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Gold reaches record highs amid Trump tariff uncertainty
Gold prices have reached a new record high due to the geopolitical uncertainty and concern over global economic growth in light of U.S. president Donald Trump's proposed tariffs. This has once again brought $3,000 as a key threshold on investors' radar. On Friday, spot gold reached a new record of $2,817.23 a troy ounce, kicking off 2025 with renewed vigor after its best annual performance since 2010. Phillip Streible is the chief market strategist for Blue Line Futures. He said that there are concerns about the economic growth being affected by the current administration's policies and tariffs. When you have higher inflation and slower growth, then stagflation is the dominant economic theme. In that environment, gold tends to perform very well. Trump reiterated his threat of imposing 25% tariffs on the imports of Mexico and Canada, which are the U.S.'s largest trading partners. The deadline for this action is Saturday. Trump's tariffs plans are perceived by many as inflationary, and have the potential to spark trade wars. This is driving up demand for safe-haven bullion because it has traditionally been seen as a hedge from price pressures and political uncertainty. Bob Haberkorn is a senior market analyst at RJO Futures. He said, "I see gold trying to reach that $2,900 mark at some point in the first quarter. After we breach that level, we'll be setting new levels." Gold could eventually trade above $3,000 at some point in this year. The US Market U.S. Gold Futures have traded at a premium over the spot price in recent months amid concerns about U.S. tariff plans on imports. As a result of these fears, 12.9 millions troy ounces (or 2.2 tons) of gold have been delivered to U.S. COMEX approved warehouses Since late November, stocks have increased by 73.5%, to 30.4 millions ounces, which is the highest level since July 2022. Deliveries came from London and Switzerland, among other major gold trading hubs. The London Bullion Market Association announced on Thursday that they were monitoring the situation, and in contact with CME Group (owner of COMEX) and U.S. Authorities. The London gold market's stocks and liquidity are strong, with an average daily trading volume of 47.1 million ounces since January 1, the association said. Gold and the US Rate Expectations The Federal Reserve's rate cutting cycle, the demand for safe havens, and central bank purchases boosted gold to multiple records last year. In its meeting in January, the Fed kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged, as was widely expected. This follows a full basis-point of easing in 2024. This is the first pause in the Fed's easing cycle since September. In an environment of low interest rates, non-yielding gold bullion is likely to flourish. In terms of central bank purchases, the People's Bank of China was a major driver of demand for gold. It continued to add bullion to reserves despite price increases over the last year - as part of what analysts believe is the PBOC's broader strategic goal to diversify its reserves. Analysts believe that the central bank of China could continue to purchase gold in order to support prices further over the next few months.
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Moldovan opposition leader forms coalition against Sandu in parliament elections
The Moldovan opposition leader, Alexandr Stoianoglo who lost the presidential vote held in November, announced on Friday that he would lead a coalition consisting of three parties against the pro-Western majority ruling at the parliament elections this year. Last year, the former prosecutor general was closer than anyone expected to unseating pro Western President Maia Sandu. She lost in a runoff after campaigning on a balanced foreign policies that looked to Russia and West. He was backed by a pro-Moscow party. The election is expected to be a close one and could result in Sandu's pro Western PAS party losing a significant number of its seats. Moldova is located between Ukraine, Romania and Russia. It's a geopolitical battlefield between Russia and the West. Sandu's Government is working to bring the country into the European Union before 2030. Stoianoglo, who announced his coalition at a press conference in Chisinau, told reporters that his top priority was the "consolidation of Moldovan society." We will not divide the people in good and bad, strangers and our voters, different nationalities. The "Alternative Coalition" will include the parties of Chisinau Mayor Ion Ceban, former Prime Minister Ion Chicu and former legislator Marc Tcaciuc. Ceban, who spoke with Stoianoglo, said that the time was now to "restore faith in the citizens of Moldova for reforms, European integration, and competent governance". Sandu's PAS and the opposition in Moldova often criticize Sandu for their lack of efficiency and disregarding the public interest. Sandu's administration claims that opponents are trying to undermine the EU bid. Ceban: "To avoid misunderstandings, we support European Integration as the main goal of the country... We must focus our attention on the needs and wants of the people." Russia has troops in Transdniestria - a region of Moldova that is controlled by pro Moscow separatists. Sandu, Chisinau's former Prime Minister, condemned the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Last year, the Moldovan government claimed that Russia interfered in both its presidential election as well as a referendum on EU membership held at the same time. The referendum was successful but narrower than expected. Moscow denies any meddling. Moscow and Chisinau clashed at the beginning of the year over the gas supply to Transdniestria. This region produces electricity for Moldova, and thousands of people were left without winter heating or gas. The Russian gas flow to Transdniestria via Ukraine ceased at the beginning of January after a transit agreement expired. Gazprom, the Russian gas exporter, has stopped its exports citing unpaid Moldovan bills, which Chisinau does not recognize. Chisinau accuses Russia for creating a fake energy crisis in order to influence parliamentary elections. Russia accuses Moldova and Ukraine. (Written by Yuliia Diasa; edited by Tom Balmforth)
