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South Africa's Eskom targets no power outages for the next four months
Eskom, the South African utility, said it was optimistic for the power outlook during the winter in the Southern Hemisphere. It aims to avoid any electricity cuts within the next four month if breakdowns remain at current levels. Eskom's problems supplying power to Africa’s largest economy have curbed growth for over a decade. But a turnaround in the plant's performance last year led to no cuts during winter and nine months of its operation. Eskom's Chief Executive Dan Marokane said at a briefing there would be no power cuts until August, if the unplanned outages remained below 13,000 megawatts. This is its base case. The number of days of unplanned power outages will increase to 21 if the outages exceed 15,000 MW. Eskom's nominal generating capacity was over 46,000MW in March 2024. This included coal plants and nuclear power stations, as well as some smaller plants which burn diesel or water to produce electricity. Marokane stated that the power system is more reliable than it was in previous years. He said the 14 days without electricity in January to April of this year were a temporary setback, and that power availability was improving. Marokane said: "This winter's outlook prediction is based on an improved operational performance and overall effectiveness." Reporting by Sfundo parakozov. (Editing by Alexander Winning, Mark Potter and Mark Potter.)
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UN document shows US attempts to undermine global development finance efforts
A document from the United Nations that was seen by revealed that the United States wants to weaken an international deal designed to help developing countries who are struggling with climate change, among other things. The Trump administration is against draft reforms to the global financial system that are intended to assist developing countries. This includes taxation, credit rating and fossil fuel subsidy. The administration wants to remove all mentions of "climate", "gender equality", and "sustainability". The document, which was previously unknown, sheds light on the Trump administration's efforts to impose an "America First", including opposition to efforts that slow climate change and promote diversification, on institutions at the core of solving global systemic crises. The 4th International Conference on Financing for Development, which takes place every decade, will be held in Seville, Spain in June. Its aim is to influence the strategic direction taken by the development finance institutions around the world. At FFD3, countries agreed to expand tax cooperation so that developing nations could set the rules. As of May last year, more than 140 countries are involved. Tom Mitchell, Executive Director of the International Institute for Environment and Development said, "This conference aims to bring together world leaders and set the rules and priorities for funding development goals in the next decade." The U.N. Secretariat assisted the Mexico, Nepal and Zambia Permanent Representatives to compile the negotiating draft of April 11, which is annotated by the positions of all 193 countries involved in the discussion. The document was a bid to dampen further reforms. Scott Bessent of the U.S. Treasury Department had already reacted against the ongoing changes in the World Bank and International Monetary Fund's fight against climate-change. The document shows that the U.S. is looking to remove the reference to "a package of reforms" in relation to sustainable development. It wants to replace the line that promises to "commit reform to the international financial infrastructure" with the pledge to "recognize and enhance its resilience to current and future crises and challenges." These changes in language can be used to support future actions or inactions in discussions by indicating the level of commitment. In an email, Florencia Nino, spokesperson for the U.N. secretary-general Antonio Guterres said that the Secretary-General acknowledged the need to overcome many challenges before the conference. However, he urged all countries to "be at the table focused on solutions in Sevilla," she added. Requests for comments from the White House and Treasury Department were not answered. The State Department declined comment. The U.S. position on development is tougher now under Trump. However, the document negotiated shows that the U.S. remains in favor of initiatives such as developing countries working closer with the private sector and fostering financial literacy and innovation. CLIMATE CHANGE The global reforms aim to help the poorer nations better cope with climate change-related weather disasters and boost economic growth by using low carbon energy instead of traditional fossil fuels. Donald Trump, the president of the United States, has withdrawn from UN climate agreement in Paris. He also slashed U.S. Foreign Development Aid by more than 80%. This was part of an overhaul government led by Elon Musk. The U.S. has objected to several areas in the FFD4 document, including a call to