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OPEC+ switches strategy to protect market share: Kemp

Oil futures rates have been up to the lowest level for 4 months and calendar spreads have dropped after OPEC+ ministers indicated their intention to start increasing production from the fourth quarter of 2024.

Front-month Brent futures closed at $78 per barrel on June 3, the very first day of trading following the OPEC+ ministerial meeting on June 2, up simply $2 per barrel compared to the same time last year.

Front-month Brent futures traded at a premium of $1.50 per barrel over contracts 6 months further forward (56th. percentile for all months considering that 2000) below an average of. $ 2.85 (78th percentile) in May and $4.86 (95th percentile) in. April.

Chartbook: Brent calendar spreads out

Following a hybrid conference held in Riyadh and online, OPEC+. revealed voluntary output cuts amounting to 2.2 million barrels. each day (b/d) would be extended until the end of September 2024.

However the cuts will then be gradually phased out on a regular monthly. basis over the final quarter of 2024 and the very first three. quarters of 2025.

The scheduled production increases go through the caveat. they can be paused or reversed based on market conditions,. ministers stated.

However it is however a huge increment-- comparable to. roughly 18 months of regular development in worldwide oil intake.

Undoubtedly, prices have fallen.

STRATEGY SHIFT

The scheduled production boosts mark a change of technique. by OPEC+, led by Saudi Arabia, which had actually previously concentrated on. diminishing excess stocks and driving costs towards $100 per. barrel.

Instead, the group has actually changed its focus to stabilising, or. even gaining back, some of the market share it has actually lost in the last. 2 years to competing producers in the United States, Canada,. Brazil and Guyana.

Repeated authorities and voluntary production cuts by Saudi. Arabia and other OPEC+ members have stopped working to lift prices,. though they most likely avoided a more serious decline.

Instead they have actually tossed a lifeline to higher-cost manufacturers. in the western hemisphere, motivating them to preserve and even. boost output.

Dwindling OPEC+ market share has just become too uncomfortable. and contentious to sustain; it brings uneasy suggestions. about Saudi Arabia's function as a swing manufacturer in the early. 1980s.

The scheduled boosts are planned to indicate there is a. limitation to how far Saudi Arabia and its closest allies will cut. production by themselves to support prices, and they do not. accept cuts are long-term.

To stabilise and recapture market share, OPEC+ needs slower. development in rivals' output and faster growth in consumption.

Both imply lower prices to implement a downturn in drilling,. promote fuel usage, and make room for more OPEC+ crude.

Extra production also indicates inventories will be greater. than formerly prepared for, discussing the unexpected depression in. spreads.

MAKING MORE ROOM

For OPEC+ to pump more, others should pump less, other things. equal, which requires lower rates to force a production. downturn, especially in the price-sensitive and short-cycle U.S. shale sector.

Pre-announcing increases in OPEC+ production is intended to. avert further increases in output by the U.S. shale sector,. partly through signalling and partially through lower rates. themselves.

By postponing the first production boosts till October,. and making them conditional on future market conditions, OPEC+. ministers have actually offered themselves some flexibility.

Arranged production boosts can be postponed once again if oil. consumption development stops working to speed up, stocks remain. comfy and rates remain under pressure.

However OPEC+ has actually signified an important shift in the instructions. of policy. Having actually repeatedly thrown the shale sector a lifeline. in 2023, OPEC+ is preparing to squeeze it once again in 2025.

Associated columns:

- OPEC? likely to extend production cuts in June (May 3,. 2024)

- Record U.S. oil and gas production keeps rates under. pressure (March 1, 2024)

- Western Hemisphere oil output surges, with an assisting hand. from OPEC (February 21, 2024)

John Kemp is a market expert. The views revealed. are his own. Follow his commentary on X https://twitter.com/JKempEnergy.