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Oil need set to peak by 2029, significant supply glut looms, IEA states

Global oil demand will peak by 2029 and begin to contract the following year while the U.S. and other nonOPEC nations contribute to provide, the International Energy Company stated on Wednesday, resulting in a significant surplus this years.

The IEA, which recommends industrialised nations, moved forward the date for peak oil demand after having said in October that it would take place by 2030.

Its view contrasts with the outlook of oil manufacturer group the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC),. which sees demand increasing long after 2029 in part due to a slower. shift to cleaner fuels and has actually not predicted a peak.

Oil need growth will plateau at 105.6 million barrels per. day (bpd) by 2029, the Paris-based IEA stated in a yearly report,. before contracting slightly in 2030 as electrical cars and truck usage rises,. effectiveness enhances and power generation moves far from oil.

The IEA also sees supply capability hitting nearly 114 million. bpd by 2030, or a complete 8 million bpd above forecasted demand,. with non-OPEC+ producers led by the U.S. making up. three-quarters of the capacity boost.

This report's forecasts, based on the latest information, reveal a. significant supply surplus emerging this decade, recommending that oil. companies might wish to make sure their company methods and. strategies are gotten ready for the changes taking place, IEA Executive. Director Fatih Birol said.

Need development will be driven mainly by emerging economies in. Asia, particularly by roadway transportation in India, along with jet. fuel and petrochemicals in China.

The forecast of a supply excess will have larger. reverberations, not least for OPEC nations that depend on oil. for a huge part of government income, the IEA said.

Extra capability at such levels could have significant. effects for oil markets-- including for manufacturer economies. in OPEC and beyond, in addition to for the U.S. shale industry.

GAP WITH OPEC

In a separate report on Wednesday the IEA cut its oil. need growth forecast for 2024 by 100,000 bpd to 960,000 bpd,. pointing out slow consumption in industrialized nations.

A muted economy and uptake of green energy must bring 1. million bpd growth next year, it added.

Those forecasts fall far below those of OPEC, which on. Tuesday kept its outlook for 2024 need growth at 2.25 million. bpd and 1.85 million bpd for 2025.

The gap in between the IEA and OPEC on 2024 growth is now even. wider than it was earlier this year, when a analysis. discovered that the 1.03 million-bpd difference in February was the. most significant considering that a minimum of 2008.

Birol, speaking with press reporters in a webinar after the report's. release, called the divergence with Vienna-based OPEC on demand. projections something notable.

Naturally we will see at the end of the year, he stated. We. take a look at the information, every amount, every day, to give the best. info for choice makers and the public.

(source: Reuters)