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Trudeau: Canada and US will continue to be at war in the near future.
Justin Trudeau, the Prime Minister, said that Canada would continue to be involved in a war of trade with the United States, for the foreseeable. This was a day following what Trudeau called a "colorful call" with President Donald Trump. Trudeau reiterated that Canada will continue to engage senior Trump Administration officials regarding tariffs Washington has said it will impose against Canadian imports. He also stated his desire to have the measures removed. He told reporters in Ottawa that "I can confirm we will continue to engage in a US-led trade war for the foreseeable" future. Canada immediately imposed tariffs of 25% on US imports worth C$30 billion. Trudeau stated that these measures would continue until the Trump administration ended their trade action. Trudeau, Trudeau, and Trump held a phone call for 50 minutes on Wednesday. Trump accuses Canada not doing enough in order to stop the flow fentanyl, and of illegal migrants, across the border. It was a colorful phone call. Trudeau said that it was a substantive call, but added that both sides were still in discussions and had no announcements yet. "We're... trying our best to ensure that these tariffs do not overly hurt, at least in the short-term, certain sectors." A common topic of discussion is whether Canada will delay a second round 25% tariffs that are due to be implemented in less than 3 weeks on another C$125 billion worth of U.S. imported goods. Trump will Exempt The White House announced on Wednesday that automakers will be exempt from tariffs against Canada and Mexico as long as they adhere to existing free-trade rules. Trudeau said that "any carve-outs which support workers in Canada – even if they are just for one particular industry – will be good." The Canadian Prime Minister will resign once the Liberal Party, which is ruling in Canada, chooses a leader for this Sunday. He has had a bad relationship with Trump, and he took a shot at the president who made his name as a real-estate mogul. "A win-lose would be worse than a win. He said that this is true for international trade and in the relations between nations. He said that in the real estate business, a win/lose deal is better than a "win-win" for those who are experienced. Reporting by David Ljunggren, Promit Mukherjee and Andrea Ricci; editing by Chizu nomiyama.
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Sudan files case against United Arab Emirates before the World Court
The International Court of Justice announced on Thursday that Sudan had filed a complaint against the United Arab Emirates for allegedly breaching its obligations under Genocide Convention through the arming of the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces. A UAE official stated in a press release that the United Arab Emirates would seek an immediate dismissal of this case. The UAE said there was no "legal or factual basis" for it. The charges relate to the intense ethnic-based attacks carried out by the RSF, and other Arab militias in West Darfur in 2023 against the non Arab Masalit tribe. These attacks were documented in great detail by. The United States declared these attacks genocide in January. The Sudanese Foreign Ministry did not respond immediately to a comment request. The government's application has been seen. Sudanese officials accuse the UAE frequently of supporting RSF, government rivals in a civil war that has lasted almost two years. The UAE denies the charges, but U.N. expert and U.S. legislators have found them credible. Sudan has filed a complaint with the ICJ alleging that the RSF is responsible for "genocide and murder, theft of properties, rapes, forced displacement, trespassings, vandalism, destruction of public property, and violations of human rights." It said that "according to Sudan, these acts were 'perpetrated' and 'enabled' by the United Arab Emirates' direct support of the rebel RSF and other militia groups," it added. The official from the UAE said: "The UAE has been made aware of the recent submission by the Sudanese armed forces representative to the International Court of Justice. This is nothing but a cynical public relations stunt designed to divert attention away from the complicity of Sudanese armed forces (SAF) with the atrocities which continue to destroy Sudan and its people." The war between Sudanese Army and RSF, which broke out after a power battle over the integration of forces in April 2023 has devastated the nation, spreading disease and hunger, while also threatening its fragmentation. It has attracted several foreign powers. The war has caused ethnic violence in many areas. However, the most bloody attacks were reported in West Darfur. There, survivors said that Masalit children were killed and young women raped in waves of attacks shortly after the conflict began. The ICJ is U.N.'s highest court. It deals with disputes between countries and violations of international agreements. Sudan and the UAE both signed the 1948 Genocide Convention. Sudan asks the court to issue emergency measures, and order the Emirates not to commit such acts of genocidal violence. The ICJ will hear the case in a few weeks. However, it may take several years for the court to issue a ruling that could determine if a genocidal act has been committed in Darfur. RSF and its allies are in the process setting up a rival government to that of the army-aligned group which has taken Port Sudan, on the Red Sea. This move was rejected by Egypt and Saudi Arabia. (Reporting and writing by Maha El-Dahan, Stephanie van den Berg Khalid Abdelaziz and Bart Meijer, Editing by Toby Chopra & William Maclean; Writing by Nafisa eltahir)
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Citgo Petroleum's profits plummeted by $305 million in 2024
