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Trade tensions are stoked by Sino-US tariffs that match each other.
Iron ore futures fell on Wednesday as a result of tit-fortat tariffs imposed by the U.S., and China, its largest consumer. However, prospects for a brighter steel market in China cushioned this fall. As of 0249 GMT, the most traded May iron ore contract at China's Dalian Commodity Exchange fell by 0.7% to 776 Yuan ($106.76). The benchmark April Iron Ore traded on the Singapore Exchange fell 1.07%, to $99.75 per ton. The U.S. President Donald Trump doubled the duties on Chinese products to 20% on Tuesday. This prompted a swift response from Beijing, and sparked trade war fears. Beijing has increased import duties on American agricultural and food goods worth $21 billion, suspended licenses for three U.S. companies to import soybeans and stopped log imports. Analysts at ANZ said that the prospect of additional tariffs also affected sentiment. Tariffs on aluminium and steel in the United States are set to begin on March 12th. China's economic growth goal has remained unchanged at 5%. It is increasing its stimulus program to offset the effects of higher U.S. Tariffs. A private sector survey revealed that the country's service activity expanded in February due to a stronger rebound in demand. The Chinese consultancy Mysteel stated that both the supply and demand for imported iron ore will increase in March. This is usually a month where steel consumption is high in China. This should help to keep the price of steelmaking materials stable. China announced on Wednesday that it would mandate output reductions to promote the restructuring of its struggling steel sector. The Shanghai Futures Exchange saw a decline in most steel benchmarks. The price of rebar fell by 0.27%; hot-rolled coil dropped by 0.24%; stainless steel declined nearly 0.35% while wire rod was flat. Coking coal and coke both fell by 2.19% and 1.8%, respectively. $1 = 7.2685 Chinese Yuan (Reporting and editing by Michele Pek)
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China will continue to reduce crude steel production in 2025
China announced on Wednesday that it will continue to regulate its crude steel production in 2025 as part of Beijing’s efforts at addressing the overcapacity, and increasing trade frictions faced by the industry. According to an official report, the world's largest consumer and steelmaker will "promote restructuring in the steel industry by reducing output". The report stated that "we will implement policies and measures to resolve structural problems in key industry sectors and end the phenomenon rat-race competitiveness through industrial regulation and upgrade." Chinese steelmakers are struggling to generate profits due to a prolonged downturn in the property market, which has affected domestic steel consumption. In addition, trade frictions with cheap Chinese products have also cast a cloud over its outlook for steel exports this year. China's strong steel exports have been criticized by a growing number of countries, who claim that cheap Chinese steel is destroying local steel manufacturers. Vietnam and South Korea are China's two top steel export destinations. They announced in February that they would impose antidumping duties on certain Chinese steel products. Beijing has begun to mandate zero growth annually in its crude steel production from 2021, to limit carbon emission. Official data revealed that China's steel production fell by 5.6% last year to 1.005 billion tonnes from a peak of 1.065 million tons in 2020.
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Shanghai's base metals prices fall on the back of trade war fears
Investors in Shanghai were frightened by a possible trade war between China and the United States, which are the two largest metals consumers, following the tit-fortat tariffs imposed by both countries. By 0205 GMT, the most active copper contract at the Shanghai Futures Exchange had fallen 0.4% to 76,870 Yuan ($10,581.74) per metric ton. Copper prices have been trending downwards amid fears of a potential global economic slowdown due to U.S. tariffs on trade and the retaliatory actions of U.S. trading partners. Kelvin Wong is OANDA’s senior analyst for Asia Pacific. The new tariffs of 25% on imports to the United States from Mexico and Canada, as well as a doubled duty on Chinese goods up to 20%, went into effect on Tuesday. China swiftly retaliated on Tuesday against the tariffs. The world's two largest economies are now one step closer to a full-blown trade war. The National People's Congress will begin on March 5th and close on the 11th afternoon. Given the ongoing tariff battle and concerns over a slowing of demand, the market is eager to learn if there are any additional stimulus measures. China's economic growth target was unchanged for this year at around 5%. It has committed more resources fiscally than last year in order to combat deflationary forces and reduce the impact of increasing U.S. tariffs. SHFE aluminium dropped 0.4% to 20 595 yuan per ton. Zinc fell 0.9% to 23 530 yuan. Nickel eased by 0.3% to 12 6,70 yuan. Tin lost 0.5% to 25 5,480 yuan. Lead increased 0.2% to 17280 yuan. The London Metal Exchange's (LME) three-month copper rose by 0.3%, to $9.374.5 per metric ton. LME aluminium remained at $2.617 per ton. Zinc gained 0.1%, to $2.812.5. Nickel fell 0.4%, to $15.920. Tin remained at $31,580. Lead stayed at $2.009.