countries to investigate "global solidarité levies", which could include taxes on high-polluting activities or super-rich people to finance sustainable development. The levies, if included, could be discussed in the U.N. tax negotiations this year. They would also support a taskforce led by France Kenya and Barbados, which aims to create such taxes for smaller groups of countries. Russia, Saudi Arabia, and China are also among the countries that object. The document also shows that the U.S. wants to remove a paragraph urging companies to pay taxes to countries where economic activities occur; a section on enhancing tax transparency in developing countries; and a section on phase-out of inefficient fossil fuel subsides. The FFD4 document shows that the U.S. is trying to remove a paragraph about reforming the rating system. It showed that rating agencies should be more lenient with nations who voluntarily restructure debt in order to invest in environmentally friendly projects. Documents show that the U.S. is also against a commitment by countries to receive "adequate funding and uninterrupted at appropriate terms for social protection, and other essential social expenditures during shocks and crisis," according to the document. The draft agreement is likely to be revised as the countries continue their negotiations in May before settling on a final document by mid-June. The U.S.'s position places pressure on other nations to accept a weaker agreement, as the talks are aimed at adopting a deal through consensus. (Reporting and editing by Dawn Kopecki, Rod Nickel and Daphne Psaledakis Additional reporting by Kate Abnett in London and Simon Jessop at Washington)
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Goldman Sachs lowers its oil price forecast following OPEC+'s decision to increase output
Goldman Sachs has reduced its oil forecast after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC+) and its allies decided to increase oil production. The bank stated this in a Sunday note. The bank expects Brent crude oil to average $60/bbl for the remainder of 2025, and $56/bbl by 2026. This is a $2 decrease from its previous forecast. It also reduced its forecast of West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) by $3/bbl. Now, it projects that the average price for WTI will be $56/bbl through 2025. OPEC+ decided on Saturday to increase oil output for a second consecutive month. The June production was increased by 411,000 barrels a day despite lower prices and weakened expectations of demand. Goldman Sachs sees the OPEC+ agreement as a long term equilibrium strategy aimed to maintain internal cohesion, and strategically regulate U.S. shale oil supply despite relatively low inventories. The bank has now increased its estimate for the final OPEC+ increase in production to 0.41 million barrels a day (mb/d) from 0.14 mb/d. This revised forecast is based on the group's recent decision and stronger-than-expected economic activity data, suggesting that the expected demand slowdown may not yet be evident enough for OPEC+ to slow the pace of production increases when determining July production levels on June 1, the bank noted. Goldman Sachs is of the opinion that despite the tight fundamentals in the oil market, the high level of spare capacity and the high risk associated with recessions are factors that skew risks for the oil price to the downside. Brent crude futures traded at $60.02 per barrel at 0802 GMT. U.S. West Texas intermediate crude was trading at $56.96 per barrel. (Reporting from Anmol Choubey, Bengaluru; Editing by Louise Heavens).
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French spot prices rise due to higher demand and falling wind output
The French spot price rose on Monday as a result of an expected rise in electricity consumption, while the wind power generation is expected to decrease throughout the region. LSEG data show that the price for French baseload electricity for Tuesday at 0835 GMT was 19 euros ($21.51). This is up from a Friday closing price of 10 euro per MWh for delivery on Monday. Data showed that the German equivalent contract had not yet begun trading. Data showed that the contract for Monday deliveries had not also traded on Friday. In line with the overall bullish trend, France's residual loads are expected to be the most significant gains in the region Tuesday. Riccardo Paraviero, LSEG analyst, stated that the signal for tomorrow was sideways to bullish for Germany. This is due to the higher demand at home and the "significant" increase in residual loads in the neighbouring regions. He added that Germany will be a net-exporter during the sunny hours of Tuesday, due to increased solar power production. LSEG data indicated that the German wind output is expected to drop by 820 megawatts to 13 gigawatts on Tuesday, while French output will be reduced by 1.1 GW down to 9 GW. The data indicated that the German solar generation is expected to increase by 1.6 GW to 13.1 GW on February 2. On Tuesday, power consumption in Germany will increase by 1.3 GW - to 54.2 GW - while in France it is expected to rise by 1.6 GW – to 45.1 GW. The French nuclear capacity has increased by two percentage points, to 63%. The German baseload power for the year ahead increased by 0.2%, to 84 Euros/MWh. In France, it was between 62 and 64.3 Euros. The benchmark carbon contract in Europe was down by 0.8% to 68.24 euro per metric tonne. $1 = 0.8832 Euros (Reporting and Editing by Varun K K; Reporting by Alban Kcher)
