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After a village is destroyed by ice, floods threaten the Swiss valley
The water trapped behind a glacial debris mass that buried and blocked a village in southern Switzerland this week has led to warnings of the need for further evacuations due to the threat of flooding. The village of Blatten was engulfed by a deluge of millions cubic meters of rock, mud, and ice on Wednesday. The few houses left were later inundated. The village's 300 residents were evacuated in May when part of the mountain behind Birch Glacier started to crumble. The flooding increased on Thursday, as a mound of debris measuring almost 2 km (1,2 miles) wide clogged up the River Lonza. A lake formed among the wreckage. This caused fears that the morass might dislodge, leading to more evacuations. Local authorities warned residents of Gampel and Steg - villages located several kilometres along the Lonza Valley - to be prepared for an emergency evacuation. When conditions permit, the army will be ready with heavy equipment such as water pumps, diggers, and other heavy machinery to assist. Rescue teams are searching for a man aged 64 who has been missing since the landslide. Local authorities suspended their search for the man on Thursday, citing that the debris mounds are too unstable and warned of possible rockfalls. Scientists suspect that the event is a dramatic illustration of climate change's impact in the Alps. Residents are still struggling to comprehend the extent of destruction. (Reporting and editing by Lincoln Feast; Dave Graham).
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ASIA GOLD - Indian gold demand is lagging as prices increase, and wedding purchases are cooling
The physical gold demand in India this week was tepid, due to an increase in prices at home and the end of wedding season, which kept buyers away. Premiums in China, India's top consumer, were also down. This week, Indian dealers offered a discount Last week, the discount was up to $49, but this week it is down to up to $31 per ounce, including 6% import duties and 3% sales taxes. The wedding season has ended and the monsoon is here, so jewellers expect a seasonal drop in demand. This is why people are holding off on new purchases," said Mumbai-based bullion dealers with a private banking institution. On Friday, domestic gold prices traded at around 94.900 rupees for 10 grams after reaching a low of 90.890 rupees in the first month of this month. In China, bullion traded at a premium of $15 per ounce above the global benchmark spot rate, compared to premiums between $16 and $30 last week. Ross Norman, a independent analyst, said that the Shanghai Gold Exchange has seen its drawdowns reach the lowest levels of the year, while imports were exceptionally high in the past few weeks, suggesting that the Chinese domestic market is overstocked. Data from the Hong Kong Census and Statistics Department showed that China's total imports of gold via Hong Kong almost tripled in April compared to March, reaching their highest level for more than a month. Hugo Pascal is a precious metals dealer at InProved. He said that despite the lower volume of trading, gold bullish bets are still dominant on the SHFE. In Hong Kong, gold In Singapore, the price was $0.30 to $1.30 higher. Gold traded at par prices with a premium of $2.50. In Japan, bullion The premium was $0.50. (Reporting from Anmol Choubey and Rajendra Jadhav, in Bengaluru; additional reporting from Brijesh Patel; editing by Eileen Soreng).
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Base metals decline as dollar firms, US tariff optimism fades
The dollar strengthened on Friday, and the market's optimism faded after a court decision that reinstated some of the largest tariffs imposed in the United States by President Donald Trump. As of 0521 GMT, the London Metal Exchange reported that three-month copper was down by 0.1%, at $9,562.50 a metric ton. Red metal, which is used for power and construction, continues to gain 4.8% this month and looks set to have its best month since Sept. 2024. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's (SHFE) most-traded contract for copper fell 0.3%, to 77 740 yuan per ton ($10 813). LME aluminium dropped 0.2%, to $2.445 per ton. Zinc fell 0.7%, to $2.656.50. Lead fell 0.6%, to $1.952, and nickel fell by 0.2%, to $15.335. Tin fell 1.4% to $30.790. Metals traders in Singapore reported that "the market rose yesterday on the optimism that the appeals court would be able to block Trump's tariffs. However, the rally faded as the appeals courts suspended the verdict." On Thursday, an appeals court in the United States temporarily reinstated Trump's most comprehensive tariffs. A day earlier, the U.S. Trade Court had ruled that Trump exceeded his authority by imposing these duties and ordered a blockade. Investors digested court's decision to maintain Trump's tariffs. The dollar index increased by 0.2% against rival currencies, making assets denominated in dollars more expensive for holders of other currencies. Investors are waiting for the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation indicator, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index Report due later that day. This could give them more insight into their policy direction. SHFE aluminium fell 0.2% to 20110 yuan per ton. Lead dropped 0.8% at 16,630 yuan. Nickel rose 0.9% to 128,810 yuan. Zinc lost 0.5% to 22250 yuan. Tin fell 2.6% at 251,120.
