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Oil prices rise as investors remain cautious about the US-Iran ceasefire opening up supply
Investors' fears that the supply of oil from the Middle East region, which is a major producer of the commodity, may not be fully resumed amid the doubts about the two-week ceasefire agreement between the U.S.A. and Iran and the fact that the Strait of Hormuz remained restricted led to a rise in the price of crude oil on Thursday. Brent crude futures rose $2.6, or 2.74 percent, to $97.35 per barrel at 0048 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI), however, rose $3.02 or 3.2% to $97.43 per barrel. Both benchmark prices dropped below $100 per barrel during the previous trading session. WTI recorded its largest decline since April 2020?on the expectation that the ceasefire between the U.S., Israel and Iran against Iran will reopen Strait of Hormuz. Waterway that connects Gulf producers like Iraq, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait to global markets. Typically, it carries around 20% of the oil supply. Israel's continued attacks on Lebanon?on Wednesday raised questions about the viability and sustainability of the ceasefire. Iran said it was "unreasonable to continue with negotiations to forge?a permanent peace agreement." On?Wednesday, shippers said that they wanted more clarity about the terms of the truce before resuming their transit through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran, in coordination with its Revolutionary Guards has released maps that guide ships to avoid mines and have designated safe passages. "Transiting through the Strait of Hormuz does not come with a risk-free guarantee." Standard Chartered analysts said that it is at Iran's sole discretion. "Logistical disconnects, security concerns, increased insurance premiums, and operational constraints will mean that very little additional energy will be supplied through the Strait of Hormuz over the next two weeks." According to an oil industry source, regional?oil facilities are also under threat. Iran has continued to strike sites in neighboring countries, including a Saudi Arabian pipeline that was used by the country's military forces to bypass the Strait of Hormuz. Kuwait, Bahrain and UAE have also reported drone and missile strikes. In a recent note, Haitong Futures stated that there are concerns about the stability of the ceasefire.?Israeli strikes against Lebanon's Hezbollah has emerged as a source of disagreement, while attacks across the Middle East continue, and contradictory statements remain regarding the Strait of Hormuz.
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Trump's sudden Iran reversal reveals limits to his leverage
Donald Trump's dramatic retreat from his chilling threats?to wipeout Iran's civilisation has exposed the limits and rising risks of the U.S. President's unpredictable negotiating style. Trump's decision to back down on Tuesday and accept a ceasefire lasting two weeks - which some critics called "TACO" or "Trump always cries out" – was the biggest step to date in de-escalating the 40-day war that has shaken the Middle East, and disrupted the global energy markets. Trump's claim of a?victory? over Iran was based on a mix of maximalist demands and erratic language, as well as increasingly extreme threats. Trump went further than ever on Tuesday morning, when he warned Iran via social media: "A whole civilization will perish tonight if it doesn't reach a deal." Trump reversed his threat, which experts claim could have been war crimes. He announced a truce agreement mediated by Pakistan just two hours before the deadline he set for Iran to open up the Strait of Hormuz. In his post, he claimed that the U.S. has "already achieved and exceeded all military objectives." Analysts say that despite Trump's triumphalist rhetoric, Iran will likely emerge from this conflict as a persistent problem for Washington. It is militarily weaker but has a more hardline leader, de facto control of the vital waterway used to ship oil, and a stockpile buried of highly enriched nuclear material. Trump has hailed himself as a master negotiator ever since his days as a real estate developer, but some analysts claim he can limit himself with his negotiating approach and undermine U.S. credibilities on the international stage. Jon Alterman, a Washington-based think tank member at the Center for Strategic & International Studies, said that "the president was trapped by