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Ghana's economy is expected to grow by 5.5% in the third quarter of 2025
The Ghanaian economy grew by 5.5% a year on an annual basis?in 2025's third quarter, according to the Statistics Agency. This was mainly due to?improvements in the agriculture and services sectors, it said. Alhassan Iddrisu, a government statistician, told reporters that growth was down from 7.0%, which had been revised, in the same time period of last year. The industrial sector, however, only grew by 0.8%. Iddrisu stated that fishing?and crop production boosted the growth of the agricultural sector to 8.6%. He added that the services sector, which includes finance, insurance and trade, as well as education, grew by 7.6%. Iddrisu stated that "Agriculture’s contribution to growth was outsized. It shows a sector which is recovering rapidly and adding weight to national output." The real GDP of non-oil countries grew 6.8%, compared with 7.8% one year earlier. The country that produces gold, oil, and cocoa is emerging from the most severe economic crisis it has experienced in decades. Its annual inflation rate fell for the 11th month in a row to 6.3% November is a month of celebrations. It is at its lowest level since 2021, when a rebasing was conducted. As a result of falling inflation in Ghana, the central bank has cut its interest rate this year by 1,000 basis points. They cited an improved economy outlook and expected further inflation declines. Reporting by Christian Akorlie, Emmanuel Bruce and Ayen Deng BIOR Writing by Peter Graff
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Ross Kerber: Maybe Trump and Republicans have stopped being mad about index funds.
By Ross Kerber Dec. 10 - Financial leaders and corporate leaders will soon learn if U.S. president Donald Trump is going to continue his Republican crusade aimed at giant index funds. Washington trade groups expected last month that the White House would issue an executive directive to reshape corporate governance by imposing new limitations on proxy advisers, and big passive index funds. Republicans claim that the "Big Three", passive firms, including?BlackRock?,?Vanguard? and State Street? "use shareholder voting to advance a political agenda" according to the 2022 staff report of the Senate Banking Committee?s Republican staff. Since 2022, the votes of fund companies have changed to be more in favor of management. The question is now whether or not the Republican complaints about index funds are still valid. A White House official who spoke on condition of anonymity on Tuesday said that, "Until the WH officially announces any potential executive orders, all discussion is purely speculative." Corporate governance experts are left to interpret the situation in tea leaves. Jessica Wirth Strine is a managing director at shareholder advisory firm Jasper Street. She said that despite the rumors most people do not believe anything'really dramatic' will happen with an EO in terms of index fund voting. Others agree that reducing index funds' influence would empower traditional, environmental and social shareholder activists. She said: "We all know that it would be a strange thing to do to deprive the largest and most corporate-friendly shareholders of their governance rights." The Big Three are the new kingmakers. By offering low fees and attracting a combined total of $31 trillion in assets under management, they have become kingmakers during annual shareholder meetings. The Big Three are the largest investors in most S&P 500 firms and have a significant influence on questions such as which directors should be elected or how a firm reports its 'carbon emissions. Around 2020, big funds will support more shareholder resolutions that are socially and environmentally focused. This is a response to the Black Lives Matter Movement and efforts to reduce climate change. The Republican Senators, led by Dan Sullivan from Alaska, who claimed that the 'Big Three' were reducing energy investments, including those in indigenous communities, introduced the INDEX Act in response. This would allow funds to pass on voting preferences to clients. The bill failed to pass, but it has been reintroduced. On Tuesday, Sullivan posted on Facebook, "I commend Trump's administration for looking again at policies like the INDEX Act, which I have previously introduced, in order to fix this massive distortion of the market." As skeptics grew in their attacks on environmental and social causes the votes of the Big Three dropped sharply between 2022 and this year, putting many resolutions at risk. Vanguard for example, did not support any such resolutions in the past year, while BlackRock