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India's April Diesel Exports are likely to have reached the lowest level for over a decade.
Analysts and trade sources said that India's diesel imports in April likely reached their lowest level for over a decade as Reliance, a major exporter, cut refinery output to maintain equipment at a time of robust domestic demand. India, Asia's third largest diesel exporter, exported approximately 1.15 million metric tonnes (9.69 millions barrels) of this industrial and transportation fuel during April, according to a combination of data from LSEG Kpler Vortexa, and two other trade sources. According to official data, this would be the lowest level since February 2012. It is also a substantial drop from the nearly 1-1/2-year high of 2,83 million tonnes registered in March. The official export figures for April will be released in the last weeks of May. Charles Ong, senior analyst at LSEG Oil Research, wrote that the unexpectedly low Indian oil exports for April led to limited supplies being sent to Asia and Europe. India's drop in exports has partially supported Asia's 10-ppm spot gasoil premium For most of April, the price of oil rose to its highest level for more than three months. Prices jumped from 16 cents to $90 per barrel. Reliance Industries in Jamnagar, western India, which operates the largest refinery complex in the world, closed some of its units in April for maintenance. According to two sources and LSEG, the company's exports of diesel fell to 800,000 tonnes in April. Reliance didn't immediately respond to an inquiry for comment. Data shows that Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals sold just one cargo in April. Normally, the company exports three cargoes of 65,000 to 70,000 tons per month. One refinery source said that the rest was likely sold on domestic markets. He added that the higher jet fuel margins in India encouraged refiners to produce more aviation than diesel. The discount between jet-fuel and 10ppm gasoil in April was around 80 cents per barrel, down from over $1 per barrel in March. Two sources say that exports for May are expected to increase to 2 million tonnes, due to Reliance's return to production. One of them stated that MRPL would begin maintenance on one of its crude units which will limit diesel exports.
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Data shows that the price of oil in Russia is at a two-year low and 40% below the budgeted amount.
Data showed that the price of oil in Russia in roubles had fallen to its lowest level in two years, below the 4,000-rouble mark per barrel, and was 40% less than what the federal budget planned. This increased pressure on the Kremlin which is already struggling with a growing budget deficit. Global oil prices are down over 10% for six sessions in a row, and over 20% in the past year since U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff shocks in April prompted more bets that global economic growth would slow. The oil prices also fell following the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries' (OPEC) decision to increase output. This group, led by Russia and known as OPEC+, has accelerated the production of crude oil. Calculations show that the average price for Russia's Urals and ESPO blends dropped on May 2, to $48.92 a barrel or 3,987 roubles. This is 40% less than the 6,726 roubles originally planned by the government. According to data, this is the lowest level since May 2023. The price of the Russian oil blend used to tax is still below the government's recently revised forecast at 5,281 roubles a barrel. Trump said that Vladimir Putin, the Russian president, was more inclined to peace following the recent drop in oil prices. Last week, the fall in energy prices, which accounts for one-third of the federal budget's proceeds, led the Russian government to increase the estimate of the budget deficit for 2025 to 1.7% of the gross domestic product, from 0.5%. It was a response to a reduction of 24% in the forecasted energy revenue due to expectations that oil prices would remain low for a long period. Russia has already increased its state defence spending by a quarter to 6.3% in 2025, the highest since the Cold War. The country is still fighting in Ukraine and this war is now in its 4th year. Analysts believe the government has no choice but to raise taxes, cut some social spending that is sensitive, and borrow heavily to balance budgets in the future without cutting defense spending. According to data, the average Russian oil price per barrel has been falling in recent months. It was 5,079 Roubles in March to 4,562 Roubles in April. Reporting and Editing by Andrew Osborn
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Dalian iron ore prices flatten as China's data is weakened by hopes for a Sino-US trade agreement