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India's ONGC misses profit forecasts for Q3 as lower realisations weight
India's Oil and Natural Gas Corp. (ONGC) announced a loss for the third quarter on Friday as a buoyant fuel market failed to compensate the explorer against lower crude oil realisations. The profit of the state-owned company fell by 17% in October-December to 82.40 trillion rupees, or $952 million. This was far below the analysts' average estimate of 179.31 trillion rupees. Profits from joint ventures or operations outside of the country are not included in its standalone earnings. ONGC is responsible for around 71% domestic crude oil production. The company's operating revenue fell by 3% year-on-year, to 337.17 bn rupees. Its crude oil price realization, or the price it charges for the product in the third quarter, was down nearly 11%, to $72.57 a barrel. A poll revealed that oil will likely trade at around $70 a bar in 2025 as the weak demand for crude from China, and increasing global supplies, offset OPEC+'s efforts to stabilize the market. Oil prices are not expected to rise much, which is bad news for explorers such as ONGC or Oil India, who will report their quarterly earnings next week. The quarterly topline was still above expectations, thanks to the strong demand for fossil fuels in Asia's largest economy. Fuel consumption in India increased during the third quarter, mainly due to an increase in manufacturing and industrial activity. Reporting by Manvi Pan and Hritam Mukerjee from Bengaluru, editing by Shailesh Kumar
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CNN reports that Trump's Grenell is expected to meet Venezuelan Maduro this Friday.
CNN, citing an insider familiar with the situation, reported that Richard Grenell, the envoy of U.S. president Donald Trump, is scheduled to meet Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro in Venezuela on Friday. Could not verify immediately the meeting. Trump said that his administration will likely stop purchasing oil from Venezuela, and is looking at Venezuela "very closely" Grenell, Trump’s special mission envoy, said earlier that he had spoken with several officials in Venezuela, and would start meetings days after the Biden administration, which is leaving office, imposed new sanctions against the government of Maduro. Grenell, in a posting on X, revealed his first calls. "Diplomacy is now back," Grenell stated. "Talking is tactic." During his election campaign, Trump referred to Maduro as a dictator. He had pursued an "maximum-pressure" campaign against him from his first term in 2017-2021, which included imposing harsh sanctions on South America and its oil sector. Joe Biden, the former president of the United States, temporarily lifted some restrictions from the Trump era following Maduro's electoral promises. He then restored them after claiming that Maduro had broken his promise to hold a democratic election. The Financial Times reported on Friday that Chevron was trying to protect its special U.S. operating license in Venezuela. Mike Wirth told the newspaper that the oil giant would be in contact with the White House following Marco Rubio's statement as Trump's Secretary of State. Rubio said the license needed to be reconsidered. Wirth stated that if Chevron was forced to leave, China and Russia would gain influence in OPEC nations. Venezuelan oil exports to America soared by 64% last year to 222,000 barrels per day, making the U.S. its second largest export market after China. China took 351,000 barrels per day, down 18% from the previous year. (Reporting and editing by David Ljunggren, Alistair Bell and Susan Heavey)
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Trudeau warns that tough times are coming, and says Canada will respond to tariffs
Justin Trudeau, the Prime Minister, warned Canadians on Friday that they may be in for a tough time if the United States follows through with its threat to impose tariffs. The President of the United States, Donald Trump The deadline for imposing a 25% surcharge is Saturday. Tarif Imports from Canada Mexico . He wants to see stronger actions taken to stop the illegal flow You can also find out more about the immigrants in this article. The deadly opioid fentanyl is now being imported into the United States. Trudeau said that the country is at a crucial moment when he addressed an advisory council for Canada-U.S. Relations. "We are ready to respond - with a forceful, but reasonable and immediate response." "It's not the outcome we wanted, but we will act if he goes forward," he said on televised remarks. He added that all options are available. Trump's tariffs would have a devastating impact on the Canadian economy, as 75% of its exports are goods and services. Trudeau stated, "I will not sugarcoat the fact that our country could face difficult times in days and weeks to come." Trudeau stated, "I understand Canadians may be anxious or worried, but I would like them to know that the federal government and all other orders of government have their backs." Reporting by David Ljunggren, Editing by PromitMukherjee and Mark Porter
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Apple's rise in the stock market is a positive sign, but tariffs are also a focus.
