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Study says India's export engine is facing carbon headwinds due to the tightening of net-zero regulations
A study released on Thursday by Net Zero Tracker (a coalition of Oxford-based research groups) showed that India's exports were becoming more vulnerable to climate risks. Over two-thirds of shipments outbound are now subject to stricter net-zero regulations. According to Reserve Bank of India data, India exported goods worth $824.9 Billion in 2024-25. Exports made up about a fifth (or more) of India's gross domestic product. Carbon border adjustment mechanisms (tariffs on greenhouse gases associated with the production of certain imported products) are being implemented by the UK and European Union to tighten their carbon policies. Net Zero Tracker stated that "high carbon emissions are quickly becoming a trade threat and India's exported are already being pressured to decarbonise." "For India, it is clear that the challenge lies in maintaining and growing export competitiveness as well as reducing embodied emission across sectors." According to Net Zero Tracker, coal is responsible for nearly three-fourths of India's electrical grid. This increases emissions in both goods and services including the IT and professional service sectors. According to the study, rival exporting nations are supplying the exact same markets with up to 20 times greater efficiency in carbon terms. This is largely because of cleaner energy systems. India is currently negotiating with its key trading partners including the UK, the U.S. and Canada. Carbon border adjustment mechanisms set to come into effect in Europe by 2026 could impose tariffs for carbon-intensive imports. This would threaten India's ability to access these markets, according to Net Zero Tracker. India has committed to reach zero net emissions by 2070. Earlier this year, it released a draft taxonomy for sustainable finance to direct investment to low-carbon industries. Before the COP30 Climate Summit in Brazil, this November, a new national emission-reduction goal is expected.
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Lynas Rare Earths Q4 revenues beat estimates; enters magnet agreement with JS Link
Lynas Rare Earths, based in Australia, beat expectations for the fourth quarter revenue on Thursday. This was due to a higher average selling price of all rare earth products. It also announced that it had signed a deal with Korea's JS Link for magnet manufacturing. Barrenjoey reports that the world's biggest producer of rare Earths outside China reported sales revenue of A$170.2m ($112,33m) for the third quarter ending June 30. This is up from A$136.6m a year ago and beats Visible Alpha's consensus estimate of A$155m. Lynas announced separately a deal to create a value chain for rare earth permanent magnets in Malaysia with JS Link, a Korean permanent magnet manufacturer. It said that the collaboration included plans for a 3,000 ton neodymium-magnet manufacturing facility near Lynas advanced materials plant in Kuantan. Lynas is supplying light and heavy rare-earth materials to support the production. However, this non-binding contract has yet to be finalized. Lynas' average selling price during the quarter was A$60.2, compared to A$42.3, a kilogram sold a year ago. The company also flagged improved production across facilities, with quarterly production of neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr) oxide boosted by a new line at Lynas Malaysia. The total rare-earth dioxide (REO), or the amount of REO produced, was 3,212 tons for the quarter ending June 30, compared to 2,188 tons reported one year earlier.
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Raychaudhuri: Mainland China capital boom fuels Hong Kong investment boom
Hong Kong's gateway to China is strengthened by the influx of mainland Chinese investors. This investment boosts market liquidity and depth, while also strengthening its position. This capital flow could be slowed by short-term headwinds, but the market's diversification and innovation will likely propel it over time. Stock Connect, launched in November 2014 by the Hong Kong Shanghai and Shenzhen Exchanges, allowed mainland Chinese investors trade certain stocks listed in Hong Kong. This is known as "Southbound Stock Connect", while also facilitating flow in the other direction. Between 2017 and 2023, the Connect programme expanded to include interest rate swaps, bonds and ETFs. The Southbound route has seen a 32% annual compound growth rate since 2015, which was the first year the programme was fully operational. According to Hong Kong Exchange data, Southbound's average daily turnover has grown from 1.6% in 2015. to 18% by 2024. What is the EXUBERANCE all about? Since the program began, Onshore investors consistently have bought more than they sold through Southbound. This has resulted in net inflows each year. The flows were good but volatile until 2023. After that, they exploded. In 2024 net inflows were more than twice as high, and this figure was nearly equaled within the first six month of 2025. What is the reason for this interest in Hong Kong listed stocks? Geographic diversification is a major factor, since mainland Chinese investors are limited in their options for overseas assets. Investors can also look to gain exposure to key sectors, such as insurance or technology. Onshore indices do not include, for example, the leading Chinese internet platforms Tencent, Alibaba, or AIA, leader in the insurance industry, and global bank HSBC. Many stocks popular with mainland investors are listed in both Hong Kong and onshore, which again raises the question as to why capital is flowing into Hong Kong. It could be a simple matter of price. These dual-listed shares are valued at much lower prices in Hong Kong than they are in Shanghai or Shenzhen. Prior to the Stock Connect programme, the Hang Seng AH Premium Index tracked the average premium for onshore "A shares". This was 3.2%. The value of the shares soared to 34.1% as soon after. This was due to an influx of international capital into mainland Chinese stocks via Northbound Connect. Although it has decreased recently, the premium is still high. HONG KONG IMPACT Hong Kong's equity market has become more liquid and deeper due to the influx of capital. This makes it attractive for both local companies looking for new listings, and onshore Chinese firms seeking