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Stocks rise, safe-havens fall on optimism about trade deals

Investors were encouraged by signs that trade tensions have cooled between the U.S. and China. This marked a positive start to a busy week of central bank meetings, megacap earnings, and other events.

On Sunday, top Chinese and U.S. economists hammered out the framework for a trade agreement that U.S. president Donald Trump and his Chinese equivalent Xi Jinping will decide on this week during a meeting in South Korea.

Investors are less concerned about the possibility of a break in a trade truce that has been established between the two world's largest economies if a deal is reached to halt higher U.S. import tariffs and Chinese export controls on rare earths.

This sent Asian stocks soaring, with South Korea, Taiwan, and Japan indexes reaching record highs. In Europe, the positive mood was also felt, with shares rising modestly on a global basis, and the STOXX600 index up around 0.1%.

US STOCK FUTURES - JUMP

Investors will be looking for confirmation that the current trade truce is still in place and that China’s reform and stimulus signals are translating into a tangible growth momentum, said Charu Chanana. Chief investment strategist at Saxo.

Futures for U.S. stocks jumped. Nasdaq futures rose 1%, while those for S&P 500 futures increased by 0.7%.

George Boubouras said that the U.S. and China momentum was satisfactory in recent days. Over the past few weeks, the market has watched global tariff negotiations with the understanding that some of the commentary could be theatre and noise.

The Chinese yuan rose to its highest level in over a month against the dollar of 7,1091.

The People's Bank of China announced the official midpoint dollar rate before the market opened at 7.0881, its highest since October 15, 2024. This was above the estimate of 7.1146.

Derek Halpenny, MUFG's head of research, said that the yuan could see further gains if a deal was made based on the details reported today.

He said that investors would be more inclined to look at non-dollar currencies as they have better prospects.

Gold, a safe-haven, fell by 1.3%, to $4,058 per ounce. U.S. Treasurys also slipped, resulting in a rise of 3.1 basis points for the benchmark 10-year yield, which is now at 4,027%. Commodities such as soybeans, corn, and wheat rose due to trade deals.

CENTRAL BANK RESULTS ARE AWAIT

This week, investors will be focused on the central bank meetings taking place in Japan, Canada and Europe.

Federal Reserve rates are expected to be cut by 25 basis points, after September data showed that U.S. consumer price increases were slightly lower than expected. However, the impact of the government shutdown on data is still a concern.

The dollar was slightly up at 152.87yen. It hovered near its two-week high. The euro remained flat at $1.1627. The dollar index was unchanged at 98.92.

Both the European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of Japan (BoJ) are expected to keep rates unchanged this week.

As concerns about a recession caused by tariffs ease, the BOJ will likely debate whether it is time to resume rate increases. However, political complications could keep this on hold.

Focus on Megacap Earnings

This week, the U.S. earnings reporting season will be at its busiest. Megacaps like Microsoft, Apple and Alphabet, as well as Amazon and Meta Platforms, are all expected to release results.

The profit margin of the "Magnificent 7" companies is shrinking. Their huge market capitalisation means that their shares dominate equity indices.

Stock market performance has been driven by the enthusiasm of a number of megacap companies in the artificial-intelligence industry.

(source: Reuters)