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Gold drops as Fed rate hikes and higher Treasury yields weigh
On Wednesday, gold fell for the third session in a row as?U.S. Treasury yields, as well as growing bets on the Federal Reserve raising interest rates, weighed down on gold. As of 0849 GMT spot gold was down by 0.8% to $3,974.75 an ounce, after reaching its lowest level since November last year at $3942.99 in the previous session. U.S. Gold Futures for August Delivery lost 1.3%, to $3.987.70/oz. On Tuesday, the yellow metal recorded its first quarterly loss in 2024. The benchmark 10-year yield rose as high as 9 basis points on Tuesday, before easing off its peak. On Wednesday, yields were up again by 4 basis points at 4.465%. This was higher than the increase in euro zone bonds yields. Bullion is less affordable to overseas buyers due to a stronger dollar. The market is pricing in more rate increases for this year because of comments made by Fed's Hammack. Beth Hammack, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, said Tuesday that she might advocate for higher interest rates if inflation continues to rise. CME FedWatch shows that traders expect a rate increase of 67% by September. Staunovo said that the expectation of more hikes is not helping investment demand. ETF holdings saw renewed outflows over recent days. The Fed may change its policy direction based on the June ADP employment report, which is due at 1215 GMT. The markets will also be watching the annual conference of the European Central 'Bank in Sintra on Wednesday. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, and ECB -President Christine Lagarde both have speeches scheduled. Geopolitically, there are concerns about the prospects of U.S. diplomacy with Iran after Teheran announced it would not be meeting senior U.S. officials. Envoys travelled to the region following the recent outbreak of violence. Spot silver dropped 1.4% to $57.75 an ounce. Palladium fell 1.4% to $1,187.01, down from its lowest level since November. Palladium fell 1.4% to $1187.01. (Reporting and editing by Harikrishnan Nair in Bengaluru, Noel John from Bengaluru)
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Zelenskiy: Ukraine strikes Russian oil refinery, missile component factory
Ukraine has hit a Russian refinery in Ufa for the second consecutive time, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, the president of Ukraine, said on Wednesday. Kyiv is intensifying its strikes in Russia. "Our plan to impose Ukrainian long-range sanction is being implemented every day," Zelenskiy said, referring the Ukrainian attacks deep within Russian territory. "This is a completely just response to everything Russia does against us." Zelenskiy reported that a strike was also carried out on a Russian military-industrial complex he described as "strategic", located in the Penza area, which he claimed made components for missile weapons used by Moscow to attack Ukraine. He said that the site was located about 600 kilometers from the frontline. The Ukrainian General Staff identified the plant as belonging to Roscosmos, a Russian state-owned space corporation. The company said that it produces sensors for cruise missiles and ballistic rockets, components for aircraft electronics, and equipment to support reconnaissance satellites. General Staff reported that two?bridges were also struck in Russian-occupied areas of Ukraine's Donetsk, Luhansk and Donetsk regions as well as the logistics crossing in Donetsk. Analysts say that Ukraine's increased?attacks on Russian military supply lines is part of an ongoing campaign to target Moscow’s logistics behind the frontline. This effort has helped slow down its war machine, after more than four years of conflict. Ukraine's Defence Ministry said that Ukraine's troops hit 11 oil refineries as well as fuel logistic facilities, military factories and other targets in the month of June. Ukraine's SBU security service?also said it had struck hangars housing Russian jet fighters on an airfield in Crimea that?Russia annexed in 2014. Zelenskiy announced last week that he approved a campaign of 40 days to "influence" Russia into ending its five-year war with Ukraine. (Reporting and editing by Andrew Heavens, Sharon Singleton, and Anna Pruchnicka)
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Fuel prices in Nepal are reduced as global prices fall
Nepal has lowered fuel prices up to 17 percent, according to an official statement released on Wednesday. The Himalayan nation reacted to the fall in global prices after progress was made?towards a peaceful resolution of the war iin 'Iran. The sole distributor and importer of fuels in Nepal, the state-owned Nepal Oil Corporation, has reduced retail prices for petrol, diesel and cooking gas. It said that jet fuel prices have dropped by 14.8% for domestic flights from Kathmandu and by 14.47% for international flights from Pokhara. Prices have fallen sharply since recent highs, as fears of supply disruptions in the Middle East waned amid hopes that U.S. and Iranian peace talks would help maintain a fragile ceasefire. Brent and U.S. West Texas Intermediate are both close to the levels they reached on February 27, just before the U.S. and Israel war against Iran began. Brent closed that day at $72.48 a bar and WTI at $67.02. NOC stated that the'movement was a result of lower fuel supply prices received by Indian Oil Corp on Tuesday. Indian Oil Corp is?the lone?supplier to Nepal. It said that the improvement in fuel prices on the global market was to blame. New rates are effective as of Wednesday. Nepal raised petrol and diesel prices?in April,?and began rationing cooking gases in?March because of supply disruptions caused by the Iran War. Nepal, wedged between India and China is completely dependent on fuel imports. (Reporting and editing by Aftab Ahmad, Raju Gopalakrishnan and Gopal Sharma)
