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Asia shares slip, yen firm as BOJ ponders positive rates

Asian share markets sputtered on Monday while the dollar looked vulnerable ahead of a reading on U.S. inflation that could quicken, or delay, the start of global rate cuts.

The yen edged higher as reported a growing number of Bank of Japan policymakers are warming to the idea of ending negative rates this month on expectations of hefty pay walkings in this year's yearly wage settlements.

Data launched on Monday revealed Japan was not, in truth, in economic downturn after economic growth was modified approximately an annualised 0.4% for the December quarter.

Tuesday's U.S. consumer rate index (CPI) report for February is forecast to rise 0.4% for the month and keep the yearly pace steady at 3.1%. Core inflation is seen increasing 0.3%,. which will nudge the annual pace down to the most affordable considering that early. 2021 at 3.7%.

The slower core would complement the softer conditions seen. in the February payrolls report, where joblessness struck a. two-year high of 3.9%, and would keep the Federal Reserve on. track to cut rates in the next few months.

We continue to anticipate four 25bp cuts in the Fed funds rate. this year, starting in June, analysts at Goldman Sachs composed in. a note. However, the soft employment report increases the chances. that the FOMC starts the easing cycle in May instead.

We expect that industrialized market central banks will lower. policy rates by 128bp typically over the next 12 months, they. included. We likewise expect that emerging market central banks will. cut rates by 190bp on average.

Futures imply about a 30% possibility of a Fed cut in May. and 70% for a very first move in June.

Chinese rate information out over the weekend showed a welcome. bounce in inflation to 0.7% in February, though manufacturer prices. remained stuck in deflation.

Beijing also guaranteed to improve home sales in a powerful. and organized way to support the country's beleaguered. home market, however was short on information.

Expects lower borrowing costs have been a fillip for. equities with MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares. outside Japan reducing 0.1%, after hitting an. eight-month peak on Friday.

Japan's Nikkei pulled back 2.3%, having actually scored a. succession of all-time highs recently. Chinese blue chips. added 0.2%, but without much conviction.

BOJ TURNING POSITIVE

S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures were a. fraction lower, having both face revenue handling Friday as. expert system queen Nvidia shed 5.6%.

EUROSTOXX 50 futures fell 0.4%, and FTSE futures. dipped 0.2%.

Treasury bonds continued their rally after the benign jobs. report with 10-year yields touching a one-month low. of 4.038% and last trading at 4.060%.

The drop in yields has undermined the dollar, particularly. against the yen offered market speculation that the BOJ will end. its negative rate policy (NIRP) and yield curve control (YCC). this month.

We anticipate JPY strength tactically on short-covering in the. accumulation to the March 18/19th BoJ meeting, one we think is live. for a modification in YCC and NIRP, and current higher inflation. readings only add to our conviction to be tactically long JPY,. stated Paul Robson, head of G10 FX technique at NatWest Markets.

We've turned tactically bearish the USD and initiated brief. positions vs both EUR and JPY, he added. Our short-term fair. value design recommends EUR/USD is too low based upon bond spreads. and relative curve steepness.

The dollar was off at 146.82 yen, having shed 2%. last week to a five-week low of 146.48.

The euro was holding firm at $1.0939, after. bouncing 0.9% last week to as high as $1.0980.

The decline in the dollar and bond yields has actually been. encouraging of non-yielding gold which was up at $2,180 an ounce. , having surged 4.5% recently to record peaks.

Oil prices have actually had a harder time as worries about China's. need balanced out supply cuts by manufacturer group OPEC+.

Brent dipped 54 cents to $81.54 a barrel, while U.S. crude lost 57 cents to $77.44 per barrel.

(source: Reuters)