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European shares rally, considering ECB rate move

World stocks got on Monday while Treasury yields dropped after information showed unforeseen weak point in U.S. manufacturing activity, adding to unpredictability around the possibility of U.S. rate of interest cuts this year.

The cloudy outlook for U.S. rates contrasts with Europe, where investors are anticipating a 25-basis-point interest rate cut by the European Reserve Bank on Thursday, which would bring the benchmark rate to 3.75%.

By 1517 GMT, the MSCI All Country World Cost Index increased 0.33%, although U.S. stock indices flipped into losses, in the middle of a reported technical glitch on the New York Stock Exchange regarding Limited Up-Limit Down bands that sent dozen of stocks noted on the exchange into volatility pauses.

The exchange stated it was examining the issue and will supply details as quickly as possible.

The S&P 500 index edged 0.1% lower, the Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 0.6% while the Nasdaq Composite lost 0.37%. In contrast, the pan-European STOXX index was up 0.33%

Criteria U.S. Treasury yields fell to a two-week low after information showed that U.S. manufacturing activity slowed for a second straight month in May, as new items orders dropped by the most in almost 2 years.

The soft data supported some speculation that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates this year, although some investors remained sceptical about the possibility of rate cuts with inflation standing above its 2% target.

We see inflation restricting just how much reserve banks can cut rates of interest, Jean Bolvin, the head of Blackrock Investment Institute, said. We see them keeping rates high for longer.

Benchmark 10-year note yields were last down 9 basis points at 4.418%, and got as low as 4.404%, the most affordable considering that May 21. Two-year note yields fell 7 basis points to 4.823% and reached 4.816%, likewise the lowest given that May 21.

The inversion in the two-year, 10-year yield curve , a possible sign of future financial decline, deepened 3 basis points to minus 41 basis points.

In Europe, even though the ECB is thought about practically particular to cut rates on Thursday, last week's remarkably strong euro zone inflation data further deteriorated the case for a quick round of reductions.

Markets now cost in fewer than 60 basis points of alleviating - indicating two 25-basis-point cuts and less than a 50% opportunity of a. 3rd.

There's a reasonably favorable threat tone to begin the week,. which appears like an extension of the positive momentum seen on. Friday, albeit is somewhat surprising provided the bumper calendar. of occasion threat showing up, stated Michael Brown, strategist at. broker Pepperstone in London.

China's factory activity grew at the fastest speed in about. two years in May, data showed on Monday. That extended the. optimism dominating in markets following Friday figures revealing. the U.S. Federal Reserve's favored step of inflation held. steady in April.

The ECB decision is perhaps the most crucial occasion to. watch, particularly after last week's inflation information which. raises the hawkish risk that there is just one more cut this. year after a 25bp decrease on Thursday, Brown said.

Markets likewise suggest around an 80% opportunity the Bank of Canada. will cut rates at its conference on Wednesday and around 60 basis. points of easing this year, though experts are enthusiastic the. alleviating will be even deeper.

ASIAN STRENGTH

The dollar was up to a three-week low after the weak U.S. manufacturing information. The dollar index, a step of the U.S. currency's value versus six significant currencies, slipped 0.3% to. 104.24. The index earlier dropped to a three-week low of. 104.22.

The greenback also fell to a two-week low against the yen. following the data and was last down 0.6% at 156.245.

The euro rose 0.4% versus the dollar at $1.08893.

In other currencies, the Mexican peso deteriorated on Monday. after the ruling celebration stated Claudia Sheinbaum the winner of. the governmental election by a big margin after polls closed. on Sunday. The U.S. dollar was last up 3.1% at 17.52 pesos .

India's rupee strengthened and its stock exchange. increased to a record high, buoyed by expectations of. sustained financial growth as Prime Minister Narendra Modi looked. set for a third term.

Gold was up 0.7% at $2,342.9 an ounce, having now. rallied for 4 months in a row, helped in part by purchasing from. central banks and China.

Oil prices slumped after OPEC+ agreed on Sunday to extend. most of its oil output cuts into 2025, though some cuts will. start to be unwound from October 2024 onwards. Some analysts. described the group's decision, agreed on Sunday, as. incrementally bearish for oil costs.

Brent toppled 3.4% to $78.33 a barrel, while U.S. crude dropped 3.65% to $74.21 per barrel.

European natural gas prices increased more than 8%. to their greatest this year at over 37 euros/ MWh as a failure in. Norway, which overtook Russia in 2022 as Europe's greatest gas. provider, pressed exports dramatically lower on Monday. ($ 1 = 157.1900 yen)

(source: Reuters)