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Japan's Q4 GDP increases on the back of robust business investment

Japan's Q4 GDP increases on the back of robust business investment
Japan's Q4 GDP increases on the back of robust business investment

Revised data revealed that Japan's economy has grown faster than originally estimated during the last three months of 2025. However, the Middle East conflict is still a factor in determining the outlook for growth.

Gross domestic product (GDP), which is the sum of all goods and services produced in a country, grew by 1.3%. This was faster than the preliminary estimate of 0.2%. It also exceeded economists' average forecast for 1.2%.

Quarter-on-quarter, without annualisation, the GDP increased by 0.3%. This was in line with the median forecast of 0.3% growth and was compared to the initial estimate of 0.1%.

Capital expenditure by businesses rose 1.3% during the fourth quarter. This is the biggest increase since October-December of 2023. The initial estimate was revised upwards to a 0.2% increase, beating economists' expectations of a 1.1% rise.

The preliminary data showed a 0.1% increase in private consumption. This is a small change from the 0.3% rise reported earlier.

Exports less imports was unchanged from the initial data that showed no contribution to GDP. The revised data shows that domestic demand contributed 0.3 percent points to GDP, up from a zero contribution.

The growth in the fourth quarter followed a contraction of 2.6% in July-September, and an expansion of 2.4% in April-June. After the revisions, the size of Japan's nominal economy was 663.8 trillion dollars (4.20 trillion yen) in 2012.

The data released on Tuesday revealed that household spending in Japan fell by 1.0% from a year earlier. This is bad news for private consumption.

Sanae Takaichi, Japan's Prime Minister, said that the country will take steps to reduce gasoline prices in order to cushion the impact of the rising fuel costs due the conflict with Iran.

The Bank of Japan is not changing its tone on increasing interest rates, if the economy continues to grow in line with its forecasts. However, Governor Kazuo Ueda said that the Middle East conflict could have a negative impact on global growth.

(source: Reuters)