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Two killed after wildfire ravages house in Northern Greece
The fire brigade reported that two people died after a wildfire destroyed a house in a 'forested settlement' in northern Greece. Local media reported that the fire started in bushland Tuesday afternoon, and was fanned quickly by strong winds. It engulfed a house located near the village of Liti, about 25 kilometers (16 miles) north of Thessaloniki. Fire brigade reported that they found a dead man near the fire as they extinguished it and saw another body inside the home. The same area was also the location of a woman who suffered?burns. Authorities told residents to evacuate their'settlement' and move to a nearby playing area. Scientists consider Greece and other Mediterranean countries to be wildfire hotspots due to the fast-warming climate. Fires are more destructive in the summer months when it is hot and dry. (Reporting and editing by Elefterios papadimas, Angeliki Koutantou)
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Aluminium prices fall to four-month lows as Gulf risk premium declines
Aluminum prices fell to their lowest level in four months on Wednesday as investors unwound risk premiums associated with the Gulf, despite new uncertainty surrounding U.S. diplomacy towards Iran. As of 0715 GMT the benchmark 'aluminium' for three months on the London Metal Exchange was down 0.73% to $3,063 per tonne, after hitting a four-month-low at $3055.50 earlier during the session. On Tuesday, it posted its largest quarterly and monthly drops in years. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's most traded aluminium contract tracked the LME. It closed daytime trade at 22,370 Yuan ($3,292.47) per tonne, down 0.95% from its six-month-low of 22,245 Yuan. The London benchmark fell by almost 16% in the month of June as the risk premiums for metals?light?were reduced amid the Iran War, despite the fact that shipments through the Strait of Hormuz - a region which accounts for 9% of the global aluminium production - remained low. Iran announced on 'Tuesday' that it will not meet with senior U.S. representatives who have travelled to the area, thereby reducing the chances of a lasting peace agreement. Iranian officials said that both sides need to sort out the details of the ceasefire agreement signed two weeks earlier before they can move on to more difficult issues. The most traded SHFE contract fell 0.56%, while the LME three-month copper contract lost 1.10%. U.S. Job Openings reached a 2-year high in May, indicating that labour demand was resilient despite the softer hiring. Investors focused on inflation and the possibility of U.S. rates staying high for longer. This supported the dollar. Copper losses were capped by signs of a?continued growth in China's industrial sector. The RatingDog China General Manufacturing PMI slipped to 51.7 from 51.8 in may, but remained above the 50-mark that separates growth from contraction. The average PMI for the second quarter was the highest since the fourth of 2020. This was due to sustained growth in new orders and improved labor?market conditions. Nickel slid by 0.38%, tin fell by 2.30% and zinc dropped 1.30%. The SHFE saw zinc gain 0.64% while lead fell 1.09%. Nickel also declined 0.63%, and tin was a smidgen higher at 0.07%. ($1 = 6.7943 Chinese Yuan Renminbi)
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Dengue outbreak in Bangladesh as weather-related aids spread
Health experts have warned that dengue cases could increase sharply in Bangladesh over the next two month due to wet weather conditions and poor mosquito control. In recent weeks the spread of the disease has accelerated, raising concern after the country's deadliest outbreak ever in 2023. According to data from the health ministry, dengue deaths increased from one in May to 18 at the end June. Meanwhile, reported infections increased by more than eightfold from 714 to 5,924. Professor Kabirul bashar, an entomologist from Jahangirnagar University, said that he expects dengue cases to double in 'Dhaka in July compared to June and triple or quadruple by August. "But the biggest challenge will likely be outside of the capital where several districts face a?risk?of a much steeper increase in infections." In 2023, over 321,000 people will have been infected. 1,705 of them will die. In 2024, Bangladesh had 101,214 dengue infections and 575 fatalities. Dengue is a threat to the country as it deals with?its biggest measles outbreak in decades. More than 100,000 suspected cases, and more than 10,000 confirmed infections, have been reported since mid-March. The death toll has exceeded 700. This puts additional pressure on an already fragile healthcare system. Bashar stated that heavy rainfall, high temperatures, and humidity created the ideal conditions for dengue transmission. Mosquito control has not kept up with this growing threat. He called on the government to establish a national 'early warning system' to identify mosquito breeding areas and hotspots that are rising, so authorities could respond quicker and warn communities. He said that the window for containing the outbreak was closing. (Reporting and editing by Kevin Buckland; Ruma Paul)