Citgo Petroleum, a U.S. refiner owned by Venezuela, reported a net profit of $305 million last year. This was below the projected $2 billion profit for 2023. The company also revealed a loss of $146 million in the fourth quarter. The ownership of the seventh-largest refiner in the United States could change if the winning bidder for its shares is selected in a Delaware court-organized auction to compensate 18 creditors who have defaulted on debts or been expropriated in Venezuela. In 2024, a "deteriorating price environment" coupled with lower volumes processed of oil earlier in the year resulted in lower profitability. The fourth quarter loss was attributed to weak refining margins. Last year, the refinery's total production was 811 000 barrels per day. Of this amount, crude runs accounted for 753,000 barrels per daily (bpd) with a 93% utilization rate. These numbers were consistent with those of the previous year. The Corpus Christi refinery, which processes crude at 167,000 bpd and has a capacity of 463,000 bpd, increased its crude utilization rate to 96% after finishing maintenance and turnaround activities in the fourth quarter. In the third quarter, the Lemont refinery, located in Illinois and processing mostly Canadian crude oil, recorded a crude usage of 98%. Citgo's Chief Executive Carlos Jorda said that despite the fact that the fourth quarter was a low-margin period, the reliability of the company and its highest average quarterly crude utilization rate were not enough to compensate for it. He added, "We continued to implement our strategic initiatives while we fought a difficult market throughout the year." Citgo's volume of marketing sales for the year totaled 421,000 bpd. Citgo's trading activities were expanded into new markets including South Africa and Japan, and the firm saw a rise in sales of jet-fuel to airlines. Investors are looking for year-end liquidity to determine bids at the auction organized by the court. This has declined from $4 billion to $3.8 billion, which includes a securitization and secured notes facility. Cash on hand was used to redeem all outstanding senior secured notes of $1.125 billion due in June 2025.
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Study finds that Germany's lithium reserves can sustain domestic demand for decades
A study released on Thursday showed that Germany has enough lithium reserves for its own needs over several decades. Berlin is trying to increase its production of electric vehicles and reduce its dependence on imports. According to the German Raw Materials Agency, Germany's lithium consumption could reach up to 0.17 millions metric tons annually by 2030. The German automotive industry imports lithium from Australia, Argentina Chile and China in order to meet its battery production requirements. Researchers and companies are exploring ways to extract the lithium byproduct from geothermal energy in Germany's Upper Rhine Valley, to increase domestic supply as well as renewable heating and electricity solutions. The Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources and Fraunhofer IEG found that Germany has up to 26,51 million metric tonnes of lithium in deep underground water, especially in the North German Basin and central Thuringian Basin. This assessment of potential was new. "When you add it all up, there are surprisingly large lithium reserves lying dormant below the earth's surface," Katharina A. Alms, Fraunhofer IEG research leader, said. Geologists estimate that in 2021 the Upper Rhine Valley, located in the Black Forest region of southwest Germany, will hold enough lithium to power more than 400,000,000 electric vehicles. Despite concerns about the difficulty of extracting lithium, Lithium exploration in Germany has increased. Esso Deutschland, a subsidiary of ExxonMobil, received four exploration licenses in Lower Saxony last December. Neptune Energy, a German oil company, announced in August that it had received exploration permits in the eastern state Saxony Anhalt. Alms stated that extracting lithium from Germany is not easy as there are no high concentrations everywhere, and exploration can be unpredictable. She added that many of the lithium deposits are trapped in rocks with low permeability, which makes extraction difficult. Surface extraction methods can also be time-consuming and complex to implement at large scales. According to the ZVEI trade group, Germany will import 23.7 billion Euros worth of lithium batteries by 2023.
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South African Health Agency calls for phase-out of coal-fired electricity stations
A South African government agency that is influential recommended Thursday that the country phase out its coal-fired energy stations. It published a study over ten years which showed people who lived near these power plants were 6% more susceptible to dying than those living elsewhere. South African officials, as well as citizens, are arguing over how quickly the country should implement a programme partly funded by donors to move away from coal and towards solar and wind power. The fossil fuel is responsible for three-quarters of the country's power, and 90,000 jobs are supported by it. The South African Medical Research Council and the Department for International Development of Britain (DFID), in a report, collected and compared nearly 3 million death records from 1997-2018. The study found that communities near power plants had higher rates of birth defects, and deaths among all age groups -- particularly from heart and lung diseases. Caradee Wright, co-author of the report in Pretoria, said: "Some recommendations include... the decommissioning of power stations." She said, "We know... it won't happen right away." "But... (coal-fired energy) has such a negative effect on human health." Wright called for a more strict enforcement of the harmful emission limits in South Africa’s coal belt. The region is home to 3.6 million people. Eskom, the state-owned power company, and Sasol, the coal-to liquid fuel producer, are often exempted from these limits by the African National Congress, which is divided on the future of coal-fired plants in the country.
