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Oil prices plunge as Trump declares that the Iran war may end soon.
Asian stocks surged and oil prices fell at the beginning of trading on Tuesday following a volatile session overnight for markets after U.S. president Donald Trump declared that the Middle East war might be "over soon." Brent crude futures dropped as much as 10 percent to below $90 a barrel when trading resumed. U.S. equity futurs were muted. S&P 500 futures fell 0.2%, reversing Monday's gains. Trump's comments injected an optimistic burst that contrasted sharply to events in Iran where hardliners rallied around the new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khmenei as a show of adamant?defiance. On Monday, the global markets were thrown into turmoil by competing signals: initially, oil prices spiked while Wall Street stocks fell before recovering sharply following Trump's remarks and reports that Washington might ease sanctions against Russian energy. Tony Sycamore is a market analyst with IG Sydney. He said: "While this has eased some of the panic in the short term, it is difficult to reconcile that the conflict was'very complete.'" The softer tone of President Trump’s rhetoric is welcome, and should at least help calm nerves ahead of today's meeting in Asia. Investor confidence has risen after the Monday sell-off, amid signs of increased risk taking by retail investors. Japan's Nikkei225 rose 3.6% and South Korea's Kospi soared 6.4%. After futures rose by more than 5% the Korea Exchange halted programme trading for 5 minutes. Iran's military warned that it would increase its missile attacks as a further show of defiance. Trump stated in a Truth Social post that if Iran did anything to stop the flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz they would be hit TWENTY TIMES HARDER than they had been so far. U.S. Treasury Bonds recovered after the Monday spike in oil prices caused an inflation fear and fuelled expectations of central banks?in Europe tightening policy later this year. According to CME Group's FedWatch, the yield on U.S. Treasury bonds 10-years was down 2.3 basis points at 4.109%. Traders were placing bets about the timing of Federal Reserve's rate cuts, the first one not expected until July. Analysts from ING stated that bond yields are still at troubling levels. Expect nominal yields to drop for a little bit on a reverse trade. In a note to clients, they warned that bonds would not experience a sudden structural rally. Remember, we have to overcome clear inflation impulses, and that the economy is still 'down but not out. The U.S. Dollar Index, which measures the strength of the greenback against a basket?of six major?peers?, has retraced its gains from the previous week, and is now trading at 98.79, down by 0.1%. Gold fell by 0.1% to $5,133.55 and remained within its trading range of the previous week. Cryptocurrencies remained in the same range as they have been since February 1. Bitcoin rose 0.2% to $69,127.60 while ether fell 0.4% to $2,018.69. (Reporting from Gregor Stuart Hunter).
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The Japanese snow monkey, Punch, captures the hearts of many while his kin are facing culls
The?charm of Punch the snow monkey, his stuffed orangutan and the?world has been captured by their charm. In the wild however, Japanese macaques are often viewed as pests that need to be chased away or eliminated in order to avoid economic damage for farmers. According to the Agriculture Ministry, monkeys will cause 770 million yen (4.86 million dollars) in damage by 2024. This is enough to justify Japan's capture and slaughter of thousands of primates each year. Treatment of'monkeys' is a controversial issue. It divides those who suffer from stolen crops, and others who support a humane solution. Takayo Soma is a primatologist from Kyoto University. "But it's not very scientific to cull monkeys without proper justification." Shigeyuki, a Shinshu University professor, said that killing a monkey troop only encourages others to replace it, making the practice "never-ending" and ineffective. Some people advocate non-lethal methods such as "monkey dogs" or trained pet dogs to chase intruders across a mountain. Takumi Matsuda is one of the few farmers who are enamoured by snow monkeys. He believes that humans must recognize their role in creating the problem, for example, by encroaching upon the critters’ natural habitat. Matsuda, who has a large following on Instagram, shares photos and videos of the primates he sees in the mountains in Nagano Prefecture in central Japan. He also said that he understands the concerns of farmers. He said: "It is not that the farmers are against the monkeys, but they're worried about their livelihood." "I hope Punch will inspire more people to visit real Japanese macaques in the wild.
