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Brazilian diesel imports surge in September as US gains Russian market share
StoneX, a consultancy, said that Brazil's imports of diesel in September reached their highest level since 2023. This was due to a sharp increase in U.S. volume to compensate for declining Russian supplies, amid high agricultural demand. Why it's important The increase in imports is a reflection of the robust domestic demand that Brazil experiences during its soybean planting season, and reflects global market shifts as a result of disruptions in Russian exports. Brazil imports about 20% of its total diesel consumption. By the Numbers In September, total diesel imports reached 1,77 billion liters. This represents a 9.4% rise on the previous year. The United States contributed 45.8%, while Russia's contribution fell to just 27%, the lowest level since March 2023. Middle Eastern producers such as Saudi Arabia and Oman contributed 19% while India provided 7%. KEY QUOTE Bruno Cordeiro said that the strong growth in imports is due to both an increase in Diesel B (mixed biodiesel), sales in Brazil, and a decrease in diesel A production (pure diesel). CONTEXT The Russian market share is declining due to the Ukrainian drone attacks against its refineries, and export restrictions that followed. After Western sanctions, Brazil had become the country's biggest diesel supplier. Diesel demand typically increases during Brazil's soybean harvest season, when the country is awash in soybeans.
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EIA: US natgas production and demand will reach record highs by 2025
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said Tuesday that the Short-Term Energy Outlook, or STEO, will show record levels of natural gas production and demand in 2025. EIA predicted that dry gas production would increase from 103.2 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in 2024, to 107.1 bcfd by 2025, and 107.4bcfd by 2026. This compares to a record of 103.6 bcfd for 2023. The agency also predicted that domestic gas demand will increase from 90.5 bcfd, a record in 2024, to 91.6 bcfd by 2025 and 2026. The EIA forecasts from September were 106.6 bcfd in production and 91.5 for demand. The agency predicted that average U.S. exports of liquefied gas would increase to 14.7 bcfd by 2025, and 16.3 bcfd by 2026. This is up from 11.9 bcfd at a record in 2024. The EIA predicted that U.S. coal output would increase from 512.1 million short tonnes in 2024 - the lowest level since 1964 - to 531.3 millions tons in 2020, before dropping to 493.6 tons in 2030, which is the lowest level since 1963. EIA predicted that carbon dioxide (CO2) emission from fossil fuels will rise from a low of 4.793 million metric tonnes in 2024, to 4.880 millions metric tones in 2025, as oil, gas and coal consumption increases. Then, the emissions would ease to 4.844 million metric tones in 2026, as oil and coal usage declines. (Reporting and editing by Rod Nickel, Emelia Sithole Matarise and Scott DiSavino)
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Mercuria Partners Group to lower Swiss tariffs by pledging US energy investments
Two people familiar with the matter have confirmed that a group of Swiss firms, including energy traders Mercuria and Partners Group, has pledged more than $6 billion to invest in U.S. Energy as part of efforts aimed at lowering U.S. Tariffs on Switzerland. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, shocked Switzerland in August by imposing import tariffs of 39% on Swiss companies. He justified them by citing the U.S. deficit in trade with the Alpine nation, which had eliminated industrial tariffs last year. Since the tariff shock in the U.S., the Swiss government and private sector have been working together to put together a package of business and investment measures that will help reduce the U.S. deficit and, with it, Trump’s tariffs. Last month, the Swiss took proposals to Washington. Mercuria and Partners Group is among the companies that are working to assist the government. The government has, for example, proposed increasing energy purchases in order to reduce the U.S. Trade Deficit. In August, senior figures from both companies accompanied Swiss officials to Washington for discussions on tariffs. Partners Group and Mercuria declined comment. One source said that Partners Group pledged to double the capacity a U.S. - Mexico natural gas network operated by pipeline operator ESENTIA as part of its North American infrastructure under proposals drafted early September. The source noted that Mercuria had revised its plans. These include new energy generation, carbon storage and capture, as well U.S. oil extraction. The person who spoke to me said that when the plans were first drafted in early September, Mercuria and Partners Group, as well as Swiss energy investments, were valued at more than $6 billion. According to a second source, the Swiss energy package that includes Mercuria Partners Group and other companies comprises investments totaling around $7 billion. According to sources, these documents were part of a