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Mike Dolan's notes for the week: ROI-Youth, Task Forces and AI Debt
The news flow has been relentless in the week that has passed, reflecting on the madness of the first half of 2026 as well as the 250th Anniversary of the U.S. This week's column is a little different. It's a look at a few issues, some related to the main story and others not. 1)?YOUTH BURDEN OR BOON? Many investment houses have been pondering the reasons why America is now the world's largest economy. Morgan Stanley strategist Andrew Sheets, citing Gordon Wood's book "Empire of Liberty" from 2009, which chronicles the early Republic, argued that chaos and volatility were transformed into an economic catalyst thanks to the country's openness, adaptability, and capacity for renewal following repeated crises. In 1810, approximately 70% of Americans were younger than 25 years old. The population was a fraction and life expectancy far less than today, but this figure captures a youthful vigour and youth that is hard to match. Sub-Saharan African nations such as Uganda and Niger are close behind, with 70% of their population under 25 years old. Although emigration is more prevalent than immigration in these countries and life expectancy is below world averages, can sheer youth lead to better economic prospects? Many economists disagree, arguing the world today is different than the labour-intensive economy of the early nineteenth century and that the youth dividend might not be as it was. The Centre for Economic Policy Research, co-authored by Nobel Laureate Daron Acemoglu, found that lower birthrates in the last few decades were associated with higher GDP per working-age adult growth across countries as well as stronger wage growth within U.S. commuter zones. This had no negative effect on aggregate GDP or earnings. They argue that this is a response by the technology and innovation to a shortage of young workers. They add that countries and regions with lower rates of birth show more patents for labour-saving technologies and a growing high-tech industry. It is not the overall population growth, but the decrease in the younger populations. A brave new world indeed - and another hat tip to the current market obsession. What is the advice? The focus of attention on the new Federal Reserve chair Kevin Warsh is on his reaction to the market expectation that the next move for Fed interest rates will be up. Warsh is more likely to be focusing on the "task forces" that he established last month in order to study the workings of the central bank and the conduct of monetary policies. One story in the Wall Street Journal that many may have missed was that Warsh had appointed veteran Fed staffers Daniel Covitz, and Eric Engstrom to be his key advisors. Everyone wants to know their thoughts and what they have been working on. Perhaps a guidance skeptic, like Warsh, was attracted to Engstrom’s work about the pitfalls in the Fed’s quarterly economic and interest rate projections. The pair's latest joint paper was published in February and dissected the elevated Treasury forward rates. They concluded that this outsized jump in rates for long-dated bonds was more rooted in fiscal concerns rather than inflation or fears about Fed credibility. The Fed website says Covitz is currently researching "Asset bubbles" and "Stability of Short Term Credit Markets". These are timely topics for a central banking institution that wants to keep up with the AI craze in some parts of financial world. Engstrom's work on "Stock-Bond Comovement", "Corporate Profits and Entrepreneurship" and other topics, meanwhile, shows how the big themes of this year may influence policy. 3) BROKEN CYCLE? The stock prices of big AI beneficiaries are soaring. This year, the most obvious ones were chip makers and computing equipment manufacturers. But what looks like a buoyant midyear ?for top-line stock market indexes masks the angst over AI's potential losers, mainly the software-as-a-service sector. Matthew Savino of Carlyle wrote in a recent note that one way to look at this is the rising borrowing premia?for these companies in the leveraged loans market. Software spreads are nearly twice as high as the broad index. Early in the year, they jumped by nearly 300 basis points and haven't returned since. Savino cites two points that stand out. Savino says that two points stand out. About 85% of the debt is B-minus, or below, and debt maturing between 2028 and 29 has a weighted average of 79 cents per dollar. More than half of this debt trades at less than 90. It is obvious that companies and creditors must work together to resolve these debts. This leads us to the second point. Most workouts for rolling or extending debts involve higher spreads or pay-in kind coupons, or other sweeteners in order to keep borrowers whole. These assume that the economy will recover in a cyclical fashion over time. For some firms, AI disruption can be existential. This complicates debt relationships that were previously flexible and increases anxiety among those who are most affected. Savino concluded that "in the context of secular distress, and high uncertainty regarding terminal value, time may be an enemy if financial degradation is rapid in the business at hand." It's about time to get interesting. The opinions here are those expressed by Mike Dolan, columnist at. You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn and X. 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As boards dream of takeovers, mega-deals are driving record M&A.
