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US delays ruling on Gulf of Mexico Whale Protections by Two Years
According to a court filing, an agreement reached with environmental groups will allow the Trump administration to delay the final rule by two years. The rule would protect the endangered Rice's Whale in the Gulf of Mexico oil and gas drilling area. The National Marine Fisheries Service of the U.S. Commerce Department and the green group Natural Resources Defense Council have agreed to give the government agency until 15 July 2027 to finalize the geographical area that is considered critical to the survival of the Rice’s whale. The agreement was filed with the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia, on July 3, and it was seen by Monday. The agreement stated that "NMFS is continuing to work diligently on this complex Final Rule." "NMFS requires more time to evaluate the science and analyze the impact on the Rule," the agreement said. NMFS will coordinate its efforts in this process with the academic and scientific communities. NMFS officials could not be reached for comment. NRDC also did not have any immediate comment. It represents the environmental group Healthy Gulf, in a legal case over the designation of so-called "critical habitat". The oil and gas companies of the region have welcomed the delay. The former administration of Joe Biden in 2023 had proposed restrictions for drillers in the northern Gulf. We strongly support the decision of extending the deadline for the finalization of the Rice's Whale critical habitat. Erik Milito said that extending the deadline was both necessary and responsible, given the amount of work needed to make this rule perfect. (Reporting and editing by Mark Porter, David Gregorio and Nichola Groom)
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Zelenskiy appoints new Prime Minister, and taps official who spearheaded US mineral deal
On Monday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy asked Yulia Shvyrydenko to head a new cabinet. This set the stage for an upcoming political reshuffle in Ukraine's ongoing war with Russia. Zelenskiy suggested that Ukraine's Prime Minister, Denys Schmyhal, be appointed as Defence Minister, as he described him as having the qualifications to do such a job. The nominations require parliamentary approval. They came at a time when diplomatic efforts to end the four-year war have stagnated and Ukraine is trying to revitalize its cash-strapped economic system and build up an indigenous arms industry. Zelenskiy, writing on X, said: "We... discussed tangible measures to boost Ukraine’s economic potential, increase support programs for Ukrainians and scale up our local weapons production." He said that "in pursuit of this objective, we are initiating transformation of the executive in Ukraine", adding that he proposed Svyrydenko to lead the government, and "significantly renew" its work. Svyrydenko is a 39-year-old economist who has been serving as the first deputy prime minister of Ukraine since 2021. She was a key player in the recent negotiations of a mineral deal with the United States. In his video nightly address, Zelenskiy described Shmyhal as having "vast" experience that is "valuable for the position of Minister of Defence of Ukraine." He said: "This is the exact area where maximum resources are concentrated, as well as maximum tasks and responsibility." Shmyhal is the prime minister of Moldova since March 2020. He has been in office since 1991, when the country gained independence from Moscow. Zelenskiy had suggested that Rustem Umerov, the Ukrainian ambassador to Washington Zelenskiy said could be appointed last week, would replace him. Ukraine depends on its Western allies for financial assistance to finance social and humanitarian spending, as the majority of state revenues are used to fund the army and the domestic weapon production. FINANCING ARMS INDUSTRIES Ukrainian officials also called on Kyiv’s partners to assist in financing the country’s arms industry. This could be done through joint defense projects. Zelenskiy stated that Ukraine will continue to "increase production of its weapons and develop their own defence projects - our own Ukrainian as well as jointly with our partners". Svyrydenko wrote on X that she would deregulation, reduce bureaucracy and protect businesses, as well as reduce non-critical spending, to "concentrate all state resources" towards defence and post-war reconstruction. She said, "The state apparatus does not have the right to waste our country's resources and potential." "Ukraine should be one of the most powerful economies in Europe." (Reporting and writing by Dan Peleschuk, with editing by Kevin Liffey; Gareth Jones; Ron Popeski, Cynthia Osterman, and Cynthia Osterman).
