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The market is looking at another OPEC+ production hike as the oil price drops for a second consecutive week

The oil price was on course for a second weekly drop on Friday. This was due to expectations of a further OPEC+ production increase in July, and new uncertainty following the latest legal twist that kept President Donald Trump's Tariffs in place.

Brent crude futures fell 31 cents or 0.48% to $63.84 per barrel at 0424 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude fell 31 cents or 0.51% to $60.63 per barrel. Brent's July futures contract expires on Friday.

The two contracts have both fallen by 1.5% this week.

Investors priced in a further increase by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC+), a group of eight members, at their meeting on Saturday.

Robert Rennie, Westpac's director of commodity and carbon analysis, said in a recent note that the stage was set for a bumper increase to production. This could be higher than the 411,000-barrels-per day decision made at the two previous meetings.

JPMorgan analysts said in a report that the potential price hike is due to the fact that global surpluses have widened from 2.2 million barrels a day to 2.2 millions. This likely means a price increase to stimulate a supply response and restore equilibrium.

Prices are expected to stay within the current ranges, before moving into the high 50s by year's end.

The U.S. tariffs will remain in place after a federal appellate court temporarily reinstated the tariffs on Thursday. This reversed a Wednesday decision by a trade court to block the most comprehensive of the duties.

As traders assessed its impact, the block sent oil prices down more than 1%. Analysts predicted that uncertainty would continue as tariff wars progressed.

Since Trump's "Liberation Day", April 2, announcement of tariffs, oil prices have fallen by more than 10%.

The tariff war has fueled recession fears, which have clouded demand. Washington has added to the U.S. China trade tensions by ordering a wide range of companies to cease shipping goods to China, including butane and ethane, without a licence and revoking licenses granted to certain suppliers.

Analysts at JPMorgan noted that global oil demand increased from the previous weeks, mainly due to a rebound in U.S. consumption of oil, as a result of the long Memorial Day weekend and the influx of travelers.

They said that the global oil demand growth is currently at a rate of approximately 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) as of May 28. This is 250,000 bpd less than expected. Colleen Liu and Siyi Howe reported from Beijing, while Sonali Paul edited the article.

(source: Reuters)