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How Trump's Trade War is Upending the Global Economy
The tariffs imposed by Donald Trump since his inauguration on January 20, 2017 have sent shockwaves through financial markets, and uncertainty has spread throughout the global economy. This timeline shows the major events: Trump imposes tariffs of 25% on Mexican imports, 10% on Chinese goods and most Canadian imports from February 1. He demands that they reduce the flow of illegal immigrants and fentanyl into the United States. Trump agrees to a 30-day suspension of his tariff threat against Mexico and Canada in exchange for concessions made on border security and criminal enforcement. The U.S. doesn't reach a similar deal with China. Trump delays tariffs until the Commerce Department confirms that systems and procedures are in place for processing low-cost packages from China and collecting tariff revenue. Trump increases tariffs on aluminum and steel to 25%, "without any exceptions or exclusions". March 3 - Trump announces that 25% tariffs will be imposed on imports from Mexico and Canada from March 4, and that all Chinese imports will face a 20% tariff on fentanyl. After a phone call with General Motors, Ford and Stellantis' chairperson and CEOs, the president agreed to defer tariffs on certain vehicles manufactured in Canada and Mexico for a month. Trump exempts Canadian and Mexican goods under the North American Trade Pact from 25% tariffs for one month. Trump announces a 25% import tariff on cars and light trucks. Trump announces global duties with a base of 10% on all imports, and much higher duties for some of the U.S. biggest trading partners. Trump suspends most of the country-specific tariffs he had imposed less than 24 hours before, following a financial market upheaval that erased trillions from global bourses. The 10% blanket duty on nearly all U.S. imported goods remains in place. Trump has announced that he will increase the tariffs on Chinese imports from 104% to 125%, which was the level in effect the day before. The extra duties on Chinese products, including those related to fentanyl, will now be 145%. April 13: The U.S. government grants exemptions from steep tariffs for smartphones, computers, and other electronics imported from China. In an effort to impose tariffs in both sectors, the Trump administration launched national security investigations under Section 232 of Trade Act of 1962 on imports of pharmaceuticals and semiconductors. May 4, Trump imposes 100% tariffs on all films produced outside of the U.S. May 9 - Trump announces a limited bilateral agreement with British Prime Minister Keir starmer that keeps 10% tariffs in place on British exports and modestly increases agricultural access to both countries. It also lowers U.S. prohibitive duties on British auto exports. On May 12, the U.S. & China agreed to temporarily reduce reciprocal tariffs. The U.S. and China agree to temporarily reduce reciprocal tariffs. May 13: The U.S. reduces the "de minimis", or low-value tariff, on China shipments. Duties for items up to $800 are reduced to 54% instead of 120%. May 23 - Trump announces he will recommend a 50% tariff on all goods imported from the European Union, starting June 1. He warned Apple that it would be subject to a 25% tariff on phones sold in the U.S. if they were not manufactured within the U.S. Trump retracts his threat to impose 50% tariffs on EU imports, and agrees to extend the deadline of talks between the U.S. May 28 - The U.S. Trade Court blocked Trump's tariffs in an sweeping ruling, saying that the president had overstepped his powers by imposing duties across-the board on imports of U.S. trading partners. The Trump administration announced that it would appeal this ruling. May 29: A federal appeals Court temporarily reinstates Trump's most sweeping tariffs. It said it was pausing lower court's decision to consider the appeal of the government, and ordered plaintiffs to respond by the 5th June, and the administration to do so by the 9th June. (Compiled in Gdansk by Paolo Laudani, Mateusz Rabiega and Jamie Freed; edited by Milla Nissi Prussak and Lincoln Feast.
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The market is looking at another OPEC+ production hike as the oil price drops for a second consecutive week
The oil price was on course for a second weekly drop on Friday. This was due to expectations of a further OPEC+ production increase in July, and new uncertainty following the latest legal twist that kept President Donald Trump's Tariffs in place. Brent crude futures fell 31 cents or 0.48% to $63.84 per barrel at 0424 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude fell 31 cents or 0.51% to $60.63 per barrel. Brent's July futures contract expires on Friday. The two contracts have both fallen by 1.5% this week. Investors priced in a further increase by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC+), a group of eight members, at their meeting on Saturday. Robert Rennie, Westpac's director of commodity and carbon analysis, said in a recent note that the stage was set for a bumper increase to production. This could be higher than the 411,000-barrels-per day decision made at the two previous meetings. JPMorgan analysts said in a report that the potential price hike is due to the fact that global surpluses have widened from 2.2 million barrels a day to 2.2 millions. This likely means a price increase to stimulate a supply response and restore equilibrium. Prices are expected to stay within the current ranges, before moving into the high 50s by year's end. The U.S. tariffs will remain in place after a federal appellate court temporarily reinstated the tariffs on Thursday. This reversed a Wednesday decision by a trade court to block the most comprehensive of the duties. As traders assessed its impact, the block sent oil prices down more than 1%. Analysts predicted that uncertainty would continue as tariff wars progressed. Since Trump's "Liberation Day", April 2, announcement of tariffs, oil prices have fallen by more than 10%. The tariff war has fueled recession fears, which have clouded demand. Washington has added to the U.S. China trade tensions by ordering a wide range of companies to cease shipping goods to China, including butane and ethane, without a licence and revoking licenses granted to certain suppliers. Analysts at JPMorgan noted that global oil demand increased from the previous weeks, mainly due to a rebound in U.S. consumption of oil, as a result of the long Memorial Day weekend and the influx of travelers. They said that the global oil demand growth is currently at a rate of approximately 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) as of May 28. This is 250,000 bpd less than expected. Colleen Liu and Siyi Howe reported from Beijing, while Sonali Paul edited the article.
