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MORNING BID EUROPE-Nvidia delivers, but good no longer cuts it
Rae Wee gives us a look at what the European and global markets will be like today. With so many expectations?for Nvidia?, even a solid beating of its earnings didn't satisfy investors who were chasing higher returns on artificial intelligence. After hours, shares of the most valuable company in the world traded flat. This was a reversal of a brief bounce that followed its January-quarter results. These showed sales exceeding analyst expectations. They also forecast revenue for the current quarter above market projections. The markets are used to the chipmaker's solid revenue beatings for 14 consecutive quarters. Wednesday's result was hardly a shock. It has at least put the worry about AI-driven disruptions and their costs to the side. Stocks in Asia rose on Thursday in a relief rally, while U.S. futures and European futures were lower. Investors have been a bit unsure about the AI market in the last few weeks. They are worried about the returns on their investment, and the potential for it to disrupt entire industries. But they also don't want to "sit back" and do nothing. Analysts also say that the AI boom will no longer be the tide which lifts all the boats. Geopolitics continue to?cast a cloud on markets in other places. The third round of talks between the U.S., Iran and their negotiators this year will take place in Geneva on Thursday. The U.S. is also building up its largest military presence in the Middle East to prepare for possible attacks on the Islamic Republic. In his State of the Union address earlier this week Donald Trump briefly outlined his case for an attack on Iran, saying that his preference would be to "solve the issue through diplomacy", but that he wouldn't allow Tehran to possess a nuclear bomb. Iran claims that its nuclear activities are for the production of civilian energy. The U.S. rhetoric kept oil prices high on Thursday as investors worried about a possible supply disruption in case of conflict. The yen, which is a currency, was once again in the spotlight after the Japanese government appointed two academics who were seen by the markets as strong advocates of economic stimulus, to the Bank of Japan board. Market participants were surprised by the move, which they interpreted as reflecting Prime Minister Sanae Takayichi's monetary policy preferences. This put into doubt future interest rate increases from central banks. The currency gained support after the Yomiuri reported that BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda had left the door open to a rate hike in the near future, and board member Hajime Takata called for a gradual tightening of policy. The following are key developments that may influence the markets on Thursday. * U.S.-Iran talks Weekly U.S. jobless claims
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EU Steel Sector Pushes for a Narrow Scope of the "Made in Europe" Act
The European steel industry stated on Thursday that EU provisions that are due to be announced next week, which will prioritize?the use?of locally-made materials, must include steel. 'Local' is understood only as "close EU neighbors such as?"Britain" and Norway. Next Wednesday, the EU executive will propose its "Industrial Accelerator Act", which includes requirements that local products be given priority when using public funds. The "Made in Europe' provision will cover "key sectors", such as batteries, solar, wind, and hydrogen production, nuclear power, and electric vehicles. The inclusion of low-carbon steel is unclear. Disagreements about the geographical scope of the plans delayed their presentation. Norway, Iceland, and Liechtenstein are members of the EU single market. "I agree that those countries with a system very similar to the EU should be added." "I have no issue with the UK but you can't add all of the FTA countries (Free Trade Agreement)," Axel Eggert said, director general at steel association Eurofer. He said that the Middle East/North Africa, India, Indonesia, and Vietnam must be excluded. He continued: "They are the ones who create overcapacity and do not decarbonise as much as we must in the EU." Other industries, including carmakers, have asked for the provisions to be extended to include countries in their supply chains such as Britain and Turkey. Eggert stated that the latest draft appears to have removed "Made in Europe"?requirements. He said that many other trading partners were buying local. "India, China and the U.S. are all "buying national", but they do this for all production.?And we're just talking about low-carbon steel. He said that if you wanted to stimulate investment in decarbonisation then you had to include steel as well, referring back to the Act. (Reporting and editing by Alexandra Hudson; Reporting by Philip Blenkinsop)
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Iron ore prices fall on lower demand for feedstock after production cuts
