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Oil prices drop on US stock build-up and OPEC forecast change

Oil prices fell on Thursday, continuing losses from the previous day, after a report indicating rising crude inventories at the U.S. heightened concerns that global supplies are more than enough to meet the current fuel demand.

Brent crude futures dropped 9 cents or 0.1% to $62.62 per barrel at 0336 GMT after falling 3.8% the day before. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude fell 11 cents or 0.2% to $58.38 per barrel, continuing a 4.2% drop on Wednesday.

According to market sources, who cited American Petroleum Institute data, U.S. crude stocks rose by 1.3m barrels during the week ending November 7, according to Wednesday's figures. The API data showed that gasoline and distillate stocks dropped.

The price of a barrel of oil fell by more than two dollars on Wednesday, after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries said that global oil supplies would slightly exceed demand in the year 2026. This is a significant shift from the earlier predictions of a deficit.

Suvro Sarkar is the DBS Bank energy sector team leader. He said that the recent (price) decline seems to be driven OPEC’s revised supply-demand balance for 2026. This confirms that the group now acknowledges the possibility of a glut of supplies in 2026.

This is in line with the recent decision by the government to stop the unwinding voluntary production cuts for the 1Q. This is a simple shift in the way the market is viewed. It doesn't affect the fundamentals of the market. Therefore, the market reaction appears overdone."

OPEC expects a surplus of supply next year due to the increased production by OPEC+. This group includes OPEC producers and their allies, such as Russia.

The OPEC signal that there was a surplus of supply in the market released previously pent up bearish sentiment during the previous session. A U.S. crude stock buildup added further pressure and pushed oil prices down on Thursday morning," Yang An, an analysts at Haitong Securities, said.

Energy Information Administration (EIA) is expected to release its inventory data on Thursday. Investor sentiment was further exacerbated by other reports released on Wednesday.

In its Short-Term Energy Outlook, the EIA said that U.S. Oil Production is expected to reach a higher record than originally forecast.

The EIA said that global oil inventories are expected to grow until 2026, as production will increase faster than the demand for petroleum products, increasing pressure on oil prices.

Some analysts expect prices to stay close to current levels in the future.

Sarkar, DBS's Sarkar, said that there should be substantial support for oil prices at $60/bbl. This is especially true given the possibility of a short-term disruption in Russian export flows when stricter sanctions are implemented.

(source: Reuters)