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Japan's June core inflation increases, but remains below BOJ target

Japan's core price inflation rose in June, but it remained below the central bank's target of 2% for a fifth consecutive month. This suggests that firms have not yet aggressively passed on rising input cost to consumers.

Analysts expect that consumer inflation will accelerate in the second half of this year, as the recent spike in producer prices, fueled by the rising cost of fuel and imports from the Middle East conflict, and the weakening yen, filters through to the rest the economy.

Analysts say that the yen's decline to its lowest level in four decades is likely to increase inflationary pressures and maintain market expectations of future interest rate increases by the Bank of Japan.

Sarah Tan, an economist with Moody's Analytics, said that the inflation outlook is heavily dependent on what happens in?the Middle East? and its impact on global commodities prices.

The concern is that nominal wage increases may not keep up with inflation. This will impact real wages and consumer spending. "A renewed depreciation would intensify imported inflation."

Data showed that the core consumer price index (CPI), excluding volatile food prices, increased 1.6% from a previous year in June, a rise that was in line with market expectations and faster than the 1.4% increase seen in May.

This is partly due to the effect of the sharp drop in gasoline prices last year, caused by government subsidies.

The data revealed that food inflation declined due to the falling price of rice. Meanwhile, service inflation fell to 1.2% in June from 1.4%, despite gains in wages.

The BOJ closely monitors an index that excludes volatile fuel and fresh food, which is a better measure of inflation. It rose by 1.7% from a year ago in June after rising 1.8% in May.

Next week, the central bank is expected to examine the data at its policy meeting and announce new?quarterly forecasts.

Marcel Thieliant is the Asia-Pacific head at Capital Economics. He said that there are no clear signs that BOJ's fears about inflation risks are becoming a reality.

"Producer price inflation accelerated in recent months," the Bank said. The Bank's concern about inflation risks will not have diminished as crude oil prices approach their recent highs - and the yen falls to new lows against the US dollar.

The producer price index jumped 7.1% in June, the fastest rate in over three years.

The BOJ increased?interest rates in June to a high of 31 years, a milestone in its policy normalisation. It was a sign that it is ready to tighten even more as it concentrates on taming the price pressures caused by the energy shock caused by the U.S. and Israeli war against Iran.

(source: Reuters)