supported only 2%. According to the fund firms, they responded based upon the merits of new propositions after many companies had made changes. The fund firms have also introduced "pass-through vote" programs, as Sullivan wants. However, these are still limited due to technical reasons. Boardroom Allies The Big Three have also emerged as allies of CEOs who are facing activist funds that want to replace directors in highly-publicized proxy contests. Take a look at?one the most important boardroom battles of this year. It was Phillips 66's in May. After a bitter election campaign, the company and activist Elliott Investment Management won each two seats. Elliott was pushing for asset sales while management stuck to its strategy. The Big Three accounted for about a third all votes cast. Disclosures reveal that they backed each of the four Phillips 66 Candidates. The activist candidates would all have won without the Big Three. James?Copland is a senior fellow with the Manhattan Institute, a conservative think tank. He has proposed an executive order that would require passive funds "mirror voting" the votes cast by active investors. This would reduce the influence of The Big Three. Copland, despite their recent pro management stances said that he still hopes new restrictions will be placed on index fund voting. He said that nothing prevents them from changing their vote once the political winds change. State?Street refused to comment. Vanguard's spokesman pointed to a letter sent to banking regulators by the Pennsylvania fund company last year, in which it advocated for one standard of "passivity" among index funds. The spokesman said that Vanguard plans to expand its Investor Choice Voting program. BlackRock declined to comment on the remarks made by CEO Larry Fink at a New York Times DealBook Conference last week. Fink said that limiting the voting of his funds would empower other investors. Fink stated that "almost every CEO who approaches BlackRock about this issue is afraid of the outcome."
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Silver extends its rally above $60; gold dips ahead Fed decision
The gold price fell on Wednesday, as investors awaited a rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve and clues about future policy. Silver prices meanwhile?extended? their rally to new heights. At 1113 GMT, spot gold had fallen 0.4% to $4193.60 an ounce. U.S. Gold Futures for February Delivery were down 0.3% at $4,221.60 an ounce. Spot silver rose 0.7% to $61.11/oz, after reaching an all-time record of $61.61 in the previous session. This was due to rising industrial demand, falling inventories and its designation by?the United States as a critical metal. The white metal is up 112% this year. Silver broke through the $60 an ounce mark, attracting more short-term traders and trend followers to the market. Carsten Menke, Julius Baer's analyst, said that this also reflects a narrative of a physical tightness on the silver market. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) policy meeting ends later. A rate cut is expected to be announced by 1900 GMT, and Jerome Powell will speak at 1930 GMT. Markets assign an 88% chance of a 25 basis-point reduction. Nitesh Sha, commodities analyst at WisdomTree said that gold was currently trading in a range until the FOMC announced its decision. "What will move gold? Not necessarily the cut itself, but rather the guidance for future," he added. Benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury Yields are at their highest level in more than three month. The demand for gold, as measured by the holdings of physical-backed products, was lower than for silver in the last few weeks. Menke said that they see this as being the primary factor preventing gold from gaining traction. Carolane de Palmas, an analyst at ActivTrades, said that "gold's performance is one of the primary drivers of silver price volatility -- any correction in gold can lead to increased volatility in silver." Kevin Hassett is the White House's economic adviser and the leading candidate to succeed Powell as Fed Chair. He said on Tuesday that "there was plenty of room" for further interest rate cuts, but rising inflation might change this calculation. Gold and other non-yielding investments are favored by lower rates. RBC Capital Markets increased its long-term forecasts for gold prices to an average $4,600 per 1 ounce by 2026, and $5,100 in 2027. They cited geopolitical risk, a softer monetary policies, and persistent deficits. Palladium dropped 0.7%, to $1,495.88, while platinum fell 1.7%, to $1662.33. Reporting by Pablo Sinha from Bengaluru. Alexandra Hudson, Mark Potter and Alexandra Hudson edited the article.