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The bond market continues to sell off after the German spending pledge
The world financial markets continued to readjust their course after U.S. president Donald Trump's shaking up of the transatlantic relations prompted a seismic shift in German infrastructure and defence spending. As expected, the European Central Bank has cut interest rates once again. They also said that monetary policy is becoming less restrictive. This led traders to believe that another cut could not be guaranteed in April, giving a boost to the euro. This would normally be enough to distract traders. It was only one factor among many. A global bond market sale is still underway a day after Germany's 10-year Bund yield, a major driver for borrowing costs worldwide, saw its largest rise since the 1990s. These Bund yields are now up by 6 basis points to 2.847% after reaching as high as 2,929% on Tuesday. After the decision, the euro rose up to 0.5% and reached a four-month high at $1.0845. European stocks took a break after a 10% gain this year. Jim Reid of Deutsche Bank said that the Bund yield spike on Wednesday was the largest since German unification in 1990. This is a seismic change of epic proportions, and only nimble and fast-money investors have responded thus far. Overnight, the global implications became apparent. The yield on the 10-year Japanese government bond, another important driver of borrowing costs worldwide, has reached a 16-year high. Meanwhile, in the early U.S. trade, the yield on 10-year Treasury notes was rising again despite increasing bets that more Federal Reserve rate reductions would follow recent patchy US data. The focus remained on global trade after the United States imposed 25% tariffs on imports of goods from Mexico and Canada on Tuesday, along with new duties on Chinese products. White House said Wednesday that Mexican and Canadian automakers will be exempt from their respective countries' tariffs during the month of March, as long as they comply with existing free-trade rules. Wall Street futures predicted that the S&P 500 index would fall again when trading resumes in Wall Street. The S&P 500 index has been in the red this year after a difficult run that saw it fall eight times in the last ten sessions. MSCI's broadest Asia-Pacific share index outside Japan closed at 1.25% higher, while Tokyo's Nikkei ended 0.8% higher. China's blue chip index rose by another 1.4%, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index soared over 3%. It reached its highest level in three years. This is a significant world market-topping surge of 20% for 2025. RESPONSE OF THE ECB After U.S. President Donald Trump suspended military aid to Kyiv last week, fears were stoked that the region could no longer depend on U.S. security in place since World War Two. The euro was unchanged at $1.08 and just shy of the four-month high it reached during early Asian trading. The euro is expected to rise by more than 4% in the coming week, which would be its best performance since March 2009. Julien Lafargue is the chief market strategist of Barclays Private Bank. He said that this (ECB meeting) could be very exciting given the current circumstances. Lafargue stated that the ECB president Christine Lagarde would be asked how she plans to respond to Europe's increased defence spending. Gold prices fell by 0.4%, to $2,906 per ounce, ahead of the non-farm payrolls data due on Friday, which could provide clues about Federal Reserve policy. After a week of stumbling, oil prices are now trying to recover. This is due to a bigger than expected increase in U.S. crude stock, OPEC+'s plans to boost output and U.S. Tariffs on important oil supplies. Brent futures are at $69.52 per barrel, up by 0.35% for the day but still near three-year lows.
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IG Prime reports that investors are looking to switch hedge fund managers, citing performance, risk and size.