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Japan's Q4 GDP increases on the back of robust business investment
Revised data revealed that Japan's economy has grown faster than originally estimated during the last three months of 2025. However, the Middle East conflict is still a factor in determining the outlook for growth. Gross domestic product (GDP), which is the sum of all goods and services produced in a country, grew by 1.3%. This was faster than the preliminary estimate of 0.2%. It also exceeded economists' average forecast for 1.2%. Quarter-on-quarter, without annualisation, the GDP increased by 0.3%. This was in line with the median forecast of 0.3% growth and was compared to the initial estimate of 0.1%. Capital expenditure by businesses rose 1.3% during the fourth quarter. This is the biggest increase since October-December of 2023. The initial estimate was revised upwards to a 0.2% increase, beating economists' expectations of a 1.1% rise. The preliminary data showed a 0.1% increase in private consumption. This is a small change from the 0.3% rise reported earlier. Exports less imports was unchanged from the initial data that showed no contribution to GDP. The revised data shows that domestic demand contributed 0.3 percent points to GDP, up from a zero contribution. The growth in the fourth quarter followed a contraction of 2.6% in July-September, and an expansion of 2.4% in April-June. After the revisions, the size of Japan's nominal economy was 663.8 trillion dollars (4.20 trillion yen) in 2012. The data released on Tuesday revealed that household spending in Japan fell by 1.0% from a year earlier. This is bad news for private consumption. Sanae Takaichi, Japan's Prime Minister, said that the country will take steps to reduce gasoline prices in order to cushion the impact of the rising fuel costs due the conflict with Iran. The Bank of Japan is not changing its tone on increasing interest rates, if the economy continues to grow in line with its forecasts. However, Governor Kazuo Ueda said that the Middle East conflict could have a negative impact on global growth.
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Alexander Butterfield, White House assistant who exposed Nixon's tape-recording system at age 99, has died
Alexander Butterfield died aged 99. He was the White House aide that revealed Richard Nixon's "secret audio recording system" and provided the "smoking weapon" in the Watergate scandal which brought down the President. Kim, his wife, confirmed to The Washington Post & The New York Times that Butterfield had died. His revelations about the recording devices and listening devices sparked a legal battle over executive privilege. The two newspapers reported that he had died at his home in the seaside La Jolla district of San Diego a month before his 100th Birthday, but there was no mention of a cause of death. Butterfield told journalist Alicia Shepard that he did not like being called the person who revealed the existence of these tapes, because it implied he had "eagerly" and "breathlessly" informed the Watergate committee. Butterfield, a native of Pensacola in Florida who grew up California, attended UCLA and joined the U.S. Air Force before joining in 1948. He served as a combat aircraft during the Vietnam War commanding a squadron tactical reconnaissance aircraft. Later, Butterfield served as the military assistant of a senior Pentagon official. This job gave him exposure to the White House. Butterfield left the Air Force in order to join the White House Staff as the deputy of Nixon's Chief of Staff, H.R. Haldeman was an old UCLA friend. Butterfield was responsible for keeping an historical record of the president, including overseeing the installation of voice-activated tape?system. Butterfield was already in his new job as the Federal Aviation Administration's top official when the investigation into the break-in of the Democratic Headquarters at Watergate Building on June 17, 1972 began to heat up. Butterfield was one of a few people in the White House who were aware of the recording system. When he learned that he would face questions from the Senate Watergate Committee (officially known as the Select Committee on Presidential Campaign Activities), Butterfield decided not to tell a lie or volunteer any information. In a private session, a Republican staff attorney of the committee asked him if there was a recording system at the White House. Butterfield reluctantly admitted that there was. KEY QUESTION The same question was asked by Fred Thompson, the counsel for the Republicans in the Senate committee, who would later become a senator and actor, on July 16, 1973. After a long silence, Butterfield replied, "I am aware of listening devices. Yes, sir." The nation was stunned by