larger package prepared for Swiss Economy Minister Guy Parmelin’s visit to Washington on September 5, where he would meet with Trump officials. SWISS GOVERNMENT SEEKS RAPID AGREEMENT Switzerland is still trying to negotiate lower tariffs with U.S. officials. The Swiss Economy Ministry refused to answer any questions regarding ongoing discussions. However, it did say that the Federal Council was committed to improving tariffs with the United States. "It optimised its proposal to the U.S. to achieve a quick agreement." The ministry stated that it would continue to conduct diplomatic and political exchanges in order for the tariffs to be reduced quickly. The Swiss also proposed, as reported by last month's report, the construction of gold refinery capacity in the U.S. to reduce the amount that the U.S. imports of Swiss gold. According to sources familiar with the situation, the Swiss also propose increasing purchases of U.S. defense materiel. Dave Graham and Dmitry Zhdannikov contributed to the report. Oliver Hirt contributed additional reporting. Mark Potter (Editor)
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Gold miners' investments bask in record price
Investors bet that record gold prices would drive strong margins, capital flows and shareholder returns. According to LSEG Lipper, gold mining funds are up 114% in the past year, outpacing both technology funds (up 27%) and natural resource funds (up 23.7%). According to data, gold mining funds received $5.4 billion inflows during the third quarter, which is the biggest quarterly movement since December 2009. The price of gold reached a new record on Tuesday, as the U.S. shutdown continued and demand was boosted by expectations that the Fed would cut rates this month. Gold miners have been lagging behind the bullion due to increasing costs and operational challenges in recent years. However, in 2025, record prices will boost profits and cash flow, strengthening balance sheet and providing leveraged exposure to gold rally. Trevor Yates is a senior investment analyst with Global X ETFs. He said: "Despite the rally the sector remains under-owned. This leaves room for new investors who can drive multiple expansion." We're especially positive on smaller miners, explorers and producers who offer a greater leverage over the gold price. They are also set to benefit from continued industry consolidation. George Cheveley said that strong earnings were reinforcing the cost discipline. Some miners are accelerating projects, funded with cash. This is a move which supports growth, and eliminates borrowing. Gold miner Newmont reported stronger-than-expected second quarter profits and announced a $3? Share buybacks of $3?billion were announced by Newmont, a gold miner. Barrick also beat forecasts for profits and increased its quarterly dividend 50%. Some companies have taken advantage of the current rally to raise capital via IPOs or share sales. China's Zijin Gold International secured $3.2 billion while Merdeka Gold raised $280 million. The MSCI Gold Miners Index, despite doubling by 2025, still trades with a P/E ratio of 14.3, which is below its 10-year average of 16.7. This suggests that there is room for further valuation growth. Gold companies are enjoying the best margins ever, according to Adrian Hammond, research analyst at SBG. He said that investors could find opportunities in companies who are disciplined with their cash flow and eager to reward shareholders.
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Nigeria to launch global sukuk and new loans totaling $2.8 billion
According to a Tuesday letter to lawmakers, Nigerian President Bola Tinubu asked the parliament to approve $2.3 Billion in new loans as well as to authorize the issuance a $500 Million debut sovereign sukuk. Wale Edun is the Finance Minister, Coordinating Minister for Economy and the Minister of Finance. He told an Abuja economic summit on Monday that government was focusing its attention on green bonds and diaspora bond, saying they were priced cheaper than Eurobonds. According to the Nigerian debt office chief, Nigeria could issue as much as $2.3 billion of international bonds by year's end, depending on the market conditions. Last December, the most populous African country sold its first international bonds in almost three years. However, it has yet to tap into global capital markets in 2025. Tinubu's reforms have led to a positive rating from the ratings agencies and a better fiscal situation in Nigeria. The government is hoping that investors will reward it for its reforms by lowering yields on debt issuances in the future. Tinubu said in his letter that the new funds will be used to refinance Eurobonds maturing by November and part-finance budget deficits. The letter said that the new funds would be used to refinance Eurobonds due in November and part-finance the budget deficit. The president stated that the government will issue sukuks with or without credit enhancements provided by the Islamic Corporation in order to replicate its success on domestic markets. (Reporting and writing by Camillus Eboh, Chijioke Ahuocha, Hugh Lawson, Mark Potter).
