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Documents show that EU countries want to keep Russian gas withdrawal plans secret.
A document internal to the EU, seen by, shows that European Union governments would like Brussels to keep secret their plans to stop using Russian oil and natural gas by 2027. Last month, the European Commission proposed legislation to phase-out EU imports from Russia. A part of this would require countries produce national plans outlining measures and timelines on how they will achieve this. A draft document of the negotiations showed that EU governments are currently negotiating this proposal and have requested the Commission to keep these plans secret. The document was drafted by Denmark, which currently holds the rotating EU Presidency and is leading negotiations between EU countries. The plan should also include "an explanation of the intended national or regional measures to reduce demand and encourage renewable energy production, as well as any technical, contractual, or regulatory barriers that may hinder diversification." Some countries may not want to share sensitive information about their plans for sourcing fuel from non-Russian sources or information that could impact gas prices. The document stated that while countries would still have to submit their plans for approval to Brussels, they would be required to maintain "professional secrecy", which would prevent the information from being disclosed to anyone else or any authority. The Commission's proposal did not confirm whether the plans will be kept secret. A spokesperson for the Danish EU presidency declined comment on the talks. Diplomats from EU countries will review the document in the coming week. EU diplomats say that the negotiations are still in their early stages and haven't yet addressed issues such as potential legal risks to companies who break their Russian gas contract. Slovakia and Hungary continue to import Russian gas by pipeline. They opposed the Russian Gas Ban, which Brussels designed to be passed legally without their support. Slovakia, however, has stated that it will not approve new EU sanctions against Russia for its war in Ukraine (which require unanimous approval by all 27 EU member states) unless the concerns about gas supplies are addressed. The ambassadors of EU countries are expected to discuss the package of sanctions on Friday. Robert Fico, the Prime Minister of Slovakia, said that on Thursday it was still unclear whether or not the EU has addressed Slovakia's concerns over high gas prices and its demands for compensation due to a halt in Russian gas imports. Last week, European Commission officials visited Bratislava to discuss the concerns of the government. Fico stated, "At this time, we refuse vote for the 18th set of sanctions." Kate Abnett is the reporter. Jan Lopatka contributed additional reporting. Mark Potter (Editor)
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Trump's tariffs - What is in effect now and what might be coming?
Donald Trump, the U.S. president, has started a global war of trade with a variety of tariffs targeting individual products and nations. Trump has set an initial tariff of 10% for all imports into the United States. He also imposed additional duties on specific products or countries. Here is a listing of the targeted tariffs that he has implemented, or has threatened to implement. TARIFFS ON PRODUCTS ARE IN EFFECT Steel and Aluminum - 50% Automobiles and auto parts: 25% TARIFFS ON PRODUCTS - A THREAT Copper - 50% will take effect on August 1 Pharmacies - Up to 200% Semiconductors with a 25% or greater content Movies – 100% Timber and lumber Critical Minerals Aircraft, engines, and parts COUNTRY Tariffs in Effect Canada - 10% for energy products and 25% for all other products that are not covered by the U.S. Canada-Mexico Agreement Mexico - 25% on products that are not covered by USMCA China: 30% with some additional tariffs United Kingdom – 10% with certain auto and metal imports excluded from the higher global rates Vietnam - 20% on certain products and 40% on transshipments of third country products COUNTRY TARIFFS TO TAKE EFFECT ON AUGUST 1, Algeria 30% Bangladesh 35% Bosnia and Herzegovina 30% Brazil 50% Brunei 25% Cambodia 36% Indonesia 32% Iraq 30% Japan 25% Kazakhstan 25% Laos 40% Libya 30% Malaysia 25% Moldova 25% Myanmar 40% Philippines 20% Serbia 35% Sri Lanka 30% South Africa 30% South Korea 25% Thailand 36% Tunisia 25%
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Climate Prediction Center predicts ENSO neutral conditions for August to October with a 56% chance.
The U.S. Climate Prediction Center said that El Nino and Southern Oscillation neutral conditions will be likely in summer 2025 in the Northern Hemisphere, with 56% of the chance occurring in August to October. Climate Prediction Center stated that neither El Nino nor La Nina is likely. The CPC stated on Thursday that the chances of La Nina conditions increasing into the fall and Winter 2025-2026 are comparable to ENSO neutral, but will remain similar. Why it's important El Nino is the warming of ocean temperatures on the surface in eastern and central Pacific. This can cause crop damage, fires, or flash floods. La Nina is a part of El Nino and the Southern Oscillation, which affects the water temperatures in central and eastern Pacific Ocean. La Nina causes cooler water temperatures which increases the risk of droughts and floods. This can have an impact on crops. When ENSO neutral, water temperature stays around average, leading to better weather and possibly higher crop yields. CONTEXT The Japan weather bureau stated that the normal weather patterns continue and that the La Nina phenomena is likely to emerge in autumn of the Northern Hemisphere. The National Weather Service of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has forecast above-normal activity for hurricanes in the Atlantic basin during the 2025 season. KEY QUOTES The neutral ENSO will continue until at least the end the year. The odds of transitioning to El Nino or La Nina is rather low. However, the odds of La Nina being slightly higher than El Nina, as we move closer to fall and winter, said Donald Keeney. The ENSO neutral conditions will increase planting and yields for corn/soybeans, both in the U.S. and South America. However, they may lower expectations for wheat in Australia.