the news that Nixon had actually recorded what he said, to whom and when. Butterfield confirmed that the system secretly recorded conversations and meetings within the Oval Office and Nixon's Executive Office Building office, the Cabinet room and four White House phones. He said the purpose of these recordings was historical. Butterfield, in a 1975 interview for People magazine said Nixon had often forgotten about the recorders. He also disregarded the advice to destroy them because he didn't think the Watergate scandal would ever reach the point where he was required to hand over the tapes. Butterfield, speaking of his deceased former boss in 1994, said: "I am sure that he hated me as much or more than anyone else could." He stated that he believed Nixon should have resigned sooner. He said, "I'm not upset about the resignation of the president." "Not at all." The role of NIXON is revealed Nixon's undoing was a recording that Nixon made six days after Watergate. It was the "smoking-gun" which proved he knew about the cover-up. Nixon was heard agreeing with a plan that would have the investigation into the Watergate break-in halted due to national security concerns. Nixon's public and political support was waning as the U.S. Supreme Court rejected White House claims about executive privilege. He resigned in August 1974 rather than face an impeachment trial and Senate trial. Butterfield, who was not involved in the cover-up or break-in, was never charged. However, his friend Haldeman, who was also a Nixon insider, would be among the many Nixon insiders to go to prison as a result of the scandal. Bob Woodward's 2015 book, "The Last of the President's Men", which helped to break the Watergate scandal, was a focus on Butterfield. He provided Woodward thousands of documents that he had removed secretly from Nixon administration office. Butterfield's documents and interviews portrayed Nixon as a strange, resentful man who was isolated and isolated. Butterfield claimed he was often the target of hostility by Nixon loyalists. He told Time magazine how long-time Nixon Secretary Rose Mary Woods had called him a "son a bitch," who "destroyed" the greatest leader the country has ever had. Butterfield was Oliver Stone's adviser on the 1995 film "Nixon", and played a White House employee in a cameo appearance. Butterfield's marriage to Charlotte Maguire ended in divorce in the year 1985. He had also dated Audrey Geisel before, the widow of children's author and illustrator Theodor Seuss Geisel (better known as Dr. Seuss). Bill Trott (reporting, writing and editing; Steve Gorman contributed additional reporting in Los Angeles; Diane Craft edited)
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Petrobras refuses to accept additional diesel orders because Brazilian prices are below global market
Four sources with knowledge of the situation have confirmed that Brazilian state-run Petrobras has refused to?accept requests from fuel distributors requesting additional diesel volumes, as domestic prices are falling?to record discounts compared to global levels. Petrobras is the largest supplier of fuel in Brazil and the data indicates that the diesel sold by the company is currently 85% less expensive than imported fuels. This is due to global prices rising because of the U.S. Iran conflict. Sources claim that the disparity between the two diesel prices has a negative impact on the booming agricultural sector of the country during the harvest season. Petrobras sells only the diesel that is contractually required to its distributors. A?company source said the firm will not sell more so distributors can stock it up and make money when the state-run oil company raises the price. Source: "We can't give out more diesel to distributors so they can buy cheaply now and profit later," said the source. Magda Chambriard, CEO of Petrobras, said that the company doesn't pass on short-term volatility to the consumers. She also stated last week that the company is still evaluating the new oil prices before making any adjustments. The Middle East conflict's first and most immediate impact on Brazil's agricultural sector would be a spike in diesel prices. This would increase costs for farmers harvesting record soybean crops and planting corn. Sergio Araujo is the head of Brazilian fuel importers' association Abicom. He said that Petrobras, which produces around 55% diesel in Brazil, has a huge influence on fuel prices. Araujo stated that the steep discount is causing buyers to turn away from private refiners and imported cargos. This has reshaped fuel flows, and created logistical strains which are leading supply imbalances. SOUTHERN BRITAIN EMERGES WITH SUPPLY TENSIONS Farmers in Rio Grande do Sul have reported difficulty in obtaining fuel. The state has