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BOJ's Ueda warns that temporary energy shocks could become persistent

Kazuo Ueda, the Governor of the Bank of Japan, said on Wednesday that central banks shouldn't merely rely on oil prices because a temporary energy spike can persist if it affects wages, expectations and pricing behavior.

Ueda compared the various energy shocks Japan has experienced over the years. He said that the same increase in oil prices can have different effects on wages and expectations, on demand, on currency rates, and on other factors depending on how they are initially impacted.

He said that if inflation expectations are high, and wages are increasing, there is a risk of a second-round effect. However, he added, a cost shock may not increase expectations for inflation if they are low, and wages stagnant.

Ueda said, "The boundary between temporary and persisting inflation is not mechanical." Ueda spoke at a BOJ and the Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, a think tank that the BOJ has created.

As a result of the Middle East conflict, rising oil prices have increased inflationary pressures in Japan's economy. This has led BOJ officials and markets to expect an interest rate hike as early as next month.

"A temporary shock may become persistent?if it alters wages, expectations and price-setting behavior. Ueda added that a large shock could remain temporary if these channels are not activated. (Reporting and editing by Christian Schmollinger, Shri Navaratnam, and Leika Kihara)

(source: Reuters)