himself and his hyperbole." "He couldn't have destroyed Iranian culture, and the costs to even appear to try would have massive." This approach comes with an additional risk: that the adversaries, including China and Russia, will become aware of it. The surprise factor is fading, said a Republican legislator who was in touch with the White House Tuesday night. He was referring to Trump’s habit of reversing his position after making tough-sounding statements. Karoline Leavitt, White House Press Secretary, denied that Trump had given in. She told reporters on Wednesday that Trump's language was part his "tough negotiation style" and the world should take his words "very seriously." EXTREME NEGATIVE POSITIONS Trump is known for taking extreme positions in negotiations, then reversing them. Analysts said that at times this strategy appeared to be deliberate, while other times it seemed random, with the administration reverting in response to pressure from the financial markets or MAGA's political base. Trump's new stance on Iran was prompted by a rise in U.S. gas prices and his own deteriorating approval ratings. The term "TACO", which is derived from the phrase "Tariff Adjustment" (or "TACO"), dates back to around a decade ago. Faced with a loss of $6.5 trillion in U.S. stocks over the course of just four days, Trump lowered the hefty duties he announced at his "Liberation Day", event held at the White House, days earlier. Few weeks later, he reversed another set of punitive measures against China. Both times, after Trump's reversals, the stock markets - that Trump often cites to gauge his performance – rallied fervently. The S&P 500 index rose 2.5% on Wednesday following the ceasefire declaration, as per usual. Trump has also backed down on his threats to seize Greenland, a NATO member country, from Denmark and his desire to take over the war-ravaged Gaza. His deadlines to secure a ceasefire in the Gaza war between Israel and Hamas did yield results, but his ultimatums that the Palestinian militant group disarm went?unheeded. Trump's second-term military threats have gone far beyond the 2017-2021 presidential term. A special forces raid led to the capture in January of Nicolas Maduro, and an improved U.S.-compliant government in Caracas. Trump acted on escalating threats made against the Islamic Republic when he attacked it with Israel on February 28. This was while Washington and Tehran continued to negotiate over the Iranian nucleus program. The question is now whether Trump could still fail to achieve his stated goals, such as 'closing Iran’s path towards a nuclear weapon,' despite tactical military achievements. Iran has denied wanting a nuclear weapon, but still has a large stockpile believed to be mostly underground after U.S. and Israeli air strikes on June. 'MADMAN THEORY' Trump and his advisers have insisted for years that being unpredictable was a negotiation tactic to keep opponents on their heels. Jonathan?Panikoff is a former U.S. deputy intelligence officer for Middle East who now works at the Atlantic Council in Washington. "He brought Iran to the brink and managed to escape at least with the temporary off-ramp that he had hoped would come," said Jonathan?Panikoff, a former U.S. intelligence officer for the Middle East now working at the Atlantic Council think tank in Washington. Alexander Gray, a senior official from the first Trump administration who is now CEO of American Global Strategies, has rejected the idea that this was another example of Trump’s TACO tendencies and stated instead that the heated rhetoric aimed to "escalate to de-escalate". Trump is believed to have embraced parts of Richard Nixon's Madman Theory. This theory, popularized during the Vietnam War, holds that extreme threats will force opponents to negotiate. Nixon wanted the North Vietnamese people to think he was insane and could use nuclear weapons. Mark Dubowitz is the CEO of the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies. A nonprofit research institute that is considered hawkish in foreign policy. He said he agreed with Trump's belief that "you have to literally out-crazy the Iranians" despite the drawbacks. Dubowitz stated that the Madman Theory is not only a bad idea, but it also scares your friends and family. Reporting by Matt Spetalnick and David Brunnstrom; Additional reporting by Andrea Shalal; Patricia Zengerle; Nandita BOSE and Dan Burns. Writing by Matt Spetalnick. Editing by Don Durfee, Nia Williams and Nia William.