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EUROPE GAS - Dutch prices are easing, but the market is seeking direction
Dutch wholesale gas prices fell on Monday, despite cooler weather conditions, lower renewable energy generation, and possible Asian demand for liquefied gas. According to LSEG, the benchmark Dutch front-month contracts was down 0.47 euros at 32.70 Euro per megawatt hour MWh, or $/10.98 mmBtu at 0838 GMT. Due to a British holiday, the British market will be closed, which may dampen overall trading activity. A drop in oil price could also affect wider sentiment. Analysts at Engie EnergyScan stated in a recent report that Dutch prices had fallen a bit, but that the market was still uncertain about the direction of the price. They said that the cooler temperatures and lower renewable output of energy this week will support gas demand in heating and power generation. Analysts also noted that Bloomberg reported Chinese LNG buyers have resumed buying cargoes on the spot market as prices are falling. They added: "These purchases would support prices if they are confirmed." Europe and Asia are competing for cargoes on the global market. Gas Infrastructure Europe reports that the European Union's gas storage facilities are currently 40.74% full. Greg Molnar said that storage injections had increased by 70% since the end April, when compared with the same period last year. The EU is on track to meet its target of 80-90% by the start of the next heating period, but it depends on the amount and quality LNG that comes to Europe, the Chinese demand for super-chilled fuel, and the European gas-for power consumption. The EU is expected to announce on Tuesday a roadmap for the phase-out of its remaining gas relations with Moscow. It has committed to ending these ties by 2027. However, legal options are limited. The benchmark contract on the European carbon markets fell by 0.51 euros to 68.23 euro per metric ton. Nora Buli reports from Oslo. Mark Potter edited the article.
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Oil falls, Taiwan's Dollar surges as central banks pack the week
Oil prices fell over 2% Monday, after the oil-producing group OPEC+ decided to increase oil production. Meanwhile, Taiwan's dollar surged up to nearly three-year-highs as world markets began a week of central banks. European shares were just below Friday’s one-month highs, while U.S. Equity Futures fell and overall trading was subdued due to public holidays in Japan China and Britain. Brent crude and U.S. West Texas Crude futures each fell by more than $1 after a decision made by OPEC over the weekend to increase oil production. This decision fueled concerns about an influx of more supply into a market that is clouded with uncertainty due to a lackluster demand outlook. The U.S. Federal Reserve meeting and the Bank of England meeting later this week are the main focus of attention as the markets await to see what the major central banks think about the growth and inflation outlook following the increased uncertainty caused by the U.S. Tariff policy. Donald Trump, President of the United States, said that on Sunday, the United States met with a number of countries, including China, to discuss trade deals. His main priority was to get a fair deal with China. In recent days, optimism about a possible de-escalation in trade tensions between China and the U.S. has helped boost markets. European shares are trading at levels just below those seen before Trump’s major tariff announcement on April 2, which roiled the markets. Jan von Gerich, Nordea’s chief market analyst, said that if trade agreements do not meet expectations there will be downside risk for the markets. The S&P 500 index has recovered around 17% since its more than one-year-old lows last month. TAIWAN DOLLAR SURFACE The Taiwan dollar was the star of the currency market after two straight sessions of strong gains against the U.S. dollar. The Taiwan dollar is poised to make its largest single-day increase against the U.S. Dollar since the 1980s. It could rise as high as 29,59 per U.S. dollars. Last trading was at 30.04. The 3% increase on Monday has fuelled speculation about a revaluation to gain U.S. concessions in trade and highlights a wider re-rating the economic prospects of the region. The Taiwan dollar has appreciated at a rate I have never seen before, said a senior executive in the financial sector of Taiwan. He spoke on condition that he remain anonymous as he was not authorized to address the media. The central bank allows hot money to enter Taiwan. Taiwan's Office of Trade Negotiations said on Monday that the U.S. tariff talks last week with Taiwan did not include the exchange rate, and Taiwan's central banks also did not participate in the discussions. The dollar