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Due to high fuel prices and mandates, US oil refiners are finally able to profit from biofuels.

U.S. refiners have finally started to make money from renewable fuels. They had been squeezed for years by government mandates on biofuels. The U.S. and Israeli 'war on Iran' has also led to a rise in diesel prices.

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) mandated in late March that refiners mix record volumes of biofuels into gasoline and diesel for this year and the next. The plan calls for a 60% increase of the use of renewable diesel and biodiesel, as well as a requirement that gasoline be mixed with 15 billion gallons ethanol each year.

These mandates have forced U.S. refiners into increasing biofuels production, which has revived profits at a moment when global diesel supply remains tight. The move follows a period of decline when the demand for renewable fuels fell short. Oversupply also impacted margins, and producers had to absorb the blow after rapid growth five years ago.

Valero is the largest biofuel producer in the country. Its renewable diesel business saw a profit of $139 million in the first quarter, compared to a loss of $141 million in the same time period last year. The profits for the ethanol division more than quadrupled. Biofuel mandates have been described by company executives as a "pretty powerful tailwind."

Refiner HF Sinclair also saw a positive change in its renewable diesel results. It posted a $133-million profit, compared to a loss of $17-million a year ago.

Phillips 66, a major independent refiner, has dramatically reduced its losses in the renewable fuels sector. Brian Mandell said that the company's renewable-diesel plants were running at capacity during an analyst conference call last month. He said investors should expect to see a "substantial" difference in the performance of the renewable segment compared to a year earlier.

WINDFALL UNEXPECTED

John Deal, managing Director of Capital Markets at Post Oak Group, explained that the new biofuel mandates have effectively set a ceiling on demand for biomass-based 'diesel.

New rules help refiners get a higher price for Renewable Identification Numbers. Refiners that blend more biofuels than required can sell credits to other refiners who lack the capacity to blend sufficient biofuel themselves.

Rand Taylor, CEO Fuel Ox Inc., a supplier to refinery industries of fuel additives, stated that the new mandates would bring a multi-year level of certainty as well as stronger RINs.

The RIN credits can be divided into two types: D4 credits (for biodiesel or renewable diesel) and D6 credits (for corn-based ethanol). According to LSEG, the prices of these credits rose by more than 80% in 2018. They now cost over $2 per credit.

"We have waited through hard times. Franklin Myers, CEO of HF Sinclair, told investors in a recent investor meeting: "Let's harvest these good days."

Uncertainty about the future

Although a stronger demand for renewable energy and favorable policy signals has encouraged refiners to?churn out more product, it is unclear if this will encourage producers to invest capital in expanding production capacity.

Due to the poor market conditions, Chevron will shut down two biodiesel plants in the Midwest of the United States by?2024. Vertex Energy stopped renewable diesel production in its Mobile, Alabama refinery the same year to switch back to fossil fuels.

A strong demand for soybean oil by biofuel producers, as well as a slower soy crushing rate due to spring maintenance, could push soybean prices up. Traders and analysts have said that higher prices and a shortage of soybean oil could discourage the production of biodiesel.

Diesel prices spiked during Iran's war. This could lead some refiners?to increase conventional diesel production instead. Diesel prices have risen by 46% during the war, and because supplies are tight, conventional diesel offers a better return in the short-term than renewable diesel, according to Arif Gasilov.

Geoff Moody is the senior vice president for government relations and policy of American Fuel and Petrochemical Manufacturers. (Reporting from Nicole Jao in New York and Siddharth Cavale; editing by David Gregorio).

(source: Reuters)