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Cal Fire warns of evacuations in the eastern part of California due to a growing wildfire
Cal Fire, the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection said that a rapidly growing wildfire in California’s Eastern Sierra region has burned 1,000 acres and forced evacuations across multiple counties. Cal Fire reported that the Silver Fire, which erupted around 2:11 pm PT Sunday near Highway 6 & Silver Canyon Road, was still at zero percent containment. Cal Fire said that evacuation orders had been issued for a number of communities including Laws, in Inyo County; Chalfant, in Mono County; and White Mountain Estates. Also, a 30-mile stretch along U.S. Highway 6 has been closed. No immediate reports of structural damage or injuries have been made. Cal Fire says that the cause of this fire is still under investigation. Cal Fire posted a Facebook post late Sunday stating that more than 200 firefighters were fighting the fire. However, gusts of up to 35 miles per hours at Bishop Airport grounded several firefighting planes and complicated containment attempts. The National Weather Service forecasts southwest winds up to 65 mph with gusts of up to 25 mph for Monday in the region. Los Angeles, the largest city in California, suffered its worst fires ever earlier this year. The fires killed 28 people, damaged or destroyed more than 16,000 buildings, and caused extensive damage.
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KKR is the frontrunner for equity raise by UK's Thames Water
Thames Water has named U.S. Investment firm KKR the leading candidate to invest in new equity and help Britain's largest water provider avoid a government rescue. Thames Water, the poster child of Britain's broken-down water sector, has been fighting against financial collapse for over a year. It needs to raise 3 billion pounds ($3.9 million) in new equity, and restructure debt if it wants to survive past 2026. The company stated that KKR's offer included financial metrics which indicated "a material impairment" in senior debt. Discussions were still ongoing between the two parties and there was no guarantee a deal would happen. KKR was the preferred bidder among the six bidders that Thames Water said were interested at the end of March. Thames Water stated that the timetable for this deal is to reach agreement by the end of the second quarter, and complete the deal in 2025's second half. Three days earlier, Thames Water had announced that Alastair Cchran as chief financial officer was to be replaced. Leaving abruptly . The company stated that it was focusing on financial stability. The statement from Monday stated that "the company remains focused on putting Thames Water onto a more solid financial foundation, implementing the turnaround plan, and delivering a solution led by the market which is in the interests of the customers, UK tax payers, and the wider economic environment." The company said that some senior creditors were working on "alternative transactions structures" in parallel for the recapitalisation. Reporting by Sarah Young, Yamini Kalya and James Daverry in Bengaluru. Editing by Sherry Jabr-Phillips.
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Japan megaquake estimates could kill 300,000 and cause damage of $1.8 trillion
A government report on Monday said that Japan's economy may suffer a loss of up to $1.81 trillion if a megaquake, long anticipated off its Pacific Coast, occurs. This could cause devastating tsunamis and the collapse of hundreds or buildings, as well as the death of 300,000 people. Cabinet Office's report shows that the expected economic damages of 270.3 trillion Japanese yen or nearly half the country's gross domestic product (GDP) are up from the previous estimate which was 214.2 trillion. The new estimate took into account inflationary pressures as well as updated terrain and ground information, which has expanded the anticipated flood zones. The government predicts that there is an 80% probability of a large earthquake of magnitude 8-9 along the Nankai Trough, a zone of unstable seabed. In the worst case scenario, based upon a possible magnitude 9 earthquake, Japan will likely see 1,23 million evacuees, or 10% of its population. The report said that as many as 298,000 people may die from the tsunami and collapse of buildings if an earthquake occurs at night during winter. The trough runs approximately 900 km (625 miles) off the southwest coast of Japan, where the Philippine Sea Plate subducts under the Eurasian Plate. The accumulation of tectonic forces could lead to a massive earthquake roughly every 100-150 years. After a magnitude 7.1 quake at the edge, Japan issued the first ever megaquake warning last year. More than 15 000 people were killed by a magnitude 9 earthquake in 2011, which triggered a tsunami that was devastating and triple meltdowns of reactors at a nuclear plant in the northeastern part of Japan. ($1 = 149.0500 Japanese yen)
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New York Times Business News - March 31, 2019
These are the most popular stories from the New York Times' business pages. These stories have not been verified and we cannot vouch their accuracy. If he believes that Moscow is blocking the efforts of President Donald Trump to end the conflict in Ukraine, he will impose secondary duties of 25 to 50 percent on Russian oil buyers. Nearly 40 countries, including China and Russia, have voiced their opposition to the plan of The Metals Company, a Canadian miner, to begin seabed mining on the Pacific Ocean. The company applied for exploration permits and permits to the U.S. Department of Commerce in order to extract minerals. In response to Donald Trump’s latest claim that he wanted to annex Greenland in a Facebook post, Jens-Frederik Nielsen stated on Sunday that the United States would not be able to get Greenland. Donald Trump didn't rule out a third term on the job in his Sunday speech. He said that he wasn't "joking" and suggested there are "methods" for circumventing the Constitutional limit of two terms. He added that it was still too early to consider such a move. (Compiled by Bengaluru Newsroom)
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The VDMA Engineering Group in Germany has seen a weak recovery this year
The VDMA association reported on Monday that geopolitical conflicts, U.S. tariffs, and general uncertainty have clouded the prospects for a robust recovery. The engineering group reiterated its forecast and also called on Germany's new government to implement deep reforms including tax cuts, reducing regulations, and other measures to end what it described a paralysis of Europe's largest economy. In a press release marking the opening of the Hannover Messe, the BDI industry group echoed these calls but predicted a slightly less drastic decline in production this year of 0.5%. Ralph Wiechers, chief economist at the VDMA, said on the first day that the low point in production was reached during the first quarter. A recovery has begun - but hesitantly and not uniformly. The VDMA predicted a decline of 8%, but the 7.2% was slightly less than that. It said that capacity utilisation in January was 78% due to the lack of new orders, and the depleted backlogs. Around 1 million people are employed in the sector, which includes well-known German names like Siemens and Thyssenkrupp. Reporting by Tom Kaeckenhoff, Christian Kraemer and Madeleine Chambers and Rachel More.