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Sudanese RSF forces killed almost 300 in North Kordofan according to activists
Sudanese activists reported on Monday that the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces killed nearly 300 people during attacks that began in North Kordofan State on Saturday. RSF is fighting against the Sudanese Army in this area. It's one of the main frontlines in a civil conflict that has been raging since April 2023. The army has gained control over the east and center of the country while the RSF works to consolidate control in the western regions including North Kordofan. Emergency Lawyers, a human rights organization, said in a Monday statement that the RSF attacked several villages around Bara on Saturday. Bara is under the control of the paramilitary. More than 200 people have been killed in Shag Alnom village by arson and gunshots. They said that looting raids in other villages resulted in the deaths of 38 civilians. Dozens more were reported as missing. The group claimed that the RSF had attacked Hilat Hamid the next day and killed 46 people including children, pregnant women, and other vulnerable individuals. According to the United Nations, more than 3,400 people have been forced to flee. Emergency Lawyers, blaming the RSF leadership, said: "It is clear that these villages targeted were empty of military objectives. This makes clear the criminality of these crimes committed in total disregard for international humanitarian law." Human rights groups and the United States have accused RSF of genocide, war crimes and crimes against humanity. The RSF has carried out violent raids on territory that it controls across the country. The RSF leadership has said that it will bring to justice those who are found guilty of such crimes. Sudan's civil conflict has caused the largest humanitarian crisis in the world, causing more than half of the population to go hungry and spreading diseases like cholera throughout the country. The humanitarian response has been stretched by a global cut in aid. (Reporting and editing by Sharon Singleton, Sandra Maler and Nafisa eltahir)
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Draft shows EU wants to cap farming subsidies in budget overhaul
Brussels will propose capping the EU subsidy a single farm can receive every year in an effort to redistribute massive farming subsidies to smaller businesses. A draft European Commission proposal, seen by, revealed this. The document will be part of the Commission’s proposal for the next budget of the European Union, which is due to appear on Wednesday. The EU's massive Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), which provides farming subsidies, is worth approximately 387 billion euro ($451 billion) today. This represents a third the entire budget of the EU for 2021-2027. According to the draft, the Commission's proposal would try to redistribute subsidies to smaller farms by capping the amount of income-based support that they can receive at 100,000 euros per annum. The amount of money paid per hectare would be gradually reduced for those who receive the most. The draft stated that, for example, if a farmer receives area-based income assistance above 20,000 Euros per year, their payments will be reduced by 25%. Payments above 50,000 Euros per year will be cut in half, and payments over 75,000 euro by 75%. It is not the first attempt by Brussels to cap subsidies and limit payments to large landowners or agroindustrial companies. In the previous CAP approximately 80% of payments were made to only 20% of beneficiaries. Previous proposals were rejected by EU countries concerned about their agricultural industries. The new budget for the period 2028-2034 must be approved by the EU countries as well as the European Parliament. A spokesperson for the Commission did not respond immediately to a comment request on the draft. It could be changed before publication. The draft would establish EU-wide, overarching green targets, which farmers must achieve to qualify for subsidies. However, it would also oblige countries to set local, additional conditions. The draft stated that "the new CAP will be a simplified and more targeted Union Common Policy, with greater flexibility for farmers, and a move from requirements to incentives." The draft didn't confirm the size of a new CAP. The core of the new CAP would remain direct income support to farmers. This would be "ring-fenced", meaning that it could not be used for anything else. The proposal would combine the CAP's two-pillar structure to one fund, a move that is opposed by influential European farmers' group COPA-COGECA. ($1 = 0,8574 euros) Reporting by Kate Abnett Editing Tomaszjanowski
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US Judge delays the transfer of Argentina's 51% YPF stake in order to allow an appeal