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Marubeni expects Japan aluminum premiums to be between $85 and $203 by 2026
Marubeni Corp, a trading house, said that Japanese buyers will pay premiums between $85 and $203 per metric ton of aluminium in 2026 as overseas premiums are higher. This is because the flow to Asia has been reduced due to higher premiums, which have also slowed down. Japan is a major aluminum importer in Asia. The amount it pays for primary metal shipments above the London Metal Exchange Cash Price each quarter sets the benchmark for Asia. Japanese premiums have been lowered to $86 per tonne due to a combination of sluggish demand, ample supply and low prices. This quarter, the price was $228 compared to $190-$203 in January-March. In negotiations that began earlier this month for shipments in January-March, global suppliers have offered premiums between $190 and $203 per ton above the benchmark price. This is up 121%-136% compared to this quarter. Marubeni is one of Japan’s largest aluminum traders. They forecast Japan premiums of $140-$203 per tonne in January-March. $125-$200 from April-June. And a range between $85-$175 in the remainder of 2026. IMPACT OF US TARIFFS ON PREMIUMS "Premiums are rising in Europe and America amid concerns about supply and tariffs. This is raising fears that flows into Asia will be reduced, and has pushed up Japanese spot premiums over the past few weeks," Eisuke Akasaka said, General Manager of Marubeni's Light Metals Section. He noted that spot?premiums had risen to almost $140. Akasaka noted that an outage in a smelter located in Iceland and the expectation of the potential mothballing South32's Mozambique aluminum smelter, as well as front-loading before a new Carbon?Border Adaptation Mechanism under the EU have all contributed to the increase of European premiums. U.S. premiums are up because of high import tariffs. Akasaka said he expects European premiums will ease in the second halves of 2026, as the underlying demand is weak. This would lead to a small decline in Japanese premiums during the same period. (Reporting and editing by Barbara Lewis; Yuka Obayashi)
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GE Vernova shares rise after bullish 2026 revenue outlook, buyback boost
GE Vernova shares rose by more than 8% on Wednesday in premarket trading after the company forecasted higher revenue for '2026, and a $4 Billion increase 'in its share buyback program. This was due to rising demand for GE Vernova power equipment used in data centers. GE Vernova is positioned to expand in the United States for a longer period of time, thanks to its continued growth across its gas turbine and grid businesses. Vernova, which was spun-off from General Electric in 2024, has seen a?rise of more than 370%. The stock jumped?8.2% before the bell Wednesday to $676.46. GE Vernova increased its share repurchase authority to $10 billion, up from $6 billion. It also doubled the quarterly dividend per share to 50 cents. Analysts at Jefferies said that the forecast was "well over on margins, EBITDA, and FCF," pointing out the "uniquely positive" outlook of the company's free cash flow for 2026 as well as the positive electrification margins above 20%. The company anticipates a 16% to 18% growth in organic revenue in 'its power segment, and a 20% increase in electrification in 2026. It?projected a free cash flow between $4.5 and $5.0 billion in the next year. This is higher than the $3.5 to 4 billion it expected to reach by 2025.
