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Marubeni expects Japan aluminum premiums to be between $85 and $203 by 2026

Marubeni expects Japan aluminum premiums to be between $85 and $203 by 2026
Marubeni expects Japan aluminum premiums to be between $85 and $203 by 2026

Marubeni Corp, a trading house, said that Japanese buyers will pay premiums between $85 and $203 per metric ton of aluminium in 2026 as overseas premiums are higher. This is because the flow to Asia has been reduced due to higher premiums, which have also slowed down.

Japan is a major aluminum importer in Asia. The amount it pays for primary metal shipments above the London Metal Exchange Cash Price each quarter sets the benchmark for Asia. Japanese premiums have been lowered to $86 per tonne due to a combination of sluggish demand, ample supply and low prices. This quarter, the price was $228 compared to $190-$203 in January-March. In negotiations that began earlier this month for shipments in January-March, global suppliers have offered premiums between $190 and $203 per ton above the benchmark price. This is up 121%-136% compared to this quarter.

Marubeni is one of Japan’s largest aluminum traders. They forecast Japan premiums of $140-$203 per tonne in January-March. $125-$200 from April-June. And a range between $85-$175 in the remainder of 2026.

IMPACT OF US TARIFFS ON PREMIUMS

"Premiums are rising in Europe and America amid concerns about supply and tariffs. This is raising fears that flows into Asia will be reduced, and has pushed up Japanese spot premiums over the past few weeks," Eisuke Akasaka said, General Manager of Marubeni's Light Metals Section. He noted that spot?premiums had risen to almost $140. Akasaka noted that an outage in a smelter located in Iceland and the expectation of the potential mothballing South32's Mozambique aluminum smelter, as well as front-loading before a new Carbon?Border Adaptation Mechanism under the EU have all contributed to the increase of European premiums. U.S. premiums are up because of high import tariffs.

Akasaka said he expects European premiums will ease in the second halves of 2026, as the underlying demand is weak. This would lead to a small decline in Japanese premiums during the same period. (Reporting and editing by Barbara Lewis; Yuka Obayashi)

(source: Reuters)