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European stocks fall after Trump's visa crackdown and rate outlook is in focus

The euro markets fell on Monday as automakers warned of their profit. Meanwhile, the dollar remained steady, as the markets waited to determine if geopolitical worries would offset the optimism about the Federal Reserve's loosening monetary policy.

The STOXX 600 index for Europe was little changed. Spanish and German stocks were down by 0.6% and 0.50%, respectively.

Both Porsche and its parent Volkswagen cut their profit estimates after announcing a delay in the launch of EVs due to low demand.

The MSCI world stock index was little changed, while India's benchmark fell 0.2%, after the Trump Administration announced that it would charge companies $100,000 to obtain new H-1B visas. This is a blow for the tech sector, which relies heavily on skilled workers in India and China.

Stocks in China were choppy, even though U.S. president Donald Trump claimed that he and Chinese president Xi Jinping made progress on a TikTok deal.

The Shanghai Composite index.SSEC rose by 0.2%, while the blue-chip CSI300 index rose by 0.5%.

India's $283-billion information technology sector will feel the pain soon. More than half of its revenue comes from the U.S.

Trump doubled tariffs last month on Indian imports to 50%, in part due to New Delhi's purchase of Russian oil.

It's a threat to operating costs and margins. Kyle Rodda is a senior financial analyst with Capital.com. He said that it was possible to increase wages and labour costs.

If they are unable to find enough workers within the U.S., tech companies could also face punitive measures.

FED POLICY A OUTLOOK

Investors are still keen to assess the U.S. policy direction after the Fed announced a future phase of gradual easing. The traders have priced in 44 basis point easing for the last two policy meetings.

The week will see a number of policymakers speak, including John Williams and Thomas Barkin on Monday and Raphael Bostic, Michelle Bowman and Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Tuesday.

James Rossiter is the head of global macro-strategy at TD Securities. He hopes that these remarks over the next couple days will help shape market expectations.

The Fed will release data on its preferred inflation gauge on Friday, which will help to set the tone of the rate outlook for the near term.

Tony Sycamore is a market analyst for IG. He believes that the PCE core price index will rise 0.2% monthly, keeping the annual rate at 2.9%. This is the same as it was in July and higher than the 2.6% low reached in April.

Sycamore stated that the U.S. Dollar short trade is crowded, even though a more modest rate-cutting would theoretically weigh on the U.S. Dollar. The dollar index, he added, has been losing its downward momentum after a tumultuous start.

The dollar index (which measures the U.S. money against six other currencies) was down by 0.2% to 97.54.

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures are both down by 0.2%.

The Japanese yen has remained steady at 147.87 U.S. dollars after strengthening on Friday, following the Bank of Japan hawkish stance where two members of its board voted against maintaining interest rates.

Brent crude futures were 34 cents higher, at $67.02 per barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Futures rose 36 cents, to $63.04.

The gold price rose, reaching a record high at $3,719.65 an ounce at one time. (Reporting and editing by Nell Mackenzie, Ankur Banerjee and Shri Navaratnam. Editing and proofreading by Jacqueline Wong, Bernadette Baum and Jacqueline Wong)

(source: Reuters)