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Gold firms as safe-havens amid rising trade tensions
The gold price edged higher on Thursday, as traders flocked to bullion in response to rising trade tensions. However, gains were capped by a rise in the dollar. By 1307 GMT, spot gold had risen 0.4% to $3326.48 an ounce. U.S. Gold Futures rose 0.4% to $3335.10. Daniel Pavilonis is a senior market strategist with RJO Futures. He said, "I believe that the entire metals complex has gone up due to the knock-on effect of the tariffs on copper." "However there are limited upsides unless a geopolitical escalate occurs." On Wednesday, U.S. president Donald Trump launched another tariff attack, announcing new tariffs of 50% on U.S. imports of copper and 50% on Brazilian goods, both starting on August 1. In a recent note, Paul Wong, Market Strategist, Sprott Asset Management, said that gold is "gaining in popularity among emerging economies, who see its counterparty-free properties as appealing in a world weighed down by geopolitical risks." Minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting in June showed that only "a few" officials felt rates could be cut as early as this month. Most policymakers are still worried about the inflationary impact they expect from tariffs. The U.S. Dollar index rose 0.2%, limiting the price increase. When the U.S. Dollar strengthens, gold tends to lose its appeal as it becomes more costly for investors who hold other currencies. The number of Americans who applied for unemployment benefits dropped unexpectedly last week. This suggests that employers are holding onto workers despite signs of a cooling of the labor market. Silver spot rose by 1.4%, to $36.62 per ounce. Wong said that if you break above $35, it increases your chances of reaching $40. Palladium rose 3.5%, to $1144.40, while platinum gained 0.3%, to $1350.95.
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Rivers in southwest China exceed warning levels and thousands are evacuated
State media reported that 25 rivers in southwest China were above safe levels after the remnants from former typhoon Danas combined with East Asian Monsoon Rains. More than 10,000 people had been evacuated. Meteorologists attribute extreme rainfall and severe floods to climate change. They pose a major challenge as they threaten to overwhelm the ageing flood defences and displace millions. Beijing Daily, a state-run publication, reported that heavy rains hit the capital as well. One area of the Chaoyang district received 68.2mm (2.7") in just one hour, on Thursday morning. The water ministry warned that ten rivers in the southwest, including Longyan which flows through densely populated Chongqing region, could rupture their levees and embankments at any moment, according to broadcaster CCTV. It added that the remaining 15 were above the level at which their banks could be blown up, but still posed a lower risk. The broadcaster reported that more than 24 hours torrential rainfall had pushed the Chishui River in Guizhou Province to its highest level since records began in 1952, and the Xiaocao River, in Sichuan Province, was at its highest for 29 years. State media reported that more than 10,000 people had been evacuated from cities of Sichuan province and Yunnan province on Wednesday, as monsoon rains from East Asia pushed northward from India. Xinhua reported on Thursday that two people were killed by torrential rainfall in Yunnan’s Zhaotong City. Beijing's health authorities have warned that the combination between frequent downpours and high temperatures, as well as humidity, increases the risk of food and water contamination. Reporting by Joe Cash & Ethan Wang. Clarence Fernandez, Mark Potter and Clarence Fernandez edited the report.
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Copper traders are looking to Chinese buyers after Trump's tariffs
Global copper traders offer cargoes to Chinese customers as they try to unload metal that is no longer able reach the U.S. by President Donald Trump's deadline for a 50% tariff on copper. Trump announced late Wednesday that he will impose a new tariff on August 1, to encourage domestic production, from semiconductors to ammo. He did not specify which copper products will be affected or whether any exceptions will be considered. China is the largest copper consumer in the world. The number of overseas sellers' offers has increased since late June, and now is at its highest level for months, said a Chinese copper dealer who spoke under condition of anonymity. A second China-based broker said that he had received a bid for a cargo of 1,500 metric tons from South America, due to be delivered in late July or early august by a buyer who was "eager to locate a home." The increase in the offers to China shows how traders who spent months shipping cargoes to the United States to prepare for the tariff must now start to look for alternative destinations to ship their cargoes that cannot cross the border of the United States before the tariff takes effect. Logistics sources say that only copper from Latin America, which is currently being loaded or is already on its way, is likely make the deadline. And even then, it will be very close. Albert Mackenzie is a copper analyst with Benchmark Mineral Intelligence. He said that if Chilean material was being released to go to Europe, because the U.S. is receiving less, it would mean that everyone is benefiting. You might also see this in Asia. According to a copper trader based in Singapore, the Yangshan Copper Premium, or bill of lading, a benchmark that measures what Chinese buyers are willing to pay over the LME price for copper outside China, dropped 5% on Thursday to $62, reflecting the current offers. They added that major international trading houses offer thousands of tons originally intended for the U.S. to Chinese buyers for delivery between late July and early August. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's most traded copper contract fell for the fifth consecutive day on Thursday. It dropped 0.4% to 78.600 yuan (10,952.87 dollars) per ton, after reaching its lowest level since June 23.