A U.S. Judge on Monday temporarily halted the enforcement of her order requiring Argentina's 51% stake in the oil and gas company YPF as partial satisfaction of a $16.1 Billion court judgment. The U.S. District judge Loretta Preska, while criticizing Argentina's actions and extending the deadline for the completion of the turn-over by three days until July 17, has pushed back Monday's deadline. She stated that the delay was only to allow Argentina to file a complaint with the 2nd U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals of Manhattan. Argentina filed an Emergency appeal On July 10, the court heard a case. Preska refused to extend the stay. She stated that Argentina "continues its delay and circumvention of its obligations" in relation to the $16.1 billion judgement, citing legislation to prevent the YPF turn over. The Manhattan-based Manhattan judge wrote: "The Republic has abused court accommodations and will not receive additional ones." Requests for comment from an attorney and Argentina's representatives were not immediately responded to. The three-day extension is a temporary relief to the cash-strapped nation, which warned that its economy would be unstable if forced to sell the YPF stake. Argentine president Javier Milei is trying to boost foreign currency reserves, rein in inflation and deal with a heavy debt burden. The dispute arose after Argentina decided in 2012 to take the YPF stake away from Spain's Repsol, without making a bid to minority shareholders Petersen Energia Inversora or Eton Park Capital Management. Burford Capital is representing these shareholders. Burford Capital has stated that it expects to receive between 35% and 73% respectively of Petersen and Eton Park’s damages. Burford's U.S. lawyer and Burford did not respond immediately to requests for comments on the Monday order. Preska has ordered Argentina to pay $1.71 billion and $14.39 billion in September 2023 to Petersen. Argentina appeals this judgment. The U.S. Foreign Sovereign immunity Act protects the YPF shares from being sold. In an emergency appeal, Argentina stated that a YPF turn-over would irreparably damage its sovereignty, violate the international law, and expand U.S. court's power in a wrong way. It said that it would also be unfair to give its controlling stake in country's biggest energy company up now because it would probably be irrevocable, even if they won the case. Burford claimed that Argentina's years of evasion, combined with a commercial immunity exception, was the reason for YPF's turnover. (Reporting and editing by William Mallard, Richard Chang, and Jonathan Stempel from New York)
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Russian rouble, stock market gain after Trump's statement on Russia
The Russian rouble recovered its losses against the dollar, and climbed against China's Yuan after U.S. president Donald Trump warned that he would impose a "very serious tariff" on Russia in 50 days if a deal was not reached on settling pacifically. According to LSEG's data based upon over-the counter quotes, as of 1605 GMT the rouble had fallen 0.2% at 78.10 against the dollar, after reaching 78.75 earlier in the day. The rouble has gained 45% against the US dollar since the beginning of the year, according to LSEG data based on over-the-counter quotes. Trump announced on Monday new weapons for Ukraine and threatened to hit Russian export buyers with sanctions. He expressed frustration at Russian President Vladimir Putin over the lack of progress made in ending the conflict in Ukraine. Artyom Nicholasev, an analyst from Invest Era, said that Trump's performance was below expectations. "He gave the Russian leadership 50 days to come up with an offer and extend the negotiations track. Trump is fond of delaying and extending such deadlines. The rouble gained 0.8% against the Chinese Yuan, which is the most commonly traded currency in Russia. It had fallen by more than 1% Friday. According to the Moscow Stock Exchange, after Trump's remarks, Russian stocks rose by 2.7%. (Reporting and editing by Richard Chang; Gleb Bryanski)
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Britain and Czech Republic will work together to develop small nuclear plants
The UK and Czech Republic announced on Monday that they will explore the possibilities for small modular reactors (SMRs). This partnership could lead to Rolls Royce SMR exporting up to six units into the east European country. Last month, Britain pledged 2,5 billion pounds for the construction of SMRs. It hopes that this will help to increase energy security while helping the country achieve its climate targets and create export opportunities. The SMRs are made in factories with small parts that can be transported by barges or trucks. They are assembled faster and cheaper than large nuclear plants. In a statement issued by the UK Department for Energy Security and Net Zero, which also cited his Czech counterpart, UK Prime Minister Kierstarmer stated: "By working together with our Czech colleagues on small modular reactors we are supporting British engineering, strengthening the industrial base and putting the UK into a leading position for exporting the technologies of tomorrow." Rolls Royce won the contract to build Britain's SMRs last month. Great British Energy, Britain's state owned energy company, is expected to sign the contract and select a location for new plants later this year. Last year, Czech electricity producer CEZ announced that it would acquire a stake in Rolls Royce’s SMR business of around 20%. It also planned to install up to three gigawatts in the country. This is equivalent to six units. Each unit can power approximately one million homes. Starmer and Czech Premier Peter Fiala are hosting a roundtable discussion as part of Fiala's London visit, in order to promote closer links for trade and investment between the two nations. (Reporting by Susanna Twidale, Editing by Aidan Lewis).
