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Treasury yields rise slightly as dollar is weakened by US growth concerns

Treasury yields rise slightly as dollar is weakened by US growth concerns

The U.S. Treasury yields recovered some ground after the House of Representatives on Wednesday.

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The dollar and oil prices are struggling due to growing concerns about the U.S. economic outlook.

After Trump ordered an investigation into possible new tariffs against copper imports on Tuesday, U.S. prices of copper rose by more than 4% overnight.

The Republican-controlled U.S. House of Representatives late on Tuesday narrowly passed Trump's $4.5 trillion tax-cut plan, sending the budget resolution to the Senate, where Republicans are expected to take it up.

Investors anticipate that more debt will be issued in the future, and the 10-year benchmark yield rose by roughly 3 basis points.

The yield on the two-year bond rose by 2.7 basis points to 4.129%.

Tony Sycamore is a market analyst for IG. He said, "(The plan's) progress was a bit faster than expected." You can see how yields are changing, and it caught people off guard.

In the previous session, yields fell to their lowest level in several months as traders increased bets on more Federal Reserve rate reductions this year due to growing concerns about the outlook for the largest economy in the world.

The latest survey data released on Tuesday shows that U.S. consumers' confidence dropped at the fastest pace in three-and-a half years in February. This is the latest of a series of surveys which indicate that both businesses and consumers are becoming more concerned about the policies of the Trump administration.

"We are not surprised by the low consumer confidence figures. We are surprised that they're coming out now, even before the tariffs have an impact on consumers," said Joseph Capurso of Commonwealth Bank of Australia.

Fed funds futures indicate that nearly 60 basis point of easing will be priced in before year's end, up from 40 bps just a week earlier.

This weighed down the dollar, especially against the yen. In the previous session, the greenback fell to a four-month low versus the Japanese currency.

The last time it traded, the yen was 0.25% higher than its previous price of 149.38. This is due to the recent rebound in U.S. Treasury rates.

The euro, in other currencies, fell 0.11%, to $1.0502. However, it was still near its one-month high. The pound was also within striking distance of a two-month high and bought $1.2651 last.

Capurso, of CBA, said that the dollar is weakening because of the soft economic data. But at some point you reach a threshold, where safe-haven flows are directed into the U.S. Dollar. "If things really get bad in America, say, the market begins pricing in a possible recession or even something that is close to one, the U.S. Dollar will always go up," said CBA's Capurso.

The outlook for oil demand is also clouded by fears of a slowing U.S. economy.

Brent futures rose by 0.08%, to $73.08 per barrel after falling more than 2% the previous session. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI), however, increased by 0.09%, to $68.99 a barrel, reversing a portion of Tuesday's 2.5% decline.

Gold prices rose 0.2% on Wednesday, thanks to safe-haven flows. The ounce price increased to $2,920.83.

ASIA SHARES UPBEAT

On Wednesday, MSCI’s broadest Asia-Pacific share index outside Japan gained 0.67%, boosted by a rise in Chinese stocks.

Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index soared by more than 2%. The Hang Seng Tech Index also rose 3.6%.

The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.5% while the CSI300 blue chip index increased by 0.15%.

Chinese stocks are on fire in the last few weeks. DeepSeek's AI breakthrough has reignited interest among investors in China's technological capabilities.

The rally was slowed down earlier this week by news that the Trump Administration plans to tighten the semiconductor curbs on China. Also, after the U.S. president signed a memo directing the Committee on Foreign Investment to restrict Chinese investment in strategic areas.

Vishnu Varathan is the head of Asia ex-Japan macro research at Mizuho.

Not in China's particular case. The U.S. is determined to cause significant industrial pain, which will compromise technological advantage and manufacturing capacity or clout.

Japan's Nikkei index fell by more than 1%.

After a mixed session, U.S. stocks futures have rebounded. Nasdaq Futures rose 0.5% and S&P500 Futures gained 0.35%.

The futures of the EUROSTOXX50 index also rose by 0.46%, while FTSE futures gained 0.43%.

Nvidia, the AI sector's poster child, will report its earnings for the quarter on Wednesday. This could provide clarity and justify high valuations.

Due to the slow returns and breakthroughs made by China's DeepSeek, investor scepticism about the billions of dollars that U.S. technology firms have invested in AI infrastructure has increased.

Jacob Falkencrone, global head of Saxo’s investment strategy, said that any signs of weakness within Nvidia’s report would have a significant impact on investor sentiment toward AI stocks in general.

This earnings report isn't about Nvidia...it's about if the AI revolution can continue its rapid pace.

(source: Reuters)