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Oil prices continue to fall due to oversupply and US demand concerns

After a big drop in the previous session, oil prices dipped on Friday due to concerns over a possible softening in U.S. consumer demand. This was offset by worries about disruptions in supply from the conflict in the Middle East.

Brent crude futures dropped 30 cents or 0.45% to $66.07 per barrel at 0114 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude fell 31 cents or 0.5% to $62.06.

In the last trading day, benchmarks fell by 1,7% and 2% respectively.

The International Energy Agency, in its latest monthly report, said that the world's oil supply will rise faster than expected due to the planned production increases by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC+), a grouping of countries including Russia.

OPEC's own report did not change its high growth predictions for global oil demand in 2025 and 2026. It said that the world economy is still on a steady growth path.

OPEC+ announced on Sunday that it would increase its oil production quotas starting in October, as Saudi Arabia, the group's leading member, tries to regain market shares.

Saudi Arabian crude oil exports are expected to increase, according to several sources on Thursday. The state-owned energy company Aramco shipped about 1.65 millions barrels of crude oil per day to China in October. This is a sharp rise from the 1.43 million barrels of crude oil per day allocated to China in September.

Analyst Giovanni Staunovo at UBS said that the market was questioning for how long China could continue to absorb barrels and maintain low Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development inventories (OECD). Investors were also keeping an eye on any further sanctions affecting Russian crude oil.

The IEA reported that in Russia, which is expected to be the second largest producer of crude oil behind the U.S. by 2024, revenues from the sale of crude and petroleum products declined in August, reaching one of their lowest levels since the beginning of the conflict in Ukraine.

Two sources familiar with the plans said that Russia intends to reduce ESPO Blend oil loads from its Far East Kozmino Port in September from 4.2 millions tons to 4 million metric tonnes (about one-million barrels per day), from 4.2million tons in August.

The U.S. consumer price index in August rose by the highest rate in seven months. A surge in the number of first-time unemployment aid applications last week raised expectations that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates in the coming week. This could increase economic growth and the demand for oil.

A report released by the Energy Information Administration on Wednesday showed that U.S. crude oil stocks increased last week, rising by 3.9 millions barrels to 424.6million barrels. Reporting by Sam Li in Beijing and Lewis Jackson in New York, with editing by Tom Hogue.

(source: Reuters)