Iron ore futures were unable to find direction on Thursday, as traders considered the reduced demand for feedstock due to upcoming production cuts and signs that Beijing would?implement additional property stimulus measures. As of 0302 GMT, the most-traded contract for May?iron ore on China's Dalian Commodity Exchange was trading 0.4% lower. It was 745.5 Yuan ($108.91), per metric ton. The benchmark March ore price on the Singapore Exchange fell 0.27% to $98.4 per ton. Chinese steelmakers in the northern region of China will have to reduce production by 30% or more starting March 4, to maintain clean air during the annual parliament meeting on March 5. The reduction in production will reduce the demand for feedstock. However, the higher steel prices and the anticipation of stimulus policies at the parliamentary'meeting' will encourage mills?restock. Beijing showed its willingness on Wednesday to resuscitate forcefully the property market after Shanghai lifted restrictions on homebuying and rules that limited property developers' borrowing. There are rumors that other major cities will soon follow suit with property-easing measures. According to data released by the Shanghai Steel Market on February 25, the blast furnace operating rate increased in 242 steelmills from week to week, and hot metal production was up?7.700 metric tonnes from the week prior to the Lunar New Year holidays. SteelHome data shows that spot prices for seaborne iron ore rose 1.46% from the previous week to $97.5 on 25 February. Coking coal and?coke, which are used to make steel, also declined in the DCE, losing 2,15 % and 0.63% respectively. The benchmarks for steel on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were mixed. Rebar rose by 0.23%. Hot-rolled coils rose by 0.22%. Wire rod grew by 0.35%. Meanwhile, stainless steel fell 0.66%. $1 = 6.8452 Yuan (Reporting and editing by Ruth Chai)
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After being released by US Border Patrol, a refugee with near-blindness was found dead in Buffalo.
Authorities in Buffalo said that a nearly blind Myanmar refugee who had been missing since his release from Buffalo jail and transfer to the U.S. Border Patrol was found dead on a downtown street on Wednesday. A spokesperson for the Buffalo Police Department said that police officers in upstate New York found the body of?Nurul Alam Shah Alam on Tuesday night. Shah Alam was missing since February 19 when U.S. Border Patrol agents released him from a county prison, where he spent most of the past year waiting for trial on criminal charges which resulted in an misdemeanor deal. The spokesperson confirmed that homicide detectives are currently investigating the circumstances surrounding Shah Alam's murder. Buffalo Mayor Democrat Sean Ryan said that the death of Shah Alam was preventable, and the result "inhumane decisions" by federal immigration officials. Ryan stated that "a vulnerable man, nearly blind and unable to speak English, was left alone in the cold of winter with no attempt made to place him in a secure or safe location." "That decision by?U.S. Customs and Border Protection was unprofessional and cruel." CBP did not respond immediately to a comment request. CBP spokesperson told Investigative Post in Buffalo, that agents dropped Shah Alam at a local coffee shop when they determined he was a refugee who could not be deported. The agency stated that "Border Patrol Agents offered him a courtesy ride to a nearby coffee shop which was determined to be warm and safe, instead of being released directly from Border Patrol Station." "He did not show any signs of distress or mobility problems, nor was he in need of special assistance." Buffalo, near the Canadian border was below freezing temperatures last weekend. Shah Alam, according to the Erie County District Attorney's Office, was arrested in 2013 following an incident which resulted two minor injuries for Buffalo Police officers. Shah Alam, who had accepted a plea agreement from the district attorney’s office, was released on bail in this month. After Shah Alam was arrested, U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) issued an immigration detainer. This is a formal request for custody of a foreign national after his scheduled release from criminal jail. A spokesperson for the Erie County Sheriff's Office said that the Erie County Sheriff's Office had contacted U.S. Border Patrol in response to the immigration detainer prior to Shah Alam's?release. Mohamad Fassial, one Shah Alam’s children, wrote in a message that the arrest of his father a year earlier was caused by a miscommunication with police officers. Faisal reported that Shah Alam - who did not speak English - had gone for a stroll and was using a curtain pole he had 'purchased as walking sticks. Faisal reported that Shah Alam was lost and had walked on to the property of Buffalo residents who called the cops. Shah Alam was arrested when he did not understand the police's orders to drop his curtain rod. Faisal claimed that, upon his release from prison last week "nobody told me, my family or lawyer where my father was dropped off." Faisal stated that Shah Alam was unable to read, write, or use electronic devices. Faisal stated that Shah Alam wanted only to "eat food prepared at home" and be "reunited with his family". He said the family is Arakan Rohingya. (Reporting and editing by Noelee Walder, Michael Perry and Kristina Wolfe from San Francisco and New Orleans).
