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The strategic oil reserves will support the crude demand until 2028

Analysts and officials have said that governments are planning to purchase millions of barrels by 2028 in order to replenish 'emergency reserves' depleted due to drawdowns. This is to fill a void?in the global supply caused by a U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran. They say that this could increase demand for crude oil, which would absorb a portion of the global surplus expected after OPEC+ decided to increase production. The government has reduced emergency reserves following supply disruptions related to the conflict that have removed estimated 1.5 billion barrels of global inventories in this year. Calculations based on International Energy Agency (IEA), OPEC, and U.S. Department of Energy's data.

After disruptions in Strait of Hormuz pushed crude prices dramatically higher, the IEA coordinated a 400-million barrel release. Brent crude reached $126 per barrel by?late April, and U.S. Crude approached $120 at the beginning of March. According to the commodities analysis firm?Kpler, replenishing these reserves could result in 664,000 barrels of daily demand by the third quarter of 2027. This would help absorb some of next year's excess supply as OPEC+ unwinds production cuts. This would reduce price drops.

Christopher Haines is the head of oil for Energy Aspects.

Michelle Brouhard of Kpler, the head of policy and geopolitical risks, stated that refueling reserves would generate 506,000 bpd more crude demand by 2026's fourth quarter, with further growth next year.

US TO START FILLING FIRST The United States has promised to release 172 millions barrels through the IEA program. It is expected that it will begin receiving oil later this year under exchange agreements which require companies to return loaned barrels and additional barrels in addition to a premium. US has signed contracts to lend 133 million barrels out of the 172 millions so far. The Department of Energy reported on Monday that U.S. Strategic Reserves fell by 6.2 millions barrels, to 319.5 Million in the week ending July 3. This is the lowest level since April 1983.

Chris Wright, the U.S. Energy secretary, said at an event held by Next in late June that the government expected to receive on average 1.28 barrels per barrel released as part of exchange agreements. Wright stated that the returns would be able to boost SPR inventories above 400 million barrels. Washington is also exploring ways to increase stocks beyond 500 millions barrels.

Former U.S. Energy Information Administration Administrator Jay Hakes said that the United States could replenish its reserves faster than other countries, because exchange agreements allowed stocks to return back to pre-war level without additional government expenditure.

Naveen Das is a senior oil analyst at Kpler. He said that for other IEA member countries, the outlook is more flexible and based on 2027.

Analysts predict that countries such as Japan and South Korea will replenish their reserves gradually. However, the efforts to do so may depend on the oil price and government spending decisions.

ASIA EXPANDS ITS STOCKPILING

Analysts said that lower oil prices may encourage China to stockpile more oil, creating a new source of demand alongside the restocking of reserves by IEA nations.

Michael Haigh is the global head of commodities at Societe Generale. He said that historically, when Brent crude prices fall below the 12-month moving-average, China begins to?buy and fill SPR.

Brent front-month contracts were trading at around $78 a bar on Thursday. This was slightly higher than their 12-month moving median of $76.59 a bar, according to LSEG 'data.

In response to the Middle East energy crisis, several Asian countries -- who rely on Gulf supplies -- are increasing?storage capacities. China is building eleven new strategic oil storage facilities, and India plans to expand the strategic petroleum reserves capacity at Chandikhol and Padur. Japan is helping the Philippines develop a national system of strategic petroleum reserves.

(source: Reuters)