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Earnings and tariffs are a focus for the market, as well as inflation data.
MSCI's global index of equity prices edged lower on Monday, while U.S. Treasury rates edged higher. The latest U.S. Tariff threats kept investors on their toes as they awaited inflation readings due later this week and the beginning of the earnings season. After Donald Trump threatened to impose a 30 percent tariff on imports of goods from the European Union, Mexico and Canada starting August 1, the euro briefly fell to its lowest level in almost three weeks. The dollar index remained stable. The threat of tariffs caused European shares to fall on Monday. The EU announced that it would suspend countermeasures against U.S. Tariffs until early August, and continue to push for a negotiated solution. However, Germany's Finance Minister called for a firm response if levies were implemented. This week the U.S. earnings period begins, and the banks are leading the way. According to LSEG, S&P profits are expected up 5.8% compared to the previous quarter. Now, it's all about the earnings season. They don't know what to expect. They want to remain optimistic. Robert Pavlik is a senior portfolio manager with Dakota Wealth, Fairfield, Connecticut. He said that earnings seasons are usually better than expected. However, he also noted that trading values were "a little expensive compared to the 5-year average". The money manager said that people are waiting to see what happens next, given the recent announcements of tariffs. At 10:54 am on Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 53.36 points or 0.12% to 44,318.15, while the S&P500 fell 6.66 points or 0.11% to 6,253.09. The Nasdaq Composite increased 18.05 points or 0.09% to 20,603.58. The MSCI index of global stocks fell 0.12% or 1.07 points to 921.49, while the pan-European STOXX 600 fell 0.26%. POWELL PRESSURE Trump has increased political pressure to ease interest rates more aggressively, despite the fact that U.S. Federal Chairman Jerome Powell had signalled patience on this issue. Kevin Hassett, the White House's economic adviser, warned Trump over the weekend that renovation costs at the Fed headquarters in Washington could be a reason to fire Powell. Trump said that Powell's resignation would be great. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. notes increased by 1 basis point, to 4.433% from 4.423% at the end of Friday. Meanwhile, the 30-year bond's yield rose by 2.2 basis points, to 4.9791%. The yield on the 2-year bond, which is usually in line with expectations of interest rates for the Federal Reserve fell by 1.8 basis points, to 3.896% from 3.914% at late Friday. Investors are waiting for the U.S. consumer prices data for June due Tuesday. They will also be watching for any upward pressure coming from tariffs. The data on producer prices and import prices, which are due this week, will provide a glimpse of the impact that tariffs may have on supply chain costs. Retail sales figures will also give a good indication of consumer health. The dollar index, which measures greenbacks against a basket including the yen, euro and yen, increased 0.09% at 97.98. The dollar rose 0.07% against the Japanese yen to 147.5. The Mexican peso fell 0.65% against the dollar to 18.767. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum is confident that a deal can be reached by the deadline of August. Bitcoin reached the $120,000 mark for the first and last time. It was up by 1.48% to $120,891.36. Oil prices dropped on Monday, after reaching their highest level in the last three weeks. Investors were watching for further U.S. sanction against Russia and tariffs that could affect global supply. U.S. crude dropped 0.64% to $68.01 a barrel. Brent was down to $70.07 a barrel, 0.41% lower on the day. The gold price has stabilized following a three-week high on Monday, as attention was focused on U.S. data and trade negotiations. Silver prices have climbed to their highest level since September 2011, Spot gold dropped 0.41% to $3341.63 per ounce. U.S. Gold Futures increased 0.04% at $3,357.20 per ounce. (Reporting and editing by Christopher Cushing; Sharon Singleton, Ali Williams, and Ali Williams.