Dalian iron-ore futures were unchanged on Tuesday as investors weighed the hopes that trade tensions between China and the United States would ease against disappointing Chinese economic data. The daytime trading price of the most traded September iron ore contract at China's Dalian Commodity Exchange was 704.5 yuan (US$97.58). As of 0708 GMT, the benchmark June iron ore traded on Singapore Exchange was $97.45 per ton up 0.92%. The U.S. president Donald Trump announced on Sunday that the U.S. was meeting with a number of countries for trade agreements, including China. This boosted sentiment, and sent Chinese stocks higher Tuesday. China's Commerce Ministry announced on Friday that Beijing was "evaluating" Washington's offer to hold discussions over Trump's tariffs of 145%. A private sector survey revealed that China's service activity expanded at its slowest rate in seven months during April due to uncertainty caused by U.S. Tariffs. Hexun Futures, a broker, stated that the steel market is worried about overseas recession risk sparked off by tariffs. Anti-dumping measures will negatively impact future steel demand. Mysteel, a consultancy, reported that production among Chinese blast-furnace steel producers increased during the period April 25-30. Hexun stated that downstream demand will be weaker in May as domestic demand shifts to a low-season and external demand faces challenges due to the tariffs. Steelhome data revealed that the total stockpiles of iron ore across Chinese ports increased by 2.24% in a week to 136.8 millions tons on April 30. Coking coal and coke, which are both steelmaking ingredients, were down by 1.73% and 2.8% respectively. The benchmark steel prices on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were flat. Rebar fell by 0.61%; hot-rolled coils dropped by 0.19%; stainless steel rose around 0.4%, and wire rod was flat. $1 = 7.2200 Chinese Yuan (Reporting and editing by Sumana Nandy, Rashmi aich and Michele Pek)
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Ghana Joint Venture talks halted by AngloGold Ashanti and Gold Fields
AngloGold Ashanti, Gold Fields and the Ghanaian government have agreed to suspend talks on merging their two mines, Iduapriem and Tarkwa, which are adjacent. The companies announced this Tuesday, nearly two years after they first announced the plan. Ghana's government has yet to decide whether or not to approve the regulatory approval for the plan to combine two mines that would have created Africa’s largest gold mine. The companies decided to stop discussing the joint venture in order to concentrate on improving their current performance, as a standalone entity, at each of their sites. Gold Fields stated in a separate press release that, while the combination of both mines was "compelling", each miner would continue to focus on its respective operations "on an individual basis". According to the joint venture agreement, Gold Fields would own 60% of the combined operation and AngloGold 30%, respectively. The government would hold 10%. It was estimated that the joint operation would produce 900,000 to 600,000 pounds of gold annually in the first five-year period and over an estimated 18 years.
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Vestas, a manufacturer of wind turbines, has a swing in operating profit
Vestas, a manufacturer of wind turbines, reported an unexpected operating loss for the first three months, contrary to analyst predictions. Its outlook for the entire year remained unchanged, despite the geopolitical uncertainties. The Danish company posted an operating profit of 15 million euros, compared to a loss of 68 millions the previous year. Vestas surveyed analysts and the average forecast was a loss of 29 million euros. Henrik Andersen, CEO of Vestas, said that "Vestas continued to improve its performance despite new events contributing to geopolitical insecurity and regionalisation". The industry still faces many challenges. Onshore installations in Europe's key market fell short of expectations last year due to grid bottlenecks and slow permit processing. Also, more stringent financial conditions are stifling the growth. The U.S. offshore industry, which is viewed as a growth market in the country, also suffers from inflation and supply chain problems. The opposition From President Donald Trump's Administration Vestas maintains its forecast for the full-year revenues of 18-20 billion euros with a profit margin of 4-7 percent. In its earnings report, it stated that "despite ongoing geopolitical volatility and trade uncertainty is expected cause uncertainty, our execution of record-high backlog will drive increased revenue by 2025." Vestas announced a 36% increase in its first quarter order intake, which came in at 3,135 Megawatts (MW), broadly in line analysts' estimates of 3,157MW. (Reporting and editing by Terje Solsvik, Stine Jacobsen)
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Uniper details 2026, 2027 power hedging for hydro, nuclear