additional listings. Hong Kong was the largest IPO market in the world in the first half 2025 with a total of $14 billion, easily surpassing Nasdaq which came in second with just under $9 billion. The Stock Connect program has, at the same time, strengthened Hong Kong’s position as a renminbi offshore hub, as HKE argued. It has also driven robust cross border regulatory cooperation, including regular meetings and the exchange of ideas. RAPID ROTATION Hong Kong's markets could experience increased volatility as a result of the onshore money rush, particularly given the fact that mainland Chinese investors have historically traded in a way that involves rapid switching from one theme or sector to another. Onshore investors, for example, flocked towards the internet platforms Alibaba, Tencent and the technology giant Xiaomi throughout 2024 and 2025 only to see significant volumes sold this past May/June. Some common preferences among Chinese onshore investors, like the desire for high dividend yields could also begin to influence the relative performance in Hong Kong. CNOOC and China Construction Bank, which are both low-growth companies with high dividends, have been Southbound favorites this year. This is based on the monthly "Top 10 list". HEADWINDS FOR SHORT-TERM What could possibly derail the current exuberance? One headwind could be a possible weakening of renminbi, which would make HKD stocks more expensive to mainlanders. Chinese investors may also be discouraged from diversifying their portfolios overseas if mainland markets perform better. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index has risen 23.8% in 2025, far exceeding the Shanghai Composite index's 5.5% increase. The direction of flows could be reversed if return prospects changed. The geopolitical tensions between the United States and China are also a persistent problem. Hong Kong allows money to move in and out without many restrictions. This exposes the city to risks from political conflicts. Chinese investors may be more likely to retain their capital if a negative political outcome occurs. Most of these headwinds will likely be short-term, but the direction of travel over the long term is still clear. The Mainland Chinese savings pool is a huge reservoir of capital that has largely remained untapped. PBOC reported that the total deposits at June 2025 would be RMB 320 trillion (US$ 44 trillion). In March 2025, the total amount of overseas portfolio investments was only $1.58 trillion. This is less than 4% compared to domestic household deposits. It is likely that the capital rush into Hong Kong's markets will only get started as mainland Chinese investors continue to diversify. You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. ROI provides data-driven, thought-provoking analysis on everything from soybeans to swap rates. The markets are changing faster than ever. ROI, can help you keep up. Follow ROI and X on LinkedIn.
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First Quantum anticipates an increase in Cobre Panama Maintenance Costs
First Quantum Minerals, a Canadian mining company, said that it expects the costs of maintaining its copper mine in Panama to increase from $17 to $18 millions per month. Panama approved in May the company's Preservation and Safe Management Plan (P&SM), allowing it to export the copper concentrate that was stored on the site, as well as restarting a power station at Cobre Panama. After massive protests by local residents, the site was shut down in 2023. The mine, which contributed 1% of global copper production to the world, was shut down in 2023, and this had a negative impact on Panama's as well as the company's finances. First Quantum has begun shipping the 120,000 tons of copper that were left on the site in June. The company announced on Wednesday that the final shipment will be sent soon. This should put an end to the uncertainty surrounding the copper stockpiled. The maintenance costs for the Cobre Panama Mine averaged around $15 million per year during the second quarter. The plan allows imports of fuel for Cobre Panama to restart its thermoelectric power station, which is anticipated in the fourth quarter 2025. First Quantum stated that the increase in P&SM cost of up to $3,000,000 could be offset by selling excess power for Panama's grid. (Reporting and editing by Alan Barona in Bengaluru, Vallari Srivastava from Bengaluru)
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Texas lawmakers investigate flash flooding as death toll reaches 137
Texas lawmakers held a special meeting on Wednesday to discuss for the first-time the deadly floods which hit the Texas Hill Country in this month and killed at least 137. Senator Charles Perry is the chairperson of the joint Senate and House committee that investigated the preparations for and responses to the floods. The committee does not wish to place blame but instead seeks "constructive policies which will reduce future deaths." Texas Governor Greg Abbott put the investigation at the top of the agenda for a special session of the legislature that began on Monday. Abbott announced on his social media accounts that the death count from the flash floods of July 4, 2014, had reached 137. A man and a young girl were still missing. Nim Kidd was the first to be called as a witness by the lawmakers. He called the state's vast emergency response system fragmented. Each of the 254 counties has control over evacuating their residents. This order was not issued in the worst-hit areas of the country earlier this month. Kidd said that he would need better radar systems in his home, better communication systems to alert local leaders and residents and more resources to help residents evacuate or stay put. This high death toll is one of the most deadly U.S. flooding events in recent decades. It raises questions about the absence of flash flood warning sirens, especially in the hardest-hit Kerr County. Many people have expressed concerns about the vacancies in National Weather Service offices as a result of staffing reductions under President Donald Trump. The next meeting of the legislative committee to investigate the floods is scheduled for July 31st in Kerr County. The committee will prepare a report that will be sent to the Texas Senate and House for consideration in drafting legislation during the special session of a month. (Reporting from Brad Brooks, Colorado; editing by David Gregorio.)
