late October between Donald Trump, the U.S. counterpart of President Xi Jinping, and Xi's Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping, the?new general licences? are intended to allow individual customers more exports with year-long permits. On an investor interactive platform, Ningbo Jintian Copper said that its rare earth magnets are used in electric cars, wind turbines and robots as well as consumer electronics, medical equipment, and consumer electronic products. Last week, it was reported that three Chinese rare-earth magnet manufacturers including JL Mag Rare Earth Ningbo Yunsheng High-Tech and Beijing Zhongke San Huan High-Tech secured the licenses which would allow them to speed up exports to certain customers. Beijing added several rare earth elements and magnets in early April to its export control list, requiring dual-use licenses for export. China's exports of rare-earth magnets plummeted in April and may, forcing automakers to shut down parts of their production. The dual-use license regime will continue to exist. Reporting by Beijing Newsroom. (Editing by Jan Harvey, Mark Potter and Jan Harvey)
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Intel wins reduced fine after losing its challenge to EU antitrust ruling
Intel, the U.S. chipmaker, lost its appeal against a 376 million euro ($438 millions) EU antitrust penalty imposed two years earlier for 'thwarting competitors.' But it gained some comfort as Europe’s second highest court reduced the fine by a third. The European Commission (which is the EU's competition enforcer) handed out the fine in 2023, after the court threw out an earlier penalty of 1.06 billion euro imposed by the tribunal in 2009 for blocking Advanced Micro Devices. The 376 million Euro fine was a result of payments Intel made to HP, Acer and Lenovo between November 2002 and December 2006 to stop or delay competing?products. These payments are often referred to as "naked restrictions" and are frowned upon by regulators. The Luxembourg-based tribunal stated that "the General Court upholds Commission 2023's decision against Intel, but reduces fine by about?140million euros." The judges said that a fine of 237 million euros is more appropriate in light of the severity and duration of the violation at issue. The company cited the limited number of computers that were affected by Intel?s restrictions and the 12-month interval between?some of these anti-competitive activities. On legal issues, the Commission and Intel may appeal to the European Court of Justice (the highest court in Europe), which is Europe's highest. T-1129/23 Intel Corporation V Commission.
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Silver extends rally beyond $60; gold steady ahead of Fed rate-cut decision
Investors awaited comments from Jerome Powell, the chair of the Federal Reserve, on future policy decisions, as gold prices remained unchanged. Silver extended its historic rally over $60 an ounce. As of 0844 GMT, spot gold dropped 0.2% to $4199.92 an ounce. U.S. Gold Futures for February Delivery fell 0.2% to $4.228.10 an ounce. Spot silver rose 1.2% to $61.37/oz after hitting an all-time record of $61.61 earlier. Silver broke above the $60 an ounce mark, luring in more short-term traders and trend followers. Carsten Menke, Julius Baer's analyst, said that this also reflects a narrative of "physical tightness" in the silver markets. White metal prices have risen 113% in the past year. This is due to a combination of factors, including a decline in inventories and the United States' designation of it as a "critical" mineral. Today, the two-day Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) policy meeting ends. A rate-cutting decision is expected at 1900 GMT. Powell will then make his remarks at 1930 GMT. The markets assign an 88% chance of a 25 basis-point cut. In the last few weeks, investors' demand for gold measured by holdings in physically-backed products was not as high as silver. Menke said that this is the primary factor holding gold back. Holdings of the largest gold-backed ?exchange-traded-fund (ETF), New York's SPDR Gold Trust, fell 0.1% on Tuesday, while New York's iShares ?Silver Trust, gained 0.53%. Kevin Hassett is the White House's economic advisor and a frontrunner for replacing Powell as Fed Chair. He said on Tuesday that "there was plenty of room" to lower interest rates further. However, rising inflation may change this calculation. Gold is a non-yielding asset that tends to be favoured by lower interest rates. RBC Capital Markets has raised its long-term forecasts for gold prices to an average $4,600 per 1 ounce by 2026, and $5,100 in 2027. They cited geopolitical risk, a softer monetary policies, and persistent deficits. Palladium dropped 0.3%, to 1,501.71, and platinum fell 1.2%, to $1670.70. (Reporting and editing by Alexandra Hudson in Bengaluru, with reporting by Pablo Sinha from Bengaluru)
Musk's layoffs reduce workforce required to realize Trump's energy dominance plan
According to state officials and representatives of agencies, the Trump administration's mass firings have caused a slowdown in government approvals for new energy projects, which could be a setback for President Donald Trump's "drill baby, drill" agenda. This is one of the unintended effects of Elon Musk's Department of Government Efficiency's mass firings, which were intended to cut wasteful spending. However, current and former officials claim that this runs counter to Trump’s pledge to increase production of oil and gas as well as power generation and electrical transmission. This strategy was partly outlined in a series executive orders signed by President Trump to open up vast new areas for drilling off the coast of Alaska.
Since mid-February, cuts have affected employees in agencies that are crucial to the process of issuing permits for new federal or tribal energy production. These include the Bureau of Land Management (BLM), the Bureau of Indian Affairs (BIA), and the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management.