two refineries, and diesel is normally plentiful. ANP, the oil regulator, said that it will investigate the complaints of rural producers regarding supply shortages during peak harvest. ANP reported that it contacted major suppliers on the weekend, and found that Rio Grande do Sul "has enough stocks to ensure regular supply of diesel." Araujo explained that the problem is not a lack of diesel, but rather buyers who want to buy at the current Petrobras price, while sellers ask for higher prices in order to protect themselves against potential costs in the event the state-owned firm changes its prices in the next few weeks. Araujo said that sellers believe they will have to pay more for restocking. Petrobras didn't immediately respond to a comment request. (Reporting by Marta Nogueira and Rodrigo Viga Gaier in Rio de Janeiro, writing by Fabio Teixeira)
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Venezuelan acting government sends mining bill to legislative
Venezuela's acting government sent Monday a mining regulations?proposal?to the country's ruling party controlled national assembly. This is the 'latest salvo' in a package of 'U.S.-backed' changes that are'meant to open up the economy for foreign investment in minerals and oil'. Since a January U.S. raid which captured President Nicolas Maduro in Venezuela, the administration of U.S. president Donald Trump has backed a series moves by acting president Delcy Rodriguez aimed at attracting investors and stabilizing the country. Trump has repeatedly praised Rodriguez for "cooperating" with the U.S. The draft law that has been seen but not yet made public, repeals the 1999 Mining Regulation Law, allows both foreign and domestic companies, to exploit gold, diamonds, and rare earths, and increases concessions by 20 years?to 30 years. According to the draft which creates a new tax calculation for mining projects, mineral?deposits will remain the property and ownership of the state. Due to the socialist party's majority in the legislature, the law is likely to be approved. U.S. Interior Secretary Doug Burgum, during his visit to Venezuela the previous week, struck an optimistic tone about 'the law.' He said that it would?create opportunities and that Rodriguez had promised to ensure their safety. The U.S. issued an authorization the day after Burgum concluded his visit to Venezuela, authorizing certain transactions involving Venezuelan gold. This license allowed transactions with state-owned Minerven and their subsidiaries as long as contracts were governed by U.S. law. Rodriguez has praised a recent oil reform that lowered taxes, increased the decision-making power of the oil ministry, and granted autonomy to private producers among other measures as a template for mining changes. Reporting by
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Trump considers other measures to cool down oil prices, including easing Russia sanctions
Multiple sources claim that Donald Trump may announce an announcement as early as Monday evening to curb the soaring global oil prices in light of the conflict with Iran. According to multiple sources, the White House is concerned that the spike in oil prices after more than a week of U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran could hurt U.S. consumers and businesses ahead of November's midterm elections when Trump and his fellow Republicans hope they can retain control of Congress. Two sources familiar with the situation said that Trump was in Florida to address congressional Republicans who were gathered at an annual retreat. He would be expected to consider his options by Monday. The White House has added a press event to Trump's Monday schedule at 5:30 pm, but did not provide any details as to whether or not he would make an announcement. Analysts and officials in the oil industry have stated that the White House does not have many tools to curb the rising price of oil unless it can restore the flow of tanks through the Strait of Hormuz. This narrow waterway connects Iran with Oman and carries a fifth of world's supply of crude. One of the sources who has been working with the White House to implement the initiative said, "the problem is that options?range from being marginal or symbolic up to being deeply unwise." Trump is sensitive to the turmoil on energy markets, as it comes at a time when he has been trying to?keep fuel prices low' in order to send a strong economic message. The rise in fuel and oil prices could have a ripple effect on the economy and increase consumer and transportation costs. RUSSIAN SANCTIONS According to sources, reducing sanctions against Russia was one of the policy options. This could boost oil supplies in the world at a moment when Middle East shipments are being disrupted by the growing conflict