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Morning Bid Europe-Chips are jolted by a shift in momentum for AI
Tom Westbrook gives us a look at what the future holds for European and global markets. Chip stocks in Asia fell on Tuesday due to the twin threats of Chinese competition rising and questions over funding and sustainability of AI infrastructure boom. South Korea's KOSPI fell nearly 10%, tripping a circuit breaker. Japan's Nikkei dropped 4.4%. The rally has been so strong that both markets are still the leaders for the year, even though they have now reached multi-month lows. Nvidia fell 5% Monday after a Wall Street Journal article reported that the chipmaker had been in discussions to provide $250 billion worth of financing guarantees for a?OpenAI Data Centre. The report stated that the guarantee would only cover Nvidia inside the center, but that financing OpenAI chips worth up to $35 billion was also being discussed, bringing attention to the circular nature of AI build-out expenditure. Europe's chip leader was also not spared. ASML fell?8.5% following The Information's report that China had begun manufacturing its own immersion deep ultraviolet machines, which are critical to chipmaking and were long dominated exclusively by the Dutch group. Investors are wondering if China's semiconductor sector is moving beyond a catch-up phase to a genuine contender. CXMT soared to the top of China’s stock market on Monday by valuation, causing investors to worry that dominant chip manufacturers may have to share AI spoils more widely. Apple was reported to have asked the U.S. for assurances that CXMT would not be added to a blacklist. The picture of hyperscalers' spending plans will be completed by the earnings at Apple, Meta and Microsoft later this week. Oil prices fell, but that was little help to stocks, or even bonds. They held steady during Tuesday's Asia session, even though crude futures continued their losses. The markets see an approximately 38% chance of a U.S. interest rate increase this week. The following are the key developments that may influence Tuesday's markets: Consumer confidence in France and the U.S. Earnings of Mercedes-Benz (editing by Shri Navaratnam), Barclays, Man Group EssilorLuxottica Logitech Rio Tinto Kering Ford Mondelez Visa NXP Seagate Coca-cola UPS Boeing
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Copper prices fall as rate hike expectations weigh on demand
The copper prices fell on Tuesday as 'lingering bets on an interest rate increase in the U.S. threatened to dampen demand. Crude oil prices also declined as investors assessed a pause in U.S. attacks on 'Iran. By 0300 GMT, the benchmark three-month metric ton of?copper traded on London Metal Exchange had fallen 0.5% to $13,664 per metric tonne. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's most traded copper contract fell 0.14% to 104,800 Yuan ($15.484.86) per ton. The market is waiting for the U.S. Federal Reserve's meeting on Wednesday and the effect of a possible lull in the fighting between Iran and the U.S. Analysts from the?Chinese brokerage Galaxy Futures said that despite the lower crude oil price, expectations of more Federal Reserve rate increases have increased. According to CME FedWatch, 62% of market participants believe that the Fed's interest rates will remain unchanged, and 38% expect at least a 25% increase. Copper market fears that higher rates will dampen economic activity and reduce demand. Red metal prices have risen due to expectations of increased demand from AI infrastructure, electric vehicles and electrification. The jittery stock market also affected traders' appetite for risk. On Tuesday, chipmakers were the main culprits in the Asian stock market's decline. They were worried about the financing requirements of the AI boom. Galaxy Futures analysts stated that "the?market is entering a week of heavy earnings reporting, and sentiment remains cautious." Aluminium prices were down 0.35% at the LME and stable on theSHFE. Disrupted Middle East supply has caused a massive drop in stocks, as well as total stock levels at LME-registered storage warehouses. The lowest level on record since 1998. Nickel?slid 0.16%, and tin fell 1.71%. On the SHFE, nickel dropped 0.77%, tin fell 1.5% and zinc declined 0.5%.