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MORNING BID EUROPE - Risk assets are trampled under Trump's tariffs for everyone
Trying to stay up-to-date with the latest news on tariffs? This daily news digest provides a quick overview of global trade headlines. Tariff Watch is free. Sign up here. Wayne Cole gives us a look at what the future holds for European and global markets. The week has started off rocky in Asia, as stocks have fallen across the board due to a rush to risk. Bonds extended their rally while gold reached another record. The mood was already fragile before the announcement of U.S. Tariffs on Wednesday, but President Trump exacerbated it by telling reporters aboard Air Force One that levies will cover all countries - not just select ones. He is known to make these comments in the early hours of Asia's trading day, when liquidity is low. This causes a lot of waves. Nikkei was the worst of the lot, with a drop of 3.8%. It was the biggest daily fall in six months. Almost all of Asia ended up in the red. Nasdaq's futures fell 1.3%, and major European stock futures were not far behind. Analysts were convinced by Trump's apparent indifference towards rising auto prices. Goldman Sachs expects that reciprocal tariffs across all U.S. trade partners will average 15%. Goldman Sachs increased the likelihood of a U.S. economic recession from 20% to 35% in the same note. The "R"-word is now on everyone's lips. Investors expect this slowdown will outweigh the inflationary effect of tariffs, and push the Fed to cut rates by 75 basis point this year. However, it would take a significant increase in unemployment for such action to be warranted. The markets have 60 bps of ECB easing for this year, and 50 bps of Bank of England easing. Bond investors were comforted by the thought of this easing and the flight to safety. The yields on ten-year Treasury bonds fell from 4.40% to 4.21% last Thursday, a drop of nearly 4%. The question is whether the rally will continue when the inflation data begin to show the effect of tariffs. As of now, lower yields are pushing the dollar against the yen and the euro, while the pound and the Euro have also risen. The yields are important, but it could be harder for the US dollar to maintain its status as a safe haven when the White House is at the center of the turmoil. Market developments on Monday that may have a significant impact - German retail sales data, CPI and imported prices Speakers from Riksbank, Norges Bank Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey for March
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Where's my car, dude? Toyota hybrid buyers facing long waits
Four people with knowledge of the situation say that Toyota's gasoline/electric hybrids are in high demand, and suppliers are struggling to keep up. This has led to parts shortages and long waits for buyers. Two people said that Toyota dealers in major markets such as the U.S.A., Japan China and Europe have low stock of hybrids. Toyota, which is the leader in hybrids, faces a major challenge from this surge in demand. It also validates the Japanese automaker’s bet in the technology, despite predictions from some competitors that battery-only vehicles would wipe hybrid demand out. LMC Automotive's data shows that global sales of hybrids and plug-in models have nearly tripled in the last five years. One person said that Toyota customers in Europe are currently waiting 60-70 days on average for new hybrids. This is about twice as long as it will be by 2020. Toyota says that the Yaris Cross Hybrid and RAV4 Plug-in Hybrid are the vehicles with the highest demand in Europe and the shortest supply. A Toyota website shows that buyers in Japan wait between two and five months to receive many models. One person reported that Prius hybrids had been sold out at a dealership on the West Coast of the United States by mid-February, and only a few Camry hybrids remained. Another person stated that delivery times in India have improved from last year, but still range between two and nine months, depending on the model. Ten industry figures were interviewed, including Toyota employees and suppliers. They described the bottlenecks that are affecting the supply chain for hybrid vehicles. Toyota has not previously disclosed details of the parts or suppliers involved and the measures it is considering in order to relieve