Harrison Fields, spokesperson for the White House, said that "streamlining organization charts to improve government efficiency will not affect President Obama's Drill Baby Drill initiative, and hyperventilating over cutting fraud, waste and abuse is irresponsible." Reporting showed that permitting has slowed down in the nation's most productive oil and gas producing states like New Mexico and Alaska as well as Native American tribes who rely on fossil-fuel extraction to fund public services such as schools. Federal lands and waters are responsible for almost a quarter (25%) of the total U.S. output of oil and provide public revenue through production royalties. However, it's not clear to what extent the job cuts have affected new production. According to the Energy Information Administration, the U.S. will produce an average of 13,23 million barrels a day (bpd).
"I don’t understand these wide cuts," said Mike Celata who was BOEM's Gulf of Mexico regional director for seven years. This included during Trump's initial term. "You're essentially talking about an organization that has brought billions in revenue to the Treasury."
Celata said that the process of rigorous environmental review is crucial to protect government oil and natural gas auctions, and drilling programs against litigation which can derail plans by fuel producers. In recent years, environmental groups' lawsuits have caused many energy projects to be delayed or cancelled.
He said, "You have to follow this process." Loss of people is a serious problem.
The 'proper staffing' of agencies is a must
Over 20,000 federal workers have been estimated to have lost jobs, with almost all being probationary employees who have worked in their current role for less than one year. Another 75,000 of the 2.3 millions federal civil servants have accepted a buyout. In the next few weeks, more cuts are expected. Over 2,000 employees are affected, including those in the Interior Department which oversees the Bureau of Land Management and Bureau of Indian Affairs. According to the National Treasury Employees Union, who represents BLM employees, at least 250 employees of the Bureau of Land Management have lost their job. The Bureau of Land Management oversees energy production and mineral production over 245 million acres.
A spokesperson for the Interior Department said that they did not expect any negative impacts. By streamlining our operations, we strengthen our ability to serve public and make government more efficient and accountable.
The American Exploration & Production Council, a trade group that represents independent U.S. producers of energy, declined to comment about the job cuts. However they said it is crucial that permits offices are adequately staffed.
Wendy Kirchoff is AXPC's senior vice president for policy. She said that maintaining key personnel was essential to unleashing American energy dominance.
This week, the CERAWeek conference on energy in Houston echoed the need for staffing to ensure a smooth permitting process.
Matt Schatzman is the CEO of NextDecade LNG, whose projects are dependent on approvals by the Department of Energy, and the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission. He said he supported cutting wasteful federal expenditures, but warned against indiscriminate cuts to job positions in the permitting agencies.
We need to ensure that these agencies have the right staffing. "I cannot stress this enough," he said.
"WE CAN'T ALLOW PROJECTS" The United States was already dealing with an increasing backlog of drilling permits. According to a budget document from the Interior Department published in March 2024, pending permits at BLM increased from 2,552 applications in 2017 to 5,500 in 2025. Both political parties have called for reforms in the permitting process because of the massive queues that exist for energy infrastructure projects such as transmission lines, critical minerals mining and transmission lines. The Biden administration hired more staff to help with the permitting backlog using money from the Inflation Reduction Act, a bipartisan infrastructure bill and the Inflation Reduction Act.
Laura Daniel-Davis was the former acting deputy Secretary of Interior under Biden. She said, "We really pushed to follow Congress' directions and staff up for energy-related permits."
Oil producing state officials say that the job cuts at DOGE are slowing down permitting. Alaskan Republican Senator Lisa Murkowski wrote in a recent Facebook post that "we can't achieve our potential for responsible mineral and energy development if we don't have the ability to permit projects." She added that 60% of Alaska was federal land.
Murkowski's spokesperson Joe Plesha said that the disruption of workers is affecting projects waiting for permits, but refused to provide specifics.
The American Federation of Government Employees (AFE), a union representing federal employees, reported that nearly 1,300 federal probationary employees may have been terminated in Alaska, including 300 at the Interior Department - the parent agency of BLM, BOEM, and BLM.
According to a letter from the state's Congressional delegation, the BLM offices in New Mexico, which manage drilling permits for the state portion of the Permian Basin – the primary driver of record U.S. production of oil and gas – have also been affected. More than a third of New Mexico's general fund comes from revenue generated by drilling on federal lands. New Mexico Dem. "Cutting the BLM workforce could put at risk its efforts in managing our public land, including their role to safely and responsibly manage oil and gas production", said New Mexico Dem. Senator Ben Ray Lujan. According to Lauren Leib of the National Treasury Employees Union, who represents New Mexico BLM workers, permitting and preparation for new leasing sales has already slowed.
After layoffs and lease sales, she said, the agency would struggle to hire staff to fulfill its mandate, which includes processing applications for drilling permits, carrying out lease sales, and ensuring environmental protection.
She said that in New Mexico, a large part of the economy is dependent on oil and natural gas production. A slowdown has a ripple affect on local economies.
Tribal lands also affected
The Osage Minerals Council which oversees mineral affairs of Oklahoma's oil producing Osage Tribe said DOGE's plans to close Bureau of Indian Affairs Osage Agency Offices and terminate their administrator would threaten to put its oil and natural gas permits to a halt. According to BIA data, Osage lands could hold between 1.5 and 13 billion barrels in crude oil reserves. Production is expected to be around 1,000 barrels a day by 2020.
The council stated in a recent statement that it would insist the Secretary of Interior explain to them how the closing of our Agency and displacing BIA staff will improve oil and natural gas permits. (Reporting and editing by Richard Valdmanis, Anna Driver and Georgina McCartney. Additional reporting by Valerie Volcovici.
(source: Reuters)