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Gold falls as dollar strength weighs on gold; attention turns to Fed meeting
The dollar strengthened on Tuesday and gold prices fell. Markets were looking for clues about the future of interest rates in the Federal Reserve's policy announcement. Gold spot fell by 0.7% at $4,044.81 an ounce as of 0250 GMT. It had risen as high as 1% Monday. U.S. Gold Futures for August Delivery fell 0.8% to $4.045.40. Dollars are nearing a month-high, which makes greenback bullion prices more expensive for those who hold other currencies. Ilya Spivak is the head of global macro for finance content network Tastylive. The U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to conclude its two-day policy meeting on Wednesday. According to CME FedWatch, 62% of market participants believe that the Fed will keep interest rates at their current level. However, 38% expect a rate increase at least 25 basis points. The markets are pricing in a 81% chance of a hike during the September meeting of the central bank. On Monday, President Donald Trump called on the Fed lowering interest rates. He said that the U.S. would have the lowest rate of interest in the world. Trump said that on Monday, the United States was having "good discussions" with Iran. He also stated that there is a possibility of a 'deal' to resolve their conflict. However, he warned that strikes will resume if the negotiations fail. Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Iraq reported drone attacks on Sunday, indicating that Tehran had quickly tested the pause of the U.S. campaign. Spivak said that gold will likely rise above $4,200 an ounce if the Fed meeting does not produce language that is "setting the foundation for a rate hike in September". Silver spot fell by 1.9%, to $57.30 an ounce. Platinum lost 1%, to $1605.14, and palladium dropped 1.6%, to $1271.09. (Reporting and editing by Varun H. K. and Ronojoya Mazumdar in Bengaluru)
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Australia builds first oil refinery at home in 60 years, to improve fuel security
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese announced on Tuesday that Australia will be considering building its first?oil? refinery in over 60 years. The war in the Middle East has squeezed supplies from abroad and highlighted the urgency of improving energy security. Albanese stated that the project would help to build Australia's sovereignty and resilience in the fuel sector, which could shield the country against future supply shocks. Albanese stated that if the project is deemed?feasible', Perdaman, a chemical industrial producer in Western Australia will build a new large-scale refinery. Albanese, a reporter in Western Australia's Pilbara Region, told reporters that "the war?in?the Middle East... has an impact here just like it does all over the world." Building national resilience makes Australia less susceptible to events happening around the globe. Albanese announced that his government, along with the Western Australia State Government, will spend A$4,000,000 ($2.8 million) jointly on a feasibility study for the refinery. Albanese continued, "We want the project to be a success and that's why we are looking for the best location. Australia imports about 80% its fuel and is racing to secure supplies in the face of the Iran War. A report by the Australian Treasury warned that global oil markets have become more vulnerable, with "weaker buffers against supply-shocks". The treasury told Treasurer Jim Chalmers that global oil inventories?have decreased since the conflict in the Middle East has intensified. Meanwhile, refined fuel markets now face a?risk of further tightening?, it said. The majority of Australia's oil refineries were constructed in the 1950s and 1960s. However, high operating costs as well as the rise of large refineries across Asia have forced many of them to close over the last three decades. Ampol's Queensland Refinery and Viva Energy's facility in Victoria, both in the east of the country, are now the only two active refineries. In 2000 there were eight. Western Australia's lone refinery will be shut down by 2021, after BP converted its 146,000 barrels a day Kwinana facility into a fuel terminal. ($1 = 1.4306 Australian dollars)
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Asia markets sell off in a broad scale due to AI fears
