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Four sources claim that OPEC+ will continue to increase oil production.

OPEC+ will increase oil production and may unwind the voluntary cuts of 2.2 million barrels a day by the end October if the members don't improve their compliance with their production quotas.

OPEC+ surprised the oil market by releasing cuts faster than expected in April, despite low prices and weak demand. Sources have claimed that the move was intended by OPEC+'s leader Saudi Arabia as a punishment for some members who failed to meet their quotas.

On Saturday, the group, including the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, such as Russia agreed to another major output increase for June, bringing the total of the production it plans to release between April, may and June to almost 1 million bpd.

Four anonymous OPEC+ sources who were briefed about the situation said that OPEC+ would likely continue the trend, and in June will agree to release another 411,000 bpd for July.

OPEC, Saudi Arabia's government communications office and Alexander Novak's office in Russia did not respond immediately to a comment request.

Sources said that the group would likely approve accelerated increases for August, September, and October. The idea is to unwind the rest of the voluntary cuts in the event that Iraq, Kazakhstan, and other laggards fail to improve their compliance and deliver compensation reductions.

One source said that if compliance did not improve by November, the voluntary reductions would be unwound. This was referring to OPEC+ voluntary cuts of 2.2 million bpd by eight members.

OPEC+ continues to cut output by nearly 5 million bpd, and many of these cuts will remain in place through the end of 2026.

In December, OPEC+ agreed that the voluntary portion of the total reductions would be phased out gradually by the end September 2026. However, they agreed to speed up this process in April.

In April, oil prices dropped to a 4-year low below $60 per barrel due to accelerated OPEC+ increases and U.S. president Donald Trump's new tariffs.

UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo stated that the market would take this news as a negative, so long as crude oil exports did not indicate an improved compliance with OPEC+.

Reports this week stated that Saudi officials had informed allies and officials from the oil industry that they were unwilling to support oil markets by cutting further supply.

Kazakhstan's energy minister defied OPEC+ by saying he would put national interests ahead of those of OPEC+ when deciding the level of oil production. Kazakhstan's oil production in April exceeded its OPEC+ quota despite a 3% drop. (Alex Lawler, Yousef Sabah and Dmitry Zhdannikov contributed additional reporting; Dmitry Zhdannikov wrote the article. Frances Kerry and Helen Popper edited it.)

(source: Reuters)