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White House selects mining expert as head of National Security Office, sources say
Three sources confirmed that the White House has appointed a former mining executive as head of a National Security Council office focused on strengthening supply chain. A pared-down NSC is focusing on President Donald Trump's top priorities. Sources who spoke on condition of anonymity in order to discuss personnel matters that are not public have confirmed that David Copley is now a senior Director at the NSC. Copley was selected earlier this year to be the top mining official for the U.S. National Energy Dominance Council (NEDC), an interagency group chaired the Interior Secretary. The White House is intensifying its efforts in an arms race against China over critical minerals that affects a wide range of industries around the world. China has recently shown its power by withholding rare earth magnets from export, causing global markets to be upset and forcing U.S. government officials back at the negotiation table. Two sources stated that Copley's focus at the NSC will be on improving U.S. supply chain and increasing U.S. accessibility to critical minerals, which are vital components in advanced military technology. Unknown to the White House, Copley will oversee "international economics", a component of the NSC. Copley did not respond when asked for comment. Copley's exact title and if he had officially left the NEDC were not clear. The appointment of a mining expert to a key NSC post offers an insight into the shift in national security priorities under U.S. president Donald Trump. In recent months, the NSC was drastically reduced. The offices that oversee Africa and international organisations have also been downgraded or closed, reflecting the administration's distrust of multilateral institutions. Recently, a special forces veteran has been appointed to lead the Latin America office. This comes at a time when Trump is openly considering unilateral action against Mexican drug gangs. Trump has always been focused on obtaining vital minerals such as cobalt and Nickel. China's near total control over the industry of critical minerals has also long irked the president. Copley, a member of a group of officials, was reported to have been involved in plans to bring Greenland closer to America, primarily to gain access to its vast reserves of rare earths. One source said that Copley's mandate is "geostrategic matters" in general. Geostrategy, as a branch of international relations, is concerned with the interaction between resource wealth and security. This has particular relevance to an administration which places securing foreign resources at the center of its foreign policies. In April, the U.S. signed a massive deal with Ukraine to grant the United States privileged access to Ukrainian mineral resources. Copley, an economist by trade, is a U.S. Navy Reserve intelligence officer. He worked for the State Department on Iraq-related matters during Trump's initial term. He held previous roles at U.S. Silica, a minerals producer. Copley was a consultant for Boston Consulting Group and served as a Defense Intelligence Agency officer. Copley, who worked for Newmont in Denver until recently as a strategic developer, was the company's world-leading gold producer by production. The market value is $54 billion. (Reporting and editing by Jarrett Renshaw, Gram Slattery)
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White House selects mining expert as head of National Security Office, sources say
Three sources confirmed that the White House has appointed a former mining executive as head of a National Security Council office focused on strengthening supply chain. A pared-down NSC is focusing on President Donald Trump's top priorities. Sources who spoke on condition of anonymity in order to discuss personnel matters that are not public have confirmed that David Copley is now a senior Director at the NSC. Copley was selected earlier this year to be the top mining official for the U.S. National Energy Dominance Council (NEDC), an interagency group chaired the Interior Secretary. The White House is intensifying its efforts in an arms race against China over critical minerals that affects a wide range of industries around the world. China has recently shown its power by halting exports of rare-earth magnets. This has upset global markets, forcing U.S. officials to return to the negotiation table before changing course. Two sources stated that Copley's focus at the NSC will be on improving U.S. supply chain and increasing U.S. accessibility to critical minerals, which are vital components in advanced military technology. Unknown to the White House, Copley will oversee "international economics", a component of the NSC. Copley did not respond when asked for comment. Copley's exact title and if he had officially left the NEDC were not clear. The appointment of a mining expert to a key NSC post offers an insight into the shift in national security priorities under U.S. president Donald Trump. In recent months, the NSC was drastically reduced. The offices