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Stocks rise, US yields fall on increased Fed cut expectations

The global stock market rose on Tuesday, and was on track for a third consecutive session of gains. Investors remained confident that the U.S. Federal Reserve will cut interest rates during its December meeting. Meanwhile, U.S. Treasury Yields fell. Alphabet and Meta Platforms led the gains on Wall Street. Google's parent company hit an intraday high of $328.83, and was up over 1% last as it approached $4 trillion market capitalization. This would make it the only fourth company to achieve this mark. The Information reported on Meta Platforms, which rose 3% and was the largest boost to the S&P 500. Meta Platforms is in negotiations with Google about spending billions of dollars to buy chips from Alphabet's company for use in Google data centers beginning in 2027.

Investors also parsed an avalanche of economic data. Some of it was delayed because of the 43-day U.S. shutdown.

The Commerce Department reported that retail sales in September rose by 0.2% after an unrevised gain of 0.6% in August. This was below the 0.4% increase expected by the economists polled. Separately, the Labor Department reported that the Producer Price Index (PPI) for final demand rose 0.3%, after a 0.1% unrevised drop in August. This was expected, because energy prices increased and producers passed some tariffs on. ADP released more recent data Tuesday, indicating that private employers in the United States lost an average of 13500 jobs over the four-week period ending November 8.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 546.82, or 1.12%, to 46.995.09; the S&P 500 gained 45.45, or 0.68 %, to 6.750.53; and the Nasdaq Composite advanced 80.42, or 0.35 %, to 22952.43. Since Friday, the market has been anticipating a rate reduction after New York Fed president John Williams stated that interest rates could fall in the short term. Other policymakers have insisted on borrowing costs remaining unchanged for now. These expectations were further boosted on Monday by comments made by San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank president Mary Daly and Fed governor Christopher Waller, who both supported a December rate cut.

Bill Merz is the head of capital markets research at U.S. Bank Wealth Management, Minneapolis.

"We have data this morning with slightly softer employment markets. That should be a major consideration for Fed voting member, and I believe it is." These slightly softened labor markets confirm that this wasn't a one-off blip.

The trading volume will likely decrease towards Thanksgiving in the United States on Thursday. Markets will be closed and Friday's session will be abbreviated. The MSCI index of global stocks rose 7.72 points or 0.79% to 990.03, and is now on course for its largest three-day percentage increase in a month. The pan-European STOXX 600 closed up 0.91% on the back of the prospect of Fed rate cuts and optimism about a possible ceasefire in Ukraine. U.S. yields fell after the data glut, with the yield of the benchmark 10-year U.S. notes falling 3.8 basis points to 3.998% and dropping below the 4% level for the first since October 29.

The markets are pricing an 84.7% probability of a Fed 25 basis point cut at its meeting in December, which is up from 84.4% the previous session and above the 50.1% a week earlier. In a television interview, Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran stated that the central bank's short-term rate target is to blame for a declining job market. The dollar index, which measures greenbacks against a basket currencies, dropped 0.48% at 99.72. Meanwhile, the euro rose 0.49% to $1.1577. The pound strengthened by 0.77%, to $1.3204, ahead of Britain's budget announcement scheduled for Wednesday. Traders also rushed into the options markets in order to protect themselves from increased volatility. The yen strengthened by 0.64% to 155.93 dollars per yen but has fallen 1.3% in the last month. Traders are closely monitoring for any signs of Japanese intervention. U.S. crude dropped 1.61% to $57.89 per barrel and Brent fell to $62.40 a barrel, down 1.53 % after Ukraine indicated support for an American-backed framework to end the war with Russia.

(source: Reuters)