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MP Materials surges on mega deal to boost US magnet supply
MP Materials has signed a multi-billion dollar deal with the Department of Defense to build a rare earth magnet factory. The U.S. is looking to reduce its dependence on foreign sources for this critical input. Shares of the company have risen by 41% during premarket trading. The DoD is buying $400 million of preferred stock, and also receiving a warrant from the company, which will make it the largest shareholder. China's restrictions in April, which impose a virtual monopoly in the refining and processing of rare earths, caused a drop in exports of rare earth magnets by 75% last month. Later, the U.S. signed an agreement with China to accelerate rare earth approvals. In March, U.S. president Donald Trump invoked emergency powers in order to increase domestic production of vital minerals that are used across the economy. This was part of an effort to counter China's near total control of this sector. MP Materials announced that it will construct its second magnet production facility in the U.S. - the 10X Facility - at a location yet to be determined, for defense and commercial customers. The company stated that the facility should be operational by 2028. The DoD agreed to a NdPr floor price commitment of $110 per kilo for the product that is being stored or sold. Metal NdPr can be used to produce magnets for wind turbines and electric motors. A 10-year agreement will also be signed by the defense and commercial sectors to purchase all magnets. MP Materials plans to expand its heavy rare earth separation capability at Mountain Pass, a California facility. It will receive a loan of $150 million from the Defense Department. Rare earths is a grouping of 17 metals, used in the production of magnets for electric cars, cell phones and other electronic devices.
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UAE ready to boost oil production if market demand arises
United Arab Emirates' energy minister stated on Thursday that the country could increase its oil production after 2027, if the market demands it. This move could push the country into the top five oil producing countries in the world. OPEC granted the UAE a larger production quota for this year. The country argued that it was restricting too much its output after investing heavily to increase capacity from 3 million barrels to 4,85 million. Suhail Mohamed al-Mazrouei, Energy Minister of the country, told reporters that capacity could increase further after 2027. He said that if the market demanded it, they could go up to 6 million. However, this was not an officially set target. The UAE could cover just under 6 percent of the global demand if they were to reach this level. It will also be the fourth largest oil and liquids producer on the planet, only behind the United States of America, Saudi Arabia, and Russia. These countries can produce around 21 million barrels, 12 millions, and 10-12million respectively. The UAE will surpass the oil production of Canada, China and Iraq in 2024 with a 6 million barrel per day output. (Reporting and writing by OPEC Newsroom, Dmitry Zhdannikov, editing by Mark Heinrich & Tomaszjanowski)
Oil prices fall as investors consider the possibility of US intervention in Iran/Israel conflict
Oil prices fell on Thursday, as investors were hesitant to make new investments after U.S. president Donald Trump's mixed signals about the country's possible involvement in the ongoing Israel/Iran conflict.
Brent crude futures dropped 37 cents or 0.48% to $76.33 per barrel at 0110 GMT, after rising 0.3% during the previous session, which was marked by high price volatility. Prices fell as much as 2.7%.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude for July dropped 28 cents or 0.37%, to $74.86 per barrel. It had risen 0.4% the previous month despite a drop of up to 2.4%.
The August contract, which is more active, was down 21 cents or 0.29% to $73.29 per barrel.
Tony Sycamore said that traders are still waiting to see if the next step in the Israel-Iran conflict will be a U.S. military strike or peace negotiations.
Sycamore stated that the former could cause prices to increase by $5, while peace talks may lead to a decline of about the same magnitude.
Trump told reporters on Wednesday that he could decide to have the U.S. join Israel's missile attacks against Iran. On Thursday, the conflict entered its seventh day.
Analysts say that direct U.S. involvement in the conflict would escalate the conflict and increase the risk of an attack on the energy infrastructure.
Iran is OPEC’s third largest producer. It extracts about 3.3 millions barrels of crude oil per day. The Strait of Hormuz is a vital waterway that transports 19 million barrels of oil per day (bpd) and its products. There are widespread concerns about the impact of the fighting on trade.
The U.S. Federal Reserve held interest rates at the same level on Wednesday, but penciled in two rate reductions by the end the year. Jerome Powell, the chair of the Federal Reserve, cautioned that rate cuts will be "data dependent" and said more consumer inflation was expected as a result of President Trump's import tariffs.
Lower interest rates could stimulate the economy and increase demand for oil. However, this could also lead to an increase in inflation. (Reporting and editing by Christian Schmollinger; Colleen howe)
(source: Reuters)