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Gold futures reach $4,000; S&P 500 declines after recent records
The major stock indexes dipped on Monday. Investors were watching political turmoil in France, Japan, and the U.S. shutdown. Gold futures also hit $4,000 per ounce, a first. Gold's rally was fueled in part by the uncertainty surrounding the U.S. government shutdown. U.S. Gold Futures for December Delivery were up 0.6% to $3,998.50 after reaching a high price of $4,009.00. Investors waited to see what happened in France where the shock occurred. You can also find out more about the company by clicking here. Sebastien lecornu, the Prime Minister of Canada, raised concerns on Monday about the fiscal outlook for Canada. The U.S. Government shutdown The major U.S. indexes are closing at record highs. This is due to optimism about the possibility of Federal Reserve interest rate reductions and artificial intelligence-related deals. Jake Dollarhide is the chief executive officer at Longbow Asset Management, located in Tulsa. Is the AI trade right or the nervous Nellies? ?... We'll find out what the answer is in the coming weeks and months." The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 71.17, or 0.15 %, to 46.623.80. The S&P 500 declined 2.72 points or 0.05% to 6,737.17. And the Nasdaq Composite rose 1338 points or 0.05% to 22,952.50. The MSCI index of global stocks fell by 1.38 points or 0.14% to 994.68. The STOXX 600 Index fell by 0.02%. The CAC 40 in Paris was the last to gain 0.1% after its biggest one-day drop since late August. President Emmanuel Macron is under increasing pressure to call snap elections. Elections to the Parliament Lecornu has a chance of holding if he resigns or even quits. Last-ditch discussions On Tuesday, I met with representatives of different parties to try and find a solution. The yield on French bonds rose by 2 basis points, to 3.59%. Investors in Japan snapped up the sale of government debt In a gesture of easing nerves after Sanae Takaichi The election of, who advocates low interest rates and high expenditure, as leader of the ruling Party triggered a sell-off of domestic bonds, the currency, and sent stocks to new records. The Japanese yen fell 0.53% to 151.15 dollars, while the euro dropped 0.44% to $1.1657. Benchmark U.S. yields are on the decline Investors waited The Fed will be holding an auction for three-year bonds and making comments in advance of its meeting this month. The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10 year notes dropped 1.8 basis points from late Monday to 4.144%. Prices of oil were lower. U.S. crude dropped 0.63% to $61.31 per barrel. Brent was down to $65.02 a barrel, a 0.69% drop on the day. Investors digested the news that the World Bank The company raised its growth forecasts for China and the rest of the region in 2025, but warned that momentum would slow next year.
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Pro-Palestinian demonstrations on Hamas' anniversary of attack draw criticism
On Tuesday, opponents of Israel's action in Gaza protested in several cities to mark the second anniversary since the Hamas attack that started the war. This was despite the denials by politicians that such marches could glorify violence. Hamas gunmen took 251 hostages and killed 1200 people in an attack on 7 October 2023. Gaza's health officials report that Israel launched an offensive against a militant Palestinian group in Gaza, which has claimed the lives of more than 67,000 Palestinians. Pro-Palestinian demonstrations took place in Sydney, London, Paris and other European cities, including Athens Thessaloniki Istanbul and Stockholm. The protests are a reflection of a change in global sentiment. Sympathy that was initially directed at Israel following the attacks on October 7, is now more towards the Palestinians. This has left Israel isolated. "TERRIBLE timing, SHOCKINGLY INSENITIVE" Pro-Palestinian demonstrators say that they aim to highlight the humanitarian crisis in Gaza, and advocate for Palestinians rights. Politicians in several countries have said that holding such protests at the anniversary of Hamas's attack, the day when Jews died the most since the Holocaust could be interpreted as a support for militant violence. Chris Minns told 2GB radio that a protest planned in Sydney was "terrible timing and shockingly insensitive". Keir starmer, British Prime Minister, said that it was "unbritish" to protest "on the anniversary the atrocities on October 7". Starmer stated that some people used the Israeli government’s actions in Gaza to "attack British Jews" for something they had no responsibility over. Since an attack on a synagogue in Britain last week, in which two men died, the concern over antisemitism has increased. Jewish communities have tightened