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OPEC sees robust summertime oil demand, financial upside possible

OPEC forecasted robust fuel use in the summertime on Thursday and stuck to its projection for reasonably strong growth in global oil demand in 2024, highlighting an unusually big gap in between predictions of oil demand strength.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, in a. monthly report, stated world oil need will increase by 2.25 million. barrels per day (bpd) in 2024 and by 1.85 million bpd in 2025.

Both forecasts were the same from last month.

A boost to economic growth could give additional tailwind to oil. prices, which have actually rallied above $90 a barrel this year on. tighter supply and war in the Middle East.

OPEC and its allies, known as OPEC+, recently accepted. keep oil output cuts in location up until completion of June.

Despite some downside threats, the continuation of the. momentum seen in the beginning of the year could lead to. even more upside possible for worldwide economic development in 2024,. OPEC stated in the report.

Expecting the summertime, when fuel demand rises. seasonally as individuals take a trip more, OPEC said international jet/kerosene. fuel need will rise by 600,000 bpd year on year in the 2nd. quarter, fuel by 400,000 bpd and diesel by 200,000 bpd.

Following last week's meeting of a panel of leading OPEC+. ministers, the full group will satisfy in June to decide whether to. extend output cuts even more or return some supply to the market.

The robust oil demand outlook for the summer season. warrants careful market tracking, amid continuous unpredictabilities,. to ensure a sound and sustainable market balance, the report. said.

OPEC sees world economic growth of 2.8% in 2024, steady from. last month, and stated the U.S. economy was set to offer the. conventional summer season boost to sustain demand.

The upcoming driving season in the U.S. is expected to. provide the usual additional need for transportation fuels,. OPEC said.

DEMAND VIEW SPLIT

There is a broader than normal split in between forecasters on the. strength of oil demand growth in 2024, partly due to distinctions. over the rate of the world's shift to cleaner fuels.

Today, energy trader Vitol said demand will rise by 1.9. million bpd this year, not far from OPEC's view, while the U.S. federal government's energy forecaster cut its development prediction to. 950,000 bpd.

The International Energy Company, which represents. industrialised nations and projections oil demand will peak by. 2030, sees an expansion of 1.33 million bpd and is set up to. update its figures on Friday.

OPEC thinks oil usage will keep increasing for the next two. years and has not anticipate a peak.

The OPEC+ alliance has actually carried out a series of output cuts. since late 2022 to support the market. A new cut of 2.2 million. bpd for the first quarter worked in January and was later on. extended to cover the 2nd quarter.

The OPEC report said OPEC oil production was constant in. March, increasing by 3,000 bpd to 26.60 million bpd despite the brand-new. round of cuts, with modest boosts in Iran and Saudi Arabia.

Need for OPEC crude this year is set to average 28.5. million bpd, the report stated, up 100,000 bpd from the previous. projection and, in theory, giving the group room to pump more.

(source: Reuters)