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Oil prices stable despite OPEC+ plans for a pause in production increases

Oil prices held steady Monday as the market weighed the latest OPEC+ production increase against the group's plan to pause increases in the first three quarters of 2026, along with fears of a glut of oil and weak factory data from Asia.

Brent crude futures dropped 24 cents or 0.4% to $64.53 per barrel at 10:37 am EST (1537 GMT). U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI), which is a blend of U.S. West Texas Intermediate and Brent, fell by 31 cents or 0.5% to $60.67.

OPEC+ (Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries, OPEC, and allied producers) agreed on Sunday to increase output in December by a modest 137,000 barrels per daily (bpd).

OPEC+ agreed to halt increases during the first quarter of 2019. Analysts at European financial services firm SEB stated in a report that this does not impact the projected surplus.

It shows that OPEC+ isn't forgetting about price. The price is still important. "It tells us 2026 will not be a bloodbath for oil," the authors added. Morgan Stanley increased its Brent crude forecast on Monday to $60 a barrel from $57.5. The reason given was the OPEC+ decision to pause quota increases in the first quarter next year, and the recent U.S. EU sanctions against Russian oil assets.

The International Energy Agency stated last month that the global oil market will have a surplus of up to 4 million barrels per day next year. OPEC believes that global oil demand and supply will balance out next year. At a conference held in Abu Dhabi, European oil CEOs warned against being overly pessimistic about oil. RBC analysts, a Canadian financial institution, say that Russia is still a wild card in the oil supply after U.S. sanctioned Russian producers Rosneft, Lukoil, and attacks on energy infrastructure. On Sunday, a Ukrainian drone attacked Tuapse, one of Russia’s major Black Sea oil port, causing at least one ship to be damaged and a fire. Business surveys released on Monday showed that the headwinds facing Asia's major manufacturing hubs continued in October. Asia is the largest oil-consuming region in the world.

According to the CEO of oil major TotalEnergies, Chinese oil demand has been slowing since 2020 due to China's transition towards greener energy.

Patrick Pouyanne

He said Monday. He stated that he was optimistic about the future due to the increasing demand in India.

Strong Dollar

The strong dollar made crude oil more expensive to buyers who used other currencies. The dollar was hovering at a three month high against a basket.

U.S. Federal Reserve Governor

Stephen Miran

He feels that the monetary policy is still too restrictive.

Risk of a recession. In the coming weeks, the U.S. consumers' durability as an economic prop may be put to test as rising healthcare costs, a possible loss of federal food assistance, and a shaky job market outlook strain family budgets.

Donald Trump, the president of the United States, said on Sunday that U.S. troops could be deployed to

Nigeria

Or carry out airstrikes to stop what he described as the killing of a large number of Christians in this West African nation, an OPEC-member and Africa's largest oil producer. Reporting by Scott DiSavino and Shadia Nasralla, London; additional reporting by Florence Tan, Singapore; editing by David Goodman and David Gregorio

(source: Reuters)