Asian markets dropped on Tuesday, led by chipmakers, on concerns?about massive funding requirements of the AI boom. A slide in oil prices didn't do much to lift bonds, and traders were worried about U.S. interest rate hikes coming this week. South Korea's KOSPI plunged more than 8 percent to a low of three months, setting off a circuit breaker. Japan's Nikkei fell 4% after a drop of 2.2% for the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index. Nvidia's shares fell 5% overnight, after the Wall Street Journal reported that the company was in discussions to provide approximately $250 billion in financial guarantees for OpenAI in connection with a massive data center project. CXMT shares in Shanghai surged 466% on their debut day, highlighting the growing interest of investors and the competitive threat from Chinese competitors. Chris Weston is the head of Pepperstone's research. He said that there was a growing sense of optimism in mainland markets regarding China's ability build a global competitive AI ecosystem. The Information reported that China had?also started manufacturing locally developed immersion deep UV lithography machines. This chipmaking tool was long dominated exclusively by Dutch supplier ASML. ASML's shares fell 8.5% on Monday. South 'Korea SK Hynix shares fell by nearly 11%, while Samsung Electronics shares dropped more than 9%. In Tokyo, Kioxia was down 18% and?Tokyo Electron was down 9.8%. CXMT, the chip-making indexes and CXMT were also lower in early trading. OIL SLIDES US YIELDS DIPLEAD Brent crude futures continued their nearly 9% drop on Monday, dropping to $87.55 per barrel as hostilities between Iran and the U.S. cooled following Washington's sudden suspension of airstrikes on Saturday. Donald Trump stated on Monday that the United States and Iran were having "good discussions" and that there was a possibility of a deal. The break in fighting has pushed benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year yields down by four basis points, to 4.64%. Shorter-term rates have not moved much. The Federal Reserve is expected to hike by 25 basis points this Wednesday, according to traders. "The U.S. - Iran War, which is driving up the price of crude, remains the main determinant for what will 'happen in the global economy over the next few months and, as a result, what informs the central bank policy forecasts at the margin," said Thierry?Wizman, currency & rates strategist?at Macquarie Group. We expect the Fed to tighten its bias this week. The expectation of a hike?sooner rather than later' kept the dollar at $1.1370, the euro at $1.14 and the Australian Dollar just below 70 cents. The yen was trading at 163.78 per dollar, barely above a four decade low. Markets are on edge about Japan interfering in the currency pairing, especially if the Bank of Japan holds rates this week, and causes another yen drop. Wizman said that if BoJ communication was not hawkish, and USD/JPY continues to rise, traders can expect an official response. This could include verbal interventions, rate checks or direct FX market interventions, possibly on Friday. (Reporting and Editing by Shri Navaratnam).
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Whitehaven Coal's output in 2026 is at the top of its guidance range, but costs are at the low end.
Whitehaven Coal, Australia's largest coal producer, said Tuesday that its annual sales and output were near the top end of their guidance range due to the recovery of its Queensland mines. However, the company expects its costs for the full year to be near the lower end of the forecast. As the Sydney-based coal mining company tries to absorb higher diesel costs linked to Middle?East conflict, it is important to consider cost forecast. Whitehaven has said that unit costs are expected to be around A$132 ($92.29), towards the low end of their forecast range. This is after they achieved savings in line with its annualised target between A$60 and A$80 million. The company made A$222 for every ton of thermal coal it sold in the 'fourth quarter,' up from A$189 per ton a year ago, thanks to a stronger Asian demand after the supply of liquefied gas was interrupted. The managed run-of mine production for the year ending June 30 was 40.3 Mt, up 3% on the previous year and close to the upper end of the 37-41 Mt range. The managed coal sales increased 8%, to 32.7 Mt. This was within the estimates of 29.5 to 33 Mt. The Visible Alpha consensus estimate was that fourth-quarter production would rise by 1.3%, to 10.7 mt. Queensland operations including the Blackwater and Daunia Mines, which were purchased from BHP Group for $4.1 billion in early 2024, have recovered from weather disruptions in previous quarters, with production increasing 41% sequentially. New South Wales' mines including Maules Creek Narrabri, and Gunnedah posted a 1.6% increase in quarterly production year-on-year, but output fell by 8% from the previous quarter due to tougher mining conditions. Whitehaven shares were down 1.1% at 0058 GMT, following the declines of the energy subindex and the wider market. $1 = 1.4302 Australian Dollars (reporting and editing by Shilpi Major and Subhranshu S Ahu in Bengaluru).