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Iron ore to fall by a weekly loss due to softer China demand and trade uncertainty
The price of iron ore futures fell on Friday, and are set to lose money for the week due to a softer demand for this steelmaking ingredient. Traders brace themselves for more trade uncertainty. As of 0254 GMT, the most traded September iron ore contract at China's Dalian Commodity Exchange was trading 0.14% lower. It was 704 yuan (US$97.97) per metric ton. This week, the contract has fallen by 2.28%. The benchmark June ore price on the Singapore Exchange is 0.35% lower, at $96.55 per ton. This week it has lost 1.25%. The hot metal production, which is typically used as a gauge of iron ore demand to determine the market, has fallen for the third consecutive week. It was down by around 0.7% at 2.42 million tonnes on May 30, according to data from Mysteel. In a recent note, Galaxy Futures said that the seasonal demand for steel is at its peak and will continue to fall. Hexun Futures, a broker, says that iron ore prices remain somewhat stable as long as steel mills continue to make decent profits. The tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump in the U.S. will remain in place after a federal appellate court temporarily reinstated the tariffs on Thursday. This reverses a decision made on Wednesday by a trade court to block the most comprehensive of the duties. The weakening dollar was also a factor in the price rise, as it headed towards its fifth consecutive monthly drop on account of increased trade uncertainty. Dollar-denominated investments are more affordable for holders of currencies other than the U.S. Coking coal and coke, which are used to make steel, also fell, by 3.46% apiece. The benchmark steel prices on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were flat. Hot-rolled coil and rebar both lost 0.68% while stainless steel and wire rod gained 0.4%. The Chinese financial markets will close on Monday due to a holiday. Trading will resume Tuesday, June 3rd. The trading will resume on Tuesday, June 3.
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As the dollar strengthens, US tariff optimism wanes
The dollar strengthened on Friday, and the market's optimism waned after a court decision that reinstated some of the largest tariffs imposed in the United States by President Donald Trump. As of 0240 GMT, the London Metal Exchange reported that three-month copper was down by 0.2%, at $9,550 a metric ton. Red metal, which is used for power and construction, continues to gain 4.6% this month and looks set to have its best month since Sept. 2024. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's (SHFE) most traded copper contract fell 0.4%, to 77 680 yuan per ton ($10 807.50). LME aluminium dropped 0.4%, to $2.441 per ton. Zinc fell 0.7%, to $2.656, while lead fell by 0.4%, to $1.954, and nickel fell by 0.4%, to $15.310. Tin fell 1.1% to $30,00855. Metals traders in Singapore reported that "the market rose yesterday on the optimism that the court would be able to block Trump's tariffs. However, the rally faded as the appeals courts suspended this verdict." On Thursday, an appeals court in the United States temporarily reinstated Trump's most comprehensive tariffs. This came a day after the U.S. Trade Court ruled that Trump had overstepped his authority by imposing these duties and ordered a blockade. Investors digested court's decision to maintain Trump's tariffs. The dollar index increased by 0.2% in comparison to its rivals. This makes dollar-denominated investments more expensive for holders of other currencies. Investors are waiting for the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation indicator, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index Report due later that day. This could give them more insight into their policy direction. SHFE aluminium fell 0.4% to 20060 yuan per ton. Lead dropped 1% at 16,585 Yuan. Nickel rose 1% at 120,960 Yuan. Zinc lost 0.7% at 22,200 yuan. Tin fell 2.5% to 25,310 yuan.