fell 0.5% to 144.16yen, while the euro gained 0.21% in London, despite a UK holiday. The market is focused on this week's Federal Reserve meeting, where rates are expected to remain unchanged. Trump said that he will not remove Jerome Powell from his position as Federal Reserve chair before the end of Powell's term in May 2026. He called Powell "a total stiff", and repeated calls to the Fed for interest rate reductions. Nordea's von Gerich said, "The Fed is the main event and what is going on in politics is not forgotten." In Europe, attention was focused on Romania, where the hard-right eurosceptic George Simion has won the first round in Romania's presidential rerun election on Sunday. Political observers claim that a Simion win could isolate Romania, undermine private investment, and destabilise NATO’s eastern flank where Ukraine is fighting an invasion by Russia dating back three years. Reporting by Dhara Raasinghe. Wayne Cole contributed additional reporting from Sydney. Mark Potter (Editor)
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Volvo Cars sales slump 11% in April due to the decline of fully electric vehicles
Volvo Cars announced on Monday a 11% decline in April sales, to 58.881 vehicles, compared with a year ago, which sent its shares lower. Volvo Cars, owned by China's Geely and majority-owned, reported in a press release that sales of electric vehicles fell 32%, accounting for only 20% of the total volume of sales. The sales of all electrified vehicles, including plug-in hybrids and electric cars, fell by 16%, accounting for 45%. Volvo Cars under pressure from Donald Trump's new administration Tariffs Juggling is the task Working with Geely, to reduce costs and continue to sell cars to American consumers who prefer hybrids and combustion engine models. Despite stiff competition from Chinese automakers who sell more affordable EVs, the Sweden-based company wants to win Chinese customers along with its European counterparts. In April, shares of Volvo Cars rose by a staggering 45%. Withdrawal In the morning, its earnings forecasts for the next two-years in face of tariffs were down by 3%, bringing the year-to date slump to 29%. The company didn't provide any details on regional sales.
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Official: India Government finalising response after top court cancels JSW Steel-Bhushan Deal
A government official revealed on Monday that the Indian government had discussed with banks an order by a court to cancel JSW Steel’s four-year old buyout of Bhushan Steel and Power, and was finalising its response. The Supreme Court nullified JSW’s takeover of Bhushan Steel four years ago, under the country’s insolvency laws, and ordered its liquidation. This affected the deal’s bankers who had been paid. "I've already discussed (the order with) all lenders." We have taken a stance, we've studied the judgement and we've gotten our lawyers' opinion on the judgment," M Nagaraju said, secretary of India's Department of Financial Services. We are now deciding in the government how we will approach the judgement. We will be finalising soon." Bhushan Power had a debt of over 470 billion rupees (5.58 billion dollars) to its creditors at the time it was shortlisted by the Reserve Bank of India in 2017 to be admitted to the country's Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code (IBC). JSW Steel was the winner of the resolution application with a bid of 197 billion rupees ($2,35 billion) for Bhushan power. The acquisition is expected to be completed by 2021. JSW Steel shares fell around 1% Monday after dropping 5.5% on Friday. JSW announced to the exchanges that it would decide its next course of action on Friday.
The core profit of Vallourec drops due to lower tube prices in North America
France's Vallourec announced a 24% decline in its core profit for the fourth quarter on Thursday. It cited lower average selling prices for its steel tubes, its primary market, in North America.
Vallourec makes tubings for oil and gas markets, low-carbon energies and industrial markets. Its operating earnings before interest taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), fell to 214 millions euros ($224) in the fourth quarter of 2024. This was due to a 27% decline in North American tubes.
In the fourth quarter, around 92% (globally) of Vallourec’s total revenues came from the tubes business.
In a conference call with journalists, CEO Philippe Guillemot stated that prices had fallen throughout the year. However, they started from a high base.
The group's operating EBITDA is expected to be between 180 and 215 millions euros in the first quarter 2025.
It said that based on bookings in recent months, international steel tubes shipments are expected to increase in the second six-month period compared to first six, leading to an improved EBITDA per tonne.
After completing its financial restructuring and paying off the remaining debt, Vallourec confirmed that it would also pay its first dividend for 10 years at 1.50 euros a share. $1 = 0.9555 Euros (Reporting and editing by Milla Nissi in Gdansk, Mathias de Rozario in Gdansk)
(source: Reuters)