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Stanford and Notre Dame will be the sites of a shootout between the ACC's top scorers
Stanford, riding a winning streak of three games, all at home, hopes to turn its fortunes around on the road as the regular season concludes. While winning anywhere is still a challenge for Notre Dame. The Cardinal will be looking to avoid a third straight loss on the road when they face off against the Fighting Irish in Wednesday's ACC matchup at South Bend, Ind. Stanford (19-10,11-7) is having a solid first ACC campaign thanks to a 9-1 record at home, capped off by Saturday's 73 68 victory over SMU. The Cardinal are on their way to their second consecutive 20-win season in Kyle Smith's debut season as head coach. Maxime Raynaud said, "It's good to win." He is the leader of the team with 20.2 and 10.9 points. "I believe we did an excellent job setting up a new culture with the new coaching team." "... Everyone bought in together." Stanford is currently 2-6 on the road in the ACC. Raynaud averaged a total of 23 points per game when Stanford won the three-game home sweep, but only 15 points per game while they are losing the three games away. In league games played at home, the Cardinal averaged 64.8 points per game. On the road, that number jumped to 81.4. Notre Dame (12-17 and 6-12) splits its eight ACC games at home to date. The Irish ended a three-game skid at home with their 76–72 win over Pitt in February, but have since lost games to then–No. Since then, the Irish have lost to Wake Forest and No. 13 Clemson. The only positive for Notre Dame may be sophomore guard Markus Burton. He is the ACC leader in scoring at 21.1 per game. He scored 59 in the two last games, including a 9-for-16 effort in Saturday's 74 -71 loss to Wake. Micah Shrewsberry, Irish coach, said: "He has been consistent in what he does." "He is ready for the next training session and game and to keep fighting and competing." Field Level Media
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Oil prices fall as OPEC+ plans a higher output and U.S. Tariffs hammer sentiment
Investor sentiment was hammered by the third consecutive session of oil price declines as major producers announced plans to increase production in April. This is coupled with fears that U.S. Tariffs on Canada Mexico and China would slow down economic growth and fuel demand. Brent futures were 15 cents lower at $70.89 per barrel by 0200 GMT. The contract had fallen to its lowest level since September 11 and was settled at that lowest price. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI), which had settled at its lowest price since December, fell by 40 cents per barrel or 0.6% to $67.86. Prices dropped to $66.77 during the previous session. This was the lowest price since November 18. Analysts at Citi stated that the "OPEC+ decision" to increase production again was a "materially bearish development", as it would loosen markets just at the time when U.S. macro-data are beginning to soften. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC+) and its allies, including Russia, a collective known as OPEC+ decided Monday to increase production for the first since 2022. The group plans to increase production by 138,000 barrels a day starting in April. This is the first of planned monthly increases that will unwind nearly 6 million barrels a day of reductions, which equals nearly 6% global demand. Tuesday, a 25% tariff was imposed on all Mexican imports. A 10% tariff was imposed on Canadian energy. And the duties on Chinese products were doubled to 20%. The Trump administration has also imposed tariffs of 25% on all Canadian imports. Economists see the self-declared U.S. trade war declared by President Donald Trump as a recipe that could lead to fewer jobs, slower economic growth and higher prices which may kill demand. Lower economic growth is likely to impact fuel consumption for the world's largest oil consumer. According to traders and analysts, the retail price of gasoline in the United States is expected to rise as a result of the new tariffs on energy imports. The Trump administration announced on Tuesday that it would end a license granted by the U.S. to U.S. oil company Chevron to operate in Venezuela since 2022 and to export its oil. Market sources cited American Petroleum Institute data on Tuesday to confirm that U.S. crude stockpiles fell by 1,46 million barrels during the week ending February 28. Investors are now awaiting government data due Wednesday on U.S. oil stockpiles. (Editing by Christian Schmollinger).