LSEG data shows that a surge in mega-deals of $10 billion or more drove global M&A levels to record levels during the first half 2026. Some companies took advantage easier regulatory environments to pursue their dream deals. The value of the announced deals grew by 48% year-on-year to $2.8 trillion, the highest total for the first half of the year since LSEG began recording in 1980. The number of deals announced in 2026 fell by 9%, to 24,000 - a six year low. LSEG data revealed that 47 deals above $10 billion accounted for more than $1.3 trillion, and nearly 50% of the global volume. This was a record. Jay Hofmann is the co-head for mergers and acquisitions at JPMorgan in North America. He said that financing "is available at different sizes" and allows companies to acquire assets they need "to navigate the change and position themselves for the future". Ivan Farman is the co-head of Global M&A for Bank of America. He said that the strong momentum in the upper end of the market and the lesser momentum in the lower end reflects the growing belief that a $1 to $3 billion transaction "takes as much time as larger ones, so when a chance to make a large transaction arises, businesses see this as an opportunity to act." Bankers say investors place a high premium on the size and focus of a company. Farman said that "bigger companies with bigger moats, and a greater competitive advantage, trade at better multiples than small companies." The CEOs and management are actively pursuing long-held dream deals. Some dealmakers are so optimistic, despite the geopolitical turmoil that they believe the activity could surpass the post-pandemic M&A peaks of 2021. They expect companies to take advantage of the fewer regulatory hurdles. Bankers report that the Trump administration is receptive towards large U.S. mergers. European policymakers are proposing a rewrite of rules in order to create local champions. Cash-rich Japanese corporations are expected to make more deals in Asia. This is due to proposed revisions of Japan's Governance Code that emphasize the need to efficiently use cash. Morgan Stanley's Jan Weber, the head of Morgan Stanley's mergers and acquisitions for Europe, Middle East, and Africa said, "Momentum behind the scenes has started to accelerate over the past six weeks, with a growing portfolio of cross-border strategic deals." "It seems like many indicators are green for more M&A, and boards feel they need to take action." Weber said, "I do believe we are moving towards the next peak." Ed Wittig said that companies are focusing on growth. He is the co-head for Asia?Pacific mergers? acquisitions at Goldman Sachs. He added that there was a lot of enthusiasm for synergies and the markets reward those who execute well. Bankers reported a record number of corporate separations driving dealmaking, as companies sought ways to adapt to changing industry dynamics. Examples include Comcast's planned spinoff NBCUniversal and Honeywell's split into three. The market has become more conservative in its approach to businesses with a high degree of diversification. Previously, investors praised diversity as a means of reducing risk. However, today, they are wary of it because of the complexity that comes from this and the lack of focus on management's part. TECHNOLOGY DOMINATES The first half of the year saw a plethora of financing for acquisitions. Global?investment grade corporate debt issues reached $3.4 trillion. This is a 10% year-on year increase and the highest total year-to date since LSEG began keeping records. LSEG data shows that technology remained the most active sector in global dealmaking, with $649 Billion of transactions announced in the first half. The U.S. is a prime example of this. The other side is the HALO, which includes heavy assets, low-obsolescence, large infrastructure, and a big?industry. This will continue regardless of AI's impact, said?Sam Newhouse. In the first half 2026, cross-border M&A amounted to $893 billion. This is up 62% on the previous year and represents the best start of the year since 2018. Cross-border M&A reached $893?billion in the first half of 2026, up 62% from a year ago and the best start since 2018. Kirshlen Moodley is the head of UK M&A at BNP Paribas. (Reporting from Anousha Sakoui, Echo Wang and Kane Wu respectively in London, New York and Hong Kong. Editing by Alexander Smith).
Ecotourism helps revive mangroves in a Filipino surfing location
Del Carmen Mangrove Reserve is a new Ramsar Site
Siargao is awash with illegal fishing and mangrove cutting
Ecotourism and behaviour change are key to protecting the mangroves
By Mariejo Ramos
He was once an illegal fisher, who cut down tropical woody trees for fuel. Now he protects them in a civilian patrol force.