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China's record oil purchase propels Brazil's monthly oil exports up to the second highest level
According to Brazilian government data released this week, China purchased a record amount of crude oil from Brazil in March. This brought the South American nation’s total monthly crude exports up to the second highest level ever. The data shows that China imported 1.6 million barrels of crude oil per day from Brazil in March, as the global energy flow has been reshaped by the U.S./Israel war against Iran. The previous record was around 1.46m bpd, which was recorded in May 2020. Brazil exported a total amount of 2,5 million bpd?of crude oil to all markets in March, thanks to China's record purchases. Brazil's crude oil exports increased 12.4% compared to February, making it the second highest volume ever recorded for any month. Only March 2023 was higher. The increase in exports had been?expected', said Bruno Cordeiro, an analyst for StoneX, who specializes in market intelligence. Cordeiro said that India was Brazil's second largest destination for oil exports. It also sought to find a way around the closed Strait through which 20% of the global crude flowed before the war. DIESEL Brazil reduced diesel imports in March by 25% compared to the previous month, reaching 1.05 billion liters. This is a warning sign for Brazil, which relies on diesel imports to meet about a quarter its needs. According to data from the government, the?share of U.S. Diesel in Brazilian imports dropped to less than 1 % in March, down from 8.3 % in February. Cordeiro explained that the U.S. is likely to have redirected fuel to areas where they pay higher prices, such as Asia. Cordeiro reported that Russia's share of the Brazilian market grew from 58% to 75%, but its diesel shipments to Brazil were largely unchanged since February. Reporting by Marta Nogueira and Roberto Samora from Rio de Janeiro, and writing by Fernando Cardoso & Stephen Coates
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New Jersey ends de-facto nuclear power plant moratorium
New Jersey lifted its de-facto moratorium on nuclear energy on Wednesday in the state. The state is grappling with some of the fastest-rising power bills in the United States. Electricity demand is outpacing the addition of new supply. Sherrill’s office released a statement that said the Governor signed legislation to remove a permit requirement that had effectively prohibited nuclear power development for decades. The law required a method for radioactive waste disposal that was unattainable. Instead, the state will issue permits for radioactive-waste storage that comply with federal nuclear regulations. Sherrill, who won the top government position in January after campaigning with the promise to lower utility bills, has now taken the action that will allow nuclear energy to be built in the Garden State. Sherrill said that in order to lower costs, more energy is needed. New Jersey is well-positioned as a leader for next-generation nuclear power to bring this supply. We are open for business. A task force was also created by the governor's office to investigate New Jersey's?potential for building new nuclear energy. The task force is made up of a variety of state government departments as well as PSE&G utility, Holtec nuclear plant parts manufacturer, labor unions, and environmental groups. New Jersey is one of 13 Mid-Atlantic states and Midwest states that are connected to the'regional grid, which has been flooded with requests for electricity from data centers. During the last decade, however the net supply of power in the region has decreased. (Reporting and editing by David Gaffen in New York, Laila Kearney is reporting from New York)
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Environmentalists appeal judge’s ruling on ioneer’s Nevada lithium project
Environmental groups appealed on Wednesday a 'federal judge ruling' in favor of ioneer Rhyolite Ridge's lithium and boron project, claiming that the proposed Nevada mine would cause a rare 'wildflower' to go extinct. Below are some details. The Biden administration has approved the mine for 2024. Its decision is "science-based." Last month, a?federal court judge rejected environmentalists' claims that the U.S. government approved the project in an improper manner. The 9th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals in San Francisco heard the appeal on Wednesday. Circuit Court of Appeals in San Francisco, stating that the mine's approval had been "flawed since the beginning." Environmental group Great Basin Resource Watch said that the Rhyolite Ridge Mine is a dangerous project, especially in light of the global biodiversity crisis. * Ioneer, a company based in Australia, said that it was?confident? the judge's decision would be upheld on appeal. Chad Yeftich, spokesperson for ioneer, said: "We are committed to the rigorous and years-long review which underlies our federal permit." * There is no hearing date set for the appeal. * On Wednesday, shares of ioneer listed in New York rose by about 1%. (Reporting and editing by Ernest Scheyder)
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Sources say that Exxon will be performing spring and end-of-year overhauls of its Beaumont refinery in Texas.
Exxon Mobil Corp is planning overhauls at its Beaumont, Texas refinery that produces 612,000 barrels per day - in the spring and the end of the year, according to people familiar with the plant's operations. Sources said that Exxon will shut down the 60,000 bpd coker in May for an overhaul. The planned overhaul is expected to continue until June. Sources say that in December, the fluid catalytic 'cracker', which produces 120,000 bpd of gasoline, will be closed for an overhaul, along with two hydrotreaters, lasting until January. Cokers are used to convert residual 'crude oil' into fuels, or petroleum coke that can replace coal. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, the Beaumont refinery has the third largest crude oil processing capacity in the U.S. Kelly DaVila, spokesperson for Exxon, declined to comment on the operational details of the refinery. Beaumont's FCCU is 3.3% of the FCCU capacity on the U.S. Gulf Coast. About 60% of U.S. FCCU is produced by refineries in Texas and Louisiana. According to EIA, the refinery's coker capacity is equivalent to?7.4% U.S. Gulf Coast coking capability. Reporting by Erwin Seba, Editing by Nathan Crooks & David Gregorio
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Indiana suspends the gas tax for 30 Days amid Rising Prices
Indiana became the second U.S. state to suspend its gasoline tax in response to?the ongoing U.S. and Israeli conflict with Iran. Gov. Mike Braun, who is a Republican, announced that the suspension of the 7% usage tax on fuel would last for 30 days, and it could be extended based on the "circumstances in the Middle East." "I declare a gas-tax holiday to relieve Hoosiers from the pain of high gas prices at the pump. Braun declared that affordability was his top priority after he issued a?emergency declaration. Braun used a term for residents of Indiana to describe the situation. He said the state would "patroll the pumps" to ensure that the tax relief was passed directly on to consumers. Braun called for the attorney general to protect consumers from price gouging. On Tuesday, Iran and the U.S. reached an agreement on a ceasefire lasting two weeks that was mediated by Pakistan. However, fighting continued on Wednesday. Braun stated that it would take some time before residents of Indiana felt the effects of the ceasefire. According to the American Automobile Association, Indiana's average gas price is $4.137. AAA reported that the average gas price was $3.466 one month ago. In a?recent?/Ipsos survey, 55% of respondents said that their household finances have been affected at least "somewhat." 21% of those who felt an impact said that their finances had been affected "a lot." Georgia was the first state to suspend its gas tax last month as fuel prices continue their soaring response to the conflict that began on February 28. Trump called the increase in gas prices "a short-term rise."