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The price of 2026 diesel is higher at major Asian refineries
According to several trade sources, major Asian refineries have signed term agreements for diesel exports by 2026, at a higher premium than the benchmark Singapore prices this year. This is supported by the firmer prices of November. The spot premiums for refiners’?sales? of 10ppm diesel in December were at their highest level in two years as the?prompt?supplies tightened because refinery outages exceeded expectations and year-end demand by regional importers increased, traders reported. The higher premiums on 2026 supply indicates that traders are still bullish about the prospects for motor and industrial fuel in the coming year. Three sources familiar with this matter claim that the Taiwanese refiner Formosa Petrochemical Corp. (FPCC), sold two cargoes of 750,000 barrels per month at 10ppm sulphur to a Western trading house for a premium of 60-70c a barrel. They added that two more?buyers can load a 750,000-barrel shipment every quarter for a premium of up to 80 cents a barrel. The contract prices for this year were higher by 20-40 cents a barrel. The 'premiums' for diesel and jet-fuel are largely up on an annual basis due to'stronger forecasts of supply-demand next year', said FPCC spokesperson KY Lin. However, he declined comment on the deal. He added, "We expect global supply-demand fundamentals to be better than this year for most oil products such as diesel and jet fuel due to some refinery closures and shutdowns since the second half of this year." Some refineries in Asia have experienced longer than expected outages. Others on the West Coast of the U.S. West Coast refineries have permanently closed due to high cost. SK Energy (a unit of SK Innovation) and GS Caltex, two South Korean oil companies, have been selling?several cargoes of 10ppm sulphur-free diesel per month? to a few Western trading houses as well as regional end users at a premium of 30 cents a barrel?, compared to around 20 cents a barrel this year? SK Energy and GS Caltex didn't immediately respond to our requests for comment. Two sources confirmed that Japan-origin barriques were also being discussed, with premiums of 30-50 cents per barrique. However, further details couldn't be confirmed. Traders said that FPCC?and GS Caltex jet fuel and kerosene were both sold at a premium of 80 cents up to $1 per barrel compared to FOB Singapore prices. Several buyers took advantage of this opportunity to lock in supplies, expecting a stronger heating demand through the first quarter next year. Reporting by Trixie YAP. Joyce Lee contributed additional reporting. Mark Potter (Editor)
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Copper prices rise on the prospect of support for Chinese real estate sector
On Wednesday, copper prices rose, returning to record levels on the back of hopes for more stimulus, particularly in China's battered real estate sector. Benchmark three-month Copper on the London Metal Exchange rose?1.2%?to $11,624 per metric ton at 1005 GMT, after falling by 1.3% Tuesday. It had reached a record high of $11,771 one day earlier. The shares of China's real estate sector soared on Wednesday, amid unsubstantiated market rumours about a government mortgage subsidy package worth 400 billion yuan (56.63 billion dollars). Property is one of the largest consumers of industrial metals, including copper. Dan Smith, managing Director?at Commodity Market Analytics, said: "A lot of?data from China recently was pretty abysmal in construction. It wouldn't?surprise me at all if there will be more stimulus for that part of economy to continue to grow." Analysts said that a stimulus for the Chinese economy as a whole was needed. Data on Wednesday revealed?that domestic demand is still weak and deflationary pressures persist. LME copper prices have risen 32% in this year, on fears of mine disruptions leading to deficits. Also, the flow of metals into the U.S. has tightened the supply of the rest of world. "I think that the risk for now is still on the upside. Smith stated that he had a "hunch" we would reach $12,000 by the end of the calendar year. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's most traded copper contract closed the daytime trade down 0.2%, at 91.850 yuan per ton. The U.S. Federal Reserve, expected to cut rates on Wednesday afternoon, may also dampen expectations for further rate cuts. Analysts at Chinese broker Jinrui stated that investors have'scaled back their positions due to the uncertainty of future rate cuts. The expected supply pressure outside of the U.S. keeps prices high and volatile. Other metals saw a 0.3% rise in LME aluminium to $2,863.50 per ton. Lead rose by 0.2% at $1,983, Nickel increased 0.2% at $14,760. Tin gained 1.4% at $40,400, while zinc fell 0.1% to 3,086.50.