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Oil prices rise as tensions between the US and Iran keep supply risks front-and-center
The price of oil climbed Thursday as investors hoped that U.S. and Iranian talks would avert a conflict which could disrupt supply. However, gains were capped due to a 'build-up in U.S. crude stocks. Brent futures traded at $71.12 a barrel at 0123 GMT, up 27 cents or 0.3%. WTI futures increased by 23 cents or 0.4% to $65.65. Brent rose 8 cents Wednesday while WTI dropped 21 cents. Brent reached its highest level since July 31, and WTI also rose to the highest level since July 31. Both contracts have remained?near these levels, as Washington has deployed military forces to the Middle East in order to pressure Iran to negotiate a stop to its nuclear and ballistic-missile programme. On Thursday, U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff will meet with Jared Kushner and an Iranian delegation in Geneva for a third round of talks. Toshitaka Takawa, analyst at 'Fujitomi Securities' said that investors are concentrating on whether a military conflict can be avoided in the U.S.Iran negotiations. He said that even if war broke out, as long as the targets are limited and the conflict is'short-lived', WTI will likely temporarily rise to $70 before falling to $60-$65. A prolonged conflict could disrupt the supply of crude oil from Iran, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries' third-largest producer, as well as other Middle East exporters. In his State of the Union address on Tuesday, U.S. president Donald Trump briefly outlined his case for an attack on Iran. He said he wouldn't allow a nation he described as the biggest sponsor of terror in the world to possess a nuclear bomb. Abbas Araqchi, the Iranian Foreign Minister, said on Tuesday that an agreement with the U.S. is "within reach" but only if diplomacy takes priority. Saudi Arabia has increased its oil exports and production as part of "a contingency" plan in case a U.S. attack on Iran disrupts Middle East supplies, according to two sources who are familiar with the plan. OPEC+ - which includes members 'of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and their allies, including Russia - is likely to 'consider increasing its oil production by 137,000 barrels a day for April. Three sources familiar with OPEC+ thought said this as the group prepared for 'peak summer demand and a... price boost resulting from tensions between the U.S. Data from the Energy Information Administration on Wednesday showed that the increase in crude oil inventories in the United States last week was the largest in three years. This slowed down the price increases. This was far more than the 1.5 million barrels analysts predicted in a survey. Reporting by Yuka Obaashi
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Asia shares surge in relief rally after Nvidia beats street
Asian stocks rose on Thursday, after Nvidia's upbeat results soothed concerns about AI-driven disruptions and rising costs. The yen, however, was weighed down by an uncertain rate outlook in Japan. Oil prices remained high due to lingering concerns about the escalating geopolitical tensions that could arise between the U.S. Nvidia forecasted first-quarter revenues above market expectations on Wednesday, betting that Big Tech would continue to spend on its AI processors. Investors were closely watching the result. It was a relief to see that companies weren't spending as much money on AI. This helped Japan's Nikkei reach a new record early in the session. South Korea's KOSPI also rose 2%. The broadest MSCI index of Asia-Pacific stocks outside Japan rose by 0.7%. "Nvidia’s print was strong to keep the AI capital expenditure cycle alive." "The immediate market response is relief. This translates into a modest?risk-on-tone after the AI driven volatility of recent weeks," Saxo's Chief Investment Strategist Charu Chanana said. In recent weeks, traders have been alternating between being concerned about the returns on their investment and the potential of the technology to disrupt entire industries