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Gold reaches a three-week high following US-Iran ceasefire
On 'Wednesday', gold reached a peak of almost three weeks, while the U.S. dollar and oil prices dropped - after Washington -and- Tehran agreed on a two week truce, which eased inflation fears. As of 2:05 pm EDT (1805 GMT), spot gold was up by 0.8% to $4,740.42 an ounce. Bullion rose by more than 3% earlier in the session to its highest since March 19. U.S. Gold Futures for June Delivery?Settled 2% higher, at $4777.20. The ceasefire has calmed the markets and eased pressure. The ceasefire could ease inflationary pressures and open the door to Fed rate reductions, which would be good for gold, said Edward Meir. "But the situation is still fragile. Negotiations are needed on so many different levels. They could easily unravel, and there could be a temporary recovery on all markets. He added that we're "still not out of trouble". Pakistan mediated a ceasefire between the U.S., Iran and other parties for two weeks. Israel intensified its war in Lebanon even as Israel, the United States and Israel paused their attack on Iran. On hearing the news of a ceasefire, oil prices dropped below $100 per barrel. . The U.S. Dollar fell against a basket major currencies, making greenback priced bullion more accessible to other currency holders. Since the U.S. and Israel war against Iran began on February 28, spot gold has fallen 10% as higher energy prices have stoked inflation fears, and investors have lowered their rate-cutting hopes. The non-yielding gold is under pressure from higher interest rates, despite its inflation hedge. According to minutes from the Federal Reserve's meeting of March 17-18, policymakers began to believe that rate increases might be necessary to combat inflation, which continued to exceed its 2% target. This was especially true given the impact of the Iran War. This week, U.S. inflation indicator data, including the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index & Consumer Price Index will be released. Spot silver rose 3.3% to 75.35 cents per ounce. Platinum gained 5.3% at $2,060.45 while palladium gained 7.6% at $1,581.33.
Venezuela's Rodriguez announces an 'adequate increase' in wages starting May
Venezuela's acting president?Delcy Rod said on Wednesday that her government will make a'responsible' increase to workers' wages on 'May 1'. Her administration is looking to leverage the 'oil' and mining developments in order to improve workers' pay.
She did not provide a number for the increase in wages. Venezuela's minimum wage is 130 bolivares a month, which is equivalent to a few cents. However, many public workers earn much more, thanks to bonuses and other payments, to the tune of $150 if they are lucky. The immediate, medium-term, and long-term goal of the government is to gradually and steadily restore workers' wages through productive growth, particularly in the mining and hydrocarbons sectors. These sectors generate immediate revenue after a resurgence in production.
Venezuela will continue to "move forward" on this path as it gains more resources.
Rodriguez reiterated a call to end U.S. Sanctions against the South American nation.
Since the U.S. captured Nicolas Maduro during a raid on Caracas earlier this year, relations between the two countries have been warming. Since then, the Trump administration has been working with Rodriguez to 'expand U.S. involvement in Venezuela's mining and oil sectors.
Rodriguez, who supported recent legislative measures to allow more private and foreign investment in both sectors, stated that the government would establish a commission to determine which assets are strategic to the state. He also said anyone calling for privatization of the state oil company PDVSA will be disappointed.
(source: Reuters)