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How long can iron ore and coking coal survive amid the tariff chaos? Russell

In the wake of U.S. president Donald Trump's tariff war, iron ore has performed better than other commodities such as crude oil and copper.

Iron ore futures trading on the Singapore Exchange closed at $99.54 per metric ton Monday. This is a three-month high and down 4.1% compared to the close of $103.77 on April 2, when Trump imposed tariffs against U.S. trade partners.

The Singapore contracts reflect a large number of views from market participants other than China. China buys around three quarters of global seaborne ore, and produces just under half of all steel in the world.

Even China's domestic Iron Ore Futures at the Dalian Commodity Exchange are holding up. They have lost just 3.6% from April 2 to Monday’s close of $762.50 ($104.31).

Brent crude futures fell 14.1% between April 2 and Monday's closing price of $64.36 per barrel, which is a four-year-low. London-traded contracts for copper also dropped 10%, ending at $8.732 per ton.

China is the largest buyer of crude oil and copper in the world, but unlike ore they have a wider investor base that tends to reflect market dynamics and sentiment more quickly.

Iron ore's performance is still at odds with Trump’s announcement of 34% tariffs on U.S. imported goods from China last week, on top of the 20% already imposed.

The volatile U.S. President doubled down Monday and threatened an additional 50% tariff on imports coming from China. Beijing had responded by imposing a 34% duty on its own imports of goods from the United States. It also imposed export controls on several minor metals that are critical for defence and technology.

If the tariffs are implemented, China's exports will be subject to a 104% tax, which could have the effect of stopping all trade between two of the largest economies in the world.

OUTLOOK DARKENS

It's difficult to argue that iron ore is going to continue to perform better than other commodities. In fact, it would be easier to imagine it performing worse.

Steel consumption in China is directly related to manufacturing, which accounts for 25% of the total demand.

Beijing must decide whether it will act decisively to stimulate the parts of the economy that are affected by tariffs, as well as other sectors which may not be so exposed but can still contribute to overall economic growth.

It is a question of whether China's efforts to stimulate its economy, through sectors like infrastructure and consumer spending for manufactured goods, will be sufficient to maintain steel demand at a relatively high level.

Iron ore prices should also rise if steel production and demand continue to increase.

The data from March, collected by commodity analysts Kpler, suggests a solid but not spectacular result.

China imported 102.1 millions tons of iron ore from Australia in March. This is up from the 84.36 in February. However, that month's total wasn't as high as expected due to weather disruptions.

Kpler data shows that the March figure is only marginally below the 104.9 millions tons of the same month 2024.

The other important steel raw material, metallurgical coke, has shown a more subdued response to the tariff war.

Singapore Exchange contracts that track the price for metallurgical coking coal from Australia - the world's largest exporter of this fuel - have actually increased, rising 5.9% since the close of April 2, to $186 per ton.

The price increases are due to weather-related disruptions that have occurred in Queensland, Australia, which is home to most of Australia's metallurgical mines.

China's coking-coal contracts fell 3.1% between April 2 and Monday's close of 971.50 Yuan per ton, which may be a better indication of demand concerns that have emerged amid the uncertainty surrounding tariffs.

These are the views of a columnist who writes for.

(source: Reuters)