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Origin Energy in Australia flags the possible exposure of data for about 900,000.
Origin Energy, a company in Australia, said that on Tuesday, data relating to 900,000 customers, both current and former, may have been accessed. The company is contacting the affected individuals. Last week, the country's largest electricity and gas retailer announced that it was investigating an alleged security breach which involved unauthorised access to some customer information. Origin stated on July 23 that the affected data could include financial information, such as last few digits of a customer’s credit card number or bank account number. As of 0121 GMT, shares of the company were down 1.7% at A$10.47. The broader ASX200 index was 0.3% lower. On its website, the company announced that it had finished its initial review phase and was notifying customers affected. It also offered identity protection and cybersecurity support services. Sydney-based company reviewed a possible security threat in early July but stated that, 'based on the information available at the?time, it was not considered credible. The company said that new information it received on the 22nd of July indicated that a possible security incident could?have taken place, prompting them to inform customers and investors. Origin has engaged cybersecurity and forensic experts, taken steps to secure its systems and is continuing its investigation into the incident. Customers are urged to be vigilant and watch out for scams.
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South Korea's KOSPI falls 7% as the global chipmaker sale deepens
South Korean shares fell 'on Tuesday, as a global sale of chipmakers weighed down on technology heavyweights. Pressured 'by concerns about a 'intensifying competitive environment - from China - and a steep drop in SK Hynix shares listed in the U.S. The benchmark KOSPI fell 500.47 points or 7.41% to 6,253.81, prompting "sidecar" trading restrictions on both the KOSPI index and junior Kosdaq, temporarily suspending programme trading. Memory-chip manufacturer SK Hynix fell 10% after 'its American Depositary Receipts (ADRs), which were issued in the United States, dropped to a new record low and below their original U.S. offering prices. Samsung Electronics fell 9.15%, another major index component. The KOSPI weighting is dominated by the two largest chipmakers, who together make up more than half the market. This amplifies the effect of the sell-off across the entire sector. The market sentiment was further dampened due to developments in China. These included a blockbuster debut of ChangXin Memory Technologies, (CXMT), and reports that a Chinese state-backed company began manufacturing immersion DUV equipment. Kim Seokhwan, a Seoul based analyst at Mirae Asset Securities said that the market is more concerned about CXMT's potential to expand its capacity?to Korean rival companies and?technology following?its IPO. Reporting by Cynthia Kim, Editing by Sherry Phillips
Western miners push for greater metals costs to fend off Chinese rivals
CHALLIS NATIONAL FOREST, Idaho, July 22 (). T he just U.S. cobalt mine sits fallow in the northern Idaho. woods, a mothballed hunk of steel and dirt that is too expensive. for its owner to run because Chinese rivals have flooded. worldwide markets with cheap materials of the bluish metal used in. electrical lorry batteries and electronics.
Jervois Global, which dug the mine into the side of. an almost 8,000-foot (2,400-meter) mountain, watched helplessly. in 2015 as cobalt prices plunged after China's CMOC. Group opened the Kisanfu mine in the Democratic. Republic of Congo, pushing international production of the metal to an. all-time high.
The Idaho website, which Jervois bought in 2019, was idled in. June 2023 just weeks before it was set to open. More than 250. workers lost their tasks. A skeleton team now rotates unused rock. crushing devices weekly to keep it from flattening under its. own weight.
We were simple with our staff and told them: 'This. is everything about the price of cobalt,' website manager Matthew. Lengerich told throughout a see to the center. Jervois. says cobalt rates require to reach a minimum of $20 per pound for the. website to open. However prices sat near $12.17 in July.
A similar predicament faces BHP, Albemarle and. other Western mining companies attempting to take on metals. produced by Chinese-linked companies, a few of which usage. coal-generated electrical energy, kid labor or other practices not. meeting the standards set by lots of governments and makers.
