Latest News

OPEC+ is seen as maintaining oil production unchanged and focusing on the capacity debate

Three OPEC+ source said that OPEC+ will likely leave the output levels unchanged during its meeting on Sunday, but focus on a hypothetical topic about how much oil each member can produce to decide on future policies.

OPEC+ includes the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, such as Russia. It pumps around half of the world's crude oil. For years, OPEC+ has discussed production capacity figures – or baselines – against which member's output targets are determined.

OPEC+ said that ministers will discuss on Sunday a method to determine the maximum production capacity of countries, which can be used to establish baselines for output in 2027. OPEC+ had a technical discussion on the subject in September.

According to the International Energy Agency, the group has had difficulty finding a compromise for some members, such as Nigeria. Nigeria wants higher production quotas, but only has limited capacity.

The United Arab Emirates, on the other hand still have a lot of spare capacity. This is after they secured a slight increase in their share of OPEC+ production this year. Angola left the group in 2024 due to a disagreement over its production target.

One OPEC+-source said that any changes to the quota on Sunday will need to be approved in full by the group.

OPEC+ reduced its output for a number of years, until eight members started to increase production in April to regain market share. The reductions peaked in march, totaling 5.85 million barrels a day, or almost 6% of the world's production.

Eight members raised their output targets from April to December by about 2.9 million bpd. At their last November meeting, they paused the increases for the first three months amid predictions of an looming surplus.

The three sources stated that OPEC+ will not make any changes on Sunday to the first-quarter production policy or to the group-wide output levels for 2026, which were agreed upon at its May meeting. Reporting by Alex Lawler, Ahmad Ghaddar and Tomasz Janowski. Editing by Dmitry Zhdannikov & Tomasz Janowski.

(source: Reuters)