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OPEC's modest cut to 2024 oil demand does not reflect weak China: Russell

OPEC's modest cut to its global crude oil need forecast for 2024 still leaves the producer group with a quote that will require an extraordinarily strong 4th quarter.

The Company of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). lowered its projection for demand development this year to 2.11 million. barrels daily (bpd) in its monthly market report released on. Monday.

This was down 140,000 bpd from its previous estimate, and. OPEC referred to softening expectations for China's oil demand. growth in 2024.

But the information of OPEC's newest forecast still reveals that it. expects China's demand growth to be far more powerful for the entire. of 2024 than it has been up until now this year.

OPEC anticipates China's oil need will increase by 700,000 bpd in. 2024, which implies that the world's biggest crude importer will. represent one-third of the international boost.

The August forecast for China's need development is just 60,000. bpd below OPEC's previous price quote.

This is a relatively little adjustment and suggests that if OPEC. is to be proved appropriate, China's demand will have to rise. sharply in coming months.

This is since China's imports of petroleum have been. weaker over the very first seven months of the year.

Authorities information released recently revealed crude oil imports. dropped to 9.97 million bpd in July, the lowest daily. given that September 2022, and below June's 11.3 million bpd.

For the first seven months of the year crude imports were. 10.90 million bpd, down 2.9% from the 11.22 million bpd over the. exact same period in 2023.

This indicates that China's oil imports are about 320,000 bpd. lower in the first seven months of 2024 compared to the very same. duration in 2015.

It's difficult to reconcile the drop in oil imports with OPEC's. still fairly bullish projection for China's 2024 oil demand. development.

Naturally, imports aren't the only factor in total demand,. the others including domestic oil production, movements in. inventories and net exports of refined fuels.

But imports form the huge part of China's total demand and. it will be their performance that determines whether OPEC's. forecast can be satisfied.

China doesn't disclose movements in crude oil and item. inventories, however a quote can be made by subtracting the. volume of crude processed from the overall oil available to. refineries from imports and domestic output.

On this basis China has added about 900,000 bpd to. stocks in the first half of this year, which suggests it isn't. drawing on them to satisfy demand growth.

Domestic oil production was 4.39 million bpd in the very first. 6 months of 2024, up 1.9% or about 150,000 bpd from the exact same. period last year.

Nevertheless, the increase in domestic oil output will worsen. the supply-demand imbalance coming from the softness in. China's crude sector.

CHINA RECOVERY?

The question is whether a healing for the remainder of the. year is likely.

China's economy is still not shooting on all cylinders, with. the essential building sector struggling, manufacturing indexes. revealing contraction and retail sales growth relieving.

While the fourth quarter might finally see some financial. acceleration on the back of Beijing's stimulus efforts, it's. unlikely to be enough to boost oil demand to the level of OPEC's. expectations.

If OPEC's modest cut to its global need forecast for 2024. isn't enough, it ends up being more likely it and its allies in the. broader OPEC+ group will postpone their plans to wind back some of. their output cuts from October onwards.

OPEC+ last month validated a plan to begin unwinding the. most recent layer of output cuts of 2.2 million bpd from. October, however likewise stressed that this procedure may be paused or. reversed if required.

Unless China's oil demand does amaze to the benefit in. coming months, it's most likely that OPEC+ will choose to exercise. its caveat on the planned boost in production from October.

The opinions revealed here are those of the author, a writer. .

(source: Reuters)