The global stock market rose on Friday, ending a volatile trading week. Apple's quarterly earnings report and a similar U.S. inflation rate boosted sentiment. As the deadline for a decision on Saturday drew near, currency traders braced themselves to see if U.S. president Donald Trump would impose 25% tariffs on Canada or Mexico. This could cause a disruption of nearly $1.6 trillion worth of annual trade. The U.S. S&P 500 index rose 0.42% early in trading, and was expected to finish the week with a broadly flat result. Meanwhile, the tech-heavy Nasdaq index increased 0.77%. However it was still on course to end the weekend 0.5% lower. The Nasdaq fell 2.9% on Sunday as the surge in popularity of DeepSeek, a cheap Chinese AI model, shook investor's confidence in U.S. technology stocks and sent Nvidia plummeting 17%. The recent earnings reports and forecasts from Meta and Tesla, among others, have helped to improve sentiment. Apple's forecast of relatively strong sales growth late Thursday pushed its stock up by 4.2% early Friday trading. The Stoxx 600 Europe index rose 0.25% last week, while tech shares gained 1.4%. Options contracts on currency markets showed that investors were prepared for potential swings in the Canadian Dollar and Mexican Peso. The Canadian dollar fell by around 0.2% yesterday, but the Mexican peso rose slightly. Trump has set Saturday as the deadline for imposing punitive duties in response to his demands that Canada, Mexico and other countries take stronger actions to stop the flow of illegal immigration and deadly opioids fentanyl or precursor chemicals to the U.S. Michael Nizard is the multi-asset Chief Investment Officer at Edmond de Rothschild. The U.S. Dollar Index was up by 0.26% for the day, closing at 108.38. It was also on track to gain 0.85% on a weekly basis. Both the euro and sterling fell by around 0.2%. The data released on Friday shows that the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index rose by 0.3% in December, after a 0.1% increase in November. This is in line with expectations. These figures also show that consumer spending has surged, temporarily pushing up the 10-year Treasury yields which were at last flat at 4.512 percent. Investors are buying tech stocks after they fell on Monday, and yields, which move in the opposite direction of prices, will fall by more than 10 basis point this week. The data released on Thursday indicated that the U.S. economy slowed down in the fourth-quarter, but was still robust enough to allow investors to expect that the Federal Reserve will only lower borrowing costs gradually this year. German bond yields dropped for a second consecutive day due to weaker-than-expected inflation data. The European Central Bank lowered rates on Thursday, and hinted at more easing to come. Brent crude oil futures remained steady at $76.80 a barrel. Harry Robertson is the reporter. Iain Withers, Ankur Banerjee and Iain Withers contributed additional reporting. Mark Potter (Editing)
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Wright, Trump's energy nominee, will speak at a conservative event in London on April 16, says a group.