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US Dollar pressured by Trump Trade War as China NPC begins
The U.S. Dollar dropped to a three-month high versus major counterparts on Wednesday, while Asian shares were mixed following the latest round U.S. Tariffs and countermeasures by Canada and China. This stoked concerns of an escalating Trade War. China's Yuan was steady in offshore trading after a rally of 0.7% the previous session. The annual National People's Congress sessions began with Beijing maintaining a 5% growth target for 2025. As German political parties agreed on a 500 billion euro infrastructure fund, the euro reached a four-month high. Sterling was also at a near three-month high. After a volatile and erratic week, crude oil fell to its lowest level in six months. Meanwhile, bitcoin settled around $87,000. Kyle Rodda is a senior financial market analyst at Capital.com. He said that fears about a weaker U.S. economy and a global one are manifested in the markets. Cyclicals are driving the sell-off. The uncertainty keeps investors on edge, and American consumers are likely feeling the same. The Australian stock market fell 0.9% while the Nikkei 225 index in Japan dipped 0.2%, reversing small gains. The futures for Hong Kong Hang Seng rose 0.6%. Overnight the U.S. S&P500 fell 1.2% but Wednesday's futures rose by 0.6%. The MSCI world equity index rose 0.1% but was still 1.9% lower than the previous week. Tuesday, U.S. President Donald Trump imposed 25% tariffs on imported goods from Mexico and Canada. The doubled 20% duties on Chinese products also took effect. China and Canada responded, while Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum promised to retaliate in the same way without providing details. The U.S. Dollar Index, which measures currency against the Euro, Sterling and four other major rivals, was little altered at 105.60 after a two day 1.9% decline that brought it down to 105.49, for the first time in December. In the most recent session, the euro reached a high of $1.0637 in its latest session for the first since November 13. The pound was stable at $1.2786. This is not far off the peak seen on Tuesday of $1.27995, which was last seen in December. The conservatives and social democrats in Germany announced plans to create a 500 billion-euro infrastructure fund and change borrowing rules for increased defence spending. China's offshore Yuan fell by about 0.1%, to $7.2604 per US dollar. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI), which is a benchmark for U.S. crude oil, fell 0.6% to $66.73. Reporting by Kevin Buckland, Editing by Muralikumar Aantharaman
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Andy Home: Tin bulls retreat as Myanmar flags the return of a key mine
The Wa State in Myanmar, a semiautonomous region, has finally broken a year-long silence about the fate of Man Maw Tin Mine. The mine is a jewel in Myanmar's crown of tin and its suspension, since August 2023 ostensibly to conduct an audit, has cut the flow of raw tin materials into Chinese smelters thereby reducing the output of refined metal. The Wa authorities now say they are ready for applications to be submitted for mining and processing licenses at Man Maw. This indicates that it is likely to return in the second half of this year. The International Tin Association confirmed the news and the London Metal Exchange's (LME) tin prices have fallen. MAN MAW RETURNS Myanmar, after China and Indonesia, is the third largest producer of tin in the world. Man Maw was the largest tin mine until it was suspended. As the Wa State, which controls Myanmar’s tin industry, does not have smelters, all of the tin mined is sent over to China’s Yunnan Province. The raw material shipment patterns were not much different in the first few months after the suspension of Man Maw operations, as the above-ground stock was processed. China's imports of Myanmar products have dropped significantly in the last nine-month period, from 54,900 metric tons during the first half of this year to 94,600 metric tons for the previous year. Some smaller tin mining operations have reopened but they are nowhere near as important as Man Maw. Chinese producers have tried compensating by reducing imports of other countries, such as Australia, Bolivia and the Democratic Republic of Congo. The total imports of raw tin materials in 2024 were down 36% on