We were forced to sell and cut mangroves because life was hard back then. "We couldn't find another job," Longos said.
Workers like Longos are now part of the solution because the local government has been working to provide job training and cultivate an ecotourism enterprise.
He proudly pointed out a mangrove baby he planted along the water.
The mangroves in the area were reduced for decades by destructive fishing techniques like dynamite use and illegal deforestation to make wood for bread or charcoal.
According to the local authorities, through replanting, the Del Carmen Mangrove Reserve has grown from 4,200 ha of mangroves to more than 4,800 ha.
The Ramsar Convention on Wetlands (an international treaty named for the city in Iran, where it was signed, in 1971) that guides conservation of wetlands throughout the world, designated the reserve as a Wetland Reserve of International Importance in August 2024.
Longos patrols the mangrove reserve from its viewing platform, earning him an honorarium each month of 9,000 pesos ($158). He uses his fishing boat to give paid tours of the mangrove reserve in his spare time.
Del Carmen Mayor Alfred Coro says the stories of small town fishermen like Longos shows that even communities with limited resources can stop environmental destruction.
He said that gaining the support of people through education, ecotourism opportunities and training is more important than policing.
Coro said that for a long time, previous leaders in Del Carmen had been told it was impossible to persuade people to stop illegal mangrove harvesting and illegal fishing.
He said that it took a decade for them to convince people of the importance of mangroves and to stop using illegal methods.
He said that he was limited in financial resources and the majority of his efforts were done through dialogues between fishermen at their homes, as well as community-based campaigns to inform people about mangrove conservation.
The local government started the tours, and now they are run by fishing groups. The tour fee is divided between the fisherman and his group, which amounts to about 600 pesos per trip.
The town has been preparing for growth in tourism and development since last year when it was awarded the Ramsar certification.
In 2023, more than half a millon tourists will visit Siargao, the highest number ever recorded. They are attracted to the impressive waves and surf spots in the area, which have been popular since the 1980s, when the sport began gaining popularity.
SUSTAINABLE TOURISM
Researchers fear that more visitors to Siargao could put strain on the natural resources of the island and cause waste problems such as plastic and marine debris.
The Asian Development Bank found that an increase in Siargao waste is "attributable" to the surge of tourists.
The study found that sustainable tourism could be implemented to protect marine life and support local incomes.
Del Carmen's municipality has encouraged its residents to make money through eco-tours, and to take care of mangroves to ensure that tourism will support the community for a long time.
Longos, a fisherman from the Philippines, was taught about mangroves' science and encouraged to participate in campaigns and replantings for their protection. Coro said that when they first started, "they had doubts."
Since 2014, hundreds of illegal fishermen and mangrove cutters have become tourism operators. The town offers 100 ecotrips a day, says a local tourism official.
These tours are staffed by guides, boat captains, and assistants.
Coro said, "You can tell how much their lives have improved."
The mayor stated that developing alternative sources of income has ripple effects on the local economy.
Del Carmen, which was a town of the Philippines with the lowest level of income as a fifth-class municipality, became a third class municipality this year.
Local government data revealed that the average monthly family income in Del Carmen increased from 2,000 pesos (34.95 USD) in 2010 up to 17,000 pesos (297.05 USD) in 2024. The poverty rate also decreased from 69% to 21% in 2010.
The income of the town from tourism grew from 1.2 millions pesos (about $21,000) in 2020, to 9.2million pesos (about 160,381) by 2024.
Longos says that by fishing legally and guiding ecotours he has been able to send all four of his children to school.
Gina Barquilla said ecotours prevent overfishing, which may destroy mangroves habitats, because the income from tours encourages people to spend less money catching fish.
A Task for the Community
Barquilla said that mangroves in Siargao (a teardrop-shaped island) helped to protect the area from a powerful typhoon 2021. They also lessened the impact of strong waves and the rising sea level for coastal fishing villages.
She has spent more than 10 years educating illegal fishermen and mangrove cutters at home and chasing dynamite fishing boats on the sea, despite threats and harassment.
In rare cases, such as in February, fishermen have been arrested for using dynamite against schools of fish.
She said that the best strategy is to go out and educate the local communities about the importance of mangroves, conservation and science.
She and other ecotourism activists said that generations of families have survived off the money made from cutting mangroves. Therefore, educating youth is crucial, they said.
(source: Reuters)