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A Chinese rare earth manufacturer receives a streamlined license for magnet exports
Ningbo Jintian Copper, a Chinese rare earth producer, announced on Wednesday that it had obtained streamlined export?licences. After a meeting in late October between Donald Trump, the U.S. counterpart of President Xi Jinping, and Xi's Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping, the?new general licences? are intended to allow individual customers more exports with year-long permits. On an investor interactive platform, Ningbo Jintian Copper said that its rare earth magnets are used in electric cars, wind turbines and robots as well as consumer electronics, medical equipment, and consumer electronic products. Last week, it was reported that three Chinese rare-earth magnet manufacturers including JL Mag Rare Earth Ningbo Yunsheng High-Tech and Beijing Zhongke San Huan High-Tech secured the licenses which would allow them to speed up exports to certain customers. Beijing added several rare earth elements and magnets in early April to its export control list, requiring dual-use licenses for export. China's exports of rare-earth magnets plummeted in April and may, forcing automakers to shut down parts of their production. The dual-use license regime will continue to exist. Reporting by Beijing Newsroom. (Editing by Jan Harvey, Mark Potter and Jan Harvey)
Russell: China's modest stimulus does not have a big impact on commodities.
China has largely promised to continue the mild stimulus policy of last year, despite hopes that China's annual parliament meeting would bring a significant economic boost and boost commodities. The announcement of a 5% economic growth goal and the promise to increase consumption and combat any negative effects of the trade war with the United States was encouraging.
The parliament meeting of this week was also far short of any sort of announcements of stimuli that could have given commodity markets confidence that China, as the largest buyer of natural resources in the world, will see a meaningful increase in imports by 2025.
What's likely to happen is that the same trends as in 2024 will continue, with some commodities performing better than others, but overall, the story remains one of modest growth.
Data from the first half of this year suggests that China's imports are continuing on their recent path.
LSEG Oil Research estimates that China's crude oil imports in February were 10.75 million barrels a day (bpd), up from January's 10.1 mbpd but down from the 2024 customs figure of 11,04 mbpd.
The government has encouraged consumers to switch to new energy vehicles, which can be either hybrids or full-electric vehicles.
The subsidy program for switching to NEVs as well as more efficient appliances in the home was expanded this year. This means that NEVs will continue to grow rapidly, and now account for more than half of all new car sales.
The news isn't good for those who hoped that the increased focus on consumer spending would lead to a stronger demand for steel.
In a draft report by the state planner, China revealed for the first time in the last five years a plan to reduce crude steel production in 2025.
The report did not specify the steel output target, but it is likely to be less than 1 billion tons. This is the level at which China's production of steel has fluctuated around since 2019.
China's imports will be affected if steel production drops from the 1,005 billion tons in 2024. These are the two main raw materials.
COAL, IRON ORE
China imports around 75% of the seaborne iron ore in the world, but they are not off to a good start by 2025.
Kpler estimates that February arrivals will be 83.92 millions tons, the lowest total since April 2019. This is down from 104.34 in January.
Imports may have been affected by the Lunar New Year holidays in February, but adding them to Kpler's estimate for January gives an average daily of 3,19 million tons over the first two month of the year. This is down from the 3.39 million tons of 2024.
Kpler estimates that China's seaborne coal imports have fallen to 29.82 millions tons in 2025. This is the lowest level since February 2024, and is down from 35.9 million tons in January.
It is likely that the decline in coal imports reflects lower domestic fuel prices which have led to a rise in inventories, and a reduction of demand for imported fuel.
The announcements made by China this week were positive for commodities, especially those that are associated with energy transition.
In a Wednesday statement, the National Development and Reform Commission announced that China would develop new offshore wind farm and accelerate construction of "new energy bases" in the western desert areas of the country.
China's continued focus on renewable energy is good for its demand for metals like copper, aluminum and silver which are used in the manufacturing of solar panels.
The Shanghai exchange's copper contracts rose as early as Thursday morning, rising as much as 1.1 percent to 77.990 yuan (10,757) per ton. They are now up by 5.2% from the end of the last year. Aluminium futures were only up 0.5%.
The ongoing commitment to build renewable energy capacity in China and increase the share of NEVs is a reason for some optimism. However, the residential real estate sector continues to be a source of concern.
The potential impact of trade wars launched by Donald Trump's administration, which could slow down global growth and increase inflation, is a greater concern.
These are the views of the columnist, who is also an author. (Editing by Stephen Coates).
(source: Reuters)