the pressure on one market. Toyota stated in a press release that the demand for hybrid cars had increased "significantly" in the last year, in all regions. It was responding by increasing production. The automaker claimed to have improved its vehicle delivery lead times over the last year. The report stated that "currently, the production capacity of hybrid parts and components at our suppliers' and in-house part manufacturing is aligned with our annual production plan and our vehicle assembly capacities." Snarls for Supply Some customers are frustrated by the delivery times. Saugata Dasgupta is an Asia Development Bank executive based in New Delhi. He told us he had ordered a hybrid Toyota Innova Hycross in January 2023. He learned in August 2024 from the dealer that he would have to wait another 25-30 weeks. Another email arrived this month: He will need to wait 15 to 25 more weeks. Dasgupta claimed that he had given up on waiting by then and purchased a gasoline powered model from the local automaker Mahindra & Mahindra. Two of the people who spoke to us were anonymous because they were not authorized to reveal the information. One person said that a shortage of magnets in parts for Aisin Corp was a major problem. This person stated that Aisin, a major component maker for the Toyota Group, was unable to obtain rotors or stators from their suppliers. As a result of this, delivery of hybrid motors by Toyota was delayed. The magnets were sourced in Japan and China but the supply problem for Aisin, according to the person, was global. Another person stated that Denso's inverters were also delayed due to bottlenecks with suppliers at the second and third tiers. Inverters are used to convert the battery current into a form that can be controlled by the motor. Two people said that Toyota is looking at other suppliers than Denso to meet its component needs, and may even consider manufacturing inverters there. Toyota didn't address questions about specific suppliers. Aisin Denso refused to comment. Last year, it was reported that Toyota plans to convert the majority of its line to hybrid vehicles. This could increase pressure on suppliers. Addition of Capacity Varinder Waddhwa is a vice-president at Toyota Kirloskar Motor in India. He said that the removal of supply chain bottlenecks has already led to "significant rationalization" in wait times. Wadhwa stated that the company has recently increased its capacity to produce 32,000 additional vehicles per year and is investing in another 100,000 vehicles. Toyota also invested $14 billion in a battery factory in North Carolina in order to meet the demand for hybrid vehicles. It has stated that it will begin shipping batteries for North American electric vehicles in April. Toyota built hybrids in nearly half of its vehicles assembled in the U.S. Toyota's hybrids are one of the few bright spots in China where it is facing fierce competition, such as BYD. Toyota's total sales in China fell by 7% in 2024 compared to a year ago, but sales of electrified vehicles (mostly hybrids) grew by 27%. According to someone familiar with the situation, competitors such as Hyundai, and its Kia affiliate, are also struggling to ramp-up production of hybrids. This is primarily due to a shortage of capacity. This month, a Hyundai dealer in Seoul stated that it would take a full year to receive the hybrid version for the Palisade SUV. Documents from Kia show that the wait time for its Carnival hybrid is 10 months and seven months for Sorento. Hyundai has not responded to any questions regarding the current situation. Hyundai announced in August that it will double its hybrid line-up to 14 models by 2030, to counter the slowdown of EV adoption. Honda, another hybrid player, reported strong demand in North America and Japan but refused to provide specifics about delivery times. Hybrids are worth the wait for some customers because of fuel savings. Rakesh Kumar is a businessman from India's Uttar Pradesh. He finally received his Toyota Hyryder in March, nearly five months after ordering it. He said: "We already have a hybrid in our family, and I know that it gets better mileage than any other vehicle." Aditi Shirouzu and Norihiko Shrouzu reported; additional reporting was done by Daniel Leussink and Heekyong Yah in Seoul and Hyunjoo Ji and Heekyong Jin in Tokyo; Saurabh Sharma and David Dolan edited the story.