The organization announced on Thursday that Chris Wright, Donald Trump's nominee to lead the U.S. Energy Department will be speaking to a conservative think-tank in London, next month. Wright has advocated expanding fracking operations in previous meetings. Wright, who will be confirmed by Senate on Friday, according to a spokesperson for the department, will not attend in person the Alliance for Responsible Citizenship Conference. It wasn't immediately clear if he would be addressing the conference from Feb. 17-19 virtually. Wright, CEO of the oilfield services firm Liberty Energy, spoke last at an ARC in 2023, when he said that fracking should be allowed to take place in England. The drilling method is currently banned due to environmental concerns. Wright then said: "The case for transformation in the United Kingdom is compelling," Wright said. Wright is convinced that climate change exists, but is only a distant danger. During his confirmation, Wright stood by his comments that the concern over wildfires was hyped up to promote government policies to combat climate change. The speakers are expected to address topics such as "the role the family plays in maintaining social cohesion", free enterprise and good government, energy, natural resources, and the environment. ARC stated that other speakers scheduled to speak included U.S. Republican legislators and Bjorn Lombborg, who accepts that climate change can be damaging but questions arguments that fighting it is worth the cost. (Reporting and editing by Lisa Shumaker; Timothy Gardner)
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Ireland must increase electricity investment following storm damage, says PM
The Prime Minister Micheal Mart said that Ireland needs to invest heavily in its electrical grid so it can prepare for future weather conditions. After Storm Eowyn, 74,000 homes and businesses were still without electricity a week later. ESB Networks has restored electricity to 694,000 homes, businesses and other buildings with the assistance of crews from Europe. However, some customers in remote areas will still be without power until February 6. The newly re-elected government pledged to invest heavily in infrastructure. This was partly done with the help of an Apple tax windfall amounting to 14 billion euros ($14.52billion). Martin, speaking to reporters on Friday, said: "I've already requested that work be done to speed up investment in (the electricity) grid to future-proof it and make it stronger." Martin stated that "there will be a real need for substantial investment in the electricity grid going forward because the number and severity storms are increasing over the past 10 years." Climate change has a major impact on our country. ($1 = 0.9643 euro) (Reporting and editing by Padraic HALpin)
Exxon exceeds Q4 expectations with higher Permian and Guyana output
Exxon Mobil beat Wall Street's fourth-quarter profit estimate on Friday as higher oil and natural gas production more than offset lower oil prices. Refining margins were also weaker. LSEG data revealed that its adjusted profit was $7.39billion or $1.67 per shares, exceeding analyst expectations of $1.56. Exxon has benefited from its low production costs and lucrative projects in Guyana, despite the lower oil prices. After closing its purchase of Pioneer Natural Resources, in May, the company became the largest U.S. oilfield in 2024 and the largest oil producer within the Permian Basin.
The number one oil producer in the United States reported earnings of $33,46 billion for 2024, down from $38.57 billion a year earlier. The No. 1 U.S. Oil producer reported earnings of 33,46 billion dollars for 2024 - down from 38,57 billion dollars the previous year. Exxon's shares remained unchanged before Friday's bell. The company's adjusted fourth-quarter earnings from oil production and gas were $6.28billion, up from $4.15billion in the same quarter of last year. The production reached 4.6 millions barrels of oil-equivalent per day. This is up from 4.58 billion barrels in the third quarter.
The United States increased its production of crude oil, natural gas liquids and lubricants by almost 2% compared to the previous quarter. This equates to 1,47 million barrels a day. The earnings from gasoline and diesel production fell by a significant amount, from $3.2 billion to $323 million. Even though demand for gasoline and Diesel was below expectations, the startup of new oil refining facilities by other companies in Asia or Africa resulted in a higher global fuel supply. Kathryn Mikells, chief financial officer of the company, said that the refining industry is still under pressure due to the increased supply.
She said, "We're really watching that as we look forward to 2025."
Biraj Borkhataria said that Exxon’s results showed mixed results across the board, despite lower corporate costs. He made this comment in a Friday research note.
Chevron, second largest U.S. oil firm, announced on Friday that it had acquired the aforementioned company.
Refining losses were reported by the company
For the first quarter since 2020, Exxon missed Wall Street's estimates for earnings. Exxon reported impairments in its business totaled $608 million for the fourth quarter. Mikells explained that the charges are a result of selling assets including a Nigerian joint venture.
She said that the company is still expecting a decision in September on its arbitration challenge against Chevron's purchase of oil producer Hess. Chevron would be able to gain a foothold on Guyana's oil project if it proceeds. Exxon, CNOOC and Hess have the first contractual right to purchase Hess stake, even though the deal was approved by U.S. regulatory authorities.
In 2024, shareholder returns through buybacks and distributions will total $36 billion. This is up from the previous $32 billion. Exxon’s $36.2 billion in free cash flow covered the shareholder distributions. This is a key part of Big Oil’s strategy to attract investors. The company intends to buy back $20 billion worth of shares each year until 2026.
The earnings from the production of chemical products increased from $189 to $215 million. Exxon reported earnings of $759 million from specialty products, up from $650 in the previous quarter. Sheila Dang reported from Houston, and Simon Webb, Michael Perry Jason Neely, Nick Zieminski edited the story.
(source: Reuters)