that oversee Africa and international organisations have also been downgraded or closed, reflecting the administration's distrust of multilateral institutions. Recently, a special forces veteran has been appointed to lead the Latin America office. This comes at a time when Trump is openly considering unilateral action against Mexican drug gangs. Trump has always been focused on obtaining vital minerals such as cobalt and Nickel. China's near total control over the industry of critical minerals has also long irked the president. Copley, a member of a group of officials, was reported to have been involved in plans to bring Greenland closer to America, primarily to gain access to its vast reserves of rare earths. One source said that Copley's mandate is "geostrategy" in general. Geostrategy, as a branch of international relations, is concerned with the interaction between resource wealth and security. This has particular relevance to an administration whose foreign policy places a high priority on securing foreign resources. In April, the U.S. signed a massive deal with Ukraine to grant the United States priority access to Ukrainian mineral resources. Copley, an economist by trade, is a U.S. Navy Reserve intelligence officer. He worked for the State Department on Iraq-related matters during Trump's initial term. He held previous roles at U.S. Silica, a minerals producer. Copley was a consultant for Boston Consulting Group and a Defense Intelligence Agency officer in the early years of his career. Copley, who worked for Newmont in Denver until recently as a strategic developer, was the company's world-leading gold producer by production. The market value is $54 billion. (Reporting and editing by Jarrett Renshaw, Gram Slattery)
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US EPA approves dicamba weedkiller for use on cotton and soybeans
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency proposed Wednesday approvals for products that contain the weedkiller, dicamba. Its use was stopped by a Federal Court in 2024. The agency argues it poses no significant risk to human health or the environment. Farmers of cotton and soybeans sprayed the herbicide dicamba to control tough weeds on crops genetically modified to resist it. Environmental groups have criticised the chemical for its ability to drift and harm nearby plants. In a 2024 ruling of the U.S. District Court, the EPA was found to have violated the public input procedure in the approval of three dicamba-containing products. The product registrations were subsequently revoked. Farmers were not able to spray dicamba onto crops this year as a result. In regulatory documents, the EPA announced that it had received new approval applications from Bayer AG BASF and Syngenta. Bayer, the company that sold XtendiMax dicamba herbicide, was happy to see the EPA open a period for public comments on its proposal. Bayer stated that the low-volatility herbicide dicamba, when used in accordance with the label, could be used safely on target. BASF has said that it will work with regulators in order to ensure that farmers are able to use dicamba. Syngenta didn't immediately respond to an inquiry for comment. In a press release, the EPA said that despite the fact that there was no risk for human health, certain plants were at risk. The agency proposes restrictions on the amount of chemical that can be used and when to mitigate this risk. Kyle Kunkler was the top pesticides official in the EPA Office of Chemical Safety and Pollution Prevention. He previously worked as a Lobbyist for the American Soybean Association. The American Soybean Association has supported allowing soybean farmers to spray dicamba. The association stated that it was reviewing EPA's proposed dicamba and that dicamba was a crucial tool for farmers.
Green hydrogen retreat threatens emissions targets
Around the globe, green hydrogen developers are cancelling their projects and reducing investments. This could lead to a longer-than-targeted reliance on fossil energy.
The sector's initial goals have been exposed as being unrealistic due to the challenges it faces.
Green hydrogen is prohibitively expensive for industries that are hard to electrify, like steelmaking and long distance transportation.
Jun Sasamura is the hydrogen manager for Westwood Global Energy. He said that the gap between European ambitions and actuality shows the magnitude of the industry's reset.
He said that only a fifth (or less) of all planned hydrogen projects in the European Union will be operational by the end decade. Westwood Global Energy data show that this translates to approximately 12 GW in production capacity compared to an EU target for 40 GW.
He added, "I don't think the EU 2030 target (hydrogen production), will be met in the current state."
Expectations Inflation
Many companies claim that the high costs of green hydrogen and the lack of demand have made many plans unprofitable.
Miguel Stilwell d'Andrade is the chief executive officer of Portuguese energy company EDP. He said: "Green hydrogen had been an inflated expectation which has now turned into a valley or disillusionment."