with Iran. This could complicate U.S. attempts to deny Russia revenue from its war in Ukraine. Three anonymous sources said that such a move would include a broad relief of sanctions as well as targeted options which would allow countries like India to purchase Russian oil without worrying about U.S. penalties. Kirill Dmitriev, the special presidential envoy for investment in Russia, wrote on X that he and the U.S. were discussing lifting U.S. oil sanctions. He added that "Western sanctions are detrimental to the global economy." The White House stated that any announcements on Russia policy would be made directly by Trump or members of his team. U.S. officials have been in separate discussions with counterparts of the Group of Seven countries about a potential joint release of crude from strategic reserves. Energy Secretary Chris Wright confirmed Monday that the U.S. was considering coordinating the sales of oil from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve. However, no decision has been made. The U.S. is not considering "imposing restrictions on the exports of U.S. Energy as a means to control prices," he added. Trump has other policy options, including intervening in the oil futures market, waiving some federal taxes, and lifting restrictions under 'the Jones Act', which mandates that domestic fuel only be transported on ships flying the U.S. flag, according to sources who spoke on condition of anonymity. Trump says 'a very small price' to pay. In a Sunday post on the social media platform Truth Social, Trump downplayed a price spike, saying it will only be temporary. He said that only "fools" could see it differently. The White House stated that Trump has a solid game plan to keep energy markets stable, and is reviewing credible options. Since the U.S.-Israeli strikes began on February 28, global crude oil prices are at levels they have not been seen since mid-2022. Gasoline and other fuels costs have also risen. Last week, the White House asked federal agencies for proposals to help ease pressure on gasoline and crude oil prices. Sources said that top White House officials are involved in the discussions, including White House Chief Staff Susie Wiles, and Stephen Miller as top advisor. The White House's plan to provide backstop insurance and naval escorts for tankers travelling the Strait of Hormuz has so far failed to increase shipping through this vital waterway. (Reporting and editing by Will Dunham; Additional reporting by Nandita BOSE in Miami; Will Dunham, Nick Zieminski, David Gregorio).
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The US stock market is worried about the rising oil prices
U.S. investors are apprehensive about the sudden rise in oil prices, which could cause an economic shock and further damage to equities. Investors continue to gauge the economic and market impact of the U.S. - Israeli war on Iran. Michael Reynolds, Glenmede's vice-president for investment strategy, said that the news was a "shock". It's a surprise, and both investors and the public are trying to understand what this means as it unfolds. The Federal Reserve may be hesitant to lower interest rates if the Federal Reserve is concerned about rising inflation. Higher gas and oil prices will increase costs for energy-intensive businesses, reduce discretionary budgets and erode consumer discretionary spending. Oil and stock prices dropped sharply on Monday after President Donald Trump told CBS News that his war against Iran was "very completed." Investors said that as they assessed the possible end of the conflict, they would be watching to see what Iran and Israel will do and how much energy will flow through the Strait of Hormuz. This is a crucial chokepoint. MARKET CORRECTION ?OR WORSE? Reynolds and other investors are scrambling for scenarios in the event that oil reaches heights not expected just days ago. Investors have pointed out that U.S. crude and Brent crude both broke over $100 a barrel on Monday, a level which could cause more stock turbulence. The commodities reached a high of $120 at one time on Monday, but ended lower than $100. U.S. oil was trading at $83 per barrel after Trump's remarks. U.S. crude was settled at $67.02 on February 27, which was the last session prior to the U.S. and Israeli strikes. Stock?volatility is on the rise. On Monday, the Cboe Volatility Index topped 30 for nearly a full year. It was below 20 at the end of February. The declines in U.S. stock prices have been modest compared to those of other regions. However, the S&P 500 benchmark was down 2.6% since its all-time high late January. Major equity indices finished higher on Monday, after falling steeply earlier in session. Yardeni Research strategists said on Tuesday that they were expecting a 10% correction in the