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Valeura Concludes Eight-Well Drilling Campaign in Gulf of Thailand
Canada-based oil and gas company Valeura Energy has completed an eight-well drilling campaign in license B5/27 in Gulf of Thailand with Borr Drilling’s Mist jack-up drilling rig.At its 100%-operated B5/27 license, Valeura conducted drilling operations at Jasmine C, Ban Yen A, Jasmine D and Ratree developments.According to the company, the block B5/27 drilling programme was completed safely, on time, and under budget. As a result of the campaign, Valeura said it had maintained oil production rates approximately consistent with its first quarter performance, thereby offsetting the impact of natural declines.The company’s contracted drilling rig, Borr Drilling’s Mist-jack up, is now being mobilised to the Nong Yao field, where Valeura plans to drill a programme of approximately 10 development wells.“Block B5/27 is a prime example of how with ongoing drilling activity we can continue to commercialise new accumulations to maintain a stable and predictable stream of cash flow from each of our Gulf of Thailand assets.“At the same time, we have appraised several additional reservoir intervals which will form the basis of a future drilling campaign on the block. We expect to demonstrate further reserves adds at our next year-end reserves evaluation, giving rise to yet another extension in the economic life of the field,” said Sean Guest, President and CEO.Jasmine CValeura drilled two development wells from the Jasmine C platform. Both wells were successful and exceeded management’s expectation for total oil pay and are currently online as producers, the company informed.Well C-30ST1H was drilled as a horizontal lateral within the 400 sand reservoir and was completed as an oil producer. The well’s completion design includes an autonomous inflow control device, which has made it possible to complete the well as an oil producer despite being drilled into a mixed gas/oil transition zone.Well C-39 was directionally drilled to develop three separate reservoir intervals (the 330, 160, and 50 sands), and was successful with all targets. It was completed as a multi-zone producer, with the 330 interval now online.Ban Yen AThe company drilled three wells from the Ban Yen A platform. Two were primarily development wells with additional appraisal targets, and one was a dedicated appraisal well. The two development wells were successful, having exceeded expectations for total pay, and are online contributing to production.Jasmine DValeura drilled two deviated development wells from the Jasmine D platform. Both were successful and are now contributing to production.Well D-44 was drilled as a deviated development well with multiple targets. The well encountered its primary targets (the 500 and 600 series sands) as intended, successfully accessing remaining oil at the structure’s crest. In addition, the well verified upside in all of its secondary targets, covering five additional reservoir sands, which indicates the potential for further development of this fault block in the future.Well D-45 was also drilled as a deviated development well into the block’s main fault block. The well encountered oil in all three of its primary targets (the 250, 245, and 160 sands) and was completed as a multi-zone producer. In addition, the well encountered oil in its secondary 680 sand target, which will be developed by an additional well as part of a future development campaign.RatreeThe Ratree exploration well intersected its target sand reservoirs as prognosed but encountered only trace amounts of hydrocarbons. Results suggest that oil did not migrate to this particular reservoir trend, resulting in insufficient hydrocarbon charge. Further prospective trends within the B5/27 block are being evaluated for future exploration potential, Valeura noted.
Oil prices drop, causing buyers to buy more; concerns about oversupply weigh
The oil price rebounded by over 1% Tuesday, with technical rebounding and dip-buying after a previous session's drop due to OPEC+'s decision to increase output. However, concerns about the outlook for a market surplus persisted.
Brent crude futures rose by 92 cents a barrel to $61.15 at 0309 GMT. U.S. West Texas intermediate crude gained 89 cents a barrel to $58.02
The OPEC+ decision to increase oil production for a second month in a row, made over the weekend, pushed both benchmarks down to their lowest levels since February 2021.
Yeap Jun Rong is a market analyst at IG. He said that the slight rise in oil prices today appears to be more technical than fundamental. "The broader price movement is being impacted by persistent headwinds, including a pivotal change in OPEC+'s production strategy, uncertainty over demand due to U.S. Tariff risks and downgraded price forecasts."
Oil has dropped over 20% in the last six sessions, mainly due to expectations that production would exceed consumption. This is a result of increased bets placed on a global economic slowdown following U.S. president Donald Trump's shock tariffs in April.
On Tuesday, the return of Chinese participants to the market after a 5-day holiday that began on May 1 helped support prices.
"China reopened its doors today and as the world's largest oil importer, it is likely that buyers would have rushed to secure oil prices at their current low levels," said Priyanka Sackdeva, Senior Market Analyst at Phillip Nova.
Data showing an increase in orders in the U.S. - the world's largest oil consumer - also provided some support.
ISM (Institute for Supply Management) reported on Monday that its nonmanufacturing PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) rose to 51.6 from 50.8 last month. The economists polled had predicted that the services PMI would drop to 50.2.
As tariffs threaten the economy, it is likely that on Wednesday, the U.S. Federal Reserve won't change interest rates.
Barclays lowered their Brent crude forecast by $4 a barrel to $70 a barge for 2025, and set the estimate for 2026 at $62 a barge. They cited "a rocky path ahead for fundamentals", amid escalating tensions in trade and OPEC+’s shift in production strategy. Reporting by Siyi Liu and Arathy Sommesekhar, both in Houston. Editing by Muralikumar Anantharaman & Lincoln Feast.
(source: Reuters)