The demand is missing. In Spain and Portugal there are 400 million Euros ($464.2 Million) in subsidies for hydrogen, but we still need someone to purchase the hydrogen.
Ana Quelhas is the chief of EDP's Hydrogen and Co-Chair of the European Renewable Hydrogen Coalition. She said that although several projects are in advanced stages, they cannot be moved forward due to a lack buyers.
Iban Molina, a company executive from Spain, said that Iberdrola had put on hold plans to expand the capacity of a green hydrogen plant with an electrolyser capability of 20 MW, until it found buyers for more output.
In recent years, they are one of more than a dozen major companies who have cut back on spending or shelved certain projects in Europe, Asia and Australia.
Westwood Global Energy reports that companies had cancelled or delayed over a fifth (or more) of all European projects at the end of 2017.
Emma Woodward, at Aurora Energy Research said: "In the years 2020-2021, we had this vision of hydrogen being used in nearly every sector which hadn't yet been electrified.
"I believe we have realised that there are probably other, more commercially viable alternatives in many sectors." We may not need as much hydrogen initially thought.
Too Expensive
Many governments have supported the development of green hydrogen for many years. This is produced by electrolysis, which splits water using renewable electricity into hydrogen and oxygen.
Australia, Britain and Germany, as well as Japan, announced ambitious investment plans that they hoped would lower costs and create a green hydrogen industry that was profitable and would not need any support.
Minh Khoi Le is Rystad's director of hydrogen research.
Grey hydrogen is twice as costly as natural gas, as an example. This latter product is made from coal and natural gas, and is used in many industries including oil refining, ammonia production and methanol.
He added that costs could drop by 30-40% if the equipment prices fall and the supply chain is scaled up. Meanwhile, Woodward of Aurora and Sasamura of Westwood Global Energy said green hydrogen would not be competitive until then.
Wood Mackenzie, a consultancy, says that only 6 million metric tonnes per annum of low-carbon hydrogen is operational or being built in the world, including green and blue hydrogen, which are made from gas.
The consultancy estimates that 450 mtpa is required to achieve net zero emissions of greenhouse gases by 2050. The EU has pledged to reduce emissions by 55% by 2030 compared to 1990 levels, on the way to its 2050 goal.
The market is priced out of reach for buyers
The industry expected sectors like steel, oil refinement, cement, and transportation to be the first buyers. However, the demand that was expected has not materialised.
Dirostahl is a German die-forging company that makes parts for wind turbines and ships, as well as oil and gas drilling pipes. It is dependent on natural gas fired furnaces and is searching for an alternative.
Green hydrogen is too expensive. The fuel is not available for less than 150 euros per megawatt-hour (MWh), while natural gas costs between 30-35 euros/MWh.
"It just doesn't work." In practice, it's economic suicide. "We'd be totally uncompetitive", he said.
The high price of electrolysers for large-scale production is due to infrastructure bottlenecks, and the increased cost of energy resulting from new rules defining what constitutes "green hydrogen".
Some European countries have reduced their ambitions. Italy recently switched 600 million euros of post-pandemic funding from hydrogen to biomethane. In April, France reduced its 2030 target for hydrogen electrolysis by over 30% and Portugal cut its electrolysis ambitions by 45%.
Last year, the Dutch government made drastic cuts in the funds allocated for the development of green hydrogen and batteries. Instead, the climate fund was redirected to the construction of two nuclear power plants.
In Australia, several players have scaled back their projects or pulled out despite the government's support of more than A$8 Billion ($5.2 Billion).
Even projects that are moving forward face delays. Rystad analysts estimate that 99 percent of the A$100 billion projects announced in the next five-year period have not progressed beyond the concept stage or approval.
DIFFICULTIES IN INFRASTRUCTURE
Hydrogen is also difficult to store, as it requires tanks with high pressure and extremely low temperatures. It can also leak. This makes transporting hydrogen through the old gas pipelines, while waiting for new infrastructure, a risky proposition.
Spain hopes to build 2,600 km (1.615 miles) of hydrogen network, and connect it with another project. The trans-European link H2Med - from Iberian to Northwest Europe.
Arturo Gonzalo is the CEO of Spanish gas grid operator Enagas. He said that while the Spanish network will be operational by 2030, delays of up to two years may occur for other European infrastructure.
He said: "Infrastructure does not happen when the market is already booming; it's something that must be done for the market to burgeon." ($1 = 0.8617 euros) ($1 = 1.5340 Australian dollars)
(source: Reuters)