security in places of worship. Hundreds of protesters in London waved Palestinian flags outside King's College London and chanted: "Israel is terrorist state." The march was expected to continue to other universities. Nearby, a small group of Israelis waving flags was present. Mark Etkind is a retired Londoner in his early 60s who wore a sign on his neck stating that he was a son of a Holocaust victim and opposed the genocide he described in Gaza. He called Starmer's call for students to not protest "outrageous". He said, "I've always been against genocide." "I support the students who are here actively opposed to genocide." Emily Schrader (34-year-old Israeli Journalist) who was in London called it "utterly disgusting". "I believe that there are better ways to support Palestinians rather than participating in this activity that is so hurtful and offensive and that encourages radicalism, terrorism and extremism, whether it's on campus or in Israel." On Tuesday, there were also vigils and protests against antisemitism. In Germany, mourners gathered in front of Berlin's Brandenburg Gate to place stones and photos, echoing Jewish traditions for remembrance. Israel PROTESTS PROMPTED BY HUMANITARIAN SITUATION IN GAZA Pro-Palestinian activists in the Netherlands painted red on Amsterdam's Royal Palace to protest against the decision of the city mayor who banned a pro Palestinian rally but allowed a pro Israeli event. A protest is expected in Turkey outside an energy firm over its exports of products to Israel. Demonstrators in Sweden were expected to welcome Greta Thönberg, a climate activist, and other members of the Gaza aid flotilla that Israel had detained back home. After days of protests, the authorities in Bologna have banned the pro-Palestinian rally, citing a risk of unrest. Enrico Ricci told journalists that the demonstration would be prohibited. In the past two years, millions of people around the world have participated in protests and marches against Gaza's dire humanitarian conditions. The governments have to strike a balance in allowing the right to demonstrate and protecting Jewish communities, who feel targeted by the protests. They have also reported an increase in antisemitic attacks since the attack on October 7. (Written by Sam Tabahriti, Additional reporting by Catarina demony in London, Charlotte van Campenhout and Inti Landauro, in Brussels, Jonathan Spicer, in Istanbul. Editing by Kate Holton Timothy Heritage Peter Graff
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Sources say that traders are seeking yuan payments from Indian state buyers who purchase Russian oil.
Sources in the trade said that traders offering Russian oil are now asking Indian refiners to make payments in Chinese Yuan. They see recent signs of improved relations between New Delhi, China and Beijing as an opportunity to simplify transactions with Indian buyers. Indian Oil Corp, India's largest refiner and state-controlled company, paid in Chinese currency recently for two or three cargoes worth of Russian oil. Indian Oil has not responded to the request for comment immediately. Western sanctions against Russia following its invasion of Ukraine in 2022 have led to a greater use of alternative currencies such as the yuan or the dirham of the UAE for oil trade settlements. The dollar has long dominated these transactions. Indian state refiners paid for Russian oil using yuan in 2023. However, they stopped doing so due to the Indian government's displeasure during a time of increased tensions with Beijing. Private refiners, however, continued to use Chinese currency. One trader stated that traders who previously had to convert payments from dirhams and dollars to yuans, since they can only be exchanged directly into roubles to pay producers, are now looking to eliminate a costly step. Sources said traders also priced Russian oil in US dollars to ensure compliance with the European Union price cap, and sought payment equivalent to yuan. Due to sanctions, the West has stopped importing Russian oil. The sources stated that payments in yuan would increase the availability of Russian crude oil for Indian refiners as some traders refused to accept other currencies. After a break of over five years, India and China resumed direct flights. Last month, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi travelled to China for the first time since 2007. He was there to attend the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation's regional security bloc.
China's emissions, performance targets under danger after falling short in 2023
China is falling short on crucial targets for dealing with climatewarming emissions, and analysts stated Beijing's reliability in global climate talks might be at danger unless it enhances its efforts to get back on track.