In a report released on Thursday, IG Prime said that about a quarter (25%) of investors surveyed were looking to switch hedge funds where they invest their money. They cited reasons such as risk, performance, and size. According to PivotalPath, a hedge fund research company, volatility in the financial markets boosted the performance of hedge funds globally in 2024. Returns averaged around 11% in the year. PivotalPath reported that hedge funds had returned 1.3% year-to date in 2025 as of the end of February. The IG Prime report 'The State of the Hedge Fund Industry" showed that 76% of 51 institutional clients surveyed said they will keep their hedge fund, but 24% would switch. The report stated that investors who wanted to move were unhappy with their hedge fund's performance and worried about the way they managed risk. Investors also worry about the size. Two fifths of respondents said they'd look for a smaller, more capable hedge fund manager. A quarter would go with a larger but less experienced one. The majority of respondents said that they are interested in hedge fund trading stocks. Over a third of respondents said they prefer multi-strategy funds that have multiple trading strategies all under one roof. The report said that only 8% of respondents were interested in commodity funds or those who trade derivatives on the basis of market volatility. Reporting by Nell Mackenzie, Editing by Dhara Raasinghe and Elaine Hardcastle
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UK lifts sanctions against Syria's central bank and petroleum companies
The British government unfroze assets belonging to the central bank of Syria and 23 other entities, including banks and oil firms. This is a reversal of sanctions that were imposed under Bashar al Assad's presidency. After more than 13 years in civil war, insurgents led by Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham ousted Assad from his position as president last December, the West has rethought its approach towards Syria. The British Government website posted a notice stating that entities such as the Central Bank, the Commercial Bank of Syria, and the Agricultural Cooperative Bank were delisted and no longer subject to a asset freeze. Syrian Petroleum Company (SPC), Syria Trading Oil Company SYTROL and Overseas Petroleum Trading are also delisted. Ahmed al-Sharaa, the Interim President of Syria, has repeatedly called for the lifting Western sanctions that were imposed during the civil conflict to isolate Assad. Last month, European Union member countries A range of sanctions are suspended Syria: The British Foreign Office did not provide a reason why the sanctions were lifted and did not respond immediately to a comment request. An official from the Syrian government's media did not respond immediately to a comment request. In February, (Reporting by Muvija M in London and Timour Azhari in Beirut Writing by Sam Tabahriti Editing by William James and Peter Graff) Reporting by Muvija in London, and Timour in Beirut. Writing by Sam Tabahriti. Editing by William James & Peter Graff.
Russell: China's modest stimulus does not have a big impact on commodities.
China has largely promised to continue the mild stimulus policy of last year, despite hopes that China's annual parliament meeting would bring a significant economic boost and boost commodities. The announcement of a 5% economic growth goal and the promise to increase consumption and combat any negative effects of the trade war with the United States was encouraging.
The parliament meeting of this week was also far short of any sort of announcements of stimuli that could have given commodity markets confidence that China, as the largest buyer of natural resources in the world, will see a meaningful increase in imports by 2025.
What's likely to happen is that the same trends as in 2024 will continue, with some commodities performing better than others, but overall, the story remains one of modest growth.
Data from the first half of this year suggests that China's imports are continuing on their recent path.
LSEG Oil Research estimates that China's crude oil imports in February were 10.75 million barrels a day (bpd), up from January's 10.1 mbpd but down from the 2024 customs figure of 11,04 mbpd.
The government has encouraged consumers to switch to new energy vehicles, which can be either hybrids or full-electric vehicles.
The subsidy program for switching to NEVs as well as more efficient appliances in the home was expanded this year. This means that NEVs will continue to grow rapidly, and now account for more than half of all new car sales.
The news isn't good for those who hoped that the increased focus on consumer spending would lead to a stronger demand for steel.
In a draft report by the state planner, China revealed for the first time in the last five years a plan to reduce crude steel production in 2025.
The report did not specify the steel output target, but it is likely to be less than 1 billion tons. This is the level at which China's production of steel has fluctuated around since 2019.
China's imports will be affected if steel production drops from the 1,005 billion tons in 2024. These are the two main raw materials.
COAL, IRON ORE
China imports around 75% of the seaborne iron ore in the world, but they are not off to a good start by 2025.
Kpler estimates that February arrivals will be 83.92 millions tons, the lowest total since April 2019. This is down from 104.34 in January.
Imports may have been affected by the Lunar New Year holidays in February, but adding them to Kpler's estimate for January gives an average daily of 3,19 million tons over the first two month of the year. This is down from the 3.39 million tons of 2024.
Kpler estimates that China's seaborne coal imports have fallen to 29.82 millions tons in 2025. This is the lowest level since February 2024, and is down from 35.9 million tons in January.
It is likely that the decline in coal imports reflects lower domestic fuel prices which have led to a rise in inventories, and a reduction of demand for imported fuel.
The announcements made by China this week were positive for commodities, especially those that are associated with energy transition.
In a Wednesday statement, the National Development and Reform Commission announced that China would develop new offshore wind farm and accelerate construction of "new energy bases" in the western desert areas of the country.
China's continued focus on renewable energy is good for its demand for metals like copper, aluminum and silver which are used in the manufacturing of solar panels.
The Shanghai exchange's copper contracts rose as early as Thursday morning, rising as much as 1.1 percent to 77.990 yuan (10,757) per ton. They are now up by 5.2% from the end of the last year. Aluminium futures were only up 0.5%.
The ongoing commitment to build renewable energy capacity in China and increase the share of NEVs is a reason for some optimism. However, the residential real estate sector continues to be a source of concern.
The potential impact of trade wars launched by Donald Trump's administration, which could slow down global growth and increase inflation, is a greater concern.
These are the views of the columnist, who is also an author. (Editing by Stephen Coates).
(source: Reuters)