In a presentation to analysts on Tuesday, German utility Uniper said that it had sold a portion of its future output of hydropower as part a hedge strategy. Uniper said that it had sold 35% (of its German hydropower production) for 2026, at an average price per megawatt-hour of 92 euros ($104.12), and 5% (2027), at an average rate of 86 euros/MWh. LSEG data revealed that the wholesale benchmark price of German power round-the clock from all sources in 2025 was 83.46 euro on Monday and 77.39 euro for 2027. These discrepancies are partly due to lower fuel prices in the wholesale market, which also reflects conditions on the hydropower and gas-generated electricity markets that are subject to support schemes as well as unpredictable weather patterns. Hedging is used by producers to protect themselves against price fluctuations and lock-in forward production prices that are deemed favorable at a particular point in time. Wholesale market rates are used to monitor price trends and evaluate a utility’s physical assets. Uniper sold 85% its German production for 2025 at 126 Euros so far. In 2024, sales averaged 58 Euros. Other plants in Europe include coal-fired and gas-fired power stations, as well as solar and wind energy generation units. These were not included in the slide show. Uniper reported that it sold 50% of its nuclear and hydropower output in 2026, and 30% for 2027, at an average price of 38 euros, after achieving 38 euros on 75% of the 2025 output and 43 euros in 2020. $1 = 0.8836 euros (reporting and editing by Clarence Fernandez; Vera Eckert)
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Geberit expects European construction stabilisation in 2025, after posting higher sales
Geberit, a building materials supplier, reported on Tuesday a nearly 5-percent increase in sales for its first quarter. It also said that it expected the European construction industry to "stabilise" in 2025 despite an uncertain economic environment. According to a poll conducted by AWP, Geberit is a manufacturer of toilets, bathroom tiles and piping. The company reported sales of 878.5 millions Swiss francs for the third quarter. This was up 4.9% compared to a year ago and higher than analysts' expectations, which were 869 million francs. Geberit first-quarter sales, measured in local currency, rose 5.3% on an annual basis. The company reported a core income (EBITDA), of 276.9 millions Swiss francs, for the third quarter. This is a 0.7% rise from a year ago, but still slightly below the 280million francs that was expected by the AWP analysts poll. Geberit’s core profit increased 1.5% after currency effects were adjusted, when compared to the same period in last year. Geberit results are indicative of the health of the construction industry as its products are widely used for both new constructions and renovations. Geberit said that it would continue to refrain from providing a detailed outlook for the full year but did not expect any changes in its forecast, which was shared with its results for the full year in March. The company stated that the announcement of additional U.S. Tariffs could negatively impact the economic development of the USA as well as the global economy. The company had predicted that the demand for building construction would'stabilise' by 2025. It also received a boost in sentiment from the German Infrastructure Fund.
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As focus shifts to Asian currencies, stocks drift and the dollar stabilizes
The dollar recovered some of its recent losses versus Asian counterparts on Tuesday as investor concerns about U.S. Tariffs and their impact upon economic growth returned. These fears, combined with the pledges of key oil producers to increase supply, kept crude prices near their four-year lows. Since April, the erratic policies of U.S. president Donald Trump has fueled significant waves of dollar sales as investors have shifted away from U.S.-based assets, driving up the euro, yen, and Swiss franc. The record rise of the Taiwan dollar in recent sessions has confirmed that dollar selling is now spreading to Asia. This has led to speculations about a possible revaluation to gain U.S. concessions on trade. The rally was a sign that a major unwinding is underway. It also shed light on a single economy amongst many where large dollar long positions have been built up by exporters and insurance companies over the years due to big trade surpluses. These positions are now being questioned and put on edge. On Tuesday, the focus shifted to Hong Kong where the de-facto central bank purchased $7.8 billion in order to prevent the local currency strengthening and breaking the peg with the greenback. Charu Chanana is the chief investment strategist of Saxo Singapore. She said that Asian FX was where it's at today. If these currencies continue to strengthen sharply, this could cause fears of a "reverse Asian currency crises", with possible ripple effects on the bond market, amid fears that Asian Institutions reassess unhedged Treasury holdings. China's Yuan has strengthened on the