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Oil markets are waiting to see if Trump’s Russian oil tariff threats is a bluff
The oil markets shrugged Monday off the threat of U.S. president Donald Trump to impose tariffs on Russian oil buyers as the shock factor of the White House's barrage of threats begins to wear out with jaded traders. Analysts and traders have questioned the seriousness of Trump's proposal. Warren Patterson, ING's director of commodities strategy, said that the U.S. government's announcements on tariffs and other sanctions have a tired feel. He said that the market would not overreact until he could provide more concrete information. The price of oil fell on Monday. Brent crude futures, the most active, were down 0.2% to $72.59 per barrel at 0028 GMT. U.S. West Texas intermediate crude was also lower by 0.3% to $69.18 per barrel. China and India are the two largest buyers of Russian crude oil. Their consent is crucial for any secondary sanctions package to seriously harm exports. Sinopec, Zhenhua Oil, and two other Chinese oil companies have stopped buying Russian oil due to recent U.S. sanctions against Moscow. On Monday morning, however, several Chinese traders appeared unfazed. Three people who spoke to all said that Trump's constant brinksmanship made them discount what he said. Unidentified trader said: "We are all numb, the oil prices don't respond." It's not worth listening to Trump any more. A second said: "It is hard to know what impact it would have as Trump always lies, and his words are no longer credible." Analysts said that if the tariffs were to become a serious threat to the markets, they would focus on how strict the policy was and whether the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) would increase production to compensate for any decrease in Russian exports. Patterson said that the secondary sanctions on Venezuelan oil imposed last week can be used as a template for markets to evaluate the impact of similar policies against Russia. Chinese buyers had already stopped their purchases before the sanctions took effect on Wednesday. Analysts and traders expect that some sales will resume as buyers come up with workarounds, unless Beijing bans all purchases.
Gold reaches record levels as trade worries weigh on stocks
The Asian and European stock exchanges extended their losses on Friday, while gold, the safe haven asset of choice for investors, reached a new record high. This was after President Donald Trump's latest tariff salvo fueled fears of a full-blown trade war.
The dollar and oil were also in trouble, as Trump's 25% auto tariffs that will be implemented next week along with plans for a much wider global levies continue to draw harsh criticism from countries and companies.
The Nikkei 225 index of Japan fell by nearly 2%, led by the sharp declines in auto giants Toyota, and Honda. South Korea's Kopsi, which includes Hyundai, and Kia, also dropped 2%.
The STOXX 600 Index in Europe also dipped, with the auto and auto part sector expected to drop 2% on a weekly basis, marking its sixth consecutive week of declines.
Michael Metcalfe, State Street's global macro strategy head, said that the U.S. auto tariffs were more aggressive than anticipated. This is especially true since no adjustments had been made for neighbours such as Mexico and Canada.
Metcalfe stated, "I don't know if the hawkishness in the auto tariffs will translate into the broader tariffs we will get next week." "And this is keeping the risk appetite on the backfoot."
Volvo, Volkswagen Audi, Mercedes-Benz, and Hyundai are among the car companies that have announced they will move some of their production. Ferrari, which manufactures all its cars in Italy said that it would increase prices by as much as 10% on certain models.
Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index fell 0.6%, as traders awaited clarification on Trump's plans regarding tariffs for China. Trump said that he was willing to lower tariffs against China in order to reach a deal with TikTok parent company ByteDance, which is based in China.
Now, the focus is on the reciprocal tariffs that will be announced by the U.S. on April 2. Trump said that the levies on what he called 'liberation' day may not be like-for-like.
"Not surprisingly, the tariff talk is resulting in another round of risk-off," said Thierry Wizman, global FX & rates strategist at Macquarie, as tariffs are likely to be both "growth-restraining and inflation-producing".
Inflation Test
The U.S. Dollar was stable in currency markets ahead of a report on inflation later that day.
The U.S. The U.S.
Analysts predicted that the dollar would perform well due to Trump's "America first" policies. The dollar has had its worst year start since 2008.
The greenback has struggled, and the euro has benefited from this. The euro slipped to $1.07 on Friday, as German consumer confidence data revealed the uncertainty in Europe's biggest economy. However, it is still higher than the previous year.
The yen strengthened on the day, reaching 150.675 dollars. It is on track to gain nearly 4% against the dollar this quarter as the Bank of Japan has indicated that it will raise interest rates once again.
These expectations were further reinforced on Friday when data revealed that core consumer inflation in Tokyo was up in March.
DBS's strategists predict a near-term consolidation of the yen. They believe that it is trapped between trade risks, and rising inflation.
The money markets increased their bets for future rate cuts by the European Central Bank due to tariff tensions and after March's inflation data in France and Spain was lower than expected.
Traders have now priced in a 80% chance that the ECB will cut its rate by 25 basis points in April, up from 50% a week earlier. German Bund yields
It seems likely that the ECB's conclusion will be that the downside risks of escalating tensions in trade are manifesting," said Christoph Rieger at Commerzbank.
Gold prices reached a record high in commodities on Friday, as the threat from trade wars prompted a rush to the metal of safety. Gold spot was up last by 0.77% to $3,079.5 an ounce.
Gold has risen by more than 17% during the first three months of this year. It is on track to have its best quarter since 1986.
Michael Brown, Senior Research Strategist at Pepperstone, said: "Continued demand for havens, combined with central bank purchases by EM countries in an attempt to diversify FX reserve, makes a convincing case for the bulls here."
The oil prices have eased as traders assess the tightening crude supply and new U.S. Tariffs, along with their effect on global economy.
Brent crude futures are at $74 per barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude Futures were just below $70.
(source: Reuters)