and hesitant to stay on the sidelines. Richard Clode is a portfolio manager for Janus Henderson Investors. He said that the debate was less about near-term results, and more about 'the sustainability of AI capital expenditures given concerns about its amount, monetisation, and cashflow degeneration. Nvidia shares initially surged in extended trading after the results, but later lost those gains. Nasdaq and S&P futures are now down by 0.25%. The futures of the EUROSTOXX50 index were up by a small 0.06%. Will they, won't they? The yen remained the currency of choice for investors. It stayed near its two-week low after the Japanese government appointed two academics who were seen by the markets as advocates of economic stimulation to the board. Markets interpreted the surprise move as reflecting Prime Minister Sanae Takayichi's lenient monetary policies, casting doubt on future Bank of Japan rate increases. The yen last strengthened by 0.2% at 156.01 to the dollar, thanks to a weaker greenback. However, it is still down about 0.6% this week. In a recent note, OCBC strategists expressed concern that the BOJ's nominees could be dovish and stoke fears of a lag in policy normalisation. This would weaken the JPY while steepening the JGB curve. Our USD/JPY end-2026 forecast remains at 149. The currency is unlikely transition from a financing currency to an investing currency unless BOJ becomes more hawkish that our baseline outlook?of two rate increases this year." The Yomiuri reported on Thursday, that BOJ Governor Kazuo ueda had left the "door open" to a rate hike in the near future. This would lend some support to currency. The dollar is on the backfoot, as the euro rose 0.12% to $1.1824 and sterling rose 0.08% at $1.3570. Prices rose on the oil markets as fears grew about a possible military conflict between Iran and the U.S. Brent crude futures rose by 0.27% to $71.04 per barrel. U.S. crude climbed 0.24%, reaching $65.55 a barrel. Senior Trump administration officials made a case on Wednesday that Iran is a major threat for the U.S., ahead of the Thursday negotiations about Tehran's nuclear programme. Spot gold rose 0.27% to $5,184.66 per ounce on the back of some safe-haven buying.
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Fiji and Tuvalu will host climate talks before the COP31
The Pacific Islands Forum announced on Thursday that Fiji and Tuvalu would host important meetings leading up to the COP31 Climate Summit in 2026. According to an agreement between Australia and Turkey, the bloc announced that Fiji will host the pre-COP31 meeting and Tuvalu a special leaders component. Low-lying Pacific Islands are at the forefront of climate change. They face rising sea levels, and other crises which have forced residents to relocate to higher ground. Australia and Turkey were locked in a long running tussle for the hosting of the U.N. conference, the world's primary forum to drive climate action. According to the agreement, Turkey will host the main COP31 conference. Australia will lead the talks and the Pacific region will host the pre-summit. In a social media statement, Jeremiah Manele (PIF chair and Solomon Islands Prime Minister) said that the pre-COP31 meeting for COP31 will take place in Fiji, in October 2026. A special Leaders component will be held in Tuvalu. The Pre-COP gives us the chance to demonstrate that the most vulnerable countries can be leaders in climate change and that the world's strongest nations are willing to listen. In the statement, it was added that 'Palau will also host a'special climate event' as part of the?55th PIF?leaders meeting which is taking place in the country this September. Australia stated that the pre-COP meeting would be "an unprecedented opportunity to bring the world to the Pacific to experience climate impacts and solutions firsthand". Penny Wong, Australian Foreign Minister, said in a statement that "Pacific countries are leaders on climate change and their voices play a central role in shaping the global response." The Pacific peoples will be able to directly address the global community at these COP meetings.