mainland to its highest rate since March 20, at 7.23 dollars. On Tuesday, the Taiwan dollar traded at 30.185 dollars for every dollar in the U.S., not far off from its near three-year peak of 29.59 dollars on Monday. The broadest MSCI index of Asia-Pacific stocks outside Japan rose 0.2% despite Japan being closed for the holiday. Taiwan stocks were not much changed. The blue-chip index in China returned to the market after a long holiday. It was up by nearly 1%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng index rose by 0.69%. The European stock futures point to a calm opening in the region, ahead of a scattering of manufacturing data which will likely provide an indication as to the impact of tariffs. U.S. futures also fell. Investors have been focused on the possibility that trade tensions could be eased between the U.S. Investors are left to try and make sense of headlines from the White House, but with little information. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, said on Sunday Washington was meeting with many nations, including China. His main priority in dealing with China is to get a fair deal. Trump imposed a 100% tax on movies made outside of the United States on Monday, but provided little information on the implementation. Saxo's Chanana stated that tariff headlines are driving the market more than anything else. The tactical risk-reward ratio could still tilt to the upside if hard data continues to hold up and sentiment is buoyed by trade deal hopes. Data released on Monday revealed that the U.S. service sector grew in April. Meanwhile, a measure of materials and services paid for by businesses soared to its highest level in over two years. This indicates an increase in inflation pressures caused by tariffs. The Federal Reserve will announce its policy on Wednesday. It is expected that the central bank will keep interest rates unchanged, but the focus of attention will be how policymakers navigate a path characterized by tariffs. Christian Scherrmann is the chief U.S. economics at DWS. "We believe they will adopt a slightly hawkish tone but in a direction more towards an extended pause rather than a possible hike." LSEG data revealed that traders are pricing 75 basis points in easing for this year, with the first possible move in July. Oil prices, which had hit four-year lows the previous session due to OPEC+'s decision to increase output, were stable on Tuesday. The gold price reached a new high of one week on the back of safe-haven demand. (Editing by Sam Holmes & Kate Mayberry).
Oil prices drop, causing buyers to buy more; concerns about oversupply weigh
The oil price rebounded by over 1% Tuesday, with technical rebounding and dip-buying after a previous session's drop due to OPEC+'s decision to increase output. However, concerns about the outlook for a market surplus persisted.
Brent crude futures rose by 92 cents a barrel to $61.15 at 0309 GMT. U.S. West Texas intermediate crude gained 89 cents a barrel to $58.02
The OPEC+ decision to increase oil production for a second month in a row, made over the weekend, pushed both benchmarks down to their lowest levels since February 2021.
Yeap Jun Rong is a market analyst at IG. He said that the slight rise in oil prices today appears to be more technical than fundamental. "The broader price movement is being impacted by persistent headwinds, including a pivotal change in OPEC+'s production strategy, uncertainty over demand due to U.S. Tariff risks and downgraded price forecasts."
Oil has dropped over 20% in the last six sessions, mainly due to expectations that production would exceed consumption. This is a result of increased bets placed on a global economic slowdown following U.S. president Donald Trump's shock tariffs in April.
On Tuesday, the return of Chinese participants to the market after a 5-day holiday that began on May 1 helped support prices.
"China reopened its doors today and as the world's largest oil importer, it is likely that buyers would have rushed to secure oil prices at their current low levels," said Priyanka Sackdeva, Senior Market Analyst at Phillip Nova.
Data showing an increase in orders in the U.S. - the world's largest oil consumer - also provided some support.
ISM (Institute for Supply Management) reported on Monday that its nonmanufacturing PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) rose to 51.6 from 50.8 last month. The economists polled had predicted that the services PMI would drop to 50.2.
As tariffs threaten the economy, it is likely that on Wednesday, the U.S. Federal Reserve won't change interest rates.
Barclays lowered their Brent crude forecast by $4 a barrel to $70 a barge for 2025, and set the estimate for 2026 at $62 a barge. They cited "a rocky path ahead for fundamentals", amid escalating tensions in trade and OPEC+’s shift in production strategy. Reporting by Siyi Liu and Arathy Sommesekhar, both in Houston. Editing by Muralikumar Anantharaman & Lincoln Feast.
(source: Reuters)