QUOTES-Likely market reaction after Iran attacks Israel
Iran warned Israel and the United States on Sunday of a much bigger response if there is any retaliation for its mass drone and rocket attack on Israeli territory on Saturday, as Israel stated the project is not over .
Iran released explosive drones and missiles at Israel in retaliation for a presumed Israeli attack on its consulate in Syria on April 1, a very first direct attack on Israeli area that has stired fears of a larger regional conflict.
Below are analysts' quotes on how financial markets are likely to react to developments.
JANE FOLEY, HEAD OF FX STRATEGY, RABOBANK, LONDON
Outside of gold and oil costs, property rates have actually been pre-disposed to soft-pedal geopolitical news in recent months. This recommends that Israel's success in repelling Iranian rockets will be taken as a reason to decrease threat hostility at the start of the trading week.
That stated, there has actually been a clear increase in geopolitical dangers connected with the Middle East suggesting plenty of scope for volatility in the coming weeks and months.
MICHAEL PURVES, HEAD OF TALLBACKEN CAPITAL ADVISORS
If oil keeps going higher from here, it in fact makes U.S. bond fundamentals a bit even worse by keeping inflation greater for longer and making the Fed's tendency to cut rates even less.
An offsetting element is that whatever happens, there's. going to be anxiety and that's going to keep bonds from. selling too much more.
We have actually had a lot priced into the U.S. equity market. already. On the one-hand, there was a risk-on condition going. into the year and risks will eventually get purchased.
But eventually, why not schedule some earnings when the. newsflow is so unpredictable?
SAMY CHAAR, CHIEF ECONOMIST LOMBARD ODIER, GENEVA
The newsflow has to do with Iran and Israel, so that is going to. be most of (what people will be going over Monday), but we are. still in an environment where we haven't yet digested the U.S. inflation news and what that means for the Fed, and will they be. able to cut rates.
We entered into this weekend of geopolitical tension in the. after-effects of the CPI report. It is a vulnerable market environment. in the short term, however after a wonderful duration, so it is just. fair that there's a little vulnerability.
TINA FORDHAM, CREATOR AND GEOPOLITICAL STRATEGIST, FORDHAM. INTERNATIONAL FORESIGHT, LONDON
The scale of Iran's attack on Israel and the launch from. inside Iran in addition to via proxies is substantial. In terms of. the marketplace response, we began to see commodity prices moving. greater on Friday.
Over the next few days, we are awaiting Israel's. response-- this is the most significant attack on Israel in years. The. threat of a local war has increased meaningfully. The concern. becomes does Israel seek to expand the dispute? That is the. wild card.
I think oil will open greater. Indications that Iran wants to. enact a soft blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is an issue, as. this implies there are potential both supply chain disturbances and. higher oil costs. We have gone into a harmful period ahead of. the U.S. elections.
NICK FERRES, CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER, PERSPECTIVE ASSET. MANAGEMENT, SINGAPORE
I am not going to be an armchair general and pretend that. I have an edge on how the escalation will play out. From our. perch, the more important news for markets last week was the. trend re-acceleration in consumer price inflation and the. implication for the path of future short term rates of interest.
Moreover, disappointment in the information of the results from. JPM and Wells on Friday. Because context, as we have actually kept in mind for. some time, danger settlement in equities is bad in outright. terms and relative to Treasuries. We had actually already decreased our internet. long equity exposure ahead of this over the previous two weeks.
BRIAN JACOBSEN, PRIMARY ECONOMIC EXPERT, ANNEX WEALTH MANAGEMENT,. MILWAUKEE, WISCONSIN
The secret is whether Iran will consider this retaliation a. determined and last reaction, unless Israel chooses to escalate. In 2020, Iran considered its response to the U.S.'s killing of. General Soleimani a determined and equitable response. , if it remains. . tit-for-tat instead of intensifying, then we will likely see a. sigh of relief throughout equities even if oil rates, gold, the. dollar and bonds all embed a danger premium to show the. dispute..
(source: Reuters)