Western miners state their rivals have intrinsic cost. benefits that make it possible for rapid production expansions even as. costs for cobalt, lithium and nickel have plunged more than a. 3rd in the past 18 months. Functional expenses for a lot of these. Western business have, as a result, been surpassing what market. prices will cover.
That has sustained growing calls from some policymakers and. miners, consisting of Jervois and Albemarle, for a two-tier prices. system with a premium for sustainably produced metals, according. to interviews with more than 3 lots traders, financiers,. executives, acquiring representatives, and prices firms.
The strategy is to charge more for a metal that is produced. sustainably, whether that is through direct transactions or through. multiple rates for a metal listed through futures exchanges,. depending upon production methods. For instance, there would be one. rate for standard nickel and another for green nickel.
Western miners merely can't compete with China, and China. has revealed the willingness to drive market value way, way down,. stated Morgan Bazilian, director of the Payne Institute for Public. Policy at the Colorado School of Mines.
Two-tier pricing could significantly move how metals required for. energy transition have actually been purchased and offered for centuries yet. also minimize market openness as miners might bypass metals. exchanges to work out directly with consumers.
It might also, two analysts told , cause several. definitions of just what constitutes green metal.
' COMMITMENTS HAVE An EXPENSE'
Market leaders have actually pushed for two rates structures for. a number of years, however the call for change began gaining more. attention from financiers, policymakers and clients last fall. as Western governments grew more concerned about Chinese. competitors.
In conferences throughout Washington and Brussels, mining. executives have been pleading with governments for some kind of. intervention till two-tiered prices is more extensively welcomed,. suggesting that tariffs, supply chain transparency requirements,. or government insurance for mines could be possible solutions,. three market sources said.
U.S. and E.U. officials have actually independently expressed sympathy. with the mining industry, according to two of the sources, but. have actually up until now been loath to inject themselves into the mechanics. of how costs are set by exchanges and others.
I do not wish to state what the markets should or shouldn't do. to guarantee strong ESG practices, said the U.S. State. Department's Jose Fernandez, who oversees a program designed to. facilitate metals supply offers. But it is true that all of. those dedications have a cost.
As a result, mining industry customers such as car manufacturers. remain in the unpleasant position of attempting to keep their expenses. low while preserving secure and varied metals supplies. Some. deals are taking shape, prodded in part by policies tied to. emissions.
The European Union by 2027 will need EV manufacturers to. show where they procure metals and the carbon footprint for. their production. Refusal to comply would suggest an EV can't be. sold in the region, an action not yet taken by the United States. however one extensively seen as the most aggressive worldwide to enhance. supply chain transparency and most likely to sustain premium metals. agreements.
In Canada last year, Northern Graphite started. effectively requiring a premium from clients desiring. guaranteed North American products of the battery metal.
Teck Resources previously this year started selling. a gently processed type of copper known as concentrate to. Aurubis, a source with direct knowledge said. The. deal does not rely on exchange prices and guarantees. Aurubis a consistent supply of ESG-compliant concentrate that it. turns into copper for sale to the automobile market.
Teck declined to comment. Aurubis said it sees the method to a. green-friendly copper industry as a joint task for the entire. worth chain, which requires to be honored from the raw material. provider to the end consumer.
Consumers in the meantime do not deal with a charge if they do not. source sustainable metals, however they increasingly face a. reputational risk.
The concern is really for automobile companies: Are you okay with. something that may be priced lower or are you willing to pay. premiums understanding that this is sourced sustainably in the right. way? said Michael Scherb, CEO of Appian Capital Advisory, a. private equity firm that buys mining companies.
' WEATHER THE STORM'
BHP, the world's biggest mining business, said this month it. would suspend operations at its Australia nickel mines due to. the substantial economic challenges driven by a worldwide. oversupply of nickel.