an annual basis, and were at 156.700 tons the lowest since 2010. Lack of raw materials has impacted smelter margins, and is a major factor in China's refine metal production. BULLS WITH WRONG-FOOTED Unsurprisingly, the news of Man Maw’s return caused a sale in London's tin market. LME's three-month metal soared to a four month high of $33,790 a ton on the 21st of February. Tin was the top performer of the LME base materials with gains to date of 15.8%. Funds have been increasing their bull bets steadily on higher prices. At the end of last weekend, long positioning had reached a new record of 5,172 contracts. This is equivalent to nearly 26,000 tons. Last week, after the ITA confirmed that Man Maw would return, the price of a ton dropped to $31,050. This week it has risen to as high as $32,145. It is not unreasonable to expect a partial price recovery, given that it could be several months until the mine starts producing tin once again. RISK OF STRUCTURAL SUPPLY The Wa State's announcement that it is ready for licenses is just the first step in a complete reopening. The ITA states that even after licenses have been granted, it may take a few months for workers, mainly those from China, in order to obtain work permits and return to Myanmar. After such a long period of suspension, it is likely that the mine will need to be dewatered. This means that the shipments into China will only begin to pick up in the second half. Chinese smelters continue to face a shortage of raw materials and the production of refined metal will be affected until raw material flow returns to its pre-suspension level. The M23 rebels' advances to the east of Congo is a major concern for the tin supply market. So far, the Bisie mine in this country, which produced 17,324 metric tons of tin-contained concentrates last year, is unaffected. The mine is about 200 km west of the insurgent-controlled area, but Alphamin Resources Corp. has warned the increased risk at Bisie. This highlights tin’s structural supply issues. The market, which is touted to be a major beneficiary of the energy transition as well as the internet of things, is still dependent on a small number of global suppliers. The structural supply risk is not changed by the return of Man Maw. The author is a columnist at
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Sources say that the US and Ukraine are now planning to sign a mineral deal.
Four people with knowledge of the situation on Tuesday said that the U.S. administration under Donald Trump and Ukraine planned to sign a mineral deal, but it fell through following a disastrous Oval Office Meeting Friday during which Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy was ejected from the building. Three sources confirmed that Trump told his advisers he planned to announce the agreement during his speech to Congress on Tuesday night. However, they cautioned that the deal was not yet signed and that it could change. According to a Fox reporter's post on X, U.S. Treasury Sec. Scott Bessent said on Tuesday that there was no signing planned for the deal. The White House has not responded to a comment request. The Ukrainian Embassy in Washington and the Ukrainian Presidential Administration in Kyiv did not respond when asked for comments. After a heated meeting in the Oval Office between Trump and Zelenskiy, the deal was put on ice on Friday. The Ukrainian leader left the White House immediately after the contentious encounter. Zelenskiy traveled to Washington for the signing of the deal. In this meeting, Trump, and vice president JD Vance, reprimanded Zelenskiy for asking for more aid in front the U.S. press. Trump stated, "You are gambling with World War Three." According to a person familiar with the situation, U.S. officials spoke to officials in Kyiv in recent days about signing the mineral deal despite the Friday blow-up. They also urged Zelenskiy’s advisers convince the Ukrainian President to openly apologize to Trump. Zelenskiy said on X Tuesday that Ukraine is ready to sign the agreement and called the Oval Office Meeting "regrettable." Zelenskiy wrote in his blog that "our meeting at the White House in Washington on Friday did not go as it was intended." "Ukraine will come to the table to negotiate as soon as it is possible in order to bring lasting peace nearer." Uncertainty remained about whether the agreement had changed. The