stock market. In a note published on Sunday, the firm stated that "we can't exclude a bear market and even a possible recession." OIL AND STOCKS - A Tighter Link Oil prices are on the rise, and the movements have become more closely linked to the stock exchange. According to LSEG, the 20-day correlation of S&P 500 with U.S. Crude stood at -0.813 on Monday morning. This is a strong inverse relation that indicates they tend to move in opposite direction. In a Monday note, Deutsche Bank strategists were assessing whether the Iran situation would prompt a greater risk-off movement. They said that the oil shock was "among the most serious in history," and that investors have priced in "a shorter rather than a protracted conflict." Stock investors, who typically think of oil and stocks as two separate markets, have historically followed oil's price trajectory closely, particularly after extreme price movements. A jump in oil prices over $120 per barrel in early 2022 coincided with a decline in stock values. Stock investors were concerned in 2015-2016 that the low price of U.S. Crude Oil, which dropped below $30 per barrel, was a sign for a general economic slowdown. Pain at the Pump for Consumers The focus is once again on the economic implications of rising oil costs. According to JPMorgan's economists, each 10% increase in oil prices will translate into a drag of 15 to 20 basis points on the GDP growth. The JPMorgan economists stated in a recent note that the effects could also be non-linear. Higher oil prices spikes would result in an even greater hit to the growth. JPMorgan economists, along with other analysts, warned that the economic impact would depend on how high crude prices remain. The price of gasoline is currently rising due to the increase in crude oil. According to AAA, the national average price of gasoline increased to $3.48 a gallon Monday from $2.902 one month earlier. The?group reported that this is the highest price since summer 2024. Kevin Gordon, Charles Schwab's head of macro-research and strategy, said that oil prices were "as visceral" as filling your gas tank. In fact, the shares of companies that are most dependent on discretionary expenditures could be among those most susceptible to rising oil prices. Morningstar says that fuel costs account for 20 to 25 percent of airline unit costs. The S&P 1500 index for passenger airlines is down by about 11% since the war began. One HEADLINE away from a Reversal? Investors are cautious about the future, as Monday's events?underlined. Larry Adam, Chief Investment Officer at Raymond James Wealth Management, said in a Monday note that the firm anticipates the conflict will be "relatively brief." The firm kept its price forecast for U.S. Crude at $55 to $60 per barrel by the end of the year. Investors also keep in mind how Trump changed his stance on policies that are market-sensitive during his tenure. It was the softening of Trump's blanket "Liberation Day", tariff policies in April last year that led to a sharp rise in asset prices. Gordon stated that "we're just one headline away from this all reversing aggressively in a very aggressive manner." (Reporting and editing by Colin Barr; Additional reporting by Chuck Mikolajczak, Siddharth Cavale, and Lewis Krauskopf)
JSW suspends talks on restructuring with unions
The Polish coal miner JSW suspended important restructuring talks with unions on Tuesday, it said. This put a government-backed plan for rescue and vital funding into doubt, after what the company called a "significant" change in the unions’ stance.
Why it's important
JSW is unable to obtain the 3 billion zlotys (854 million dollars) of liquidity it requires for 2026. This puts the European Union's largest coking coal producer in financial danger as losses continue to mount.
CONTEXT
After media reports about comments made by Wlodzimierz?Czarzasty, a left-wing Polish politician and speaker of the lower house of the?Polish parliament?
Czarzasty - who is also the leader The New Left - one of the parties in the current ruling coalition – called for the ruling alliance to discuss JSW’s “very difficult” situation on Tuesday, citing the "poor" management, according to the?Polish Press Agency.
BACKGROUND
State-controlled miner struggles with low demand, increased competition by cheaper imports and high operating costs. It reports a 7.24 billion Zloty net loss for 2024.
The fragmented system of "dozens" of unions has historically complicated talks.
What's Next?
JSW announced that its management would be analyzing "alternative restructuring forms".
The report said that the deal collapsed despite Grzegorz Werona, Deputy Minister of State Assets, having attended talks a day before. $1 = 3.5116 Zlotys (Reporting and editing by Matt Scuffham in Gdansk)
(source: Reuters)