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MORNING BID AMERICAS-Walmart clips Wall St, euro eyes German vote

MORNING BID AMERICAS-Walmart clips Wall St, euro eyes German vote

Mike Dolan gives us a look at what the U.S. market and the global market will be like today. Wall Street was stung by Walmart's disappointing results. This cast a shadow over the U.S. consumers, just as the more buoyant European markets were awaiting the German election this weekend.

In the last 24 hours, world markets were roiled by a slew of influences, including geopolitics and trade, as well as monetary policy, corporate earnings, and monetary policies that are often at odds.

The biggest blow was caused by the retailer's failure to meet its profit and sales forecasts, citing the volatile political climate and the upcoming trade uncertainty.

Walmart's stock fell 6.5%. This was despite a record-breaking rise of more than 80% in the last year. It also represents a strong performance since Donald Trump won the election.

Amazon also lost almost 2% after last week's disappointing U.S. January retail sales. S&P500 lost almost 0.5% on Friday and futures were unable to hold their ground.

Palantir, which offers software to visualize army positions and other services for governments, fell 5% when the Pentagon announced it would be looking at possible budget cuts in fiscal year 2026.

Today's macro-diary is dominated by flash business surveys from February, and the results of AI chip giant Nvidia are due next week.

In the Philadelphia Federal Reserve's latest surveys, the mid-Atlantic region saw manufacturing activity levels plummet this month to the lowest level in almost five years. Jobless claims also increased in the last week.

Treasury yields fell on retail and business readings, even as Fed officials continued signaling caution over further easing of policy amid persistent inflation uncertainty.

Scott Bessent's comments about the "long way off" of any increase in longer-term Treasuries as part of government debt issuance helped to further reduce debt yields. This is despite his criticism of former Treasury chief Janet Yellen's front-loading of debt into short-term maturity.

He said, "We will see what the market demands."

The dollar index fell to its lowest point of the year due to the decline in stocks and yields. However, the greenback recovered some of its losses on Friday.

The dollar's drop was mainly concentrated against the yen of Japan, where speculation has increased about a Bank of Japan rate hike as early as next month.

The Japanese inflation data released on Friday confirmed this talk. In fact, the headline annual price increases in Japan last month reached 4% for only the second time in two-years. Sayuri Shira, a former central bank member, said that March would be an 'excellent opportunity' to raise rates.

In a bizarre twist, however, the yen has retreated after Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo ueda announced on Friday that the central bank is ready to increase its government bond purchases if interest rates for long-term bonds rise dramatically.

Ueda’s remarks helped lower the 10-year Japanese Government Bond yield to 1.42%, from 1.455% earlier that day. It was its highest level since November 2009.

Ueda’s comments are a subject of debate. They may reinforce speculations about the rate hike or signal concern over its impact. But Japan's Nikkei stock index ended higher.

In Europe, the Sunday election in Germany is a major concern. This is despite tensions over Trump's surprising change of stance this week on Ukraine and the looming threat of tariffs.

The German stock market has performed well this year largely because of the expectation that the new government would have the backing it needs to lift the 'debt-freeze' they imposed after the elections and increase defense and investment expenditure.

The benchmark DAX in Germany was up 0.8% on Friday, after hitting a seven-month high early this week. The release of the business surveys that showed a slight increase in activity in Germany's Private Sector in February helped.

As the vote approaches, the euro has retreated slightly from its near three-week high. The results of the vote will depend on the success or failure of smaller parties to clear the 5% threshold for entry into parliament. This is crucial to the calculation to determine whether a new government can get the two-thirds majority needed to change the debt clause.

Sterling briefly reached a new year-high against the dollar following a surprising upbeat report on retail sales for January.

After Alibaba's strong earnings report on Thursday, Chinese shares rose again.

The Hang Seng closed the day 4% higher.

The following developments should help to guide U.S. stock markets on Friday:

(source: Reuters)