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China iron ore imports head for record even as steel output slips: Russell

China is on track to import record volumes of iron ore in October, increasing the divergence between the demand for the steel raw material and the still weak output of the finished product.

China, which purchases nearly three-quarters of international seaborne iron ore, is likely to import as much as 120 million metric lots this month, according to vessel-tracking and port data.

This would be a strong increase from the main customs number of 104.1 million loads in September, and also represent an all-time high, eclipsing the previous record of 112.7 million in July 2020.

The strength in iron ore imports stands in sharp contrast to the softness in steel production, which slid for a 4th consecutive month in September, dropping to 77.07 million loads, down 1.1% from August and 6.1% from the same month in 2023.

China's steel output for the very first nine months of the year was 768.48 million heaps, down 3.6% from the same period in 2023, according to information launched by the National Bureau of Stats last week.

If there is a positive from the September steel production information, it's that the pace of decline slowed from the 10.4%. on-year drop in August.

Whether the drop in steel output can be lifted to show an. boost in the next few months largely depends upon whether steel. mills see rising need on the back of Beijing's stimulus. efforts.

September was prematurely for any kick higher in steel need,. offered the major stimulus announcements were right before month. end.

However, if the procedures to enhance the ailing residential or commercial property sector. do flourish, it's likely to only result in a boost in. real need in 2025.

This makes the rush to purchase more iron ore appear rather. premature.

COST DRIVEN IMPORTS

October's imports are on track to reach 120.5 million heaps,. according to data put together by commodity experts Kpler, while. LSEG analysts expect arrivals of 117.3 million lots.

It's most likely that steel mills and traders took heart from the. stimulus efforts announced by Beijing, however lower spot rates for. iron ore may also have boosted buying.

The rate of Singapore Exchange agreements dropped. to the lowest in 22 months in September, hitting $91.10 a ton on. Sept. 10.

They then traded in a narrow variety around that level until. the end of the month, meaning that much of the iron ore showing up. in October would have been protected at reasonably low prices.

Iron ore prices did rise in the wake of the stimulus. announcements, reaching a three-month peak of $110.55 a ton on. Oct. 7, before alleviating back to end at $104.21 on Monday.

A more sober reflection of when China's stimulus is most likely. to really result in increased steel demand may have led to. iron ore costs moderating, however it deserves noting they have. still kept the majority of the gains made considering that the October low.

The danger is that the strong import volumes wind up being. added to stocks, which could function as a drag on additional price. gains even if steel output does start to recover.

Port inventories kept track of by experts SteelHome. << SH-TOT-IRONINV > increased in the week to Oct. 18, hitting 147.2. million loads, up from a five-month low of 145.8 million the. prior week.

Stockpiles have actually increased strongly in the previous 12 months, rising. from a seven-year low of 104.89 million lots in the last week of. October 2023 to a current high of 151.8 million in late July.

The opinions revealed here are those of the author, a. writer .

(source: Reuters)