The move was a blow to a company that had unsuccessfully bet. its customers would want to pay a premium for nickel. produced in a country that mines sustainably.
BHP alerted that almost two-thirds of Australia's nickel. market remains in threat of closing amid low market value sustained by. a 153% boost in Indonesia's nickel from 2020 through the end. of in 2015 due to Huayou Cobalt and others -. production that environmentalists say has actually partly come by tearing. up the country's huge jungles.
U.S. officials are motivating Jakarta to improve the. nation's mining requirements. Huayou Cobalt did not respond to a. ask for remark.
Australia's nickel industry is among the cleanest in the. world mainly due to how it manages carbon emissions, according. to data from ESG consultancy Skarn Associates. Nickel processed. in Indonesia gives off more than 5 times the amount of carbon as. production in Australia, the data reveal, with emissions from. China's nickel industry nearly 7 times worse than Australia.
Albemarle, the top international producer of lithium, laid off. staff in January in the middle of low costs triggered in part by increase. production from Yongxing Special Materials Technology. and others in China.
If there isn't an incentive above current costs, you're. not going to get the financial investment you need to build the domestic. ( U.S.) supply chain, stated Eric Norris, who oversees Albemarle's. lithium operations.
Fernandez, the U.S. State official, anticipates increasing minerals. demand to offset present international oversupplies, however acknowledged. that miners, in the meantime, remain in a bind.
We need to find methods to weather the storm, Fernandez stated.
TRANSPARENCY
Since January, world leaders have taken a series of steps to. offset China's market control.
President Joe Biden imposed tariffs in May on critical. minerals produced in China, stating ( metals) rates are unjustly. low since Chinese business don't require to worry about a. revenue.
Jim Chalmers, Australia's treasurer, in February said. federal governments should consider support for a distinguished. global trading market for resources produced to higher. ESG requirements.
Chrystia Freeland, Canada's deputy prime minister, in April. stated Ottawa would fight the discarding of crucial minerals by. China, Indonesia and others.
The Chinese mission to the United Nations did not respond to. a request for comment. China has in the in 2015 prohibited exports. of graphite and other metals.
Numerous U.S. senators from both parties have said they are. considering legislation to offer rate insurance for metals,. comparable to a government insurance coverage program for crops, according. to Senate aides. Such a relocation would guarantee miners a cost for. their metals, despite market conditions.
Car manufacturers have been moving very carefully as this pattern for. green prices premiums progresses, conscious that consumers are. hesitant to pay more for EVs.
General Motors, the biggest U.S. car manufacturer, thinks. important minerals should be produced sustainably however does not. want to pay a premium out of concern that it will be unable to. take on Chinese competitors, according to a source straight. involved in the business's minerals procurement.
GM informed it needs providers to adhere to high. requirements, a stance echoed by Volkswagen, BMW and Stellantis.
Tesla and Ford, which is developing an. Indonesian nickel processing plant with Huayou Cobalt and PT. Vale Indonesia, did not respond to ask for. remark.
EXCHANGES
The London Metal Exchange (LME) stated it has actually gotten. positive market feedback regarding its move to price. sustainable nickel. Its partner Metalshub, a German online. metals auction platform, sold 144 metric lots of low-carbon. nickel in May and prepares to publish a matching price when. there are more deals.
Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, a UK-based service provider of. critical minerals pricing and data, has launched green metals. pricing contracts, with each rate derived from how a mining. business complies with 79 requirement that Criteria stated reflect high. production requirements.
You will not have the ability to ensure by any stretch of the. creativity a non-China supply of particular metals unless you're. happy to pay some degree of a premium for that product, stated. Criteria's Daniel Fletcher-Manuel.
That's the message that Jervois has actually been pressing,. unsuccessfully.
Eventually, ESG has an expense, said Bryce Crocker, the. business's CEO. It's a beneficial cost..
(source: Reuters)