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The oil price recovers after positive Chinese manufacturing data boosts some optimism

Oil prices rose on Monday, as positive manufacturing data from China - the world's largest crude importer - led to renewed optimism about fuel demand. However, uncertainty remained over a possible Ukraine peace agreement and potential U.S. trade tariffs, which could have a negative impact on global economic growth.

Brent crude rose 36 cents or 0.5% to $73.17 a bar by 0439 GMT, while U.S. West Texas intermediate crude was $70.10 a bar, up 34 cents or 0.5%.

Prices rose on Saturday after data showed that China's manufacturing sector expanded at its fastest pace in 3 months in February. New orders and increased purchase volumes contributed to the solid increase in production. Investors are looking forward to China's annual parliament meeting that begins March 5 for more measures to help its battered economic situation.

Tony Sycamore, IG's market analyst, said that one possible reason for the price increase was the fact that the China NBS Manufacturing PMI returned to expansionary territory at the weekend.

He warned that the outlook for the economy of the country may not be encouraging, as another round on tariffs on exports will begin on March 4.

Goldman Sachs analysts were more optimistic about the data. They said in a report that it suggested a stable or slightly improved economic activity in China by early 2025. However, the additional 10% U.S. duty may lead to retaliatory actions.

Brent and WTI both posted their first monthly drops in three months last month as the threat from tariffs imposed by the U.S.

The mood improved following a Sunday summit where European leaders showed their support for Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy, and pledged to do more to assist his nation. This was just two days after U.S. Donald Trump had clashed against him and Zelenskiy had cut short a Washington visit.

Zelenskiy stated on Sunday that, while he believes he can salvage his relationship with Trump, the talks must continue behind closed door. He said that he was ready to sign an agreement on minerals with the United States and believed that the U.S. were also ready.

In a recent note, ING analysts led Warren Patterson stated that it was unclear where the U.S. is now. This makes a peace agreement seem further away than a week earlier. This is changing the hopes of energy markets for a possible easing in sanctions.

Another plant in Ufa, Russia, is reportedly on fire. In addition to the ongoing attacks against Russian refineries, there are concerns over its refined product exports.

A poll revealed that analysts expect oil prices to remain largely unchanged in 2025. They estimate Brent will average $74.63 per barrel. This is because they believe any negative impact of further U.S. sanctioned will be offset by an ample supply, and a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine.

Eight international oil companies operating in the region said they would not resume shipments through Turkey’s Ceyhan port due to the lack of clarity regarding commercial agreements and payment guarantees for past and future shipments. (Reporting and editing by Christian Schmollinger, Gerry Doyle and Florence Tan)

(source: Reuters)