agreement that was supposed to be signed by last week did not include any explicit guarantees of security for Ukraine, but it gave the U.S. a way to access revenues from Ukraine's mineral resources. The deal also included the Ukrainian government donating 50% of future monetization from any state-owned resources to a U.S.Ukraine-managed reconstruction investment fund. Trump said in a press conference that Ukraine should be "more appreciative" of the agreement. Trump said, "This country has stood by them through thick-and-thin." "We have given them more than Europe and Europe should give more than us," Trump said. France, Britain, and perhaps other European countries offered to send peacekeeping forces to Ukraine in case of a ceasefire. However they would need support from the U.S. Moscow has rejected the proposal for peacekeeping forces. Daniel Fried, former senior White House official, and ambassador to Poland said that the process of getting the minerals agreement done was messy. But it would bring two solid victories for Trump: Zelenskiy’s statement of regret, and the agreement by Britain and France to provide boots on the ground and security. "Trump should and can win. Fried, a fellow with the Atlantic Council, said that Fried would be able "to say that he... got the Europeans standing up for an issue of European Security, which they have never done before." (Reporting from Erin Banco, Gram Slattery, and Andrea Shalal at Washington; Additional reporting from Yuliia Dyesa in Kyiv. Editing by Don Durfee & David Gregorio).
Early indications of Trump tariffs include key US sour crude grades
Dealers said that spot prices for an important U.S. sour grade crude oil surged by about 60% on February 2, a sign early indication that President Donald Trump’s tariffs against Canada and Mexico are beginning to disrupt the global oil trade. Trump's tariffs of 10% on Canadian oil imports and 25% on Mexican imports took effect on Tuesday night. The combined oil exports from the two countries represent about one quarter of the crude oil that U.S. refiners use. This move will force buyers to look for alternative cargoes or pay more money for their usual supplies.
Brokers said that Mars Sour, an American medium sour oil produced in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico region, traded intraday for a premium of $3.60 to U.S. Crude Futures. This was compared to a premium of $2.25 on Monday.
Later in the session, the grade eased to a $2.75 premium per barrel.
A trader stated that Mars is a more attractive alternative than grades like Isthmus (a sour crude from Mexico), which has led to its price increase. The density and sulfur content of crude grades determines their properties and uses. Some refineries are better suited to accept certain grades due to their complex infrastructure. This makes matching alternative options a key part of the equation for trading crude. Prior to the tariffs, Canada's grades were under pressure. On Monday, the discount between U.S. crude oil futures and Western Canada Select heavy crude widened to $13.60 per barrel.
One trader in Latin America said that dealers were "pray[ing] for another pause" in the tariff implementation. He added that prices were largely stable, as most of the cargoes for Latin America's top grades for delivery April were sold out.
Trump's administration ordered on Tuesday that Chevron be denied a license to export and operate oil in Venezuela. This is expected to further reduce the amount of heavy grades available to U.S. refiners. Rory Johnston is a Toronto-based energy expert and the founder of Commodity Context's newsletter. He said that the real tariffs effect has been slowly creeping into the market for some time. Now the question is how long this will last and what we do next.
Another trader stated that some of the volatility Tuesday was due to panic buying, since the market had been waiting until now to see if Trump would go ahead with tariffs.
A fourth trader stated, "The shoe has dropped and traders have begun to price in tariffs." Energy Information Administration data show that the United States imported oil at a rate of nearly 6.6 millions barrels per day in December. Canada shipped 4.2 million barrels per day, and Mexico 451,000. (Reporting and editing by Nia William, Arathy McCartney Georgna McCartney Marianna Pararaga, Amanda Stephenson, Stephanie Kelly)
(source: Reuters)