The Chinese government has actually seldom missed targets in the past. Now, driven mainly by energy security issues, it has shown little political will to deal with the emissions gap, experts said.
China's National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), a. planning firm, guaranteed recently to redouble efforts in. energy conservation and carbon reduction this year after it. fell short of expectations in 2023.
Analysts say it is well behind on its goal to slash energy. strength by 13.5% and carbon intensity by 18% in between 2021 and. 2025.
The strength rates-- measuring how much energy is consumed. and just how much co2 produced per unit of economic development. -- are an essential part of the country's pledge to bring emissions to a. peak before 2030 and to net no by 2060.
Keeping its targets within reach would require concerted. efforts throughout all sectors to bridge the space, said Jom Madan,. senior research study analyst with the consultancy Wood Mackenzie.
The preparation commission set targets for 2024 that fall. far short of what is required. For energy strength, the. commission mandated just a 2.5% decrease. It set no new target. for carbon strength, and made no brand-new moves to suppress making use of. coal-- the most polluting nonrenewable fuel source.
Madan anticipated that China might come close ... however not rather. accomplish its targets on energy efficiency. If the nation misses. its 2025 targets, it might raise doubts around the world about its. ability to check emissions.
The nation likewise runs the risk of a severe loss of diplomatic. credibility, said lead expert Lauri Myllyvirta of the Centre. for Research study on Energy and Clean Air.
China has actually long emphasised its capability to carry out the. nation's dedications, while criticising others for setting. lofty targets, he stated.
The NDRC did not respond to a request for comment.
As the world's greatest carbon polluter and second-largest. economy, China has actually dealt with growing global pressure to show. more climate aspiration. It has resisted, arguing that it is. already doing more than most fast-developing countries.
China's rising emissions represent 35% of the world's. annual total. On a per capita basis, the emissions level is 15%. higher per capita than the OECD average, the International. Energy Company said recently.
To fulfill its goals, Beijing should focus on effectiveness. improvements in market and building, and offer more. financial backing for business to retrofit or change outdated. facilities, Madan said. Expanding the carbon market would. help, he included.
NEW TRUTH
Formally, China's energy strength fell 0.5% in 2023, the. nation's data bureau stated last month, missing a 2%. target.
The gap would have been even worse, however China last month removed. non-fossil fuels such as nuclear and eco-friendly energy from the. equation to concentrate on tackling nonrenewable fuel sources. China is applying. this meaning retroactively, Myllyvirta said. Without the. modification, the energy strength calculation would have shown an. boost of 0.5%.
Myllyvirta approximated that China would need to cut energy. intensity by 6% in 2024 and 2025 to satisfy the 2021-2025 target--. far greater than the 2.5% objective set today.
Energy intensity might matter less in the future, nevertheless,. said Ma Jun, director of the Beijing-based Institute of Public. and Environmental Affairs. The modification in how it is computed. shows a brand-new truth for China, in which financial growth is. progressively driven by the renewables sector, and fossil-fuel. reliant markets will come under more pressure to improve. performance, Ma said.
That suggests carbon strength is going to matter more, he. stated.
Although China set no new targets for carbon strength, the. nation's financial development suggests the measure will fall about 3%. this year, analysts stated.
Nevertheless, after dropping 4.6% from 2020 to 2023, carbon. intensity would need to drop about 7% this year and next to. reach the 2025 goal, Myllyvirta stated.
Missing out on climate targets is unusual for China, which has made. task promotions contingent on ecological development to motivate. workers and firms to meet goals.
In 2022, China's corruption guard dog cautioned that some. regions were supplying fraudulent energy and carbon intensity. figures that were extremely positive.
Pressure to adhere to strength targets also triggered. economic disturbances in 2010, with provinces cutting power. materials to energy-intensive markets and requiring homes to. ration electricity.
Without a significant boost to its climate efforts now, meeting. the five-year strength targets by 2025 will be really. challenging, said Li Shuo, director of the China Climate Hub at. the Asia Society Policy Institute in Washington.
This year's federal government work report certainly did not signal. that level of decisiveness, Shou said.
(source: Reuters)