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BlueScope's revised $10.7 billion bid is not enough but they are willing to negotiate with buyers
BlueScope Steel shares in Australia fell almost 5% on Thursday, after the company said that a re-evaluated A$15 billion bid ($10.7billion) from SGH and U.S. based Steel Dynamics was not enough to win its approval. BlueScope said that it "remains" open to engaging with consortium in order to come up with a bid which reflects the "fair value of BlueScope", as opposed the the revised A$34 offer per share. After a $1 special dividend announced in January, and BlueScope’s A$0.65 interim dividend per share, the value of this bid has been reduced to A$32.35. BlueScope said that it plans to distribute an additional A$1.35 to investors per share in 2026. The takeover target stated that "the?offer is not enough for the board of directors to recommend a scheme to its'shareholders" and added that there were ways to increase value for shareholders. BlueScope's shares dropped as much as 4.9% on Thursday before regaining some ground and trading at a loss of 2.6%. The?S&P/ASX200 rose 0.4%. SGH refused to comment on BlueScope’s statement. Steel Dynamics didn't immediately respond to the request for comment. BlueScope Chair Jane McAloon's letter to SGH and Steel Dynamics, which was published on ASX, stated that the steel producer would be willing to work with the consortium, if certain conditions are met. McAloon stated that BlueScope needs to better understand the value that will be placed on the company's North American business assets, given that the business would be sold by Steel Dynamics as part of the process. She said that while BlueScope did not want to accept the consortium's proposal, the board needed to make the offer before SGH or Steel Dynamics could do due diligence on their target. The letter also requested more information on the funding structure to be used for the takeover. McAloon stated that the board was open to further engagement if you were able to address all the issues raised in the letter, and, most importantly, increase the value of your proposal to BlueScope's shareholders.
Oil prices edge up as tensions between the US and Iran keep supply risks front-and-center
The oil prices rose on Thursday, as investors hoped that U.S.-Iran negotiations could prevent a'military conflict which risks disruption of supply.' However, gains were limited by the buildup in U.S. ?crude inventories. Brent futures traded at $71.04 a barrel at 0415 GMT, an increase of 19 cents or 0.3%. WTI futures increased 15 cents or 0.2% to $65.57 a barrel.
Brent rose Monday to its highest level since July 31, as Washington sent military forces to the Middle East in an effort to pressure Iran into negotiating a stop to its nuclear programme and ballistic missile program.
Toshitaka Takawa, analyst at Fujitomi Securities said that investors are focusing on the possibility of a military conflict in the U.S. and Iran negotiations.
WTI could rise briefly to $70 per barrel if the targets are limited and the conflict is short-lived. It would then fall to $60-$65,?he said.
A prolonged conflict could disrupt the supply of crude oil from Iran, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries' third-largest producer, as well as other Middle East exporters.
U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner will meet with an Iranian delegation on Thursday for a third session of talks in Geneva. The outcome of the U.S. and Iran nuclear talks will be crucial to the direction oil prices take.
"If the talks fail, there is still an upside risk, but the market might wait to react until the extent of any possible U.S. actions against Iran are clearer." In his State of the Union address on Tuesday, U.S. president Donald Trump briefly outlined?his argument for a potential attack on Iran. He said he wouldn't allow a nation he called the world's largest sponsor of terrorism to possess a nuclear weapon.
Abbas Araqchi, the Iranian Foreign Minister, said on Tuesday a deal between Iran and the United States was "within our reach" - but only if diplomacy is given priority. Saudi Arabia has increased its oil exports and production as part of an emergency plan to ensure that Middle East supplies are not disrupted by a U.S. attack on Iran, according to two sources who were familiar with the plan. OPEC+ - which includes members of 'the Organization of 'the Petroleum Exporting countries and their allies, including Russia - is likely to increase its oil production by 137,000 barrels a day in April, according to three sources familiar with OPEC+ thought. This comes as the group prepares itself for the peak?summer?demand and a possible price boost due the tensions between the U.S. Energy Information Administration data released on Wednesday showed that U.S. crude oil inventories increased by 16 million barrels, the highest in three years. This is far more than the 1.5-million barrel rise predicted in a survey. (Reporting from Yuka Obayashi, Tokyo; Emily Chow, Singapore; editing by Christian Schmollinger).
(source: Reuters)